As a general rule Week 1 is always the hardest to forecast. Predicting future outcomes is so often reliant upon our analysis of past results and, well, until opening week is behind us we don't have much to go on in the way of evidence. Plus, perennial losers like the Lions, Jets, and Jaguars haven't realized they suck yet and show up with hope and vigor to games they would otherwise be pummeled in if this were November.
It can be quite misleading.
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| In Week 1, even the Jets bring their best effort. |
Other unforeseen factors always sneak their way into the opening weekend as well, wreaking havoc on fans and bettors alike: Jerry Jeudy dropping game-clinching catches like hot potatoes; Phyllis Rivers being out dueled in both throws and facial hair by an upstart named Gardner Minschew; traditionally strong home field advantages wiped out by cardboard cutouts and pumped-in crowd noise. All of these happened one year ago this week, and sans for Minschew's sweet mustache, let's hope everything else rights itself in 2021.
So. Now that I've laid the foundation for excuse should my picks be sabotaged by any of the above, let's get down to brass tacks. For the next 18 weeks there are games to predict and money to be made. As Montell Jordan once crooned, "This is how we do it!"
Dallas (+8.5) at Tampa Bay
Between Dak Prescott's gruesome leg break, Ezekiel Elliott and his entire O-Line being injured, and Mike McCarthy clapping way less than Jason Garret after every single play, the Cowboys' 2020 campaign was nothing short of disastrous.
2021 started much better for America's Team until HBO's "Hard Knocks" documented Jon Fassel giving his special teams a lesson on what happens with a vasectomy and the importance of "getting reconnected." Somewhere, Tom Landry was not laughing.
Tampa on the other hand... that was impressive.
Still, in the past 10 years, the defending champions are 6-4 overall in Week 1 of the new season with a .500 record against the spread.
Those odds suggest a slight nod toward a Bucs win, but a mere coin flip on whether or not they'll cover the points. I'll pick Dallas to keep it closer than 9 points. Also, there's a vasectomy joke to squeeze in here but I cut it out.
Philadelphia at Atlanta (-3)
Even in the most parallel of worlds, a Julio Jones-less Matt Ryan is better than Joe Flacco, Jalen Hurts, and Nick Mullens combined. Atlanta not only wins, but covers what I think is a very generous spread for the dirty birds at home.
New York Jets at Carolina (-5)
Picking this beauty of an opener hinges on the answer to a very key question for the men in green tights. Let's review a countrywide poll of Jets fans for guidance:
LA Chargers at Washington (+1)
In a matchup sure to make ol' Norv Turner clinch his butt cheeks, the young and talented Chargers of LA travel 3,000 miles from home and will probably play in front of more Bolts fans than had this one been contested in SoCal.
Washington, on the other hand, begins the 17-game farewell tour of that regal and classic nickname that has stood the test of time: "Football Team."
Factoring in the disadvantage of a west coast team traveling back east, plus having to face the guy I think wins Defensive Player of the Year this year (Chase Young), and at a time (Week 1) when defenses are normally ahead of the offenses, I like the home underdogs here in an early upset.
San Francisco at Detroit (+7.5)
Examining this game involves the weighing of two conflicting facts:
- San Francisco is far and away the better squad here.
- The Lions don’t yet realize how shitty they will be this year, and they have also forgotten how shitty they were last year.
Its asinine to say out loud, but I kind of like the Lions to keep it within 8 points this Sunday. A new quarterback, plus the excitement of playing the opener in front of fans who have not yet covered their heads in shame with paper bags just might be enough to lose without getting annihilated. That will come next week in Green Bay.
San Fran wins the game, but if betting I would take Detroit plus the eight points on a backdoor cover. Lions are my pick against the spread.
Pittsburgh at Buffalo (-6.5)
It's been almost three decades since the Bills ruled the roost in the AFC, and last year they were four quarters away from returning to the Super Bowl.
It's been nearly just as long since we've seen the Steelers look as Pillsbury-soft (not counting their quarterback's physique) as they were last January when Cleveland almost hung a 50 burger on them in the playoffs.
From coaches to quarterbacks, these teams feel like two ships passing in the night. Buffalo is the pick.
Arizona at Tennessee (-3)
This game might have more fantasy scoring than if my Dungeons & Dragons League threw down cards at the Moonlight Bunny Ranch & Brothel. Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Green (now in Arizona), Ryan Tannehill, Derek Henry, Julio Jones (now in Tennessee), and A.J. Brown, to name a few, should all score as easily as if they were in a 5¢ whore house with a pocket full of nickels.
The addition of Julio Jones on the outside should effectively stop opposing defenses from focusing all their energy on Henry for once, and I tend to think he is about to go even more bonkers in 2021 than he did in 2020 — if that’s even possible. If he started Week 1 with a couple hundred yards here I wouldn't be surprised.
Tennessee wins and covers the spread in what I think might be the game of the day.
Jacksonville at Houston (+3)
Now moving on from the game of the day…. to this. Sigh.
Aside from Urban Meyer's and Trevor Lawrence's much ballyhoo'd pro debuts, there’s not much to see here. It’s still Jacksonville.
That being said Houston has been running a 20-month-long Blue Light Special, selling off every superstar that isn’t a frequenter of the Houston-area massage parlor scene, leaving them as the biggest dumpster fire in all of sports. Hmm, when I put it that way, they might have beaten Jacksonville at their own game already.
What to do, what to do? Houston, for reasons I can’t explain other than The Bird doesn’t like to bet on rookie quarterbacks on the road, is my pick. I'll go disconnect my cable box now so that I don’t accidentally watch this one.
Minnesota at Cincinnati (+3)
It's hard to remember but for a short while last season Cincinnati actually played some pretty competent football for the first time since Boomer and Co. were Ickey Shuffling their hearts out in the Queen City. Joe Burrow was 10th in passing and Joe Mixon was running like the second coming of Corey Dillon before injuries got the better of the Bungles.
Minnesota meanwhile, if not for Dalvin Cook's badassery and Kirk Cousins' gazillion dollar contract, almost appear to me like a team on the verge of a rebuild.
I like the Bengals, getting points at home, to ride the energy of Joe Burrow's return to an outright victory. It’s my juiciest hunch of the weekend. Beware!
Seattle (-2.5) at Indianapolis
I'd be lying if I said Indianapolis' preseason didn't conjure up nightmares of my beloved Broncos' 2020 off-season. The terms "snake bitten" and "injury bug" do indeed make good bed fellows.
Before Carson Wentz’s August foot injury the Vegas wise guys had the Titans and Colts at dead even odds to win the AFC South. After Wentz's surgery, Tennessee was all but crowned division champs on Vegas betting boards while the Horseshoes fell like a blind roofer. Backup Sam Ehrlinger then went down for 6 weeks and I now hear rumors the Colts are looking to sign Bert Jones to take snaps this September. If Wentz can’t go, it’ll be Jacob Eason. Who?
Seattle is the play.
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| The Indianapolis quarterbacks’ room as Colts QB’s watch film of the Seahawks in preparation for Sunday's game. |
Miami (+3) at New England
If last season showed us anything in the AFC East, it's that New England without Tom Brady not only made the Patriots seem human again, but actually made them borderline unwatchable. In parallel, Buffalo and Miami instantly became viable division challengers.
It was kind of like that time when Charlie Sheen left Two & A Half Men to go drink tiger blood and harass women, and all of a sudden How I Met Your Mother and The Good Wife saw their ratings go up.
Miami surely recognizes the chance to start a new season ahead in the ratings, and I really like the idea of their underrated defense starting things off against a baby-faced rookie in Mac Jones.
I think the Fins’ former Alabama quarterback fairs better than the Pats’ former Alabama quarterback and Miami not only covers the spread, but wins this game outright.
Denver(-2.5) at New York Giants
Upon first look when the schedule came out, I had this one pegged as the drunken sailor matchup of the week. Then Fanny Pack Vic replaced his young and zealous, interception-prone QB with the supposedly steady-eyed veteran Teddy Bridgewater. Now us fans on the Bronco Jolly Roger are lead to believe the football will be cared for in Denver like a newly-swaddled baby and this ship is yet again on the right course. We shall see.
The Giants, however, are not as lucky. Daniel Jones remains the signal caller, along with his penchant for forcing throws, taking bad sacks, and fumbling in ways that would make Mark Sanchez proud.
I really dislike picking Denver in games that involve traveling back east as they have been historically bad in this situation. That being said, in a battle against a team with a mistake-prone QB who is missing his #1 WR, #1 TE and possibly his #1 RB, its normally safe to bet on the other team’s defense.
Broncos by a field goal seems doable. And if it isn’t, then Lord help me.
Green Bay (-4) at New Orleans
As a Bronco lover and a romantic, I followed #12's every move this summer with a fairy tale heart. Aaron Rodgers in orange and blue. Dragons slayed. Happily ever after. Sigh. I even rooted for him and... (hold please, while I swallow the little bit of vomit that just came up) Bryson DeChambeau in this summer's The Match. Blechh!
Then proverbial midnight struck and it all reverted to a pumpkin whilst I was left on one knee, holding Princess Aaron's glass slipper as she retreated to the magical forests of Frozen-Tundra Land. Bippity, boppity, Boo.
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I haven’t felt such a depressingly low rate of return on my emotional investment since Y2K came and went without ever getting to use my bunker and end-of-times Chef Boyardee stash.
Begrudgingly I’ll take the Pack to win and cover. If you need me though I’ll be over on another channel, all scorned and watching my Broncos while sipping Orange Crush from this glass shoe nobody wanted.
Cleveland at Kansas City (-6)
Some words of caution to anyone drinking the Brownie kool-aid after the plain helmets snapped their 27 year playoff win drought last year:
A) Don't do that. Drinking anything mixed with water from the shores of Lake Erie will cause unruly hair growth and have you looking like Bernie Kosar in a week.
B) Cleveland hasn't won a season opener since The Bird was reading What to Expect While You're Expecting books and boring his friends and family with flow charts of possible baby names. Jeff Garcia was Cleveland's quarterback and the year was 2004. Jesus.
The Chiefs, coming off of 2+ seasons of beating everyone's ass and playing in Super Bowls will win easily and cover this spread.
Chicago at LA Rams (-7.5)
Let's see. The Rams roll out a brand new Defensive Coordinator in Raheem Morris who is surely looking to make a statement in his first game in a new job for his new team. He has a tool bag consisting of recently signed $65M Leonard Floyd looking to build on last year's career year, a re-energized all pro CB in Jalen Ramsey, and the baddest SOB currently taking downs in the NFL, Aaron Donald.
The Bears will trot out either: A rookie QB making his NFL debut on the road in primetime... or... Andy Dalton.
Sheesh. Aaron Donald alone will be drooling with levels of anxiety and rage not seen since Taylor Swift's last break up. I'll be surprised if the Bears can score, let alone keep it closer than a touchdown. Pick the Rams and cash in.
Baltimore at Las Vegas (+4.5)
I really struggle when it comes to saying anything charming about the Raiders. They open their brand new home this Monday night and their first guests are one of only four current teams to have made the playoffs in each of the last three seasons.
Personally, I hope Lamar Jackson and the Ravens leave a turd in the water tank.
That being said, The Bird is nothing if not a polite guy at heart, so I did get a housewarming gift for the Silver & Black:
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| The Bird hopes Lamar leaves an upper decker on his way out. |
I think the home team probably shows up well this opening game, and adding 4.5 points proves the Vegas odds-makers just down the block are friendly new neighbors. Baltimore may still ruin the christening with a win here, but I'll pick the Raiders to keep it within 4. That’s as charming as it gets, Raiders.
Until next week football fans.... Happy NFL Season!
Current Season Against the Spread: 0-0-0
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