Halloween Edition: The Bird’s Week 8 NFL Picks & Random Broncos Tirade

Lucky for Vic Fangio I had jury duty last week. As a result I fell a bit behind on my real job and did not have time this week to type out my soliloquy on the state of the Denver Broncos. Trust me when I say, such a summary of invectives will require it’s own blog post when I get to it. Overruled. 

Redirect…

All Hallows' Eve is upon us, which means NFL fans everywhere can finally dress like this and not have to explain themselves to the wife:

Mrs. Bloodaxe: "Babe, are you guys heading to Home Depot?"
Mr. Bloodaxe: "No, honey. It's actually Halloween this time."

 

The Raiders and Ravens are both Jehovah’s Witnesses and will not be partaking in this weekend's festivities.

Let’s carve out the Week 8 picks! 

Green Bay (+6.5) at Arizona

In what may be the best thing we’ve seen on a Thursday night since NBC was rolling out a sitcom orgy of Family Ties, Cheers, and Night Court, the Pack and Cardinals give us 2021’s version of Must See TV.

The Packers will be without Davante Adams, which makes the Arizona Cardinals the only humans on this planet besides Big Pharma to benefit from a case of Covid. Yet in a world where I cannot fathom Arizona going 17-0, I have to start looking for games on the schedule where a Redbirds loss seems plausible. I have news for you: there are not many out there.

I was more than tempted to pick against Arizona here, but with the loss of Adams Green Bay is missing the guy who accounts for 70% of Rodgers' targets and 49% of the team's receiving yards. That’s huge. I do think they probably cover the six points, but Arizona should get the win in what will be a desert thriller.

Cardinals 34  Packers 31

Cincinnati (-10) at New York Jets

Last week the Bengals beat the Ravens in impressive fashion. 

Now follow me here: the Ravens have beaten the Chargers and Chiefs but have lost to the Bengals and Raiders. The Raiders beat the Steelers and Ravens but lost to the Chargers. The Chargers beat the Raiders, Chiefs and Browns, but lost to the Ravens. The Steelers beat the Buffalo Bills but also lost to the Raiders and Bengals. The Bills beat the Chiefs and lost to the Steelers and Titans. The Chiefs lost to the Ravens, Chargers, Bills, and Titans. The Titans beat the Bills and Chiefs... yet lost to the Jets. 

Therefore, the Jets are the team to beat in the AFC. Follow the science, people.

Since I have been steadfast in not following any science lately, and because this game will not be competitive, Cincinnati is the easy pick.

Bengals 35  Jets 3 

 

Miami at Buffalo (-13.5)

In 6 losses this season the Dolphins have been out scored by 81 points. Divided out, that’s 13.5 points per game. And you wonder how the Vegas algorithms work. 

Last time they played the Bills, it was an embarrassing 35-0 shellacking at home in front of all 900 of their fans. This one will be in Orchard Park against the best team in the AFC coming off two weeks rest and a heartbreaking loss the last time they laced them up.

I think a rested and eager Buffalo team is the easy play here.

Bills 36  Dolphins 20

Carolina at Atlanta (-3)

Matt Ryan has 10 TDs and just 1 INT in his last 4 games. I'm not sure Sam Darnold has anything close to this yet in his career. Still one more week before the Panthers get Christian McCaffery back so a rising Atlanta team is my pick.

Falcons 24  Panthers 13

Pittsburgh (+3.5) at Cleveland

Cleveland is basically playing with an entire offense of either really banged up starters or only sort of banged up backups. Pittsburgh meanwhile has found some steam and is coming off a two week rest.

The Browns' starters gather for this week's offensive meetings.

 

Cleveland will be extra motivated at home and probably pulls out a close win, but I like Pittsburgh getting points if you have to bet it. Part of me can smell a Steeler upset so long as T.J. Watt has his way and their quarterback eats his Wheaties, but while Watt can be counted on to have a big game, Big Ben is just as likely to trade his Wheaties for a double burger. 

Cleveland wins. Pittsburgh covers.

Browns 30  Steelers 27

Tennessee (+1.5) at Indianapolis

The last time these teams played the Colts had three red zone trips that netted just two field goals in what became a 25-16 loss in Nashville. Carson Wentz was still walking on double-wrapped glass ankles and the horseshoes were 0-3. Since then the Colts have gone 3-1 and if you consider the lone loss in that stretch was the night they miraculously blew a huge lead on Monday Night Football to the Ravens, we could be talking about the hottest team in the AFC here.

That being said, Tennessee has averaged just under 33 points per game in winning three straight by an average of 2+ touchdowns ever since their inexplicable loss to the Jets in Week 4. Two of those three wins were statement-makers against Kansas City and Buffalo, and one could argue these guys are the hottest team in the AFC.

Ladies and gentlemen, we have here what Keith Jackson could only describe as, "Ooh Nellie we got a dandy."

Don't bet this one unless you have the amygdala and prefrontal cortex of a base jumper. Just watch it and enjoy.

Titans 30  Colts 27

Philadelphia at Detroit (+3.5)

Despite pulling off two fake punts AND recovering an onside kick last Sunday, Detroit still found a way to lose. Clearly they are doing all they can to satisfy the football Gods. Also clearly, more proof that Gods of any kind do not like Detroit. However, because I am a stout practitioner of the Law of Averages, I continue to throw my shillings at these lovable losers. This week is no different:

Lions 27  Eagles 24

San Francisco at Chicago (+4)

Garoppolo vs. Fields. Fields vs. Lance. Lance vs. Dalton. Freddy vs. Jason...

Not since a Kyle Orton-vs-Tim Tebow match up that I witnessed many years ago while watching through trembling fingers has there been a game with such scary quarterback goings on.

The last time we saw something this scary, Kyle Orton
was out-Antichristing Tim Tebow in a 7-3 nail biter .

 

The trouble for both of these teams is, no opposing coaching staff is going to lay awake sweating at night wondering if you are going to be starting Justin Fields or Andy Dalton or Jimmy Garoppolo or an under utilized Trey Lance. That, and for the most part both teams suck this year.

Sophie’s Choice strikes again.

Since the Bears just saw their survivor-ability chances go up with the announcement that head coach Matt Nagy will have to stay away from the sidelines with the Covid, I guess I'll take Chicago here. Confidence: Low.

Bears 17  49'ers 16

 

Los Angeles Rams (-14.5) at Houston

I think anytime a 6-1 team is playing a 1-6 one, the 6-win team should come away victorious. When the 1-6 team is also Houston, you can expect a blowout. Rams roll.

Rams 36  Texans 13

Jacksonville (+3.5) at Seattle

With that trip to London followed by the bye week, have you noticed Urban Meyer hasn't taken any lap dances from pretty co-eds lately? This must stand for something.

I'll pick Seattle solely on the laurels that they are not going to fall to 0-4 at home, but Jacksonville covers as 3+ underdogs.

Seahawks 19  Jaguars 16

New England at Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5)

Did you know that a Mac Jones led team has never lost to the Chargers? Yep. They are currently 0-0. But soon to be 0-1. Likewise, Justin Herbert has yet to lose to the same team twice in his young career. Since the Bolts lost last season to the Pats at Foxboro, this must mean Herbert’s team is destined to prevail. 

Chargers 38  Patriots 17

Tampa Bay (-4.5) at New Orleans 

At 6-1 and 4-2 all of a sudden this is not such an easy pick. Still, I will take Tom Brady to win by at least 5 pts over Jameis Winston and a Saints team that likely has an inflated sense of self-value after beating three average-to-crappy teams in New England, Washington and Seattle.

Tampa Bay is neither average nor crappy. 

Buccaneers 35  Saints 24

Washington (+3) at Denver

While it is true Washington seems increasingly incapable of scoring more than 10 points on any given Sunday, it is equally true that playing the Broncos is a magical elixir to all ailing offenses. I can't trust any team who just lost to Cleveland’s backups, let alone one who’s head coach continues to be out-smarted by everyone from an interim first-timer to a former special teams guy still in his head coaching infancy. Consider some of the men who sit at the NFL coaches table:

• Arizona has a coach who came in right after his team drafted Josh Rosen as their QB of the future. Cliff Kingsbury immediately enforced his coaching prowess and said, "Nope. I want Kyler Murray." They blew it up on his foresight and now have the best team in the league.
  
• Philadelphia's coach spent 5 minutes this week explaining his team's lack of results with astute contextual reinforcement, leadership, insight, and vision of a bigger picture.
• The Chargers’ youthful head coach provided a response to the John Gruden situation with sage words, integrity, new-generation awareness and verbal salve toward an entire culture of hurting people. His team plays like the very reflection of a group of men who respect their leader.
• Sean McVay inspires the Rams with a child-like passion for the sport, a brotherly love for his players, and a keen sense of tactics and strategy that seem light years advanced from my father's NFL.
• Cleveland, Cincinnati, San Francisco, Detroit, Green Bay... all have young leaders of men intent on doing things in new and refreshing ways.
• Indianapolis, Tennessee, Buffalo... all rising franchises who have recently installed war-generals at the helm who know how to go into the gridiron trenches and lead without fail, strategize without doubt, and adjust with the shifting winds of battle.

Denver has a guy who steps to the podium every Monday morning and says brilliant things like "We all need to be better." 

We all need to be better?  Whoaaa there, Don Shula.

I guarantee in this guy's living room there is still a VCR on top of the tv that has been flashing "12:00 AM" for the past 27 years because he hasn't figured it out yet.

This guy...

 

I'm going to pick Denver to win simply to remind myself that I am still a fan, and because I'll be in the stands and I have a way of imparting my will towards wins for the men in orange. But there’s a better-than-50%-chance Fanny Pack Vic ruins it for all of us again. Washington covers the spread in a game that will surely disgust me throughout.

Broncos 21  Washington 20

Dallas (-1.5) at Minnesota

If Dak plays, Dallas is my pick. 

If Dak doesn’t play, Minnesota is my pick.

Dak-Man Fever

Cowboys 27  Vikings 24

 

New York Giants at Kansas City (-9.5)

I'm actually starting to think that Tampa Bay not only won the Super Bowl last year, but that they broke the Chiefs in the process.  I also have a good buddy who drafted all Chiefs for his fantasy team, which happens to be named "Kiss of Death," and maybe he deserves all of the credit. Either way, KC is a straight up enigma right now and I can't stop watching with glee.

That being said, New York is about to feel the wrath of an embarrassed team looking to beat the crap out of somebody just to feel relevant again.

Chiefs 49  Giants 23

Bird. Dropped. Happy Halloween!

Last Week Straight Up Winners: 9-4

Current Season Total Straight Up Winners: 75-32

Last Week Against the Spread: 8-5

Current Season Total Against the Spread:  60-45-2

Oh, Say Can You See: The Bird’s Week 7 Picks

I found a guy who’s been reading my blog and thinks similarly about Detroit:

What does your dad have against the Detroit Lions?

Click: Thad Ranger. This guy gets it!

The Bird is twelve games in the positive betting against the spread so far, and a very bloated 38 games above .500 picking outright winners. 

Buffalo, Dallas, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, Minnesota and the LA Chargers all get a spa day this Sunday. 

Now, on to Week 7! 

Denver at Cleveland (-1.5)

Cleveland is a team without Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, and who’s quarterback is hobbling around these days like Bernie Kosar with a case of hemorrhoidal flare up.

That being said, Denver has scarred the fan and the bettor in me this month. For the third straight week they enter a game in which I think, given the circumstances, they can and maybe even should win. 

Big Ben having the worst year of his career? No problem. Raiders mired in the chaos of incriminating emails worse than the Benghazi files? Bring it. All the Browns key offensive players hurt and Case Keenum being handed the keys to the Mutts Cuts wagon? Well…

At this point I’m conditioned to question Denver’s ability to take advantage of such things. Sadly, the realist in me says anytime Vic Fangio goes up against a well-coached team, the well-coached team should be the pick.

Browns 27  Broncos 23

Carolina (-2.5) at New York Giants

What’s the old saying? “You can put lipstick on a pig but at the end of the day Sam Darnold is still your quarterback?”

Sans for a trip to Arizona in mid-November, any capable team with Carolina’s upcoming schedule would be readying themselves for a 6-1 or 5-2 run over the next seven weeks. The question is: are the Panthers a capable team?

When Christian McCaffrey returns in two weeks the answer is probably yes. Either way, the New York Giants are so bad right now it may not matter this week.

Panthers 20  Giants 16

Atlanta (-2.5) at Miami

Atlanta has looked impressive in their two wins, although I’m not sure it counts if you do it against the Jets and Giants. Lucky for them though, while the Dolphins do not hail from the Meadowlands, they did just get back from another continent and the league didn’t even have the courtesy to give them a bye week to recover. This seems completely unfair to me, but what do I know.

I’ll bet Atlanta here on the merit that they are coming off a two week rest and only had to hop a 75 min flight to Florida for this one. The Fins meanwhile, just took a 14-hour round tripper to Tottenham and back and couldn’t even beat the freaking Jaguars.

Falcons 29  Dolphins 23

Washington at Green Bay (-7.5)

We’ve reached the part in this week’s blog where I calmly remind everyone to never bet against Aaron Rodgers with a chip on his shoulder. Lay the points and move along. 

Packers 27  Washington 17

Cincinnati (+6.5) at Baltimore

The Bengals are 4-2 and just creamed the same Lions team that the Ravens needed a 66 yard field goal to beat. Yet after 40 years of watching NFL football, it is so ingrained in me that the Bengals can never possibly be for real that I placed my shillings on Detroit last Sunday. And you know what? I believed it!

Meanwhile, the Ravens are so explosive it’s hard to discount what’s going on near the shores of the Chesapeake. In fact, we haven’t seen these types of fireworks out of Baltimore since Fort McHenry was bombarded and Francis Scott Key wrote a song about it. 

1812: the last time Baltimore saw this much excitement.

 

I still don’t believe Cincy can go into Baltimore and cover six points here. Baltimore wins by at least a TD. If I’m wrong again on the Bengals, you all can kick me in the junk one time, for free.

Ravens 34 Bengals 27

New York Jets at New England (-6.5)

Seven points seems like a lot to give, until you consider you’re giving them to the Jets. This game won’t be that close as there’s no way the Pats are falling to 0-5 at home.

Patriots 24  Jets 13

Kansas City at Tennessee (+5)

It's hard to imagine the Chiefs falling to 3-4. It's just as hard not picturing Derek Henry demolishing a defense that has more holes in it than Larry The Cable Guy's underwear.

Hmmm.

Tennessee is extremely banged up in their secondary, not to mention they are working on a short week in the wake of that emotional victory vs. Buffalo. How costly was Monday night’s gut-wrenching win?

I know the Chiefs always have the ability to hang 40 points in hopes of simply outscoring their opponent, and against a flat and shorthanded defense this might actually happen. But this spread is too high for my Chiefs taste. Titans keep it within the spread.

Chiefs 30  Titans 27

Detroit at Los Angeles Rams (-15)

Reunion week for the two quarterbacks here. The Rams are so hot right now, I just can’t fathom picking them to win by anything less than a couple of touchdowns against a Lions team that God himself hates.

Rams 37  Lions 20

Houston at Arizona (-17)

And since Arizona is the only team hotter than the Rams, and I believe in the Texans even less than I do the Lions, this pick is easy as well. Cardinals by a lot.

Cardinals 40  Texans 17

Philadelphia (+3) at Las Vegas

I would like to say I saw that Raiders win coming, but then I'd have to go back and edit my last blog where I said Denver by 6. It would seem the eye-patchers did exactly what teams do when they lose their racist and misogynistic leader: they played inspired ball and took out all frustrations on their division rival.

Since Philly has had 10 days to rest and prepare, and since Vegas no longer has a Public Relations disaster as a smoke screen, I think I’ll take the points. Raiders probably win, but it will be close enough to bet Philly.

Raiders 23  Eagles 21

Chicago at Tampa Bay (-12)

A close fan of the blog and not-so-close friend of Thad Ranger told me last week he can never trust Tom Brady with covering a spread. Interestingly enough I had just posted an hour earlier about not overthinking it when it comes to laying points with TB12 at the helm.

Click: Betting on Brady Against the Spread

So I looked it up: through last year’s Super Bowl, Big Tom is 201-135-8 ATS in 344 career starts, including the postseason. Had you bet a crisp Benjamin on him in every game he has ever started, you’d be up $4,770.

Similarly, if you had bet a C-note on every one of The Bird’s picks this season, you’d be up $1,200. Since 1,200 is roughly 25% of 4,770, I don’t need Ancestry.com to know I’m a quarter-Brady. 

Someone, fetch me my Uggs!

Buccaneers 34  Bears 21

Indianapolis (+4.5) at San Francisco

San Francisco has had two weeks to soak in the tingly sensation of losing three straight games after a shaky 2-0 start. I don’t know if they’re a 2-3 team that really should be 3-2… or a 2-3 team that could just as easily be 1-4.

The Colts on the other hand, blew a sure win two weeks ago in Baltimore then impressively took out their frustrations last week against the University of Houston. They should probably be 3-3 if not 4-2, and don’t look now but Carson Wentz is starting to gel after the lost time with sprained ankle syndrome this preseason.

I like the home team here, but the spread is tricky for what feels like a field goal game. I wouldn’t bet this one but since I have to pick it… the horseshoes cover.

49’ers 26  Colts 23

New Orleans (-4.5) at Seattle

Geno Smith. 

The Saints have had two weeks to prepare for a quarterback who can usually be scouted by simply watching old newsreels of the Hindenburg.

Freeze-frame of some Geno Smith game tape.

As much as I hate taking a road favorite to cover a spread this hefty, two weeks is more than enough time for Jameis Winston to, uhm… prepare. 

Saints 24  Seahawks 17

Click: What did he say?

Until the next droppings, my friends.  Cheers!

Last Week Straight Up Winners: 10-4

Current Season Total Straight Up Winners: 66-28

Last Week Against the Spread: 9-5

Current Season Total Against the Spread:  52-40-2

Hollywood Nights: The Bird's Week 6 NFL Picks

Ok. Is anyone else starting to feel like the drama we’re seeing this year has been scripted for our viewing pleasure?  Six games were decided on the final play last week, kickers were busier than a one-legged man in a butt-kicking contest, Hail Mary's were being heaved from Washington to California, and coaches were doing everything from sobbing to smiling to being fired.

Where to start…

There's a poignant scene in Ocean's Eleven where Danny Ocean (George Clooney) is talking to his ex-wife Tess (Julia Roberts) about her new love interest and he asks her, "Does he make you laugh?" Unmoved by his too-little-too-late show of concern, she shoots back, "He doesn't make me cry." 

Ouch.

 

This is what Week 5 felt like if it could be summed up in a Hollywood nutshell.

The Bird lost on the Thursday Nighter for the first time this season; a “miss” that quickly became a harbinger of ugliness and heartache all over the place. For the first time I landed in the red, and I feel about as badly about it as Rodrigo Blankenship and the other seven or so kickers who couldn’t toe-punch their way out of a paper sack last week.

Thirteen missed PAT’s, fourteen missed field goals, a 0-yard punt, two punts on the same play, the Bengals comically celebrating a game-winner that they missed, and the Lions smartly eschewing a PAT with :37 seconds remaining to go balls-out for 2 and the win—! Annnd then doing the most Lions thing they could possibly do to lose in miraculous fashion… yet again… 

Top: Does he make you laugh?
Middle: Well?
Bottom: He doesn't make me cry.

 

In more serious matters, Saquon Barkley, Russel Wilson, and JuJu Smith-Schuster all suffered scary injuries. But worst of the weekend, hands down, was John Gruden getting fired for not being a very good human eleven years ago and apparently Marge Schott’ing his way through life ever since.

It was perhaps the saddest, definitely the wackiest, and maybe the most bizarrely comical weekend we’ve ever seen in this league. I can’t speak for the rest of this stuff, but I for one plan to get back on track and kick some ass… through the uprights this time. On to week 6!

(Take note the Falcons, Saints, and 49'ers all have byes and the Jets are on maternity leave this week. Something like that.)

Tampa Bay (-6.5) at Philadelphia

It would seem I have fallen victim to one of the classic blunders, the most famous of which is "Never get involved in a land war in Asia," but only slightly less-known is this: "Never bet against Brady in a game against a far superior team with a far superior quarterback."

Click here: Classic blunder!

Last week I overthought things. This week I'm not even going there.

Buccaneers 31  Eagles 24

 

Miami at* Jacksonville (+3.5)  (*in England)

These two teams have all sorts of bad shit going on. If you have any poo, fling it now.

 

Let's just put them in London for a week and call it a win for Americans everywhere.

Jaguars 12  Dolphins 9

 

Cincinnati at Detroit (+3.5)

The fashion in which the Lions lose games, paired with their residency, only continues to prove that God hates Detroit. That being said, man these guys seem like they are on the brink of winning one soon. And in a game pitting the only team to ever lose on two last second field goals of 50+ yards twice in the same season, against a team who celebrates their own missed field goals, what is one to do? 

Bet on the team whose coach shows up to the post-game presser like he just left a double-billing of The Notebook and Beaches. This guy cares, dammit. And his team is sooo close. Upset, Lions.

Lions 23  Bengals 20

 

Kansas City (-6.5) at Washington

Normally I would explain away last week’s shocking blowout loss at home to Buffalo as nothing more than early season comeuppance from a vengeful Bills team wanting to prove their two losses to KC last year were mere hiccups. Normally I would say the Chiefs will be okay, this was an early season loss and not a late round knockout. Normally I would say the Chiefs are still the class of the AFC. But when this type of in-fighting is going on in your own backyard, maybe things aren’t so okay:

This guy was cold-cocked by a fellow fan. I'm no
Columbo, but anyone dressed like that probably deserved it.

https://www.thebiglead.com/posts/x-factor-ko-video-chiefs-superfan-knocked-out-bills-game-01fhpqb8ah90

Clearly the Chiefs have problems. Clearly their fans don’t know how to cope with said problems. But given the level of embarrassment that Buffalo put on them last week, I sure would hate to be Washington this Sunday. Kansas City will play with pride, they will play with anger, and for the first time in the Mahomes era, they might even harbor a little bit of desperation.

Chiefs 30  Washington 17

 

Minnesota (+1.5) at Carolina

After the hot start, Sam Darnold has brought back nostalgic memories of Steve Burlein by throwing 5 picks in the last two weeks. The Panthers have gone from hot to tepid.

Meanwhile Minnesota remains slightly hotter than tepid, even without Dalvin Cook, and seem to have flipped the mojo around after two unlucky losses to start the season. 

I’ll pick the Purple People Eaters, but I’m keeping an eye on the statuses of Dalvin Cook and Christian McCaffery before totally selling myself on it.

Vikings 28  Panthers 27

Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore (-2.5)

Talk about two teams coming in straight off the fireworks wagon. The Chargers rolled up 47 points and a million yards of offense against the Browns last week, while Lamar Jackson willed his team back from the dead with a 502-yard laser show of a performance while scoring 22 straight points in dramatic fashion against the Colts. (That 502 yards by the way was just Jackson’s output. Gulp.)  

This is like Point Break meets Action Jackson. 

Grab your popcorn for this action thriller.

It’s extremely hard for me to bet against the Chargers right now, but did you know Lamar Jackson has 1,860 yards this season? That’s more than 18 -eighteen!- teams. Wow.

Ravens 33  Chargers 30

 

Houston at Indianapolis (-9.5)

Last week Houston had two missed extra points, a punt that netted zero yards after their punter rocketed the football into the back of his blocker, and they blew a 13-point lead in the last quarter en route to what was just an awful loss. It doesn’t get any worse than this.  

Except…

Last week Indianapolis missed one extra point, two field goals, and blew a 16-point lead in the last quarter en route to an even more awful loss. 

I couldn’t make this shit up if I tried. I’ll pick Indy to self-destruct less than Houston this day. 

Colts 27  Texans 17

 

Los Angeles Rams (-10.5) at New York Giants

It has not yet been decided if Daniel Jones is playing this weekend as the big lumberer continues with having his brain examined for concussion progress.  If he can't go it'll be Mike Glennon for the G-Men, which means...

Up periscope! Mike Glennon and his 9" neck
will peer out from under center for New York.

Saquon Barkley and just about every wide receiver with "NY" on their helmets are also out for this one or at least hurting badly. Being that the Giants are not going anywhere this season as it is, I do not see why they would rush a concussed tackling dummy back onto any field with Aaron Donald on it. Either way and either QB, L.A. should absolutely torpedo these guys.

Rams 41  Giants 16

 

Green Bay (-4.5) at Chicago

So long as Mason Crosby returns to form, or even if he doesn't, I really can't go against Aaron Rodgers these days.

Packers 27  Bears 18

 

Arizona at Cleveland (-3)

I'm just going to go on a hunch here that Arizona isn't going to win forever and Cleveland is still fuming from their fantastic loss in that shootout with L.A.last week.

Plus, if anyone can reverse jinx Kyler Murray back into the K-Train that’s single handedly carrying my fantasy team each week, it’s me. 

Browns 31  Cardinals 28

 

Las Vegas at Denver (-3.5)

I don’t even know what to say here regarding the Raiders. It’s a mess that is as sad as it is messy. Even a Bronco lover like The Bird is feeling some pity for the Raiders this week.

Denver has to take advantage of what amounts to a rudderless and leaking enemy sloop floating helplessly into their harbor. If they don’t set fire to the ship and take every last bit of silver, then Lord help them.

Then again, this is a team who took a Delay of Game penalty on the very first play of the game last Sunday, so maybe the squad who just met their interim head coach 48 hrs ago has the advantage in coaching here. 

It should also be noted: the line never even budged in the wake of the John Gruden fallout which speaks volumes to how anyone outside of the Rocky Mountains feels about Denver. Sigh... I'll bite.

Broncos 26 Raiders 20

Dallas (-3) at New England

For 59 minutes last week, Bill Belichick was losing to a first-year coach with a rookie quarterback on the worst team in the league. And his transformation into that old hag from Throw Momma From the Train is almost complete. 

 

Dallas looks way too hot right now and for the life of me I cannot figure out why they are only favored by 3. My only guess is that they are really favored by 6, but Vegas has factored in 3 points toward New England on the premise that it's New England... and they will likely cheat.

It's hard not to not make the Cowboys my pick here.

Cowboys 27  Patriots 17

 

Seattle at Pittsburgh (-5.5)

Geno Smith is in for Russell Wilson, the Seattle defense is simply atrocious, and Pittsburgh just torched a Top 5 defense for 400 yards with a quarterback who has Whatta Burger running through his veins.

Did I say, “Geno Smith?”

Pittsburgh wins the game and I think covers... but if the spread jumps any higher I'm likely to bet the Seabirds as underdogs. Let's not forget Pittsburgh still looks pretty crappy anytime the Broncos aren't involved.  Tricky game here.

Steelers 24  Seahawks 18

Buffalo at Tennessee (+6)

The Bills are coming off an emotionally charged victory at Arrowhead in which they unleashed a Ralphie Parker-like barrage of pent up anger and fury on the neighborhood/conference bully.

Buffalo goes Ralphie on Kansas City's ass, unleashing
a lifetime of pent up anger through tiny fists of fury.

It’s hard to not jump in the corner of the kid who just beat up Scut Farkus in front of a crowd of horrified onlookers, schoolmates, and his own mother… but the bettor in me can’t ignore what feels like an inflated line because Kansas City had a rare horrible day.

Tennessee at home will be ready, and anytime you have Derek Henry toting the rock, you have a chance to not only control the game, but inflict some pain and wear on the other team’s defense.

They may not win the game outright, but the Titans will keep this one closer than a touchdown.

Bills 31  Titans 27

 

You’ve been Bird dropped. Tell a friend!

Last Week Straight Up Winners: 12-4

Current Season Total Straight Up Winners: 56-24

Last Week Against the Spread: 7-8-1

Current Season Total Against the Spread:  43-35-2

 

I'm telling you.
He definitely deserved it.

Stink Bomb Heard 'Round the World: The Bird’s Week 5 NFL Picks

Hear, ye! Hear, ye! 

It’s that time of year in every season where we send a couple of NFL teams across the pond to prove to our friends in England that our version of football is not only better than theirs, but contains less whining and flopping.

(It should be noted that we are superior to the Brits in whining and flopping too, and we’ll gladly send some NBA over if they’d like to challenge us on that.)

Either way, here in America we reap the benefits this Sunday of Live football with our breakfast and a refreshing new reason to skip church. This is quite literally the most important role the Jets and Falcons will play for any of us this year, so let’s thank them both.

Pinky fingers out, chums, Week 5 is here. Cheerio!

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle (+2)

This pick feels more like hunch and assumption than my usual surefire tactics of research and humor, but there’s merit in my reasoning so bear with me:

The Rams have three easy wins on their schedule after tonight so nothing worse than 6-2 is on the horizon even if they lose. Seattle remains a bit more desperate for a win in my opinion. Plus, more importantly, they are wearing those glowing green jerseys that they have never lost in.

Seattle: when they glow, they're 7-0.

 

Seattle as a home underdog has been a popular play going all the way back to the days of Dave Krieg. Pair that with looking like Kermit the Frog just swam in the Chernobyl Iron Man and I’ll take the Seabirds to cover the points, if not win outright.

Seahawks 31 Rams 30

Atlanta  at* New York Jets (+3)  *in England

The NFL continues to push its brand overseas by sending our worst teams every year to play on dank, rainy soccer pitches in front of scarf-waving hooligans with poor dental hygiene.

These poor mates think they’re having a bit of the American Football with their tea and crumpets, but if anyone ever explained to them that Jets-Falcons is our version a Norwich City-Burnley nill-nill draw played in wheel chairs, there would surely be rioting on the cobblestones.

Oh well. No doubt our forefathers are smiling down from the heavens, knowing that 240 years later we continue to stick it to the redcoats. 

Paying homage to our founding fathers, Roger Goodell crams another stink bomb into the cannon for those oppressors from England. Get a load of the Jets, you over-taxing A-holes!

Anyone betting on a game between these two teams, no matter where it’s played, needs professional help.

Jets bloody cover I suppose. 

Falcons 23  Jets 21

New Orleans (-2.5) at Washington

One thing we know for sure this season: if the Saints look great one week, they are guaranteed to lay a stinker the next week. And so forth. 

Washington, very similarly, has followed every loss with a win and every win with a loss. They are the masters of the 1-game streak.

The collective ying and yang in this game all but guarantees the Saints will look like world beaters again, and Washington is long overdue for a loss coming off their win six days ago. 

Saints 23  Football Team 20

Green Bay (-3) at Cincinnati

I see no reason to not bet on Aaron Rodgers against a team that for two and a half quarters last week couldn't handle Trevor Lawrence. 

Packers 31  Bengals 21

Denver at Pittsburgh (-1)

Let’s start here: no matter how awful the Steelers have looked so far, The Bird learned yet again last week that picking and betting with the heart is never encouraged. The crappy thing concerning this week is, I can’t figure out if the voice in my gut is my heart speaking… or my brain.

I truly believe that Denver is the better team with the better defense and, yes, the better QB even (assuming Roethlisberger is inexplicably allowed to play quarterback again this week). This is my brain telling me that Denver should prevail here. 

Yet, while the Bronco defense has looked like the '85 Bears whenever a rookie quarterback or teams with pictures of dumpster fires on their helmets are involved, they proved last week to be nothing special when the opposing QB dabbles in Mahomesian magic.  Big Ben is certainly closer to dumpster fire than Mahomes or Jackson at this point in his life, but still…

I can’t trust my gut on this one. 

Steelers 24  Broncos 20

Detroit (+9.5) at Minnesota

My constant heckling of Detroit aside, I am one who doesn’t think the Lions have looked that terrible at times this season. They made a harried comeback against the Niners in Week 1, lit up Green Bay for one half in Week 2, then lost on that 66 yard doinker to Baltimore in Week 3.

All of this is explainable, if not forgivable, for a team that at least shows some heart for 3 quarters each Sunday before daggering themselves in the chest in the 4th. Oh, but then they shit the bed for all four quarters last week in Chicago and now I have no idea what to assume. 

Sigh.

I like Minnesota to rebound here after laying an egg last week against Cleveland (seven points??), but since Detroit covers the spread every other week they are due again to back door this thing.

Vikings 28 Lions 20

Tennessee (-4) at Jacksonville

Just when I thought the Titans losing to the Jets was the most embarrassing thing that happened last weekend, Urban Meyer gets busted skipping the team flight home in exchange for some grab-assing on the local college bar scene. Larry Eustachy would be so proud:

Uh oh. Hopefully Coach can convince everyone that the blonde on his lap is Trevor Lawrence.

https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/2021/10/03/video-purportedly-showing-urban-meyer-out-at-bar-goes-viral/

The fact that they still have a head coach might be Jacksonville’s only victory this week. And since all of the closed-door meetings in the Jags’ organization were for Public Relations damage control and everything but the Titans, I’m fairly confident this is going to be all Tennessee.

Titans 30  Jaguars 13

Philadelphia at Carolina (-3)

The Panthers ran into a bit of a buzz saw last week, but with three of their next four games against 1-win teams, there’s no reason to ease up on the gas with Carolina.

Panthers 28  Eagles 14

Miami (+10) at Tampa Bay

The Dolphins are in real danger of falling to 1-4 and all but ruining what started as a very hopeful season. That sort of desperation alone makes me think they might cover 10 points against a Bucs team that certainly doesn’t look like they have all cylinders firing right now.

Tampa Bay wins this one, no doubt. I’ll very reluctantly pick Miami to keep it closer than 10 though.

Buccaneers 29  Dolphins 20

New England (-8.5) at Houston

I didn’t have this rule prior to the start of the season, but never ever take a team quarterbacked by Davis Mills to cover any kind of spread. Even if they were playing against the CU Buffs this would be the rule.

Patriots 24  Texans 9

Cleveland at Los Angeles Chargers (-2)

As things go in the AFC West, the Chargers are sitting about as pretty in 2021 as Big Pharma. Consecutive huge wins against divisional foes have the Bolts in prime jockeying position in the Conference, and if not for a 56 yard FG by Dallas in Week 2 they’d be one of only two undefeated teams remaining. 

Cleveland is also 3-1 but two of their wins have come against a Houston team who just got shellacked 40-0, and Matt Nagy’s traveling quarterback circus otherwise known as the Bears. It also appears that shaky Baker Mayfield is back and cannot be counted on for anything other than Progressive commercials right now.

In summary, I see no reason to go against the Chargers this week in a home game that might actually have 51% of the crowd cheering for them.

Chargers 27  Browns 24

Chicago at Las Vegas (-5.5)

Last week Matt Nagy was forced to start Justin Fields in place of the gingered—I mean, injured—Andy Dalton. In conjunction he mercifully handed over the play-calling duties to that riverboat gambler of an offensive coordinator he has, ol’ Bill “Throw it more than 6 yards” Lazor.  

Is it any coincidence that all of a sudden the Bears looked capable if not occasionally threatening on offense? Well…

I suspect playing the Lions had a lot to do with it, so maybe not.

The Raiders get back on track.

Raiders 31. Bears 17 

San Francisco at Arizona (-5)

The Trey Lance era begins this weekend  and despite what should be a very difficult game in the desert here, the next two weeks set up for Jimmy Garappolo to be Wally Pipp'd (or Drew Bledsoe'd, for football’s sake).

That being said, San Francisco fans will have to wait a week to smile about it. If you've been reading the Bird Droppings this long (and I thank you if you have) you are fully aware of at least two things:

1. I do not like to take rookie QB's on the road (unless that road leads to the Meadowlands, as we learned a couple of weeks ago).
2. I love me some Kyler Murray and am riding the K-Train as far as it will take me.

Take Arizona minus the points here.

Cardinals 33  49'ers 17

New York Giants at Dallas (-7)

Dallas is hot. 

I guess, if we’re talking only about the last 6 days, so is New York. 

But something tells me Micah Parsons, Trevon Diggs, and this Cowboys defense is going to make short work of Danny Dimes and crew. Take the ’Boys here for sure.

Cowboys 31 Giants 20

Buffalo at Kansas City (-3)

Wow. Where to start? 

Kansas City, even when they appear to be struggling, will cause any defense to shake like a unit of French soldiers. They’ve also already lost one game at home and it’s hard to imagine this team going any worse than 7-1 in their own stadium. 

Buffalo meanwhile… 35-0, 43-21, and 40-0.  Their last three games have been complete ear-holers and that can’t bode well for a Chiefs team who’s best defense is letting the other team score so they can get the ball back to their offense.

 

As someone who holds a masters degree in AFC West football, I know far too well the advantage that comes to those in red when playing at Arrowhead. In that vein it’s hard for me to bet against the Chiefs here. At the same time, I am struggling to picture their defense giving up anything less than 35 points to a team who is making 35 points their weekly tradition.

A field goal game sounds about right. A shootout sounds about righter. But Mahomes making magic in prime time sounds about the rightest. All I know for sure is take the over. 

Chiefs 42 Bills 38

Indianapolis at Baltimore (-7)

The good news for Indianapolis is Carson Wentz didn't re-aggravate any of his sprained ankles last week.

The bad news is this is a third consecutive road game for the Colts, against a team coming home after two straight weeks out on the road, who has a Lamar Jackson who is actually starting to polish his air game to match those crazy legs of his. Oh, and it’s in prime time.

I like the Ravens a lot here.

Ravens 35 Colts 24

You’ve been Bird dropped. Tell a friend! 

Last Week Straight Up Winners:  9-7

Current Season Total Straight Up Winners: 44-20

Last Week Against the Spread: 9-7

Current Season Total Against the Spread:  36-27-1