Oh, Say Can You See: The Bird’s Week 7 Picks

I found a guy who’s been reading my blog and thinks similarly about Detroit:

What does your dad have against the Detroit Lions?

Click: Thad Ranger. This guy gets it!

The Bird is twelve games in the positive betting against the spread so far, and a very bloated 38 games above .500 picking outright winners. 

Buffalo, Dallas, Jacksonville, Pittsburgh, Minnesota and the LA Chargers all get a spa day this Sunday. 

Now, on to Week 7! 

Denver at Cleveland (-1.5)

Cleveland is a team without Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt, and who’s quarterback is hobbling around these days like Bernie Kosar with a case of hemorrhoidal flare up.

That being said, Denver has scarred the fan and the bettor in me this month. For the third straight week they enter a game in which I think, given the circumstances, they can and maybe even should win. 

Big Ben having the worst year of his career? No problem. Raiders mired in the chaos of incriminating emails worse than the Benghazi files? Bring it. All the Browns key offensive players hurt and Case Keenum being handed the keys to the Mutts Cuts wagon? Well…

At this point I’m conditioned to question Denver’s ability to take advantage of such things. Sadly, the realist in me says anytime Vic Fangio goes up against a well-coached team, the well-coached team should be the pick.

Browns 27  Broncos 23

Carolina (-2.5) at New York Giants

What’s the old saying? “You can put lipstick on a pig but at the end of the day Sam Darnold is still your quarterback?”

Sans for a trip to Arizona in mid-November, any capable team with Carolina’s upcoming schedule would be readying themselves for a 6-1 or 5-2 run over the next seven weeks. The question is: are the Panthers a capable team?

When Christian McCaffrey returns in two weeks the answer is probably yes. Either way, the New York Giants are so bad right now it may not matter this week.

Panthers 20  Giants 16

Atlanta (-2.5) at Miami

Atlanta has looked impressive in their two wins, although I’m not sure it counts if you do it against the Jets and Giants. Lucky for them though, while the Dolphins do not hail from the Meadowlands, they did just get back from another continent and the league didn’t even have the courtesy to give them a bye week to recover. This seems completely unfair to me, but what do I know.

I’ll bet Atlanta here on the merit that they are coming off a two week rest and only had to hop a 75 min flight to Florida for this one. The Fins meanwhile, just took a 14-hour round tripper to Tottenham and back and couldn’t even beat the freaking Jaguars.

Falcons 29  Dolphins 23

Washington at Green Bay (-7.5)

We’ve reached the part in this week’s blog where I calmly remind everyone to never bet against Aaron Rodgers with a chip on his shoulder. Lay the points and move along. 

Packers 27  Washington 17

Cincinnati (+6.5) at Baltimore

The Bengals are 4-2 and just creamed the same Lions team that the Ravens needed a 66 yard field goal to beat. Yet after 40 years of watching NFL football, it is so ingrained in me that the Bengals can never possibly be for real that I placed my shillings on Detroit last Sunday. And you know what? I believed it!

Meanwhile, the Ravens are so explosive it’s hard to discount what’s going on near the shores of the Chesapeake. In fact, we haven’t seen these types of fireworks out of Baltimore since Fort McHenry was bombarded and Francis Scott Key wrote a song about it. 

1812: the last time Baltimore saw this much excitement.

 

I still don’t believe Cincy can go into Baltimore and cover six points here. Baltimore wins by at least a TD. If I’m wrong again on the Bengals, you all can kick me in the junk one time, for free.

Ravens 34 Bengals 27

New York Jets at New England (-6.5)

Seven points seems like a lot to give, until you consider you’re giving them to the Jets. This game won’t be that close as there’s no way the Pats are falling to 0-5 at home.

Patriots 24  Jets 13

Kansas City at Tennessee (+5)

It's hard to imagine the Chiefs falling to 3-4. It's just as hard not picturing Derek Henry demolishing a defense that has more holes in it than Larry The Cable Guy's underwear.

Hmmm.

Tennessee is extremely banged up in their secondary, not to mention they are working on a short week in the wake of that emotional victory vs. Buffalo. How costly was Monday night’s gut-wrenching win?

I know the Chiefs always have the ability to hang 40 points in hopes of simply outscoring their opponent, and against a flat and shorthanded defense this might actually happen. But this spread is too high for my Chiefs taste. Titans keep it within the spread.

Chiefs 30  Titans 27

Detroit at Los Angeles Rams (-15)

Reunion week for the two quarterbacks here. The Rams are so hot right now, I just can’t fathom picking them to win by anything less than a couple of touchdowns against a Lions team that God himself hates.

Rams 37  Lions 20

Houston at Arizona (-17)

And since Arizona is the only team hotter than the Rams, and I believe in the Texans even less than I do the Lions, this pick is easy as well. Cardinals by a lot.

Cardinals 40  Texans 17

Philadelphia (+3) at Las Vegas

I would like to say I saw that Raiders win coming, but then I'd have to go back and edit my last blog where I said Denver by 6. It would seem the eye-patchers did exactly what teams do when they lose their racist and misogynistic leader: they played inspired ball and took out all frustrations on their division rival.

Since Philly has had 10 days to rest and prepare, and since Vegas no longer has a Public Relations disaster as a smoke screen, I think I’ll take the points. Raiders probably win, but it will be close enough to bet Philly.

Raiders 23  Eagles 21

Chicago at Tampa Bay (-12)

A close fan of the blog and not-so-close friend of Thad Ranger told me last week he can never trust Tom Brady with covering a spread. Interestingly enough I had just posted an hour earlier about not overthinking it when it comes to laying points with TB12 at the helm.

Click: Betting on Brady Against the Spread

So I looked it up: through last year’s Super Bowl, Big Tom is 201-135-8 ATS in 344 career starts, including the postseason. Had you bet a crisp Benjamin on him in every game he has ever started, you’d be up $4,770.

Similarly, if you had bet a C-note on every one of The Bird’s picks this season, you’d be up $1,200. Since 1,200 is roughly 25% of 4,770, I don’t need Ancestry.com to know I’m a quarter-Brady. 

Someone, fetch me my Uggs!

Buccaneers 34  Bears 21

Indianapolis (+4.5) at San Francisco

San Francisco has had two weeks to soak in the tingly sensation of losing three straight games after a shaky 2-0 start. I don’t know if they’re a 2-3 team that really should be 3-2… or a 2-3 team that could just as easily be 1-4.

The Colts on the other hand, blew a sure win two weeks ago in Baltimore then impressively took out their frustrations last week against the University of Houston. They should probably be 3-3 if not 4-2, and don’t look now but Carson Wentz is starting to gel after the lost time with sprained ankle syndrome this preseason.

I like the home team here, but the spread is tricky for what feels like a field goal game. I wouldn’t bet this one but since I have to pick it… the horseshoes cover.

49’ers 26  Colts 23

New Orleans (-4.5) at Seattle

Geno Smith. 

The Saints have had two weeks to prepare for a quarterback who can usually be scouted by simply watching old newsreels of the Hindenburg.

Freeze-frame of some Geno Smith game tape.

As much as I hate taking a road favorite to cover a spread this hefty, two weeks is more than enough time for Jameis Winston to, uhm… prepare. 

Saints 24  Seahawks 17

Click: What did he say?

Until the next droppings, my friends.  Cheers!

Last Week Straight Up Winners: 10-4

Current Season Total Straight Up Winners: 66-28

Last Week Against the Spread: 9-5

Current Season Total Against the Spread:  52-40-2