Shake It Mama, Shake It: The Bird's Super Bowl LVI Pick

Line: Rams by 4 1/2

For the first time in many, many years, this Sunday's Super Bowl does not contain any Brady's, Belichick's, Chiefs, Seahawks, Harbaugh's, Maroon 5/Travis Scott halftime shows, Denver Bronco opponents... or anything else I love to root against. In fact, this year's big game is full of the exact opposite. 

Both teams are likeable. Both have intriguing story lines worth rooting for. And each team is replete with precise skill in almost every position on the field. Oh and move over, Adam Levine. I swear if this halftime show concludes with a hologram of Tupac showing up and closing out the intermission party with a California Love duet with Dr. Dre, I just might wet myself. 

Yep. I'm looking forward to this Super Bowl more than any other (that didn't include my Denver Broncos) since probably... ever.

So. Who wins? you ask.

For that, let's examine the obverse reasons why each team might raise the Lombardi:

 

Reasons why the Rams will win:

1. Matt Stafford. Never before has one team (or one man) played a Super Bowl for what feels like two cities. Sure, many have played while multiple other cities openly rooted against them (Browns fans hated John Elway’s Broncos and Art Model’s Ravens; All 31 other fan bases vehemently root against Bill Belichick’s Patriots, etc.), but this year feels as if both the Schlitz-drinking blue-collars of Detroit and the wine-sipping influencers of Los Angeles are sending love and good cheer for Matt Stafford’s Rams. He’s got all of California and Michigan in his corner. Hell, if he wins Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida he could be president. 
2. Geography. Speaking of Matt Stafford: the guy has lived and worked in freaking Detroit, Michigan, the largest city in human history to ever file for bankruptcy for Lee Iococa’s sake, for ten damn years with nary a raise or probably even a toilet that flushed properly. He’s gotta feel like little Charlie Bucket with a Wonka Golden Ticket. He's in his cushy new stadium and playing the biggest game of his life "at home." When it’s time to fly that magic elevator into the atmosphere, you gotta believe he’s going full-throttle.
3. Defense. If the Titans and Chiefs got to Joe Burrow 30 times in two weeks, I can only imagine what Aaron Donald & Co. will do. The prop gambler in me wants to wager Von Miller becomes the first man to ever win SB MVP from the defensive side of the ball two times, but even if not, the Rams defense should feast. This could be ugly for Joe Brrr. 
4. Skill and experience. Lastly, the Rams are better. Sure, the Bengals have been fun… really fun. But where the Bengals are fun, the Rams are business. They are a complete team in all three phases, they have the more experienced (and probably eager) coach, and they were just here three years ago tasting the agony of defeat on the biggest stage whilst Tom Brady and Bill Belichick made us all vomit in our mouths yet again. LA, for all intents and purposes, didn’t get here on whimsical finishes and Cinderella storylines. They’re here because they belong here. And many of us believed this back in September just as we do today. 

Reasons why the Bengals will win:

1. Fate. Only two quarterbacks in history have won a college National Championship AND a Super Bowl. They were both named Joe. For real? I’m telling ya, this is setting up so well for young Mr. Burrow.
2. Swagger. At first thought, I said to myself, “How in the hell is an offensive line that has let their QB get sacked 13 times —in this postseason alone!?— going to keep #9 from getting killed by the likes of Aaron Donald, Von Miller, Leonard Floyd, and company?” Then I remembered, it doesn’t matter. It’s Joe effing Burrow... the man who walked into the prom as a nobody and strolled off with the prom queen (more on that in a minute). But there is something to say about unbridled confidence. I believe Master Shifu once said, “A flower doesn’t concern itself with the flower next to it. It just blooms.” This seems to be the Zen of Joe Burrow.
   
3. Defense. The thing about Cincinnati that no one is talking about: their defense. After amassing 311 yards in the first 30 minutes, the Chiefs had a total of 83 yards in the second half and overtime last Sunday. We’ve never seen any defense do that to the Chiefs. In fact, Cincinnati’s D has shut down and caused key sacks and turnovers in consecutive weeks against the AFC’s #1 and #2 seeds… on the road. They have 6 interceptions this postseason and trust me, they all fall under the category of “big time plays in key moments.” Much will be said about LA’s star-studded defense this weekend (myself included, above), but Cincinnati’s D might currently be more impressive if we’re being honest.
4. Mojo. Two weeks ago the Bengals were on the ropes for the entire first half in a game that looked like it was going to be the rout that many predicted it would be. Then? Then Joe Burrow swooped in after halftime like the new kid from another town who shows up at a brand new school and immediately has all the girls fawning over him. Calm, cool, and irrationally confident.

Meanwhile the resident asshole of the school, let’s say the varsity QB, who has never had to try for anything in life because of his God-given talent and good looks, starts tripping over his own shoelaces and clumsily slamming his fingers in his locker because of the distraction in the hallways around him. 

 

Yep. New kid showed up to the dance, stole Pat Mahomes’ girl, and peeled out of the parking lot with the hot chick riding shotgun in his IROC-Z.

It was damn glorious.

Joe Burrow slides in as Patrick
Mahomes heads to get some punch.

 

 

The Pick:

This is refreshing. Not having to collectively cuss under our breath about lucky asswipes and cheating sons of bitches every time we dip our Tostitos, will make this a fun Super Bowl for all of us. There are plenty of reasons to like both teams, and I feel like general happiness will flow no matter who wins, making it kinda like that time Tony Dungee and Lovie Smith faced off in SB15YearsAgo for the right to become the first black head coach to lead his team to a championship. How can we lose??

It feels glorious, if not unprecedented. It feels unexpected, if not miraculous. And it feels exciting, if not down right intoxicating.

As for my pick? Well, if I’ve learned anything this postseason, it’s that the overwhelming trend has been: TAKE THE POINTS! Take the points, then kick back and watch some of the best, nail-biting-fantastic-finish football we’ve ever seen!

On those merits I’ll bet the Bengals, plus the 4. But as victors go, I just can’t imagine Cincinnati’s offensive line stopping the Rams’ front and edge rushers. Joe Burrow is definitely the kind of guy who can steal a win, but I think Aaron Donald or Von Miller will be MVP this day.

Well, besides the real MVP: hologram Tupac. 

California...knows how to party.

Rams 30  Bengals 27

Playoffs Straight Up Winners: 8-4

Playoffs Against the Spread:  5-7

Season Total Straight Up Winners: 189-101

Season Total Against the Spread:  152-135-3

Thanks for your readership this season, my friends!

Bird Droppings. We keep it rockin’… we keep it rockin’!

Okay, Boomer! The Bird's NFL Wild Card Picks

Blessed are the meek, for they shall inherit the playoffs. 

Just like that, the regular season is over. The Bird Droppings finished red hot and The Bird won a couple of pick'em pools and a few bags of coin from the fine people over at Draft Kings along the way. All evidence that this is likely your best place for finding acute NFL forecasting disguised in dry wit.

That being said, there will be no resting on laurels here. The post-season is a brand new beginning for 14 teams as well as myself, and while it is true I made my kids give me a Gatorade shower last Sunday as my final pick rang true, I have since showered off and am ready to start a new run.

Me, forcing my kids to to acknowledge my Pick’em 
League win after last Sunday’s final game ended.

The new season is here. Everyone is 0-0. Wild Card Weekend begins… now.

Let's go!

5. Las Vegas Raiders  at  4. Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5)

The last time the Bengals won a playoff game, I could not yet legally drive a car unless my mom or dad were sitting shotgun with a look of sheer terror on their face. As a staunch believer in the principle that most future events are likely to balance any past deviation from a presumed average, I am compelled to pick Cincinnati here.

Then again, the Raiders’ last playoff win came three years before I began producing offspring, and I now have a college-bounder. So we have a real clash in the Law of Averages at stake this Saturday.

With some Bell Biv Devoe in the tape deck,
The Bird gets ready to take his Driver’s Test the
same year Cincinnati last won a playoff game.

The Queen City should be Ickey Shuffling like it’s 1990, and I think the combination of energy, hype, talent, and a roster full of players who weren’t yet born the last time a guy named Esiason was taking playoff snaps for the home team, should all propel the striped helmets to an inspired win. Okay, Boomer?

Bengals 27  Raiders 20

6. New England Patriots (+5)  at  3. Buffalo Bills

Can you imagine what Bills Mafia is thinking, but too scared to say out loud? After shaking the Pats last year in a set of events that actually looked as if New England was finally about to fade into history with the Nazis, Chiang Kai Shek, and all the other evil empires throughout time, then coming within 15 min of returning to the Super Bowl, then winning the AFC East again this year… you draw the goddamn Patriots in round one of this year’s postseason?

Bills fans, after realizing last week that they drew 
Belichick and the Patriots for their first playoff game.

I don’t know what to compare this to. It’s like switching schools and escaping the neighborhood bully only to realize the next semester that he transferred too. Or imagine Buster Douglas grabbing an elevator down to the lobby the morning after beating Mike Tyson, only to find Iron Mike waiting for him at the button panel. “Firth’t floor, Butth-ter?”

Yikes.

If there is any kind of karma in the football world, Buffalo will erase two decades of New England Patriot fingerprints that are all over the mosaic that is the AFC playoff canvas of the past 20 years. But the bettor in me can’t pass up Big Bill as a 5 pt. underdog in the playoffs against a team he knows so well.

I also really hate that Buffalo just beat New England three weeks ago, as that alone makes this ripe for an upset in my opinion. However, because I’m a good guy who grew up on Star Wars and therefore knows the value in rooting against all evil, I’ll cast a valiant pick for Buffalo to at least get the win. But I’m nervous about it.

Bills 23  Patriots 20

7. Philadelphia Eagles (+8)  at  2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

As I stated in my Yellowstone playoff summary earlier this week (Yellowstone Playoff Preview), Philadelphia is merely an overmatched, flinching, lucky-to-be-alive Jamie Dutton here in the Wild Card round. 

The Eagles, standing at the locker room tunnel as 
Tom Brady strolls by with his seven rings and zero worries.

I’m a bit skeptical on the point spread, mainly because playoff games are not traditionally blowouts (unless it’s a Super Bowl from the 80’s/90’s involving the Broncos or Bills), and also because Tampa has killed me all season long by not covering spreads that I thought were money in the bank. Bettors agree with me as this line opened at 10 and dropped to 8 by mid-week.

I’ll cautiously pick Philly to keep it closer than that… well, maybe with a back door cover in a game not actually that close. But of all the games on this weekend’s slate, I like this one the least if we’re talking about placing money.

Buccaneers 24  Eagles 19

6. San Francisco 49'ers  at  3. Dallas Cowboys (-3)

San Fransisco and Dallas renew their postseason rivalry, even though the grandeur of Joe Montana-to-Dwight Clark and the paltriness of Terrell Owens dancing on the midfield Star at Arlington have faded unvaryingly into history. 

I have similar thoughts about Dallas here as I do Buffalo. Which is to say if the ’Boys aren’t shaking like a Frenchman in a thunderstorm at the prospect of drawing a red hot and explosive 49’er team, then they’re ripe for a rude awakening.

I also have similar thoughts about Dallas as I do New England, which is to say any team with decades of legacy and a crypt keeper running the show must qualify as a hated institution. Hmmm.

Hello, boys and ghouls. How ‘bout dem Cowboys?

That being said Dallas’s defense has been impressive all year long, despite some wild inconsistencies. And though it’s hard for me to bet on anyone who was down 30-0 at home to the Broncos at any point during this year, Micah Parsons (easily my vote for Def. R.O.Y.) and Trayvon Diggs bring an attitude and style to the Dallas D that will win the day. They also possess the kind of speed on the outside that few defenses have: the kind it takes to neutralize this Deebo Samuel factor that has otherwise been wreaking havoc on NFL defenses of late.

San Francisco is the sexy pick for many this weekend, headlining plenty of upset specials. But I like Dallas. San Fran still isn’t even sure if they’re starting their best quarterback or not, and that’s a problem for me. It won’t be for Micah Parsons and crew.

Cowboys 26  49’ers 20

7. Pittsburgh Steelers  at  2. Kansas City Chiefs (-12)

"Nothing is as obnoxious as other people's luck." -- F. Scott Fitzgerald

By now we’re all aware that Pittsburgh came away luckier than a puppy with two peters last Sunday during that LV-LAC barn-burner of a finale. From Vegas going for two points early in the game when it wasn’t necessary (and failing), to LA going for two later in the game when it wasn’t yet necessary (and scoring), to Brandon Staley calling a timeout when it looked like the Raiders were content to let the clock run out with the game tied, to Vegas taking offense to that and changing their mindset towards going for the win… Pittsburgh miraculously woke up Monday morning in the playoffs.

This guy laid a good, old-fashioned Western Pennsylvania Steamer in his BVD’s Sunday night at the Raider game.

Too many times we have seen luck make accidental heroes out of fools, and we all know a puppy with two peters is, literally, one lucky son of a bitch. But I don’t see the black and gold moving on after today.

Just recently this game was played and the result was a 36-10 Chiefs victory. Pittsburgh, a team who looks as if they would have trouble scoring in a 5¢ whore house even if you gave them a roll of nickels, simply cannot keep up here. While -12 is a hefty cover for any favorite, especially in the ground-and-pound nature of the playoffs, I’ll take Kansas City and I’ll feel pretty good about it.

Chiefs 35  Steelers 13

5. Arizona Cardinals  at  4. Los Angeles Rams (-4)

The Rams have not looked “right” over the course of the last month of the season. I can’t quite put my finger on it, other than they simply didn’t get to play the Jaguars enough. Still, this is what all of the roster moves —from signing Leonard Floyd, to trading for Matt Stafford, to paying dearly for OBJ, to acquiring Von Miller— were meant for, right?

In that vein it’s “put up or shut up” time for the SoFi kids. And quite frankly a lot of dudes with ugly stickers of horns on their helmets have something to prove to a club that pushed their chips All-In several times this year, and to a fan base that obviously likes the Niners better than their own team. 

No one has a bigger monkey to throw than Matthew Stafford, and with J.J. Watt back from Dave Drevecky’s School of Torn Labrums & Rotator Cuff Recoveries, there will be pressure both in Stafford’s head and from the fresh-legged #99 on the blind side. Assuming Watt plays.

Either way this smells like trouble against a young team who is finally getting healthy and has far less to lose, reputation wise. Hmmm.

I wouldn’t bet my last pair of socks on this one (unless it was on the over), but I’ll give a nod to the home team for the win and cover, laying 4 points. They’ve paid highly for this moment. So maybe it’s time. Matt Stafford seizes the day.

Rams 41 Cardinals 34

 

Enjoy the games! Thanks for reading the Wild Card Bird Droppings. Cheers!

Final Regular Season Stats:

Straight Up Winners: 176-96

Against Spread:  144-125-3