Setting aside reliable news such as that, some interesting developments are taking place in this young season. And none are as encouraging as the blueprint that has been drawn up in back-to-back weeks by Kansas City's opponents.
The Ravens and Chargers have done the exact same thing in consecutive weeks to the Chiefs: they went for it with the game on the line. YES!!!
This type of boldness is EXACTLY how you beat teams that you can’t otherwise stop when your defense trots back out with a three point lead and :36 seconds to kill. Just ask Detroit.
When the other quarterback only needs thirty seconds to move 60 yards and erase the 39 yard field goal you just "settled for” moments ago, your odds of winning are no better than if you had just gone for it to begin with! So eschew the pussy-foot field goals and stop giving Mahomes (or Rodgers or Brady or Jackson, et.al.) the football back!
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| The Ravens and Chargers place some very important blueprints in this yellow tube for the rest of the league to review. |
Not since that time Greg Brady was entrusted to deliver Mr. Brady's designs to his boss across town has there been a more important set of plans. Week 4 is here... fun times ahead!
Jacksonville (+7.5) at Cincinnati
The Bengals are playing like a team that believes, and now they get Jacksonville at home in a rare prime time game for the Queen City. Any normal red-blooded American should assume Cincy pummels the Jags tonight.
You know what that means. Time for the real Bengals to show up! Cincinnati is 10-33 in prime time games in the last twenty years. I don’t know what else to tell ya other than a .303 winning % is not the kind of warm fuzzy The Bird is looking for in order to bet on an easy win for the home team.
It’s scary as hell anytime one says “Bet the Jags” but I think Jacksonville is the play here, getting more points than the Bengals can be trusted to cover once the sun goes down.
Bengals 27 Jaguars 20
Detroit (+3) at Chicago
The Lions snatched defeat from the jaws of victory last week in the most historic of ways, so really they should be coming off a win here. The Bears meanwhile got Justin Fields sacked 9 times en route to amassing 1 total yard of passing offense as Matt Nagy’s squad has basically looked inept in all facets.
I'm inclined to lean towards the underdogs in what should be a gross misrepresentation of football all around. I have no strong feel for it though because both teams seem remedial on all levels.
Lions 17 Bears 16
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| Matt Nagy draws up a play for the Bears offense. |
New York Giants (+7.5) at New Orleans
It might be time to take this Saints defense seriously, and against an anti-juggernaut offense like the Giants that alone seems like enough to bet on the black and gold here.
But…
Much like my reasoning on the Thursday Night game, 7 1/2 sure seems ambitious for a team who uses their best player only some of the time and has been as Jekyll and Hyde as the Saints have. I'll cautiously pick the Giants to play with enough pride to keep it under eight points.
Saints 27 Giants 23
Kansas City (-7) at Philadelphia
Kansas City has a losing record for the first time since Week 6 of 2015. You think they’re gonna stand for this?
If Dallas can put up 41 on the Eagles then surely the Chieftans can score 80. I'm picking KC as I quietly keep exacting my reverse jinx prowess on Denver’s divisional rivals.
Chiefs 41 Eagles 31
Houston (+17) at Buffalo
Houston looks like they just might be the worst team in the league, which is a monumental statement considering there's a team called the Jets out there.
I also think Buffalo, coming off of two ass whoopings in a row for which they put up 35 and 41 points of offense, respectively, is as hot as any team in the land.
But for some reason -a backdoor cover, maybe?- I feel inclined to take the Texans to only get creamed by less than 18 this day.
Bills 38 Texans 23
Carolina at Dallas (-4)
Carolina’s Pyrrhic victory over Houston last Thursday came at great cost. Losing your best player and arguably the best player in the entire league who doesn’t play quarterback is never a good thing.
Dallas meanwhile looks like a team that has things figured out and is one Tom Brady comeback away from being undefeated. Take Dallas minus the points.
Cowboys 27 Panthers 21
Cleveland at Minnesota (+2)
After losing Week 1 to the Chiefs, Cleveland responded by clobbering two very bad teams at home.
Minnesota, by contrast, opened with two unlucky losses on the road and then returned home to clobber a very solid team; doing so without their best player even.
I’m actually surprised the home team is not favored here, so this feels to me like a trap of sorts. Nonetheless, I like Minnesota as they continue to right the Longship.
Vikings 27 Browns 24
Indianapolis (+2) at Miami
Vegas knows everyone is scared to bet on a team who’s quarterback has sprained both ankles and would probably sprain a third if he could, which is why I suspect the team who lost 35-0 the last time they played at home and who has a former Colt backup playing QB is favored here. Could also just be that 1-2 trumps 0-3 when it comes to setting the line between flailing teams.
The Colts however, have had a tougher schedule to start the season, and have actually shown some moxie. They hung tough against the Titans and are the only team who has almost beaten the Rams.
I’ll take the horseshoes in a minor upset here.
Colts 24 Dolphins 22
Tennessee (-6.5) at New York Jets
Good news for the Jets: with only 2 INTs last weekend, Zach Wilson cut his turnover production in half from the previous week. This is a sign of great progress for the young lad!
Bad news for the Jets: everything else.
Tennessee wins and covers on the road.
Titans 30 Jets 20
Washington at Atlanta (+1)
I was brutally honest in last week’s post about my self-immolation whenever I bet games involving the Falcons. At this point, every attempt I've made to assess the state of Atlanta’s football team has followed the same rules as trusting a fart: If you have to force it, it's probably shit.
Eff you, Atlanta. I’m convinced whatever I pick here, you’ll do precisely the opposite. Just for that I’ll pick you guys to win and cover.
Falcons 26 Football Team 24
Arizona (+4) at Los Angeles Rams
I know I said a couple of weeks ago that I was riding the Kyler Murray train until I saw a reason not to. I also know you never walk away from a heater on the craps table. This is a real Sophie’s Choice kinda game for me.
The Rams look white hot if not unbeatable, and the Cardinals flirted with the idea of losing to the dog butt Jaguars last week. So there’s that.
All signs point to a Rams win, but the spread has dropped from 7.5 to 4 this week as clearly bettors are liking the Red Birds to keep it close. I imagine this being a shootout game involving a last minute score, so I'll bet the Cardinals plus the points even though LA wins the day.
Rams 34 Cardinals 31
Seattle (+3) at San Francisco
In this week’s sign that the apocalypse is upon us, the Legion of Doom is dead last in three very key defensive statistics (YPG allowed, 1st downs allowed, Time of Possession) after having played Indy, Tennessee and Minnesota. As if that wasn’t bad enough, they now have San Fran and the LA Rams up next.
Yikes. The rare air of 1-4 seems very likely for the Seabags if they don’t find a win in one of these next two games. You absolutely know Pete Carol understands that if this game is not a must win, then next week sure as hell is. And Seattle would much rather find their way to a W against a beatable Niners team this week than having to find a way to stop the Rams’ offense next week. Plus, Russell Wilson always plays well in the Bay Area.
Seahawks 27 49’ers 24
Pittsburgh at Green Bay (-6.5)
Green Bay is rolling while Pittsburgh appears to be folding faster than Superman on laundry day. I have no idea what is happening in the Steel City but I'm enjoying it.
I fully expect the Packers to keep their trajectory. Take them minus the points for the win.
Packers 30 Steelers 17
Baltimore at Denver (-1)
I'd like to give Baltimore credit for being 2-1, with that miraculous finish by the Raiders on opening night as the only thing keeping them from being 3-0. At the same time, it's hard to ignore the fact that they have performed two consecutive miracles of their own and really could be 0-3.
Conversely, the Broncos are 3-0 but due to the nature of their opponents, I can't seem to convince myself of how good they truly are. For now they're kinda like a joyrider who’s blowing through intersections, high on the rush, and oblivious to the trouble up ahead. Blissfully unaware, they think they’re cool because they’re making great time.
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| How the Broncos are feeling... |
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| Ravens, Raiders, Browns & Cowboys up ahead. |
This week we will find out just how good the Broncos are. At least in terms of lining up with one of the big boys in the AFC. Guess I'll grip the 'oh shit' handle and take Denver with my eyes closed. Call me a homer, I’m just along for the ride.
Broncos 23 Ravens 21
Tampa Bay (-7) at New England
Las Vegas at Los Angeles Chargers (-3)
The Raiders are 3-0 for the first time in 19 years and they’ve needed all 14 quarters in three games to get there.
I’m weary of a let down from the Chargers as last week was an emotional win in which their collective wad was surely blown. Setting aside my fears that the Bolts may come out flat, I have to remind myself that I hate the Raiders.
Therefore, L.A. is the pick.
Chargers 29 Raiders 24
We’re nearing the quarter pole, my friends. Keep applying the whip!
Last Week Straight Up Winners: 12-4
Current Season Total Straight Up Winners: 35-13
Last Week Against the Spread: 9-7
Current Season Total Against the Spread: 27-20-1
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