Welp. Week 1 is officially in the books!
Record-wise it wasn’t the best of weeks, but considering some really promising teams looked awful (Green Bay, Tennessee) and some really awful teams looked promising (Houston, Cincinnati), one can’t complain too much about coming out of Week 1 in the black.
Some intriguing teams looked even more intriguing after Week 1 (Arizona, Dallas, both LA’s), while others looked absolutely less intriguing after Week 1 (Minnesota, Indianapolis, Atlanta). And then there were a few teams who looked to be exactly what we expected (Tampa Bay, Kansas City, San Francisco).
Joe Burrow and Carson Wentz appear to be healthy again, Jerry Jeudy and Ryan Fitzpatrick sadly saw their names added to the injured reserve, and for the first time in three weeks no Baltimore running backs tore their ACL. Meanwhile Russell Wilson looked like the old Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers looked nothing like the old Aaron Rodgers, And Teddy Bridgewater looked like Daniel Kaluuya from the movie Get Out!
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| Doppelganger jokes aside, Teddy B. looked very sharp in his Broncos debut. |
Uncanny resemblances notwithstanding, Bronco fans have to be excited after watching Teddy Two-Gloves last Sunday. His numbers weren’t jaw-dropping, but the way in which he played was about as close to perfection as we’ve seen in these parts in a very long time. TB5 spread the ball around to 9 different receivers, delivered with accuracy, and even launched a couple of long bombs… which we were told he was incapable of doing. Perhaps best of all, on several occasions #5 extended the play, and he was clutch on multiple 3rd and 4th down conversions. It was only one week, but…
This is our guy? Get out!
Time to build on last week’s momentum and keep picking winners. On to Week 2!
New York Giants (+3.5) at Washington
New York looked stifled at best last week in what essentially was a bed crapper against Denver at home. Not to be outdone in matters of crapping themselves though, Washington wants everyone to know that they are perfectly adept at making a mess of things too:
Click here to see: shit happens!
Yep. Not only did starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick land on the IR with a subluxation of his hip, but the upper level sewage line started raining down on the Football Team’s dearly beloved shortly after. Honestly, I'm not sure which was the added insult.
So. Even though Daniel Jones continues to show he’s good for at least one critical fumble per game, he somehow has managed to go 4-0 against the ‘Skins/Football Team while being 3-18 against everyone else. I could suggest here that he owns Washington, but really I just can't shake the feeling that dislocated hips and shitters leaking down onto your fan base are two unmistakable signs that this is not going to be your year. Sorry, Football Team.
I’ll bet the G-Men to keep it within the spread, if not win altogether.
Denver at Jacksonville (+6)
As optimistic as I felt last Sunday night when Melvin Gordon ripped off that 70 yarder late in the 4th to officially make it a blowout, I remain steadfastly pessimistic when it comes to 11am games on the east coast for my Donkeys. It’s just the way it goes and always has for this team.
I’ll predict an ugly win for Denver, but a final score closer than six points makes Jacksonville my pick against the spread. Something in the neighborhood of 17-12 and a related spike in my blood pressure seem very plausible here. Almost predictable.
Houston (+13) at Cleveland
Did everyone see the new and improved Browns last week? No, I’m not talking about the extra chutzpah and savvy they brought to KC for 52 minutes of a 60 minute game in which a botched snap by the punter -on their only punt of the game!- may have been all that kept them from notching last weekend’s biggest upset.
I’m talking about Cleveland’s “new uniforms” of course! That’s right. The Brownies unveiled newer and sleeker unis that the organization says “pay tribute” to the club’s history in this, their 75th anniversary season.
You probably didn’t notice because they generally look just like the previous 75 years of Browns uniforms. Gotta hand it to them though. Cleveland’s idea of “Before & After” is inspiringly similar to my dieting “successes”:
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| Cleveland's new uniforms (R) as compared to their old ones (L). |
Anyhow. Another thing that hasn’t changed: unless it’s 1946 or Jim Brown is toting the rock, never ever EVER bet on Cleveland to cover a spread this big. Houston is the pick.
Buffalo (-3) at Miami
Coming off their big road win to start the season, I fully expect all 900 of Miami's fans —plus that big teal tarp they hide the upper level seats under— to be in attendance for this one.
This might have been a tougher game for me to pick had Buffalo held serve and won last week, but since the Bills lost and now see their season of high hopes staring ominously at an 0-2 start, I fully expect them to circle the wagons. Buffalo wins and covers.
New England at New York Jets (+6)
I simply cannot envision a world in which the Patriots are 0-2 and staring up from the basement in their division. Clearly, Bill Belichick is no longer cheating hard enough.
A sort of constitutional vibe and a quarter century of recent AFC East history almost demands a Patriots win this Sunday. Newly born babies, nuns, nurses, first responders, war heroes, Betty White, and all else that is good and pure in this world surely deserve the opposite. This is too much.
I feel dirty, but I’m picking the Pats here to win and cov— Wait! Wait…
I almost broke one of my own cardinal rules: never bet on a rookie QB on the road. New England may still cheat and win but I’ll take the Jets to cover.
Cincinnati at Chicago (-2.5)
People who switch to Geico are happy. How happy, Jimmy? Happier than Andy Dalton that this game isn’t being played in Cincinnati.
Two entire cities are convinced ol’ Andy isn’t a proper answer for NFL quarterback, even though the poor sap is being completely shackled by play calling that’s more conservative than an Amish fashion show.
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| Top: Chicago's play calling. |
| Bottom: The rest of the league. |
Chicago’s gonna win this game, probably because of something Justin Fields does, but we'll call it Dalton’s Revenge either way. Take the Bears, minus the points.
San Francisco (-3) at Philadelphia
I did not see that coming last week from the Eagles. That being said and with all due respect, San Francisco has better things to do than spend their first two weekends of fall in Detroit and Philly.
The Niners make short work of this one.
New Orleans at Carolina (+3.5)
Jameis Winston headed into this season as the only player in NFL history to throw 30 TD & 30 INT in the same season, then in Week 1 promptly became the first player to ever toss 5 touchdowns in a game while throwing for less than 150 yards.
I am not a statistician, but I am an American voter and taxpayer, so I know all about how fuzzy math works. Obviously Winston is poised to throw 5 interceptions this week just to make everything right in the world.
Carolina covers as home underdogs. In fact I think they win the game straight up.
LA Rams (-3.5) at Indianapolis
Matthew Stafford showed last Sunday that waking up on game day to play quarterback in LA and not Detroit is akin to Robert Downey Jr. swapping a life of hand guns, heroin and cocaine for being Tony Stark instead. Everything’s coming up Matty!
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| Left: Stafford's time in Detroit. Right: Stafford's arrival in L.A. |
The Rams looked damn potent in the air last week and it was evident from all of the smiles; from the owner, to the fans, to that blonde NBC mistakenly called Mrs. Stafford, to the players themselves, and right down to Sean McVay who skipped up and down the sidelines with childish glee all game: LA has found their Iron Man.
I’m picking them here as a team with tons of rise on the horizon.
Las Vegas (+6.5) at Pittsburgh
Last Monday night’s Raider victory was one of the more implausible finishes to a game I’ve seen in a long time. The fact that they survived every attempt made to “Raider it up” is a good omen I suppose. I mean, besides somehow not scoring after having a 1st and Goal from the 1-foot line, they then won on a TD lob later in OT because no one could find the kicker after Gruden had called timeout to set up a game winning field goal. Only the Raiders.
I learned long ago that good omens are not to be ignored however, and I feel a strong follow up is looming.
Likewise, Pittsburgh shocked most of the country last weekend with an impressive road win against a team many have picked to make a Super Bowl run this year. A natural let down is brewing in this scenario, I feel. The Raiders keep this one closer than a touchdown, and I may even pick them to win it outright in an upset.
Minnesota at Arizona (-3.5)
When I drafted Kyler Murray two weeks ago to be the stalwart leader of my Fantasy Football team, I was almost positive I had just jinxed him into a sophomore slump of epic proportions. It’s just the way I roll. Then the little guy accounted for 5 TDs and shredded Tennessee like a stack of old tax returns. It was glorious!
I’m riding the K Train down every track I can until I see a reason not to. Take the Red Birds minus the points this Sunday.
Tennessee (+6.5) at Seattle
When I drafted Julio Jones two weeks ago to be the lead wide receiver of my Fantasy Football team, I was almost positive I had just jinxed him into a…
Well, I knew I was screwing with someone’s season by drafting them.
The Titans are a much better team than they showed last weekend, and they’ll need more than three catches for 29 yards from Julio this Sunday to prove so. I’m always weary of picking against Seattle at home, but I’ll give a slight lean to Tennessee here, getting six and a half.
Atlanta (+12.5) at Tampa Bay
Dallas at LA Chargers (-3)
This will feel like a home game to the Cowboys, as the Chargers continue to run weekly Amber Alerts looking for fans throughout the various Southern Cali municipalities they have called home. I fully expect a 70-30 crowd in favor of the ‘Boys inside SoFi Stadium.
That being said, none of those fans play cornerback and Dallas just gave up 400 yards passing in their opener (all be it to Tom Brady), and now face a quarterback who launches as freely as Don Rickles at a Dean Martin Celebrity Roast. Translation: Justin Herbert is primed for a huge day.
The Chargers win this shootout and cover the three points.
Kansas City (-3.5) at Baltimore
This shapes up to be a very good game with humongous playoff implications even though it is only Week 2. The Chiefs looked like a champion prize fighter doing all they could to weather the storm of a younger challenger last week, and for about 9 rounds Cleveland had them up against the ropes.
Baltimore, meanwhile, looked like an even younger and badder challenger than Cleveland until they tired in the last round and left their jaw exposed.
Sigh. Baltimore will be at home and playing desperate, yet the gambler's fallacy says "keep taking Kansas City until they stop throwing touchdowns on every sixth play.”
I’ll take the Chiefs, minus the points, to win and cover. But I'll admit I'm not confident in it.
Detroit at Green Bay (-12.5)
Until next week, my friends. You’ve been Bird Dropped.
Last Week Straight Up Winners: 10-6
Current Season Total Straight Up Winners: 10-6
Last Week Against the Spread: 9-6-1
Current Season Total Against the Spread: 9-6-1
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