Ok. Is anyone else starting to feel like the drama we’re seeing this year has been scripted for our viewing pleasure? Six games were decided on the final play last week, kickers were busier than a one-legged man in a butt-kicking contest, Hail Mary's were being heaved from Washington to California, and coaches were doing everything from sobbing to smiling to being fired.
Where to start…
There's a poignant scene in Ocean's Eleven where Danny Ocean (George Clooney) is talking to his ex-wife Tess (Julia Roberts) about her new love interest and he asks her, "Does he make you laugh?" Unmoved by his too-little-too-late show of concern, she shoots back, "He doesn't make me cry."
Ouch.
This is what Week 5 felt like if it could be summed up in a Hollywood nutshell.
The Bird lost on the Thursday Nighter for the first time this season; a “miss” that quickly became a harbinger of ugliness and heartache all over the place. For the first time I landed in the red, and I feel about as badly about it as Rodrigo Blankenship and the other seven or so kickers who couldn’t toe-punch their way out of a paper sack last week.
Thirteen missed PAT’s, fourteen missed field goals, a 0-yard punt, two punts on the same play, the Bengals comically celebrating a game-winner that they missed, and the Lions smartly eschewing a PAT with :37 seconds remaining to go balls-out for 2 and the win—! Annnd then doing the most Lions thing they could possibly do to lose in miraculous fashion… yet again…
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| Top: Does he make you laugh? Middle: Well? Bottom: He doesn't make me cry. |
In more serious matters, Saquon Barkley, Russel Wilson, and JuJu Smith-Schuster all suffered scary injuries. But worst of the weekend, hands down, was John Gruden getting fired for not being a very good human eleven years ago and apparently Marge Schott’ing his way through life ever since.
It was perhaps the saddest, definitely the wackiest, and maybe the most bizarrely comical weekend we’ve ever seen in this league. I can’t speak for the rest of this stuff, but I for one plan to get back on track and kick some ass… through the uprights this time. On to week 6!
(Take note the Falcons, Saints, and 49'ers all have byes and the Jets are on maternity leave this week. Something like that.)
Tampa Bay (-6.5) at Philadelphia
It would seem I have fallen victim to one of the classic blunders, the most famous of which is "Never get involved in a land war in Asia," but only slightly less-known is this: "Never bet against Brady in a game against a far superior team with a far superior quarterback."
Last week I overthought things. This week I'm not even going there.
Buccaneers 31 Eagles 24
Miami at* Jacksonville (+3.5) (*in England)
These two teams have all sorts of bad shit going on. If you have any poo, fling it now.
Let's just put them in London for a week and call it a win for Americans everywhere.
Jaguars 12 Dolphins 9
Cincinnati at Detroit (+3.5)
The fashion in which the Lions lose games, paired with their residency, only continues to prove that God hates Detroit. That being said, man these guys seem like they are on the brink of winning one soon. And in a game pitting the only team to ever lose on two last second field goals of 50+ yards twice in the same season, against a team who celebrates their own missed field goals, what is one to do?
Bet on the team whose coach shows up to the post-game presser like he just left a double-billing of The Notebook and Beaches. This guy cares, dammit. And his team is sooo close. Upset, Lions.
Lions 23 Bengals 20
Kansas City (-6.5) at Washington
Normally I would explain away last week’s shocking blowout loss at home to Buffalo as nothing more than early season comeuppance from a vengeful Bills team wanting to prove their two losses to KC last year were mere hiccups. Normally I would say the Chiefs will be okay, this was an early season loss and not a late round knockout. Normally I would say the Chiefs are still the class of the AFC. But when this type of in-fighting is going on in your own backyard, maybe things aren’t so okay:
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| This guy was cold-cocked by a fellow fan. I'm no Columbo, but anyone dressed like that probably deserved it. |
Clearly the Chiefs have problems. Clearly their fans don’t know how to cope with said problems. But given the level of embarrassment that Buffalo put on them last week, I sure would hate to be Washington this Sunday. Kansas City will play with pride, they will play with anger, and for the first time in the Mahomes era, they might even harbor a little bit of desperation.
Chiefs 30 Washington 17
Minnesota (+1.5) at Carolina
After the hot start, Sam Darnold has brought back nostalgic memories of Steve Burlein by throwing 5 picks in the last two weeks. The Panthers have gone from hot to tepid.
Meanwhile Minnesota remains slightly hotter than tepid, even without Dalvin Cook, and seem to have flipped the mojo around after two unlucky losses to start the season.
I’ll pick the Purple People Eaters, but I’m keeping an eye on the statuses of Dalvin Cook and Christian McCaffery before totally selling myself on it.
Vikings 28 Panthers 27
Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore (-2.5)
Talk about two teams coming in straight off the fireworks wagon. The Chargers rolled up 47 points and a million yards of offense against the Browns last week, while Lamar Jackson willed his team back from the dead with a 502-yard laser show of a performance while scoring 22 straight points in dramatic fashion against the Colts. (That 502 yards by the way was just Jackson’s output. Gulp.)
This is like Point Break meets Action Jackson.
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| Grab your popcorn for this action thriller. |
It’s extremely hard for me to bet against the Chargers right now, but did you know Lamar Jackson has 1,860 yards this season? That’s more than 18 -eighteen!- teams. Wow.
Ravens 33 Chargers 30
Houston at Indianapolis (-9.5)
Last week Houston had two missed extra points, a punt that netted zero yards after their punter rocketed the football into the back of his blocker, and they blew a 13-point lead in the last quarter en route to what was just an awful loss. It doesn’t get any worse than this.
Except…
Last week Indianapolis missed one extra point, two field goals, and blew a 16-point lead in the last quarter en route to an even more awful loss.
I couldn’t make this shit up if I tried. I’ll pick Indy to self-destruct less than Houston this day.
Colts 27 Texans 17
Los Angeles Rams (-10.5) at New York Giants
It has not yet been decided if Daniel Jones is playing this weekend as the big lumberer continues with having his brain examined for concussion progress. If he can't go it'll be Mike Glennon for the G-Men, which means...
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| Up periscope! Mike Glennon and his 9" neck will peer out from under center for New York. |
Saquon Barkley and just about every wide receiver with "NY" on their helmets are also out for this one or at least hurting badly. Being that the Giants are not going anywhere this season as it is, I do not see why they would rush a concussed tackling dummy back onto any field with Aaron Donald on it. Either way and either QB, L.A. should absolutely torpedo these guys.
Rams 41 Giants 16
Green Bay (-4.5) at Chicago
So long as Mason Crosby returns to form, or even if he doesn't, I really can't go against Aaron Rodgers these days.
Packers 27 Bears 18
Arizona at Cleveland (-3)
I'm just going to go on a hunch here that Arizona isn't going to win forever and Cleveland is still fuming from their fantastic loss in that shootout with L.A.last week.
Plus, if anyone can reverse jinx Kyler Murray back into the K-Train that’s single handedly carrying my fantasy team each week, it’s me.
Browns 31 Cardinals 28
Las Vegas at Denver (-3.5)
I don’t even know what to say here regarding the Raiders. It’s a mess that is as sad as it is messy. Even a Bronco lover like The Bird is feeling some pity for the Raiders this week.
Denver has to take advantage of what amounts to a rudderless and leaking enemy sloop floating helplessly into their harbor. If they don’t set fire to the ship and take every last bit of silver, then Lord help them.
Then again, this is a team who took a Delay of Game penalty on the very first play of the game last Sunday, so maybe the squad who just met their interim head coach 48 hrs ago has the advantage in coaching here.
It should also be noted: the line never even budged in the wake of the John Gruden fallout which speaks volumes to how anyone outside of the Rocky Mountains feels about Denver. Sigh... I'll bite.
Broncos 26 Raiders 20
Dallas (-3) at New England
For 59 minutes last week, Bill Belichick was losing to a first-year coach with a rookie quarterback on the worst team in the league. And his transformation into that old hag from Throw Momma From the Train is almost complete.
Dallas looks way too hot right now and for the life of me I cannot figure out why they are only favored by 3. My only guess is that they are really favored by 6, but Vegas has factored in 3 points toward New England on the premise that it's New England... and they will likely cheat.
It's hard not to not make the Cowboys my pick here.
Cowboys 27 Patriots 17
Seattle at Pittsburgh (-5.5)
Geno Smith is in for Russell Wilson, the Seattle defense is simply atrocious, and Pittsburgh just torched a Top 5 defense for 400 yards with a quarterback who has Whatta Burger running through his veins.
Did I say, “Geno Smith?”
Pittsburgh wins the game and I think covers... but if the spread jumps any higher I'm likely to bet the Seabirds as underdogs. Let's not forget Pittsburgh still looks pretty crappy anytime the Broncos aren't involved. Tricky game here.
Steelers 24 Seahawks 18
Buffalo at Tennessee (+6)
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| Buffalo goes Ralphie on Kansas City's ass, unleashing a lifetime of pent up anger through tiny fists of fury. |
You’ve been Bird dropped. Tell a friend!
Last Week Straight Up Winners: 12-4
Current Season Total Straight Up Winners: 56-24
Last Week Against the Spread: 7-8-1
Current Season Total Against the Spread: 43-35-2
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| I'm telling you. He definitely deserved it. |
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