Lucky for Vic Fangio I had jury duty last week. As a result I fell a bit behind on my real job and did not have time this week to type out my soliloquy on the state of the Denver Broncos. Trust me when I say, such a summary of invectives will require it’s own blog post when I get to it. Overruled.
Redirect…
All Hallows' Eve is upon us, which means NFL fans everywhere can finally dress like this and not have to explain themselves to the wife:
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| Mrs. Bloodaxe: "Babe, are you guys heading to Home Depot?" Mr. Bloodaxe: "No, honey. It's actually Halloween this time." |
The Raiders and Ravens are both Jehovah’s Witnesses and will not be partaking in this weekend's festivities.
Let’s carve out the Week 8 picks!
Green Bay (+6.5) at Arizona
In what may be the best thing we’ve seen on a Thursday night since NBC was rolling out a sitcom orgy of Family Ties, Cheers, and Night Court, the Pack and Cardinals give us 2021’s version of Must See TV.
The Packers will be without Davante Adams, which makes the Arizona Cardinals the only humans on this planet besides Big Pharma to benefit from a case of Covid. Yet in a world where I cannot fathom Arizona going 17-0, I have to start looking for games on the schedule where a Redbirds loss seems plausible. I have news for you: there are not many out there.
I was more than tempted to pick against Arizona here, but with the loss of Adams Green Bay is missing the guy who accounts for 70% of Rodgers' targets and 49% of the team's receiving yards. That’s huge. I do think they probably cover the six points, but Arizona should get the win in what will be a desert thriller.
Cardinals 34 Packers 31
Cincinnati (-10) at New York Jets
Last week the Bengals beat the Ravens in impressive fashion.
Now follow me here: the Ravens have beaten the Chargers and Chiefs but have lost to the Bengals and Raiders. The Raiders beat the Steelers and Ravens but lost to the Chargers. The Chargers beat the Raiders, Chiefs and Browns, but lost to the Ravens. The Steelers beat the Buffalo Bills but also lost to the Raiders and Bengals. The Bills beat the Chiefs and lost to the Steelers and Titans. The Chiefs lost to the Ravens, Chargers, Bills, and Titans. The Titans beat the Bills and Chiefs... yet lost to the Jets.
Therefore, the Jets are the team to beat in the AFC. Follow the science, people.
Since I have been steadfast in not following any science lately, and because this game will not be competitive, Cincinnati is the easy pick.
Bengals 35 Jets 3
Miami at Buffalo (-13.5)
In 6 losses this season the Dolphins have been out scored by 81 points. Divided out, that’s 13.5 points per game. And you wonder how the Vegas algorithms work.
Last time they played the Bills, it was an embarrassing 35-0 shellacking at home in front of all 900 of their fans. This one will be in Orchard Park against the best team in the AFC coming off two weeks rest and a heartbreaking loss the last time they laced them up.
I think a rested and eager Buffalo team is the easy play here.
Bills 36 Dolphins 20
Carolina at Atlanta (-3)
Matt Ryan has 10 TDs and just 1 INT in his last 4 games. I'm not sure Sam Darnold has anything close to this yet in his career. Still one more week before the Panthers get Christian McCaffery back so a rising Atlanta team is my pick.
Falcons 24 Panthers 13
Pittsburgh (+3.5) at Cleveland
Cleveland is basically playing with an entire offense of either really banged up starters or only sort of banged up backups. Pittsburgh meanwhile has found some steam and is coming off a two week rest.
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| The Browns' starters gather for this week's offensive meetings. |
Cleveland will be extra motivated at home and probably pulls out a close win, but I like Pittsburgh getting points if you have to bet it. Part of me can smell a Steeler upset so long as T.J. Watt has his way and their quarterback eats his Wheaties, but while Watt can be counted on to have a big game, Big Ben is just as likely to trade his Wheaties for a double burger.
Cleveland wins. Pittsburgh covers.
Browns 30 Steelers 27
Tennessee (+1.5) at Indianapolis
The last time these teams played the Colts had three red zone trips that netted just two field goals in what became a 25-16 loss in Nashville. Carson Wentz was still walking on double-wrapped glass ankles and the horseshoes were 0-3. Since then the Colts have gone 3-1 and if you consider the lone loss in that stretch was the night they miraculously blew a huge lead on Monday Night Football to the Ravens, we could be talking about the hottest team in the AFC here.
That being said, Tennessee has averaged just under 33 points per game in winning three straight by an average of 2+ touchdowns ever since their inexplicable loss to the Jets in Week 4. Two of those three wins were statement-makers against Kansas City and Buffalo, and one could argue these guys are the hottest team in the AFC.
Ladies and gentlemen, we have here what Keith Jackson could only describe as, "Ooh Nellie we got a dandy."
Don't bet this one unless you have the amygdala and prefrontal cortex of a base jumper. Just watch it and enjoy.
Titans 30 Colts 27
Philadelphia at Detroit (+3.5)
Despite pulling off two fake punts AND recovering an onside kick last Sunday, Detroit still found a way to lose. Clearly they are doing all they can to satisfy the football Gods. Also clearly, more proof that Gods of any kind do not like Detroit. However, because I am a stout practitioner of the Law of Averages, I continue to throw my shillings at these lovable losers. This week is no different:
Lions 27 Eagles 24San Francisco at Chicago (+4)
Garoppolo vs. Fields. Fields vs. Lance. Lance vs. Dalton. Freddy vs. Jason...
Not since a Kyle Orton-vs-Tim Tebow match up that I witnessed many years ago while watching through trembling fingers has there been a game with such scary quarterback goings on.
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| The last time we saw something this scary, Kyle Orton was out-Antichristing Tim Tebow in a 7-3 nail biter . |
The trouble for both of these teams is, no opposing coaching staff is going to lay awake sweating at night wondering if you are going to be starting Justin Fields or Andy Dalton or Jimmy Garoppolo or an under utilized Trey Lance. That, and for the most part both teams suck this year.
Sophie’s Choice strikes again.
Since the Bears just saw their survivor-ability chances go up with the announcement that head coach Matt Nagy will have to stay away from the sidelines with the Covid, I guess I'll take Chicago here. Confidence: Low.
Bears 17 49'ers 16
Los Angeles Rams (-14.5) at Houston
I think anytime a 6-1 team is playing a 1-6 one, the 6-win team should come away victorious. When the 1-6 team is also Houston, you can expect a blowout. Rams roll.
Rams 36 Texans 13
Jacksonville (+3.5) at Seattle
With that trip to London followed by the bye week, have you noticed Urban Meyer hasn't taken any lap dances from pretty co-eds lately? This must stand for something.
I'll pick Seattle solely on the laurels that they are not going to fall to 0-4 at home, but Jacksonville covers as 3+ underdogs.
Seahawks 19 Jaguars 16
New England at Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5)
Did you know that a Mac Jones led team has never lost to the Chargers? Yep. They are currently 0-0. But soon to be 0-1. Likewise, Justin Herbert has yet to lose to the same team twice in his young career. Since the Bolts lost last season to the Pats at Foxboro, this must mean Herbert’s team is destined to prevail.
Chargers 38 Patriots 17
Tampa Bay (-4.5) at New Orleans
At 6-1 and 4-2 all of a sudden this is not such an easy pick. Still, I will take Tom Brady to win by at least 5 pts over Jameis Winston and a Saints team that likely has an inflated sense of self-value after beating three average-to-crappy teams in New England, Washington and Seattle.
Tampa Bay is neither average nor crappy.
Buccaneers 35 Saints 24
Washington (+3) at Denver
While it is true Washington seems increasingly incapable of scoring more than 10 points on any given Sunday, it is equally true that playing the Broncos is a magical elixir to all ailing offenses. I can't trust any team who just lost to Cleveland’s backups, let
alone one who’s head coach continues to be out-smarted by everyone from
an interim first-timer to a former special teams guy still in his head
coaching infancy. Consider some of the men who sit at the NFL coaches table:
- Arizona has a coach who came in right after his team drafted Josh Rosen as their QB of the future. Cliff Kingsbury immediately enforced his coaching prowess and said, "Nope. I want Kyler Murray." They blew it up on his foresight and now have the best team in the league.
- Philadelphia's coach spent 5 minutes this week explaining his team's lack of results with astute contextual reinforcement, leadership, insight, and vision of a bigger picture.
- The Chargers’ youthful head coach provided a response to the John Gruden situation with sage words, integrity, new-generation awareness and verbal salve toward an entire culture of hurting people. His team plays like the very reflection of a group of men who respect their leader.
- Sean McVay inspires the Rams with a child-like passion for the sport, a brotherly love for his players, and a keen sense of tactics and strategy that seem light years advanced from my father's NFL.
- Cleveland, Cincinnati, San Francisco, Detroit, Green Bay... all have young leaders of men intent on doing things in new and refreshing ways.
- Indianapolis, Tennessee, Buffalo... all rising franchises who have recently installed war-generals at the helm who know how to go into the gridiron trenches and lead without fail, strategize without doubt, and adjust with the shifting winds of battle.
Denver has a guy who steps to the podium every Monday morning and says brilliant things like "We all need to be better."
We all need to be better? Whoaaa there, Don Shula.
I guarantee in this guy's living room there is still a VCR on top of the tv that has been flashing "12:00 AM" for the past 27 years because he hasn't figured it out yet.
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| This guy... |
I'm going to pick Denver to win simply to remind myself that I am still a fan, and because I'll be in the stands and I have a way of imparting my will towards wins for the men in orange. But there’s a better-than-50%-chance Fanny Pack Vic ruins it for all of us again. Washington covers the spread in a game that will surely disgust me throughout.
Broncos 21 Washington 20
Dallas (-1.5) at Minnesota
If Dak plays, Dallas is my pick.
If Dak doesn’t play, Minnesota is my pick.
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| Dak-Man Fever |
Cowboys 27 Vikings 24
New York Giants at Kansas City (-9.5)
I'm actually starting to think that Tampa Bay not only won the Super Bowl last year, but that they broke the Chiefs in the process. I also have a good buddy who drafted all Chiefs for his fantasy team, which happens to be named "Kiss of Death," and maybe he deserves all of the credit. Either way, KC is a straight up enigma right now and I can't stop watching with glee.
That being said, New York is about to feel the wrath of an embarrassed team looking to beat the crap out of somebody just to feel relevant again.
Chiefs 49 Giants 23
Bird. Dropped. Happy Halloween!
Last Week Straight Up Winners: 9-4
Current Season Total Straight Up Winners: 75-32
Last Week Against the Spread: 8-5
Current Season Total Against the Spread: 60-45-2
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