My favorite NFL Weekend of them all is here, but first a quick recap:
I notched a fairly pedestrian opening round against the spread last week, accompanied by my continued success of picking straight up winners. But let’s be honest, the best thing about Wild Card Weekend was watching the life cycle of the Dallas Cowboys play out before our eyes in glorious fashion yet again.
Much like the wonderment of witnessing bald eagle hatchlings emerge from their eggs, or a slow-motion Nat Geo shot of a honey bee sipping nectar from the stamen of a cone flower, the “beauty in nature” that is Dallas’s yearly diaper blowout for their fans is truly a sight to behold.
A quarterback draw with :14 seconds left and no time outs? What, did Pat Shurmur sneak his way into the Cowboys’ headsets and call that? I'm pretty sure he did. All I know is, as the beer bottles rained down on Jerry’s Field after the final whistle blew, all seemed right in the world. Queue the Louis Armstrong.
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| I see trees of green, red roses too, Dak Prescott slides, time runs out on the blue. And I think to myself… what a wonderful world. |
Speaking of things raining down on the field:
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| Going for a 2 point perversion. |
New England getting bitch slapped in the harsh Buffalo night as TB12’s dildo landed in the end zone courtesy of an upper deck sling shot was pretty cool too. (If you don’t know this hilarious tradition, Google "Tom Brady's dildo" sometime.) And here I thought that time a packed gym of enemy fans at Heritage High School slowly chanting "Sterrroids! Sterrroids!" at my 165lb self as I shot free throws was harsh.
But I digress. This is a family column.
Enough about things raining down on teams we all love to hate, there's more picking to do. And since the crap hole teams (Eagles and Steelers) and the incapable ones (Cowboys and Raiders) have all seen their Super Bowl dreams get tossed into a pragmatic trash heap like so many crumpled up cheeseburger wrappers from Ben Roethlisberger’s New Year’s dieting resolution, we can now move on to the contenders.
Fans of football, the Divisional Round Playoffs are here. And I’m in full Road Warrior mode!
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| The Road Warrior: The Bird gets ready to pick against some home teams. |
4. Cincinnati Bengals (+4) at 1. Tennessee Titans
As one who lands somewhere in the range of being too old for Snapchat but too young for a Life Alert bracelet, can I just tell you: I am sorta jealous of these Bengals. Generally speaking, they look like a fun squad that is too young to know better and too unruffled to care. You're feeling really good about the future if you're Cincy Fan.
Tennessee meanwhile, is kinda like Alanis Morrisette's music or a handful of raisins for me. Do I like them? Sure. Do I wince with uncertainty though when I say that? Yep.
This is probably the hardest pick for me this weekend. The Titans sort of backed into this #1 seed if you ask me, and let's be honest: if Kansas City hadn't crapped the bed in September or Buffalo hadn't done the same in October, Tennessee is probably no better than a 3-seed, possibly lower. Injuries have plagued them, and even though Derek Henry is back I just don't trust the chemistry coming off the shores of the Cumberland. These guys finished 4-1 down the stretch, but in that run struggled twice against the lowly Houston Texans. That’s a jagged little pill to swallow for this prognosticator. See what I did there?
Now. Cincinnati. Outside of last week they haven't really proven anything in the last 30 years and if anything gives me pause, it's that everyone in a striped helmet pretty much won their first playoff game six days ago. How can I expect them to go on the road and win another? Well, that's easy. Two reasons: 1) Again, they are too young to know better and B) They are in Nashville; not Kansas City or Buffalo. For a team that seems fearless, confident, and brazenly in love with who they are right now, I think they drew the perfect match up this weekend.
Tennessee's 25th ranked pass defense is gonna get toasted. Who dey!
Bengals 24 Titans 17
6. San Francisco 49’ers at 1. Green Bay Packers (-5)
Green Bay will be riding the wave of adrenaline that comes with knowing that all of their playoff games will be contested in the land of the frozen tundra this winter. Any chance of not making the Super Bowl will have to come in the form of an enormous upset from a bunch of outsiders surely not as mighty as the home team.
We just won't remind the Cheese that Tampa has a chiseled quarterback who is to football as a Spartan warrior is to taking Thermopylae. It happened last year. It could happen next week. For now though, it's Jimmy Garoppolo and not Tom Brady.
As far as Saturday night goes, Green Bay holds the higher ground. And to echo sentiments I have been laying down all season in this blog: Aaron Rodgers is primed to go out with guns blazing this postseason, and both middle fingers in the air when it’s all said and done.
San Francisco has had their fun, but this will be their third straight road game and I don't trust Jimmy G. against Aaron Rodgers anymore than I would trust Shawn Kemp against planned parenthood (it's funny because he had many kids with many women).
To say I'd be surprised if this isn't an easy Packer win would be an understatement. Green Bay rolls.
Packers 30 49'ers 17
4. LA Rams (+3) at 2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Generally speaking, picking a west coast team traveling cross country on a short week is never advisable. Neither is picking said team to show up in Florida and beat Tom Brady for a second time this season. Tough spot here as far as LA’s itinerary goes.
That being said, the one thing that jumped out at me last week while watching the Bucs dismantle the Eagles, was the alarming rate at which Tampa Bay’s offensive linemen found themselves rolling around clutching at broken legs like they were auditioning for a spot with Manchester United.
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| Tampa’s Offensive Line last week after every third play. |
Being extremely short handed on the O-line does not bode well against a Rams front four that includes Aaron Donald; not to mention Von Miller played his best game since Super Bowl 50 last Monday and appears to be back in full, Lombardi chasing form.
The Rams found their running game against Arizona —a huge development in my opinion— as taking the pressure off of Matt Stafford to be the next Jim Everett in Tinseltown just might be the key to how far LA can go. If they can find similar balance this Sunday, Sean McVay’s crew will be booking flights to Wisconsin come Monday.
Rams 30 Buccaneers 27
3. Buffalo Bills (+1.5) at 2. Kansas City Chiefs
If last weekend was any indication, Arrowhead Stadium might resemble that fireworks factory that exploded in Shanghai a few years ago by the time Sunday night rolls around.
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| Did someone drop a cigarette in the Roman Candle Factory again? Nope. That's just the Bills and Chiefs at Arrowhead. |
I really like the Bills here, even though I really hate the fact that picking Buffalo will mean I have three of the four road teams winning this weekend. That seems unfathomable.
But, they don’t call these The Bird Droppings for nothing, folks. And this has been an entire season full of unfathomables.
Buffalo not only has the best defense in the league, but one that they built specifically for beating Mahomes and the Chiefs. They were here last year, and they’ve sculpted this year’s road map for this very chance at redemption.
In a game that will surely be an orgy of offense, in the end I think the defenses will matter most, and one of them will need to make a final stand or produce a game-clinching turnover. Make it Buffalo for me. Throw in the fact that Kansas City will blitz almost as surely as there will be barbecue in the parking lots, and Josh Allen is free to run amok through the City of Fountains. If last year's AFC Championship game felt like Buffalo's young QB just wasn't quite ready... well... this year... he is.
If I have one red flag concern, it’s that Buffalo already went into Arrowhead once this year and beat the Chiefs. And I’m pretty sure that when I got my Masters in AFC West football, I learned that no one beats Kansas City in Kansas City twice in the same year unless John Elway is your quarterback. Welp. Add Josh Allen to the list.
I’m take wings over ribs this Sunday.
Bills 32 Chiefs 31
Enjoy the best games on the best weekend of the year! I’m just here for the gasoline… I mean, the picks.
Cheers!
Playoffs Straight Up Winners: 5-1
Playoffs Against Spread: 3-3
Season Total Straight Up Winners: 181-97
Season Total Against Spread: 147-128-3
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