Under normal circumstances, I usually spend the final week of the season desperately blogging picks aimed at salvaging my pick'em record and trying to gain some momentum heading into the postseason.
However, since I've had such a strong season and already clinched my spot in the playoffs, I'll be resting some of my picks this week in lieu of risking injury.
Seriously though, this was a strong finish for the ages! 28-4 straight up and 20-11-1 ATS for Weeks 16 & 17 combined?
I’d say I’m “dialed in” and picking my best picks when it matters most, but I know the prognostication game is a fickle one and can change directions at any time. So let’s just focus on keeping it rolling and nothing more.
With key players resting, final scores changing the landscape of the playoff seeding in real time, teams clinching and having little to play for as the brackets solidify, and others having nothing to play for at all, this is the week to bet 1st half spreads and walk away. Or don’t bet at all. Backdoor covers will be king today, so take the points if you must feed your gambling soul.
With 130 -One Hundred and Thirty!!- different seeding scenarios still possible in the AFC alone, this is truly an exciting time for several teams hanging on to hope, not to mention all fans of Rube Goldberg machines.
The regular season comes to an end over the next 48 hours. Here are the Week 18 picks!
Kansas City (-10.5) at Denver
A Chiefs win and a Tennessee loss gives KC home field advantage throughout the AFC Playoffs. Aside from the fact that Tennessee is playing the University of Houston Texans on Sunday, technically the outcome of that game won’t yet be known, so I fully expect Denver to get beat down into the bloody pulp of embarrassing shame they are.
Denver simply cannot score with these guys, and their usually relied-upon defense is missing it’s entire secondary it seems. Uh-oh.
Chiefs 31 Broncos 17
Dallas at Philadelphia (+4.5)
Dallas has clinched the NFC East and other than possibly moving up from the 4 seed to the 3 seed, there’s really not much to play for here other than to not blow out any knees or make Tony Romo’s out of anyone with a healthy back.
This game will be damn near apathetic on both sides.
Cowboys 16 Eagles 13
Pittsburgh (+3.5) at Baltimore
No Lamar Jackson for the 4th week in a row, which means the Ravens need a Tyler “Snoop” Huntley win, a Chargers loss, a Colts loss, a Dolphins loss or tie, and a partridge in a pair tree, in order to make the postseason.
Pittsburgh needs a far greater miracle of contingent and timely events than that, and they don’t even get to put in a fresh and eager young lad at quarterback. That being said, I like Big Ben for one last cover here.
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| If all of these things work, the Ravens are in! |
Cincinnati at Cleveland (-5.5)
No Joe Burrow for this one as the Bengals have decided to rest their signal caller in advance of the Wild Card playoff game coming in two weeks. Gotta hand it to Cincinnati: for a team not very often in these waters, they are already acting like they know what it's like to be here and what it takes to be "playoff ready."
Also, Joe Mixon has a case of the ’Rona.
Such a lack of fire power from the very team who's made it a tradition to be the antithesis of "fire power" reminds me I cannot pick a gang of Cincinnati backups, on the road, against a refined bunch of humans like Clevelanders. Not this weekend.
Browns 20 Bengals 14
Washington at New York Giants (+7)
Quarterback Mike Glennon dropped back to pass 17 times last week against the Bears. It went like this: strip sack, interception, sack, 4 yd pass, incomplete, 12 yard pass, strip sack, incomplete, 12 yard pass, 13 yard scramble, pass for 4 yard loss, incomplete, sack, strip sack, incomplete, incomplete, interception.
Sheesh. And I thought the Broncos’ offense was horrendous and unwatchable.
I’ll pick Washington to win, NY to back door the cover.
Washington 23 Giants 17
Chicago (+5.5) at Minnesota
At this point in the season, there is no reason to waste any brain cells on this game.
Vikings 27 Bears 24
Tennessee at Houston (+10.5)
Houston has knocked off the Chargers and these very Titans for 2 of their 3 wins this season. Tennessee's losses have come to playoff teams in New England and Arizona, as well as a resurgent Pittsburgh club... but also to the Jets who, coincidentally, have beaten the Bengals who beat the Chiefs who beat the Packers, who saw Ferris pass out at 31 Flavors last night.
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| Apparently it's pretty serious. |
If the Texans can topple the incumbent #1 seed in the AFC for the second time six weeks, then they will officially be the greatest crappy team of all the crappy teams in the NFL this season. I'm thinking no way. But I’ll take the points and assume the Texans cover the spread.
Titans 30 Texans 20
Indianapolis at Jacksonville (+15.5)
Apparently there is a real movement going on for all Jags fans in attendance to dress up like clowns in protest of what is going on in the Bold City of the South. Here’s an idea:
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| Fans in Jacksonville will bring a real “It” feeling to the stadium this Sunday. |
Green Bay (-3) at Detroit
Just like the Green Bay Packers, I am resting some of my picks this week while awaiting the Playoffs.
Packers 27 Lions 17
New York Jets (+16) at Buffalo
Same here.
Bills 26 Jets 13
New Orleans (-3.5) at Atlanta
The Saints are in with a win and a San Fran loss in LA against the Rams. Sounds very motivating, not to mention doable for a team who just two weeks ago shut out Tom Brady and the Bucs. Geaux Rams!
Saints 26 Falcons 20
Carolina at Tampa Bay (-8)
I’m resting this pick as well.
Bucs 20 Panthers 10
San Francisco (+5) at LA Rams
San Francisco is in with a win and since they won’t know know the Saints outcome I suspect the 49’ers will play inspired ball while scoreboard watching on the sidelines. Not sure if they beat a Rams team who is playing for a chance at the Division title and a home playoff game, but I will take the gold diggers getting 5 points.
Rams 31 Niners 27
New England at Miami (+6.5)
As I endure what will become the sixth straight season (and longest stretch of my lifetime) without a Broncos playoff game, I also wait to see what brilliant “rebuilding” blocks the Orange & Blue will dream up this offseason - their sixth attempt at building a winner since winning it all way back in Super Bowl 50.
Meanwhile, Bill Belichick lost the greatest quarterback the game has ever known and all he did was flip his entire roster in less than one full season; rebranding the Pats with a team full of youngsters and rookies who are immediately contributing alongside a first-year quarterback who is already light years ahead of several higher-touted rookie QB’s, including #1 overall Trevor Lawrence. Amazing.
I swear I can smell an annoying Super Bowl run coming out of Bean Town again.
Patriots 23 Dolphins 17
Seattle at Arizona (-5.5)
The Cardinals will be playing their arses off and hoping for a 49’ers win in LA, so I lean slightly towards an Arizona romp here.
Cardinals 27 Seachickens 12
LA Chargers at Las Vegas (+3)
The “Win-and-You’re-In” Bowl pits each of Denver’s last two opponents against each other with the 7th and final AFC playoff spot on the line. As much as they each wish they could be playing the Donkeys again this week, neither team will be so lucky.
This will be a shootout and I have to be honest, as much as Vegas has been through this season… from the Gruden firing to the Ruggs DUI incident, to Mark Davis’s haircut… it’s hard not to root for the Raiders to get into the tournament.
Did I just say that out loud? I’ll go shower off now.
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| The Raiders: they’ve been through more shit than Andy Dufresne. |
Raiders 34 Chargers 31
Bird Droppings, out.
See you next week for the Wild Card Playoffs!
Last Week Straight Up Winners: 15-1
Current Season Total Straight Up Winners: 165-91
Last Week Against the Spread: 10-5-1
Current Season Total Against Spread: 136-117-3
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