Shake It Off! The Bird’s Week 11 NFL Picks

Detroit has a two game winning streak. Buffalo has a two game losing streak. Josh Allen all of a sudden looks like Josh Rosen, Justin Fields is breaking all of Michael Vick's QB rushing records, and Colt McCoy just beat John Wolford (who?) to put the defending Super Bowl Champs in the NFC basement.

Click here: What the hell’s going on out there??

No wonder all of our picks suck lately.

Here at the nest The Bird went 5-9 ATS and did no better picking the straight up winners in Week 10, marking the worst single week I’ve had in the past two seasons.

With that kind of .350 winning percentage I now know what it feels like to be the Cincinnati Reds or one of Taylor Swift’s boyfriends for a week, and I’m not fond of being in such company.

Shake it off, Bird!

I’m still +16 Against the Spread on the season, and looking to bank a little coin while building on my 90-59-1 overall record as Week 11 kicks off.

LFG!

Bird’s Eye View 

Tennessee at Green Bay (-3.5)

Both teams got big wins last week, but Green Bay's was a cathartic rally vs. an NFC contender while Tennessee's was against the 1955 Fort Wayne Pistons.

Correlative visual of Tennessee’s offensive
opponent last week, the Denver Broncos. 

I guess, all things being equal, Tennessee won't get away with scoring just 17 points this time around. And I'll take Aaron Rodgers at home vs. Ryan Tannehill on the road every time. 

Packers 24  Titans 17

Philadelphia (-6.5) at Indianapolis

First off, I’d like to congratulate the Colts for their win last week against the Raiders. That was a game between two coaches, one of whom was completely unprepared. The other was Jeff Saturday.

That new coach smell will fade quickly though, as Philly rebounds this week.

Eagles 27  Colts 20

LA Rams (+3.5) at New Orleans

Picking this game is not for the faint of heart. Imagine asking Mr. & Mrs. Menendez who their favorite son was, and you have the right idea. 

“Neither.”

Saints 22  Rams 20

Chicago at Atlanta (-3)

As mentioned above, all of a sudden Justin Fields looks like the love child of Randal Cunningham and Michael Vick. I picked him up about 5 weeks ago in Fantasy, then immediately dropped him the following Tuesday. So of course he does. 

Then again, what good is having Randal Cunningham and Michael Vick for a mom and dad when you can’t even beat the Lions at home? 

Falcons 23  Bears 17

New York Jets (+3.5) at New England

Mac Jones has been, how shall we say, not very good. And Sauce Gardner has basically been the NFL’s version of Chick-fil-A for wide receivers; which is to say none are open on Sundays.

The Jets have a little Ralphie Parker-beats-up-Scut Farkus thing going on right now. They just punk’d the Bills and I have no doubt they want to erase 25 years of wedgies from the chowderheads too.

They may not win, but it’ll be a close divisional game. Ah, what the hell, this is Ralphie Freakin’ Parker we’re talking about!

Jets 23  Patriots 20  OT

Carolina at Baltimore (-13)

This is a line so high Baker Mayfield can’t even see over it.

Tiny baker. Big challenge. 

In a weather game pitting two run-heavy teams you normally take the points, the under, and a nap. But Lamar Jackson is straight cooking right now and Baker Mayfield is straight… bakering. 

I gotta go Baltimore big here.

Ravens 29  Panthers 13

Cleveland (+8.5) at Buffalo

Urgency, refocus, and what would have been 3 feet of snow should have all been at play here for Buffalo. Instead, the game gets moved to Detroit and now we’re all deprived of seeing fat, shirtless men in a blizzard yelling things.

Edge: Cleveland.

Bills 21  Browns 16

Las Vegas (+2.5) at Denver

The only thing clear about these two teams is that they unfortunately are not playing the Houston Texans enough. 

Both have beaten Houston. Both have lost to Indy. Denver beat Jacksonville, and the Raiders lost to Jacksonville. Raiders beat Denver. Rock beats scissors.

You can’t triple stamp a double stamp, Lloyd!
The Broncos and Raiders traveling through the 2022 season.

Since the Raiders just struggled vs. a team with a head coach who was four days into the job, and who’s never coached anything before in his life, I can only assume they’ll find easier treading against a team with an even more incapable coach than that.

History also shows they only need 17 points to be victors this day. 

Raiders 17   Broncos 16

Cincinnati (-3.5) at Pittsburgh

Cincinnati is the hottest of any of the 5-4 teams in the league; while in Pittsburgh a Minkah Fitzpatrick- and Najee Harris-less Steelers squad not fortunate enough to be playing the Saints again makes for a lukewarm feel at best.

Cincinnati is battling back from an 0-2 start to the season, in main part due to a shocking Week 1 loss at home to these very Steelers. It cost The Bird his first “Bet the Nest” loss as a matter of fact.

Well. To that I say: Revenge is a dish best served in all white unis. The Bengals go full-on albino tiger and I’ll watch this game in my Walter White tightie-whities as well.

Bengals 31  Steelers 17

Dallas (-1) at Minnesota 

Last week Minnesota snatched victory from the jaws of defeat, and Dallas snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.

This makes for a tricky diagnosis as Minnesota surely has a bit of a letdown here, right(?)… while Dallas must be eager to avenge a bad loss in a game they had all but won… right(?).

Vegas is as perplexed as I, setting this line essentially as a pk’em. One would think the home field advantage should set the 8-1 Vikes as favorites over the 6-3 ’Boys.

Not so.

Cowboys 28  Vikings 24

Kansas City at LA Chargers (+5)

As badly as the Chargers could use some Rivers-to-Gates right now, and as auto-pilot as the Chiefs are in the AFC West, the fact remains that the last 4 games between these two teams have been decided by 7 pts or less.

I don’t often look too heavily at trends, but something tells me here.

Chiefs 27  Chargers 24

San Francisco (-8) at Arizona

Seldom are the times when an entire team responds better for their backup QB than they do for the regular guy. I mean, don’t tell Drew Bledsoe that, but…

I guess all those Cardinals players really were sick of Kyler’s shit. And it showed!

That being said, did you know that a Colt McCoy led team has never lost to the 49’ers in Mexico? Yep. They are currently 0-0.

But soon to be 0-1.

Niners 30  Cardinals 20

Bet the Nest

Washington (-3) at Houston

Washington is flying high while the Texans endure another week of wondering what exactly their purpose in life is. Like Bill Murray in Groundhog Day, Houston fans roll out of bed this Sunday to live the same shit all over again.

The Houston faithful prepare for
another weekend of Texans football.

In just about every other scenario, I would guard against Washington having a let down after such a signature win last Monday night in Philly.

But not here. Not against Houston. And not in Chase Young’s return from his torn ACL. That presence alone will be motivation enough for the red helmets.

Commanders 22  Texans 17

Fox in the Hen House

Detroit (+3.5) at New York Giants

The Giants, at home, minus anything less than a touchdown against a team like the Lions feels like easy money. 

• Giants are 3rd in rushing; Lions are 31st against the run.
• Justin Fields just ran for 700 yards against the Lions.
• Saquon Barkley is a better running back than Justin Fields.
• Detroit hasn’t won back-to-back-to-back games since the Berlin Wall fell.

And yet…New York has their biggest game of the season four days after this one on Thanksgiving Day, in Dallas. Might they be “looking past” an easy home game against a crappy team?

Total trap. 

Giants 23  Lions 20

Just like those 18 points the Fort Wayne Pistons once dropped in an NBA game… and hopefully Coach Hackett come Monday…so too have you been: (Bird) Dropped!

Season Total Straight Up Winners: 90-59-1

Season Total Against the Spread:  83-67 

Lock of the Week Picks: 6-4

Trap Game of the Week:  3-7

Sh*t Happens, Man: A Russell Wilson Soliloquy & The Bird’s Week 7 Picks

What's the old saying? You can put lipstick on a pig, but at the end of the day Russell Wilson is still your quarterback?

Egads. I have so much to say here and yet, I don’t even want to. Ok, since you asked…

My general assessment, from an admitted “untrained eye,” is that DangerRuss, quite frankly, is done. And not for the reasons you would think.

In my opinion Russ Wilson is done because football no longer seems to be his priority. It’s been in front of our eyes since last April yet only now is it blatantly obvious. The social events, the commercials, the spur-of-the-moment trips to other states to surprise Ciara at her social events, the personal camera crew that follows him around, the charity functions, the Trump-like obsession with daily social media postings…

This guy is simply too involved in too many things for football to ever be the 100%, unequivocal priority. Which in many instances, doesn’t matter. But when you’re a $250 million dollar face-of-the-franchise organizational leader, it does.

Look. There’s no way an 11-year vet, Super Bowl champ and 9x Pro Bowler, should be this far behind in grasping an offense he was handed the owner’s manual to six months ago. Missed wide receivers streaking towards green pastures with everything but a ball in their hands. Non-Audibles when it is clear the current play is matched up against disaster. Check downs and misreads. Let’s ride hide.

RW3 simply isn’t eating, drinking, and sleeping football anymore, and hasn’t been since he got here. Maybe since even before he got here. 

Say what you will about crappy coaching and remedial play calling, this is the only thing that makes any logical sense to me. Because normally, quarterbacks of this caliber can hide those other things. Instead, Nathaniel Hackett looks more like Buddy Hackett because his quarterback is the guy at the talent show spinning plates.

RUSSELL WILSON HAS A LOT GOING ON
Oopsie. Almost lost the season there…Caught it!
 Let’s Ride promotional video: get back up there ya rascal!
Uh-oh, flight to LA to kiss Ciara on tv almost fell!
Get Well card for Garret Bowles, I’m comin’!

I dunno. Maybe it’s a stage-of-life thing. AT&T knows I don’t put as much relentless effort into my job as I did twelve years ago. And neither, it seems, does Mr. Unlimited.

Today’s young stars (Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, e.g.) exude a 24/7 passion and hunger—nay, obsession— for the game they play; Wilson, Rodgers and even the almighty Tom Brady used to as well. But now they seem distracted. Football is no longer the be-all, end-all in life. And maybe that’s the arc of life itself for quarterbacks (and telecommunication managers).

Tom Brady said it best to reporters this summer when he took an unexplained absence from Tampa’s preseason; an absence that we can now deduce was to care for personal matters at home: “I’m 45 years old, man. Shit’s happening.”

Unfortunately, for those of us with aging quarterbacks who once winged spirals with tameless hunger for records and rings, shit is indeed happening. Shit besides football. And it’s happening for the next 6 years in Broncos Country, so help us all. 

Anyway, Let’s keep riding, I guess… 

Last week Bird Droppings, Inc. shit the bed magnificently, going 5-9 straight up, and sullying my overall ATS record with a 6-8 mark betting the line. Hell, it’s almost as if I’m not eating, drinking, and sleeping my picks anymore! “Shit’s happening, man.” 

Sigh. Russell, Russell, Russell.

If you’ve read this far, perhaps you’d like to see some picks? And if not, that’s ok. Every other thought is about the plight of my Denver Broncos anyway. So the analysis is lacking.

Bird’s Eye View 

New Orleans at Arizona (-2.5)

I’ll take Arizona with a confidence level of “because they don’t employ Andy Dalton, who is 0-11 in his last 11 Prime Time starts.”

Cardinals 23  Saints 20

Was Melvin Gordon seriously crying on the sidelines Monday night? Well, at least he didn’t fumble.

Indianapolis at Tennessee (-2.5)

Since the Bills are on their bye week, we’ve come to the one game all season where I am forced to start the fantasy football QB on my roster who is not named Josh Allen. Oh, the horror.

Due to this, Matt Ryan (yep, my FFL guy this week) is all but guaranteed to smoke a turd on Sunday.

Titans 20  Colts 16

Wilson had minus -9 passing yards after halftime??

 

New York Giants (+3) at Jacksonville

Who would have imagined this being a completely viable matchup at this point in the season? I’ll really like the Giants getting points here, and on the heels of Saquon Barkley I’ll go ahead and pick them to win the Tom Coughlin Cup (which shouldn’t be confused for Tom Coughlin’s cup).

Giants 23  Jaguars 22

1st & 10: Latavius Murray for 5 yards. 2nd & 5: Murray for 4.5 yards. 3rd & < 1: Shotgun, spread it out & throw 13 yards downfield into the dirt. SMH.

Green Bay (-4.5) at Washington

No former Jeopardy host has ever lost consecutive games to Daniel Jones, Zach Wilson, and Taylor Heinicke, have they?

What is, “No?”

Packers 27  Commanders 17

Pass interference. Defense, Number 27. Ball will placed at the spot of the foul. First down! 

Detroit at Dallas (-7)

Any squad that allows 29 points and scores none of their own against a team with a rookie QB named Bailey Zappe making his first ever start can only be classified as God Awful. And that’s our Detroit Lions.

Dallas gets a shot in the arm this week offensively. Call it a Dakccination.

Cowboys 27  Lions 17

Did the Donkeys seriously just lose to a team who kicked 4 field goals with a kicker whose hamstring was rolled up like a snap bracelet?

Dustin Hopkins’ hammy demonstration.

Atlanta at Cincinnati (-6)

I’ll take Joe Burrow here for all the things I said above about dudes who are consumed with being the best damn quarterback they can be.

Bengals 31  Falcons 23

With 2:14 left in the game last Monday, Wilson was sacked on a blitz almost as soon as the ball hit his hands. The Chargers didn’t even try to disguise it. It all happened in less than 2 seconds and had a visual effect as if LA sent twenty men the moment the ball was snapped. HOW does a veteran QB with Russ’s experience NOT see that coming pre-snap, and audible out of the play?

Cleveland at Baltimore (-6)

Aw, the annual Art Model Bowl (which shouldn’t be confused for the Tom Coughlin Cup).

Cleveland looks every part like a team on the brink of folding it up for the 31st time in 32 years. 

And Baltimore? Well, as far as big leads are concerned, the Ravens blow them like a hooker at a bubblegum convention.

The Ravens lost each of these games 👆
otherwise they might be 6-0.

If they’re smart, Baltimore will keep it close or perhaps even let their opponent rush out to a 4th quarter lead this time. That way, they won’t have to worry about crapping themselves down the stretch.

Ravens 29  Browns 22

Still pondering that last Russell Wilson thought. Can we get an “Omaha!” or any kind of pre-snap audible there? A timeout even?

Tampa Bay at Carolina (+10.5)

Tom Brady may have shit going on, and trust me when I say impending divorce is a big concentration breaker… but this is Carolina and TB12 is coming off that embarrassing loss to Kenny Pickett and an atrocious Steelers team.

Bucs win, but last week I swore off of betting Tampa to cover anything over 8 points ever again for as long as I shall live.

Buccaneers 22  Panthers 13

So long as Denver’s offense keeps doing that thing they do, which is Nothing, I’d kill for a Kenny Pickett.

New York Jets at Denver (-1.5)

Here I’ve been making fun of Zach Wilson all season when reality is, he’s made it further than Sam Darnold, Joe Flacco, Mark Sanchez, and even Chester Copperpot to leading the Goonies to One-Eyed Willie’s treasure.

This is our time! Our time, down here.

If a ragtag bunch of youngins from Astoria can go into Lambeau and lay it on Rodgers and the Pack, then they can most assuredly go into Denver and be better than Wilson and the Broncos.

Against my better judgement (what’s new?), I’m going to pick Denver one last time to win, but it’ll be uglier than Mama Fratelli. Jets cover.

Broncos 17  Jets 15

Not to beat a tired drum, but watch the QB’s in this one. Which one is “at work” for the 12th straight year on a Sunday and has a “thing” to attend to later with the Mrs., plus a jersey signing and three Twitter accounts to update before Monday?

Seattle at LA Chargers (-5)

LA kickstarted their season last week and has a bye after this. All incentives for moving to 5-2 and setting up a second half run at the playoffs.

Chargers 30  Seahawks 20

Melvin Gordon plays only 9 snaps last week and essentially gets benched mid-game. He spends the wee hours of that night tweeting all over social media his desire to get out of Denver. Coach Hackett meets with Mr. Disgruntled on Wednesday and announces Melvin Gordon will start on Sunday. What the hell?

Kansas City at San Francisco (+3)

Don’t look now but the Chiefs are in a tight spot on their schedule. Out of sheer hatred for other AFC West teams I’m gonna lean toward San Fran’s defense at home, coming off an embarrassing loss to Atlanta, and Kansas City’s growing tendency to look like normal human beings at times this season. 

Niners cover as home dogs. I’m gonna will my desire that they pull off the upset altogether.

49’ers 24  Chiefs 23

Coach Hackett. 🙄

Pittsburgh at Miami (-6.5)

For a moment there this season the Dolphins were interesting and sexy. Now they are slightly less interesting and the exact opposite of sexy.

This kind of makes them like Kelly McGillis.

Left: Miami with Tua Tagovailoa. 
Right: Miami without Tua Tagovailoa.

Since Tua is back, I’ll go with sexy Miami.

Dolphins 23  Steelers 16

Chicago at New England (-8)

One team has rattled off three wins in a row by an accumulated score of 67-15. Their only loss in the past month was on the road to a respectable opponent on the day we all learned who Bailey Zappe is.

 

The other team is 2-4 and coming off a 12-7 loss to those juggernauts, the Washington Commanders.

Seems like easy math here.

Patriots 31  Bears 20

Bet the Nest 🔒

Houston at Las Vegas (-7)

If Las Vegas enjoyed trying to keep up with that fireworks show known as "Chiefs Football" in the Arrowhead night two weeks ago, imagine how much fun will be had playing with sparklers (Davis Mills & Co.) in the Nevada desert. Probably a lot.

Raiders 27  Texans 7

Fox in the Hen House 🪤

I keep looking at several of these games and more than a couple of spreads feel trappy. Since it is almost time to publish and I can’t make up my mind, I’m just gonna go with my gut and refer you all to my Jets-Broncos pick above.

Why on earth is the team with the all of the troubles documented in this blog —from overwhelmed quarterbacks to crying running backs, and everything inbetween— favored against an upstart team of young fire and energy and who just throttled Green Bay in Green Bay?

I’ll tell ya why. It’s a booty trap!

Holy Mary, Mother of God. There they are. The Week 7 Droppings! 

Season Total Straight Up Winners: 56-37-1

Season Total Against the Spread:  51-43

Lock of the Week Picks: 4-2

Trap Game of the Week:  2-4

Whaddya say, coach?

No Apologies: The Bird’s Week 4 NFL Picks

And just like that we’re at the quarter pole.

I went 10-6 straight up last week with a 9-7 ATS, which still classifies as “winning,” even if felt like an 11-10 march through quicksand. Personally, I blame the Bills and Chiefs for pretty much screwing all of us -including themselves- by not making good on what seemed like sure-fire spreads. Buttholes.

Yet despite falling right into it, I knew that KC line was a trap! 

As for the Broncos…

It’s becoming clearer just exactly what Russ
means when he says, “Let’s ride.”

I had to defend myself to several people last weekend for picking Denver, but I felt that one from the gut and not the heart. And let’s just say Jimmy G is who I thought he was.

Now. On the “sexy scale,” did Denver escape Sunday night looking like they chased a fart through a bucket of nails? Sure, you could say that.

But it also looked like the #1 and #2 defenses in the league to me; each had hella-games, and you should never apologize for getting a win like that against a team that should have been in last year’s Super Bowl.

As far as the picks go, this prognosticator doesn’t apologize for anything either. Um, except maybe for making fun of Brits again in my annual NFL London pick.

Let’s have a bit of the Week 4, ol’ chaps! Chip chip!

A Bird’s Eye View (picks and analysis)

Minnesota (-2.5) at New Orleans 

In a rare twist to the international matchup, the NFL sends a game to London that for once doesn’t include the Jaguars, Raiders or Lions. This can only be construed as our deepest American condolences for the Queen's passing.

Then again, having binged Vikings and The Last Kingdom all through the pandemic, I can see how sending over a team named after the Great Heathen Army subtly still counts as an eff-you to the crown. Well done, Roger Goodell. Well done.

This game is always hard to pick. It’s basically two teams who have jet lag in a place they don’t want to be, mucking it up in a stinky dark soccer stadium in front of a crowd singing pub songs and waving colorful scarves.

Dalvin Cook's injury is concerning, but when in doubt always trust in Jameis Winston to not take care of the football. Or, if it comes down to it, trust in Andy Dalton to take care of it but do nothing with it. Minnesota wins by more than 2.

The Great Heathen Army 24   Saints 16

LA Chargers (-5.5) at Houston

What the hell happened to the Chargers? One minute they are an offensive juggernaut playing with purpose and confidence, and the next minute they're suffering from NTPTSD (Norv Turner Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder). I mean, I know J-Herb's ribs were cracked and all, but seriously... did Norv take back over last Sunday?

I suspect they are favored here because even a one-armed Justin Herbert is better than a two-armed Davis Mills. That, and Houston just lost to the worst offense the NFL has seen since Tim Tebow was trying to make the single wing cool again.

Chargers 23  Texans 13

Not sure Houston’s offense could keep up
even if they were playing in the 1947 Cotton Bowl.

Chicago at New York Giants (-3)

The New York Giants disappointed last week.

The Bird watches in disgust as the Giants
bring down his pick’em stats.

I’m not sure how to pick these guys to cover 3 points other than to remind myself they are playing the Chicago Bears, who have an offense only the CU Buffs could be jealous of.

Giants 16  Bears 9

Seattle (+5) at Detroit

Yet again, Detroit managed to take certain victory and turn it into a gigantic pile of “we’ve been a bunch of losers ever since Bobby Layne retired.” Fortunately, they play the Geno Smth Seahawks this week. Unfortunately, we just can’t trust this organization to cover such a large number. 

Detroit’s quarterback the last time the Lions were
favored by this many points. I believe they 
beat the Chicago Cardinals 8-0.

Lions 24  Seahawks 20

Jacksonville at Philadelphia (-6.5)

Jacksonville has surprised me, and this does feel like a huge spread between two teams with a combined 5-1 record and who both beat the snot out of their opponents seven days ago.

Still, like I said last week: I am riding the Eagles and Jalen Hurts until I see a reason not to. Philly by a touch.

Eagles 31  Jaguars 24

New York Jets at Pittsburgh (-3)

On one hand, I hate the idea of Pittsburgh outscoring anyone by more than 3 points. On the other hand (and as a general rule in life) I always eschew betting on teams led by a 35 year old Joe Flacco (or a rookie QB on the road, should Zach Wilson finally grace us with his presence).

Steelers 20  Jets 16

Tennessee (+3.5) at Indianapolis 

If the same Indy team that round-housed the Chiefs and the same Titans team that laid eggs in Week 1 & 2 show up for this game, I like the Colts to cover and win here. 

And if my Aunt had a penis she would be my Uncle.

Tennessee got their Derek Henry fix going again last Sunday and they have a thuggish manor about them that the finesse Chiefs do not. Indy will find it was better to trade play-action with KC than it will be to trade body blows with Tennessee. I like the visitors getting points here as the underdog. If Henry gets going, they might even win.

Titans 20  Colts 17

Washington at Dallas (-3)

Just when you think the Cowboys are done, they plug in some guy named Cooper Rush, stagger back up, and fight like warriors.  

Just when you think the Commanders are done, they are done.

Cowboys 19  Commanders 13

Buffalo at Baltimore (+3.5)

To be honest, I can't tell if I'm more impressed by the Ravens or the Bills.

I'd like to say the Bills will rebound and avoid falling to 2-2, but Lamar Jackson is quite literally playing as if Michael Vick and Warren Moon had a love child 25 years ago and named him Lamar.

I’ll take Buffalo to win, but I like the Ravens to cover as home dogs here. 

Bills 28  Ravens 25

Arizona (+1.5) at Carolina

This is a tough call. Christian McCaffrey is a man amongst slightly lesser men and can single handedly keep the Panthers in the game. On the other hand, Baker Mayfield does really stupid shit at least twice a game and has the NFL’s lowest QBR.

I think the Cardinals beat the spread.

Cardinals 26  Panthers 23

Denver at Las Vegas (-2.5)

I’ll admit I thought that the Raiders were finally due for some resurgence back when Al Davis passed away. Get some newer, younger blood in there, move the team to Sin City, build a ginormous stadium, and hire a young buck from the coaching tree of the greatest patriarch and asswipe that ever walked a sideline.

Well, if you’re out there Al, please accept my apology. You guys suck no matter who is in charge, and in any city.

That said, I am currently running a thin string of eeking out Denver picks and my gut tells me the Raiders will play with a desperate urgency that Denver will struggle to match. Road divisional games are tough, and the offense in Denver has been less DangerRuss and more DangerMouse. So I’m reluctant to bet on my team here. 

Picking the Raiders always requires me to delouse and shower immediately after writing this blog and normally I don’t have time for that. Ugh. Cancel my afternoon calls.

Raiders 27  Broncos 24

New England at Green Bay (-9.5)

Mac Jones is out for a couple of weeks with the dreaded Shannon Sharpe's Disease— I mean, "high ankle sprain”—and I don't see any way that a non-cheating Belichick team can stay within 10 points on the road at Lambeau with a backup quarterback who throws more dirtbags than the bouncer at a Colfax Hooters.

Packers 34  Patriots 17

Kansas City (+1) at Tampa Bay

Stay away from this game.

You’ve got two proud teams both destined for the Super Bowl (according to most everyone outside of Buffalo) coming off of bad losses. Hurricane Ian won the week and there are too many other oddball factors to consider.

I guess for what feels like a field goal game that’s probably going to be played on a rain-soaked field somewhere in middle Florida, give me a Kansas City team who didn’t have to spend their prep week boarding windows in a Cat 5.

Chiefs 24  Buccaneers 23

LA Rams (+1.5) at San Francisco

Last week I correctly leaned on Jimmy Garoppolo to be extremely rusty (if you want to call it that), having not seen any game action since last January’s NFC Championship. I suspect this week will be similar, as it is Jimmy’s second preseason game essentially.

But what really turned last Sunday’s game from dog poo into steaming pile of dog poo for Jimmy, was when his left tackle Trent Williams went down. From that point on, the Denver defense drummed up memories of the Fearsome Foursome.

…not really.

LA no longer has Deacon Jones, Merlin Olson, Rosie Grier, and the other guy, but they do have Aaron Donald. I like the Rams here, not only as underdogs, but to win outright.

Rams 28  49’ers 20

Bet the Nest  (Lock of the week)

Miami at Cincinnati (-3)

Despite being on record that I don't think they will make the playoffs, I can't stop picking the Bengals. It's like I have this horrible, diseased, ugly tiger-striped monkey on my back. Well I'm not gonna beat my monkey this week and neither are the Dolphins.

Tua Tagovailoa's health is a question here, so is Jaylen Waddle’s. Last week their defense was on the field for 90 (ninety!) plays in a heat index 105° game, and now they fly out of the eye of a hurricane on a short week to play the AFC Champs?

This feels like all Bengals to me.

Bengals 34  Dolphins 20

Fox in the Hen House  (Trap game of the week)

Cleveland (-1.5) at Atlanta 

Cleveland should really be 3-0. Atlanta could really be 0-3.

I have no Cleveland Browns on my fantasy team and I play the guy in my league who has Nick Chubb. Conversely, I have two Atlanta Falcons on my roster so I can almost assuredly count on them to suck.

Why Cleveland and their NFL’s best rushing attack is favored by nary a point against an uninspired Falcons team ranked 17th against the run is beyond me.

Unless… it’s a trap?

I’m feeling good about the Browns this week.
Why do I feel like this could be me?

Browns 24  Falcons 17

Thanks for having some droppings with your tea and crumpets! Jimmy likes the Bird Droppings!

Season Total Straight Up Winners: 28-19-1

Season Total Against the Spread:  24-24

Lock of the Week Picks: 1-2

Trap Game of the Week:  1-2