Shake It Off! The Bird’s Week 11 NFL Picks

Detroit has a two game winning streak. Buffalo has a two game losing streak. Josh Allen all of a sudden looks like Josh Rosen, Justin Fields is breaking all of Michael Vick's QB rushing records, and Colt McCoy just beat John Wolford (who?) to put the defending Super Bowl Champs in the NFC basement.

Click here: What the hell’s going on out there??

No wonder all of our picks suck lately.

Here at the nest The Bird went 5-9 ATS and did no better picking the straight up winners in Week 10, marking the worst single week I’ve had in the past two seasons.

With that kind of .350 winning percentage I now know what it feels like to be the Cincinnati Reds or one of Taylor Swift’s boyfriends for a week, and I’m not fond of being in such company.

Shake it off, Bird!

I’m still +16 Against the Spread on the season, and looking to bank a little coin while building on my 90-59-1 overall record as Week 11 kicks off.

LFG!

Bird’s Eye View 

Tennessee at Green Bay (-3.5)

Both teams got big wins last week, but Green Bay's was a cathartic rally vs. an NFC contender while Tennessee's was against the 1955 Fort Wayne Pistons.

Correlative visual of Tennessee’s offensive
opponent last week, the Denver Broncos. 

I guess, all things being equal, Tennessee won't get away with scoring just 17 points this time around. And I'll take Aaron Rodgers at home vs. Ryan Tannehill on the road every time. 

Packers 24  Titans 17

Philadelphia (-6.5) at Indianapolis

First off, I’d like to congratulate the Colts for their win last week against the Raiders. That was a game between two coaches, one of whom was completely unprepared. The other was Jeff Saturday.

That new coach smell will fade quickly though, as Philly rebounds this week.

Eagles 27  Colts 20

LA Rams (+3.5) at New Orleans

Picking this game is not for the faint of heart. Imagine asking Mr. & Mrs. Menendez who their favorite son was, and you have the right idea. 

“Neither.”

Saints 22  Rams 20

Chicago at Atlanta (-3)

As mentioned above, all of a sudden Justin Fields looks like the love child of Randal Cunningham and Michael Vick. I picked him up about 5 weeks ago in Fantasy, then immediately dropped him the following Tuesday. So of course he does. 

Then again, what good is having Randal Cunningham and Michael Vick for a mom and dad when you can’t even beat the Lions at home? 

Falcons 23  Bears 17

New York Jets (+3.5) at New England

Mac Jones has been, how shall we say, not very good. And Sauce Gardner has basically been the NFL’s version of Chick-fil-A for wide receivers; which is to say none are open on Sundays.

The Jets have a little Ralphie Parker-beats-up-Scut Farkus thing going on right now. They just punk’d the Bills and I have no doubt they want to erase 25 years of wedgies from the chowderheads too.

They may not win, but it’ll be a close divisional game. Ah, what the hell, this is Ralphie Freakin’ Parker we’re talking about!

Jets 23  Patriots 20  OT

Carolina at Baltimore (-13)

This is a line so high Baker Mayfield can’t even see over it.

Tiny baker. Big challenge. 

In a weather game pitting two run-heavy teams you normally take the points, the under, and a nap. But Lamar Jackson is straight cooking right now and Baker Mayfield is straight… bakering. 

I gotta go Baltimore big here.

Ravens 29  Panthers 13

Cleveland (+8.5) at Buffalo

Urgency, refocus, and what would have been 3 feet of snow should have all been at play here for Buffalo. Instead, the game gets moved to Detroit and now we’re all deprived of seeing fat, shirtless men in a blizzard yelling things.

Edge: Cleveland.

Bills 21  Browns 16

Las Vegas (+2.5) at Denver

The only thing clear about these two teams is that they unfortunately are not playing the Houston Texans enough. 

Both have beaten Houston. Both have lost to Indy. Denver beat Jacksonville, and the Raiders lost to Jacksonville. Raiders beat Denver. Rock beats scissors.

You can’t triple stamp a double stamp, Lloyd!
The Broncos and Raiders traveling through the 2022 season.

Since the Raiders just struggled vs. a team with a head coach who was four days into the job, and who’s never coached anything before in his life, I can only assume they’ll find easier treading against a team with an even more incapable coach than that.

History also shows they only need 17 points to be victors this day. 

Raiders 17   Broncos 16

Cincinnati (-3.5) at Pittsburgh

Cincinnati is the hottest of any of the 5-4 teams in the league; while in Pittsburgh a Minkah Fitzpatrick- and Najee Harris-less Steelers squad not fortunate enough to be playing the Saints again makes for a lukewarm feel at best.

Cincinnati is battling back from an 0-2 start to the season, in main part due to a shocking Week 1 loss at home to these very Steelers. It cost The Bird his first “Bet the Nest” loss as a matter of fact.

Well. To that I say: Revenge is a dish best served in all white unis. The Bengals go full-on albino tiger and I’ll watch this game in my Walter White tightie-whities as well.

Bengals 31  Steelers 17

Dallas (-1) at Minnesota 

Last week Minnesota snatched victory from the jaws of defeat, and Dallas snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.

This makes for a tricky diagnosis as Minnesota surely has a bit of a letdown here, right(?)… while Dallas must be eager to avenge a bad loss in a game they had all but won… right(?).

Vegas is as perplexed as I, setting this line essentially as a pk’em. One would think the home field advantage should set the 8-1 Vikes as favorites over the 6-3 ’Boys.

Not so.

Cowboys 28  Vikings 24

Kansas City at LA Chargers (+5)

As badly as the Chargers could use some Rivers-to-Gates right now, and as auto-pilot as the Chiefs are in the AFC West, the fact remains that the last 4 games between these two teams have been decided by 7 pts or less.

I don’t often look too heavily at trends, but something tells me here.

Chiefs 27  Chargers 24

San Francisco (-8) at Arizona

Seldom are the times when an entire team responds better for their backup QB than they do for the regular guy. I mean, don’t tell Drew Bledsoe that, but…

I guess all those Cardinals players really were sick of Kyler’s shit. And it showed!

That being said, did you know that a Colt McCoy led team has never lost to the 49’ers in Mexico? Yep. They are currently 0-0.

But soon to be 0-1.

Niners 30  Cardinals 20

Bet the Nest

Washington (-3) at Houston

Washington is flying high while the Texans endure another week of wondering what exactly their purpose in life is. Like Bill Murray in Groundhog Day, Houston fans roll out of bed this Sunday to live the same shit all over again.

The Houston faithful prepare for
another weekend of Texans football.

In just about every other scenario, I would guard against Washington having a let down after such a signature win last Monday night in Philly.

But not here. Not against Houston. And not in Chase Young’s return from his torn ACL. That presence alone will be motivation enough for the red helmets.

Commanders 22  Texans 17

Fox in the Hen House

Detroit (+3.5) at New York Giants

The Giants, at home, minus anything less than a touchdown against a team like the Lions feels like easy money. 

• Giants are 3rd in rushing; Lions are 31st against the run.
• Justin Fields just ran for 700 yards against the Lions.
• Saquon Barkley is a better running back than Justin Fields.
• Detroit hasn’t won back-to-back-to-back games since the Berlin Wall fell.

And yet…New York has their biggest game of the season four days after this one on Thanksgiving Day, in Dallas. Might they be “looking past” an easy home game against a crappy team?

Total trap. 

Giants 23  Lions 20

Just like those 18 points the Fort Wayne Pistons once dropped in an NBA game… and hopefully Coach Hackett come Monday…so too have you been: (Bird) Dropped!

Season Total Straight Up Winners: 90-59-1

Season Total Against the Spread:  83-67 

Lock of the Week Picks: 6-4

Trap Game of the Week:  3-7

Let's Ride: The Bird’s Week 1 NFL Picks

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Nothing in the great circle of modern American existence so intensely rekindles hope’s flame like the beginning of the NFL season.

Please, take a moment to enhance the mood:

Click here to get pumped up!

In fact, a new NFL season is the only way that people living in decrepit places like East Rutherford can wash the collective bile from their mouths after having suffered the indignity of residing in such a locale for yet another year.

But enough about the rekindled aspirations of perennial losers from cities that smell like poo. These are The Bird Droppings and last year we raked thru the NFL season with precision and astuteness, going 190-101 overall and 153-135-3 against the spread. 

Pats on the back aside, last year is behind us. You can’t hit new heights by surfing old waves, so let’s grab a new one and hang ten. Looking ahead to 2022, what more can I say other than to parrot the war cry of my beloved Broncos’ new leader:

Bird Droppings…Let’s Ride.

A Bird’s Eye View (Select games and analysis)

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (-6.5)

First off. I am not one who believes the Bengals are going to be anywhere near as good as they finished last season. I still recall a Week 14 matchup last year where 7-6 Cincinnati visited 7-6 Denver in a game pitting two desperately average clubs playing for the right to remain “in the hunt” in the AFC. The Bengals won a 15-10 fart-chaser of a game and… well, we all know what happened from there.

That being said, I do like them this Sunday opening at home with some Queen City swagger not seen since The Bird was first growing arm pit hair and the Berlin Wall was crumbling.

Six and a half points is a hefty spread for any divisional matchup, but this trip to Riverfront Stadium is going to be hell for a hated rival who has spent the better part of Terry Bradshaw's existence beating the crap out of teams from Ohio. (Editor's note: The Bird knows it is no longer Riverfront, but he has a disease where he still refers to NFL stadiums by what they were called during his childhood.)

The flames of hope, excitement, and Steeler comeuppance will be fanned with great vigor this weekend and I think the pre-kickoff Jumbotron video montage of 2021’s Super Bowl run will be worth 7 pts alone. Did I mention Pittsburgh is following Mitch Trubisky into this jungle?

Take the Bengals, minus the points.

Bengals 31  Steelers 17

Tampa Bay at Dallas (+2.5)

The Buccaneers are widely considered to be the class of the NFC. They’ve been in the thick of the championship calculations for several years now, they’ve won a recent Lombardi trophy, and their QB is that soulless bastard who has played in more Super Bowls than twenty other teams combined. Their defense is young and stout, and they have an inspired Todd Bowles donning the coach’s headset instead of that guy who looked like he owned Jurassic Park. 

The Cowboys, last I checked, still have the ever-cerebral Mike McCarthy calling the shots and haven’t sniffed a Conference title since I was in college and the Spice Girls owned MTV and a spot on our fraternity wall.

That all being said, I like Dallas here. Allow me to explain: When the Cowboys are 7-3 and playing right into the hopes and dreams of their loyally stupid fanbase, look for them to crap the bed like Amber Heard and limp into their annual 8 win finish. Until then though, watch them get all of Cowboy Nation excited as hell. Dallas certainly covers. I predict they might even win outright. 

Cowboys 27  Buccaneers 24

Indianapolis (-7) at Houston

I think it's safe to say that the Cleveland Browns and Houston-area masseuses equally had the league’s most tumultuous off-season. Well then, the Houston-area football team had the most disastrous.

The Texans will sport new alternate helmets for select games this year. 

When your Plan B is a dude named Davis Mills handing off to a guy named Marlon while throwing to a bunch of schmendricks not named DeAndre Hopkins or Will Fuller, and your defense is a basic scheme of hoping the other team doesn’t realize JJ Watt has left, well… you can rest easy Colts fans and south Texas massage ladies.  

Matt Ryan’s Indy debut is going to go very well me thinks.

Colts 34  Dumpster Fires 17

 

Baltimore (-6.5) at New York Jets

Baltimore was 8-4 last year and in the driver’s seat in the AFC North before Lamar Jackson suffered his season ending injury and they lost all 5 of their remaining games. Let’s not forget that.

The Jets finished 4-13 with their quarterback of the future (who again has been sidelined before his second season even begins) and who apparently spends his off-field time boning his mom’s friends. To be fair, let’s not forget that either.

One team’s QB is back in action; healthy, eager to redeem his team’s title hopes, and in the motivational throes of playing in a contract year. The other team’s guy is out with a bum knee and in the motivational throes of giving his mom’s old college friend a candle lit back rub last night.

Easy peasy.

Ravens 27  Jets 17

Bet the Nest  (Lock of the week)

New York Giants at Tennessee (-5.5)

For 9 months Tennessee has had to live with the halitosis of winning last year’s AFC 1-seed and home field advantage, only to watch Ryan Tannehill channel his inner Kerry Collins and f— it all up.

Meanwhile Giants fans continue to hope that someday Daniel Jones will channel his inner Kerry Collins as a general sign of improvement. This is not good.

Look for the Titans to rage a little. 

Titans 27  Giants 9

 

Fox in the Hen House  (Trap game of the week) 

New England at Miami (-3.5)

Under normal circumstances, placing my confidence behind any team wearing aquamarine tights generates excessive reflux. Also under normal circumstances, anytime you can get points with a Bill Belichick Patriots team against any opponent as shitty as Miami, you should take them and run. 

I mean, who in the name of Sam Wynn Casino would ever pit a team that finished 7-10 against a perennial playoff team coached by Throw Mama From the Train and then make them nearly 4 point favorites?

Yet here we are, staring at the Dolphins as solid favorites going into the opener. *scratches head*

Despite all this, I think I get it. Miami is a horrible place to be this time of year, let alone while wearing football gear. With the eastern seaboard averaging a heat index that rivals satan’s living room, and the fact that since it’s Week 1 we can imagine more than 950 fans showing up, there should be a bona fide home field advantage at play. 

It feels like a trap, but clearly the smart money seems to be going toward the home team. I’ll bite. 

Dolphins 24 Patriots 20

Kill Two (or more) Birds with One Stone (The rest of the picks)

Buffalo at LA Rams  (+2.5)

Not since we all tuned in to see who shot J.R. has a season opener been so intriguing. You could bet either team here and not be called crazy, which is usually an indicator that you should stay away and just enjoy it. Bills 31  Rams 30

San Francisco at Chicago (+6.5)

Trey Lance vs. Justin Fields and one of the two has an O-Line that leaks like Edward Snowden at an NSA mixer. I’ll take Chicago with a back door cover but San Fran definitely wins. 49’ers 20  Bears 16

Philadelphia at Detroit (+4.5)

Restore the Roar.  Lions 26  Eagles 23  OT

Jacksonville at Washington (-2.5)

I’ve cancelled my cable package simply so I don’t accidentally see any of this game. Since I have the Jacksonville running back on my fantasy team, I feel safe picking him to suck and the home team to win. Commanders 23  Jaguars 20

New Orleans at Atlanta (+5.5)

‘Nawlins gets Jameis Winston back and I don’t know if that’s a good thing or a bad thing. The Dirty Birds roll with Marcus Marriota and I realize I am equally flummoxed on this too. Saints 30  Falcons 27

Kansas City (-5) at Arizona

Arizona’s roster resembles a MASH unit. Kansas City’s does not. Chiefs 31  Cardinals 17

Cleveland at Carolina (+1.5)

No one expects him to be Cam Newton, but if Baker Mayfield can drum up -at a minimum!- the fond memories of Steve Burlein or Jake Delhomme, Panther Nation will be happy. It’s also Week 1, which means Christian McCaffrey hasn’t broken or torn anything yet. Panthers 26 Browns 17

Green Bay at Minnesota (+1.5)

Green Bay seems to always start slow. And by “start slow” I mean “gets blown out in Week 1.”  Vikings 30 Packers 20

Las Vegas at LA Chargers (-3.5)

Too much fire power from the home team and I hate the visitors.  Chargers 31  Raiders 21

Denver at Seattle (+6.5)

If there’s one game all season that Pete Carrol and Seattle will be ready for, it’s this one. Six and a half seems like a big number to cover on this road trip so I’ll take the underdogs plus the points. Broncos 27 Seahawks 24  

And so it begins, my friends! Good luck!

The Short, Short Version: The Bird's Week 10 NFL Picks

Brevity beckons this week as The Bird is frolicking in the high country of the Rocky Mountains and only has time for some half-assed picks and some half-assed humor. Don't worry though, together they still make me one full ass.

Plus, at the 11th hour I accidentally deleted my entire write up for this week and had to start all over. So without further adieu, I present to you this week's Bird Droppings:

 

The Bird sanctimoniously delivers the short, short version.

Click Here: The Short, Short Version!

Week 10 is here and the picks are brief and to the point. Like Kansas City's defense, it should be pretty easy to rip through.

(Note: Cincinnati, Chicago and the Giants are all on official byes; Houston is taking their 10th consecutive week off as well.)

Here we go!

Baltimore (-7.5) at Miami

Apparently, so long as they aren't playing the Bengals, Baltimore can win games in a variety of ways and in the face of a multitude of adversities. Blowouts, comebacks, squeakers, 66 yard game winners, etc.

I'll take the team who has shown they can adjust and persevere to just about any tempo against the one who basically just sucks every week.

Ravens 30  Dolphins 20

Buffalo (-11) at New York Jets

It's almost impossible for me to imagine the Bills losing back-to-back games against such gutter dwellers as the Jaguars and Jets.

Bills 38  Jets 16

 

Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-10)

It's equally as impossible for me to imagine the Colts not taking advantage of back-to-back games against such gutter dwellers as the Jaguars and Jets.

Colts 28  Jaguars 17

 

Tampa Bay (-9) at Washington

I am not privy to the study habits of Ron Rivera vs. those of Bruce Arians, but in picking which coach will have done his homework enough to have his team prepared for an opponent after having two weeks in which to do so, I'm taking the dude who gets to send Tom Brady to take the test for him. Every time.

Buccaneers 31  Washington 20 

New Orleans at Tennessee (-2.5)

Just when we all thought the Derek Henry injury would pauperize the Titans' offense entirely, they march into L.A. like kings and beat the crap out of the Rams.

Meanwhile New Orleans still has major quarterbacking issues, and someone must've told Alvin Kamara he is on my fantasy team because he has stopped doing anything.  All of the above makes this an easy pick for me.

Titans 27  Saints 20

Atlanta at Dallas (-8)

I'll go on a hunch that Dallas gets completely re-calibrated on offense this week, and their defense will play with some heightened passion in the wake of last week's embarrassing loss to the Broncos.

Cowboys 37  Falcons 20

 

Detroit at Pittsburgh (-8)

The last time we saw the Lions they were getting hammered 44-6 by Philadelphia on Halloween.

Thanks to the bye Detroit has had an extra 7 days to prepare for this week's ass whooping, so I expect they will do it even better this Sunday.

Steelers 31  Lions 11

 

Cleveland (+2.5) at New England

You gotta love Baker Mayfield. Dude just got dissed by Odell Beckham Jr., Odell Beckham Sr., and LeBron James, is playing essentially with one arm, and yet continues to inspire a team who just two weeks ago looked to be reverting back into their factory of sadness days. Plus he's doing it all while living in Cleveland and never quite sure when he might have Chubb.

Click to See: Baker, Baker, Hyped Up Maker

The Progressive commercial guy is growing on me. And I hate New England.

Browns 23  Patriots 22

 

Carolina at Arizona (-10.5)

Whether or not the Cards get Kyler Murray back this Sunday may not matter when the other team is trotting out Sam Darnold. It really doesn't matter when the other team is trotting out P.J. Walker.

Cardinals 27  Panthers 10

 

Minnesota at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5)   

The Bolts at home are the better of these two slightly-to-moderately better than average teams.

 

Chargers 30  Vikings 24

 

Philadelphia (+3) at Denver   

My therapist is working on my cynicism, so I will skeptically pick Denver to win and Philly to cover. Ahh, I feel so much better now.

Broncos 23  Eagles 21

 

Seattle at Green Bay (-3)   

Aaron Rodgers feels crucified as the victim of another Covid-related witch hunt AND gets to follow up Jordan Love's abysmal performance with a big dose of "I told you so" for Green Bay management? 

Look out, Seattle. Number 12 is about to go into "eff all of you" mode.

Packers 45  Seahawks 20

 

Kansas City at Las Vegas (+2.5)    

In Kansas City I see a team that is discombobulated at best. Had Aaron Rodgers played last week they might have lost 35-13 instead of that 13-7 win they eeked out.

And then there’s the Raiders...

Between the firing of their head coach, the tragedy of Henry Ruggs, and now the separation with a player who essentially threatened to murder a fan via a vulgar and disturbing Tik Tok video, I'm not sure I could trust them to win a jury trial much less a football game.

Chiefs 31  Raiders 30

Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at San Francisco    

The Rams are coming off an embarrassing loss at home to Tennessee and are desperate to keep pace with the Packers and Cardinals in the NFC. The Niners couldn't beat Colt McCoy last week.

San Fran remains winless at home and I predict things are about to get ugly in the Bay Area after this one.

Rams 31  49'ers 17

 

I'll be back to city living and wildly overthinking the picks next week, friends. Until then, good luck with your pools and bets!

 

 

Last Week Straight Up Winners: 9-5

Current Season Total Straight Up Winners: 91-45

Last Week Against the Spread: 6-8

Current Season Total Against the Spread:  72-62-2

 

Cheers! The Bird's Week 9 NFL Picks

Last week was one of those perfect storm Sundays where just about everyone who knows even a little bit about football got hosed as upsets and bad beats trickled in all over the place.

Meanwhile Diane Chambers walked into the bar with such analytical acuity as the Jets wear prettier helmets than the Bengals and, in real life there is no way a Falcon could ever beat a Panther, and found great rewards for her keen predictions!

Click This Link to See: Diane Chambers' Pick'em Tips!

The entire weekend, from key injuries to game-impacting horrible calls, seemed otherworldly.

Pittsburgh's kicker got a concussion, backup quarterbacks with less notoriety than the milk man were leading teams to unexpected wins, and the comedy duo of Vic Fangio and Pat Shurmur were running plays, stopping the clock, and fumbling the ball over to the other team with less than a minute to go and a 7 point lead.  I'm telling you, everything about Week 8 was absurd.

Let’s hope for an end to such silliness this weekend so that we may all get back on track. Diane would like to inform you that teams in blue, red, and pewter are sitting this week out as Detroit, Seattle, Washington and Tampa all have byes.

Week 9 is here. Cheers!

 

New York Jets at Indianapolis (-10.5)

I'm seriously having trouble figuring out the Indianapolis Colts. Are they a borderline-good team trapped in a borderline-not-as-good-as-I-think body?  Or are they a border-line good team who just happens to have some respectable losses against very good teams?

That dilemma sucks for picking this game because I'm just as equally confused as to how in the hell the New York Jets can lose 54-13 one week and then beat the number one team in the AFC the next.

The Bird needs a lifeline to figure this one out.

 

I guess through 8 weeks you kind of are who you are, although I’m learning the hard way that I still don't know what that means for either of these teams. I'll take the Colts to win and I’ll remind (convince?) myself that despite notching two huge upsets vs. Tennessee and Cincinnati, the Jets are still pretty damn shitty. Final answer.

Colts 30  Jets 14

Houston (+5.5) at Miami

I am almost too excited to pick here. Just kidding.

 

But in a match up of two crappy teams from two apathetic cities, who failed to make a DeShaun Watson trade in order to make this one slightly more entertaining for anyone unfortunate enough to have to watch it, it’s wise to just take the points and pray for your own soul.

Dolphins 20  Texans 18

Denver at Dallas (-9.5)

Even if the Cowboys are smart enough to rest Dak Prescot's calf for one more week and play that backup quarterback no one has ever heard of, I still think they are far superior to a Broncos team that just traded away the heart and soul of their franchise and who continues to torture their fans with pathetic coaching and a boring play book that is to football as snappers are to fireworks.

Pat Shurmur's Denver Offense. Stand back!

Cowboys 30  Broncos 17

 

Cleveland at Cincinnati (-2.5)

As if spending last week in the division cellar wasn’t bad enough for the Cleveland Browns, now Baker Mayfield is getting LaVar Ball’d by Odell Beckham Jr.’s dad and his head coach publicly used the “D” word in describing his team as desperate. Sans for the gift of playing the Denver Broncos a couple of Thursday’s ago, they could very well be on a four game skid and quickly reverting to their Factory of Sadness days.  

I also don’t feel any better about a Cincinnati squad whom just two weeks ago I picked to lose to Detroit under the very premise that the Bengals always have some Bungle in them. Turns out, I was a week too soon in predicting such bungling as last week the Bingle-Bengal-Bungles sullied their once-rising reputation by laying a Cincinnati steamer against the Jets. 

 

Heavy sigh. Ohio.

I’ll pick the striped helmets here, but only on the laurels that getting screwed by a laughable reffing decision last week is probably sufficient motivation for an angry win at home this week. Plus, the embarrassment of losing to the freaking Jets should spark the embers of redemption. 

Oh! And we're nearing the 32nd anniversary of my favorite impromptu public announcement speech in the history of impromptu public announcement speeches. Cincinnati it is!

 

 Click This Link to See: You Don't Live In Cleveland!

Bengals 27  Browns 23

 

Minnesota at Baltimore (-6)

It’s hard not to go with Baltimore here, coming off a bye and against a Vikings team who just lost a pivotal game at home to a guy named Cooper Rush.  

The purple Norsemen haven’t lost by more than 7 points this year, so the trend suggests taking Minnie plus the points. But who am I to follow lame trends? Baltimore wins and covers. 

Ravens 30  Vikings 20

 

Las Vegas (-3) at New York Giants

As a lifelong Bronco fan and Raider hater, even I have to admit feelings of deep sympathy for what has happened to the Silver & Black these past few weeks. 

 

I'll say this: the last time such upsetting misfortune settled in on Las Vegas, they took a serendipitous road trip to get away, rallied around each other, and beat the crap out of the Broncos. Since the Broncos have already beaten the crap out of the Giants, I can only expect a rallied Raider team to do similar.

Raiders 27  Giants 16

 

Atlanta (+7) at New Orleans

Calling simply on my lost nightmares of 2016, I cannot fathom why a Trevor Siemian lead team would be favored by a touchdown over a divisional rival and Matt Ryan, Rob or Rex Ryan, Meg Ryan, or any other Ryan who might be lining up across the way. 

 

Except for the Saints are starting to show a lot of talent in a lot of areas and just hammered Tom Brady and the Bucs… with Trevor Siemian. Good gawd, I’m so jealous of well-coached teams. 

Hunch says I should pick the fleur-de-lis here but divisional games usually produce close contests. I don't believe in Trevor Siemian enough to bet on the Saints, and I don’t trust the dirty birds enough to pick Atlanta to win. So a Falcons cover is the best I can convince myself of.

Saints 24  Falcons 20

Buffalo (-14) at Jacksonville

Just as I am learning to not trust the Chiefs and Broncos to cover any spreads as favorites, nor the Lions to beat any line no matter how many points you give them as underdogs; I am equally learning that Buffalo can absolutely be trusted to beat the crap out of crappy teams.

Bills 37  Jaguars 17

 

New England (-3.5) at Carolina

Normally I’d say a concussed and sidelined Sam Darnold is a blessing in disguise for the Panthers, but then I looked at their roster and realized the law firm of Love, Morgan, and Walker currently make up Carolina’s other quarterbacking options.

I can only assume Pats coach Mama Fratelli is licking her chops here. 

Pic of Bill Belichick preparing for
Carolina's quarterbacks this Sunday.

Patriots 23  Panthers 16

 

Los Angeles Chargers (-2) at Philadelphia

I'll admit my tendencies to lean towards teams who are still winless at home this late in the season despite having traditionally raucous home field advantages. You know, like Philly does, what with their proud history of throwing snowballs at Santa Claus and booing little children with cancer and all.

That being said, I like LA here coming off a bye well rested and well prepared against an Eagles team who has lost by an average of 8 points per game in three home losses already.

Chargers 31  Eagles 24

 

Arizona (-1) at San Francisco

It’s not advisable to bet this game as Arizona has stated both Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are game time decisions. Since I am picking three days before game time, I guess I’ll grab the Cardinals here and hope Murray gets to play.

Cardinals 26  49’ers 19

 

Green Bay (+7.5) at Kansas City 

With no Aaron Rodgers in the mix, this becomes a much more difficult game to assess for this prognosticator. I suppose if Jordan Love is going to make his NFL debut, who better to do it against than the team who has made all opposing quarterbacks and offenses look like Aaron Rodgers and Co. anyway? 

The football sadist in me would find extreme satisfaction in watching Kansas City fall at home to a rookie QB thrown into the fire four days before the game because of a Covid situation, and I won’t hide that I am actively rooting for this. 

That being said I’ll play it safe and pick the Chiefs to win a shootout, but because I can smell the stench of their defense from my seat here in Denver, I’ll go ahead and bet that Green Bay can keep up enough to keep it within 8. Just how well Jordan Love has handled his 18-month apprenticeship is the major wild card in this one though.

Chiefs 31  Packers 24

Tennessee at Los Angeles Rams (-7)

One team lost their most important player, Pro Bowler, and future Hall of Famer last week; the other added a Super Bowl MVP, Pro Bowler, and future Hall of Famer last week. Sound betting analysis if you ask me.

Rams 33  Titans 20

 

Chicago at Pittsburgh (-6)

Don't look now but Pittsburgh is on a roll, has reestablished themselves as a run heavy/tough defensive team of ham 'n eggers, and have notched three straight victories in their ascension from the AFC North basement. 

Chicago remains a leaf in the wind and they return their head coach --the only guy in the league calling worse plays than the nimrod in Denver-- back to the sidelines. Not a good look.

Pittsburgh is the obvious pick. 

Steelers 25  Bears 15

These have been your Week 9 Bird Droppings. From the blog where everybody knows your name. Cheers!

Last Week Straight Up Winners: 7-8

Current Season Total Straight Up Winners: 82-40

Last Week Against the Spread: 6-9

Current Season Total Against the Spread:  66-54-2