How to See Some Scoring: The Bird’s Week 12 NFL Picks

We went 11-3 picking the straight up winners last week; and had it not been for a game winning punt return with :05 seconds left, the phony-baloney Giants, and the crappy ass Packers, it very well could have been 14-0. 

Against the Spread, Bird Droppings Inc. went 9-5 and is now comfortably +20 games in the “making money” side of the ledger. 

Not to mention, the Thanksgiving Day Bird Droppings yielded a great start to Week 12.

Hey, speaking of giving thanks: Thankfully for Denver Bronco fans the World Cup is here. So we can all turn to the fast-paced game of soccer to finally see some scoring! Ba-dum-tsss!

Let’s bury a header or two into the back of the net, shall we?

Bird’s Eye View 

Denver (-1) at Carolina

Watching the Broncos this season has officially reached Frustration Level: Buying Taylor Swift Tickets.

Yep. We’re way past that limit.

I have no idea how any team not named the CU Buffs can be an underdog to this Broncos squad. I can only deduce that it has something to do with Sam Darnold being involved, so I guess I’ll lean towards the Donkeys like the idiot I am.

Broncos 15  Panthers 10

Atlanta at Washington (-3.5)

I think I’ve figured it out: Taylor Heinekie is a Civil War general’s beard away from being Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Coaches love him. Teammates love him. And despite falling somewhere between Gus Frerotte and Vinny Testeverde on the “Serviceable Quarterbacks” scale, he somehow wins in a way that you wonder if the regular starter could have done the same.

Washington keeps its mojo going against undermanned Atlanta.

Commanders 25  Falcons 17

Houston at Miami (-14)

Miami has punted 2 times in the last three weeks. Houston will match that in their first two possessions. Miami is coming off a two week break. Houston has taken all 11 weeks off thus far. I could go on and on….

Dolphins 31  Texans 10

Cincinnati at Tennessee (+1)

Toughest game of the weekend for this prognosticator. I don’t fully believe in Cincinnati and have been very vocal in my belief that last year’s AFC Champs won’t even make the playoffs this year. 

I have to think this is a roadblock game for the ugly helmets.

Titans 28  Bengals 24

Chicago (+7) at New York Jets

New quarterback for Gang Green, and rumor has it the Jets told Zach Wilson to not even suit up today. Wow. Coaches and teammates alike must really hate this guy.

That being said it is almost impossible to handicap this game. 

Mike White vs. Trevor Siemian -and/or- Nathan Peterman? Barf.

Bears 10  Jets 13

Tampa Bay (-3) at Cleveland

I haven’t looked up Tom Brady’s career record against the Browns, but given the results of the last few weeks I do know he is now 4-0 all time in international games and 0-1 with international women.

Since Cleveland is not an international woman, but does resemble downtown Beirut, I’ll take TB12 for the win here.

Buccaneers 19  Browns 14

LA Chargers (-2.5) at Arizona

Both of these teams are as shaky as Michael J. Fox on a roller coaster. But the Bolts are better.

Chargers 27  Cardinals 21

Las Vegas at Seattle (-4)

Even though they are 3-7, it remains very real that the Raiders are still 1-7 against teams not named the Broncos.

Seattle wins coming off an extra week of rest and prep. David Carr goes back to crying on tv afterwards.

Seahawks 27  Raiders 20 

LA Rams  at Kansas City (-15.5)

The Rams are folding faster than Superman on laundry day and now enter this game without Matt Stafford, without Cooper Kupp, and without the guy who’s been daylighting as their starting running back the past several weeks.

Meanwhile the Chiefs are completely stocked and need merely :15 seconds anytime they feel like scoring on you.

Even though I’m learning the hard way that games that look like sure blowouts this season are routinely becoming late covers for unsuspecting underdogs, I simply don’t know where LA is going to get their points from today.

I think Kansas City rolls here. And when I say “rolls here” I mean like Harlem Globetrotters vs. Washington Generals rolling. 

The Rams are about to get de-pants’d and globetrotted.

Chiefs 34  Rams 9

Green Bay at Philadelphia (-6)

If only they were smart, Green Bay would kick off their future with a canny little marketing campaign focused on the debut of Jordan “City of Brotherly” Love.

Instead, they keep rolling with #12.

Philly has looked beatable these past two weeks but with Dallas hot on their heels, I’ll take the birds to win and cover.

Eagles 30  Packers 20

Pittsburgh at Indianapolis (-2.5)

Time to pull out the “Don’t bet on crappy teams” gambit.

If they were getting more than two and a half points, I’d be tempted to bet Pittsburgh here as TJ Watt & Co. should be able to tee off on that statue otherwise known as Matt Ryan.

Matt Ryan gets on his horse in an attempted scramble.

But so long as they only need to eek out a FG win to cover,  I’ll take Indy at home as they seem to be slightly reinvigorated since the head coaching change.

Colts 22  Steelers 19

Fox in the Hen House

Baltimore (-3.5) at Jacksonville

A 7-3 team who has won four in a row, five of their last six, and is about to play their 3rd straight away game in either a dome or a warm weather city in the middle of shopping season; against a 3-7 team who has lost six in a row whenever the Raiders aren’t involved, and the former is only favored by two safeties?

It’s A Trap!

Probably got me hook, line, and sinker yet again… but I’m biting.

Ravens 23  Jaguars 17

Bet the Nest

New Orleans at San Francisco (-8)

San Fran not only looks like a formidable foe in the NFC, but they have done me right three times now when being at least 7 pt favorites.

The Saints, contrarily, haven’t come anywhere close to doing me right and have screwed me whenever I do take them with a side of points.

This is an easy pick for The Bird and I wouldn’t stop you if you followed me on it. Niners roll.

49’ers 28  Saints 16

These have been your Black Friday, World Cup Bird Droppings! Goaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaalllllll! 

Season Total Straight Up Winners: 101-62-1

Season Total Against the Spread:  92-72

Lock of the Week Picks: 7-4

Trap Game of the Week:  4-7

Serenity Now! The Bird's Week 8 NFL Picks

Serenity now! We are dangerously close to one of those “What Would Costanza Do?” issues, where The Bird deploys a stratagem of picking the exact opposite of what I think might happen because that seems to be the way of NFL karma lately.

An anemic Chicago offense hanging 40 on the Patriots in Foxboro? Aaron Rodgers being outplayed by Zach Wilson and Taylor Heinicke? A Tom Brady team falling from grace like a blind roofer?

Stop the madness!

We’re one more whacky week away from a kale shake cleanse to shock the system back into favored results, but for now we’ll just monitor the situation. My picks are suffering, but not totally. Yet…

On with Week 8!

Bird’s Eye View 

Baltimore (-1.5) at Tampa Bay

Tom Brady hasn’t been on a 3-4 team in twenty years. Which means he hasn’t been on a 3-5 team in at least just as long. Welp, he won’t be able to say that come Monday.

A lot of talk this week about how “exhausted” TB12 looks. As noted in last week’s blog: I agree.

Ravens 24  Buccaneers 17

Denver at Jacksonville (-2.5)

I’m still trying to fathom having a defense that has given up just 7 touchdowns in 7 weeks… and being 2-5.

Did you know… In six of their seven games the Denver Broncos have scored 16 points or less. Now consider that if they had just scored 18 points in those games… they would be 6-1 right now. Ouch.

Enjoy the soccer match, England.

Jaguars 15  Broncos 12

Arizona at Minnesota (-3.5)

In the “Game I’ve Given Almost Zero Thought To, However I Have a Strong Feel About” game of the week, I like Minnie here. Skol.

Vikings 31  Cardinals 27

Miami (-3) at Detroit

High up on the side of a mountain called "We Can’t Keep Sucking Forever, Right?” we have two climbers sharing a ledge. One is repelling down; the other climbing. Miami wins and covers. 

Dolphins 29  Lions 18

Chicago (+9.5) at Dallas

Ten points is a lot to give until you remember you’re giving them to the Bears. Well, that’s what I would have said a week ago.

Then Chicago pulls that crap last Monday and completely has everyone scratching their head.

Gimme a beat! The Bears have earned 
at least 9 1/2 points of respect.

Because they just bitch-slapped the Patriots in a way that Ditka would be proud of, I suppose the Janet Jackson “What have you done for me lately” theory applies. Pair that with Zeke Elliot’s bad knee, and I’ll take da Bears to cover as road dogs. They won’t win though.

Cowboys 26  Bears 17

Las Vegas (-1.5) at New Orleans

I’m going to go out on a limb and predict Andy Dalton only throws three interceptions this week. Still too many.

Raiders 27  Saints 23

Carolina (+4.5) at Atlanta

Within the fire sale trades and their interim head coaching situation, Carolina added to the chaos last week with a surprise shellacking of Tampa Bay that no one saw coming.

I think they have officially crossed over into “these guys are so shitty, no one wants to play them” territory.

Falcons 25  Panthers 21

New England (-2.5) at New York Jets

I don't want to alarm anyone, but it's Week 8 and the Jets have the second best record in the AFC.

The last time the Jets looked this good was
that time Broadway Joe was throwing moon balls
to Bobby Brady in Mike and Carol’s backyard.

I don’t like the fact that New York’s undefeated October has come with wins against the hapless Steelers, the trauma-ward Dolphins, the kooky Packers and the CU Buffs— I mean, the Broncos— but at some point you have to give credit where credit is due and recognize 4 wins in a row is 4 wins in a row and you should never apologize for the schedule makers.

That being said, they lost their two best offensive players last week, and they play a pissed off Belichick this week.

Pats rebound.

Patriots 23  Jets 20

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia (-10.5)

Try as they might with a rookie QB and injuries all over the place, Pittsburgh is in a really bad spot here.

It’s the second game of a back-to-back road trip, against the league’s best team coming off their bye, in a city that is punch-drunk on undefeated football and World Series baseball.

It won’t quite be Rocky-Clubber Lang, or even Thunderlips for that matter. But I could definitely see this being a Glass Joe kinda night for the visitors.

Green Corner wins with a knockout.

Eagles 34  Steelers 17

New York Giants (+3) at Seattle

Don't look now, but the Giants and Seahawks are putting together surprisingly remarkable seasons. With Daniel Jones and Geno Smith, no less.

I’ve found the G-Men to be very very good as underdogs this season, so I will continue to bleed blue whenever getting points with these guys.

As for picking a straight up winner:  *throws dart*

Giants 20  Seahawks 17  OT

San Francisco (-1.5) at LA Rams

What we've learned from Buffalo, San Fran, and Dallas in the past 2 months, is if you punch the defending champs in the mouth they will fold faster than Super Man on laundry day.

The Rams have not put up much of a fight
when challenged by the big dogs this season.

The last time these two met, it was less Tyson-Holyfield and more Tyson-McNeely. I like the gold diggers to get the season sweep of their NFC West rivals.

49’ers 24  Rams 21

Washington (+3) at Indianapolis

How do we celebrate the long-anticipated Carson Wentz vs. Matt Ryan Bowl?

With Taylor Heinicke and Sam Ehlinger of course!

Because Colts QB’s making their first start are 1-15 since 1970, I’ll go with the trend and pick Sam Ehlinger to lose. Which means Washington covers. But I don’t like this game, and if I were asked to bet on it, I’d make like Rosie O’Donnell at a salad bar and avoid it altogether.

Commanders 19  Colts 17

Cincinnati (-3) at Cleveland

In at least two counties and a few bars, this game is still known in Ohio as the "You Don’t Live in Cleveland!” game.

Click here to relive the greatest P.A. Announcement ever

Hard to go against the guys who don’t live in Cleveland right now, although I just heard Ja’Mar Chase is out for 4-6 weeks. Ugh. 

Bengals 27  Browns 23

Bet the Nest

Green Bay at Buffalo (-10.5)

I cannot be convinced to take anyone against Buffalo at this point, unless the spread is at least double digits and the underdog is allowed to schedule Tanya Harding's crow bar guy for a little pregame warm up with Josh Allen.

I’m going to assume the latter was not arranged.

For the second week in a row I am picking a double-digit favorite and calling them a lock. And for the second week in a row I am right.

Bills 37  Packers 20

Fox in the Hen House

Tennessee (-2.5) at Houston

Normally I would take Tennessee on the fact alone that they are 4-0 when they play mediocre-to-slightly-bad teams. Then I remembered that Houston is getting stomped by mediocre and slightly bad teams.

Nothing to contemplate here, except… why is the line only two and a half points???

Oh wait, I know:

It’s a Trap!

Titans 24  Texans 13

🔔 Ding! Ding! Ding! 🔔   Round 8!

Season Total Straight Up Winners: 64-43-1

Season Total Against the Spread:  60-48

Lock of the Week Picks: 5-2

Trap Game of the Week:  2-5