Serenity Now! The Bird's Week 8 NFL Picks

Serenity now! We are dangerously close to one of those “What Would Costanza Do?” issues, where The Bird deploys a stratagem of picking the exact opposite of what I think might happen because that seems to be the way of NFL karma lately.

An anemic Chicago offense hanging 40 on the Patriots in Foxboro? Aaron Rodgers being outplayed by Zach Wilson and Taylor Heinicke? A Tom Brady team falling from grace like a blind roofer?

Stop the madness!

We’re one more whacky week away from a kale shake cleanse to shock the system back into favored results, but for now we’ll just monitor the situation. My picks are suffering, but not totally. Yet…

On with Week 8!

Bird’s Eye View 

Baltimore (-1.5) at Tampa Bay

Tom Brady hasn’t been on a 3-4 team in twenty years. Which means he hasn’t been on a 3-5 team in at least just as long. Welp, he won’t be able to say that come Monday.

A lot of talk this week about how “exhausted” TB12 looks. As noted in last week’s blog: I agree.

Ravens 24  Buccaneers 17

Denver at Jacksonville (-2.5)

I’m still trying to fathom having a defense that has given up just 7 touchdowns in 7 weeks… and being 2-5.

Did you know… In six of their seven games the Denver Broncos have scored 16 points or less. Now consider that if they had just scored 18 points in those games… they would be 6-1 right now. Ouch.

Enjoy the soccer match, England.

Jaguars 15  Broncos 12

Arizona at Minnesota (-3.5)

In the “Game I’ve Given Almost Zero Thought To, However I Have a Strong Feel About” game of the week, I like Minnie here. Skol.

Vikings 31  Cardinals 27

Miami (-3) at Detroit

High up on the side of a mountain called "We Can’t Keep Sucking Forever, Right?” we have two climbers sharing a ledge. One is repelling down; the other climbing. Miami wins and covers. 

Dolphins 29  Lions 18

Chicago (+9.5) at Dallas

Ten points is a lot to give until you remember you’re giving them to the Bears. Well, that’s what I would have said a week ago.

Then Chicago pulls that crap last Monday and completely has everyone scratching their head.

Gimme a beat! The Bears have earned 
at least 9 1/2 points of respect.

Because they just bitch-slapped the Patriots in a way that Ditka would be proud of, I suppose the Janet Jackson “What have you done for me lately” theory applies. Pair that with Zeke Elliot’s bad knee, and I’ll take da Bears to cover as road dogs. They won’t win though.

Cowboys 26  Bears 17

Las Vegas (-1.5) at New Orleans

I’m going to go out on a limb and predict Andy Dalton only throws three interceptions this week. Still too many.

Raiders 27  Saints 23

Carolina (+4.5) at Atlanta

Within the fire sale trades and their interim head coaching situation, Carolina added to the chaos last week with a surprise shellacking of Tampa Bay that no one saw coming.

I think they have officially crossed over into “these guys are so shitty, no one wants to play them” territory.

Falcons 25  Panthers 21

New England (-2.5) at New York Jets

I don't want to alarm anyone, but it's Week 8 and the Jets have the second best record in the AFC.

The last time the Jets looked this good was
that time Broadway Joe was throwing moon balls
to Bobby Brady in Mike and Carol’s backyard.

I don’t like the fact that New York’s undefeated October has come with wins against the hapless Steelers, the trauma-ward Dolphins, the kooky Packers and the CU Buffs— I mean, the Broncos— but at some point you have to give credit where credit is due and recognize 4 wins in a row is 4 wins in a row and you should never apologize for the schedule makers.

That being said, they lost their two best offensive players last week, and they play a pissed off Belichick this week.

Pats rebound.

Patriots 23  Jets 20

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia (-10.5)

Try as they might with a rookie QB and injuries all over the place, Pittsburgh is in a really bad spot here.

It’s the second game of a back-to-back road trip, against the league’s best team coming off their bye, in a city that is punch-drunk on undefeated football and World Series baseball.

It won’t quite be Rocky-Clubber Lang, or even Thunderlips for that matter. But I could definitely see this being a Glass Joe kinda night for the visitors.

Green Corner wins with a knockout.

Eagles 34  Steelers 17

New York Giants (+3) at Seattle

Don't look now, but the Giants and Seahawks are putting together surprisingly remarkable seasons. With Daniel Jones and Geno Smith, no less.

I’ve found the G-Men to be very very good as underdogs this season, so I will continue to bleed blue whenever getting points with these guys.

As for picking a straight up winner:  *throws dart*

Giants 20  Seahawks 17  OT

San Francisco (-1.5) at LA Rams

What we've learned from Buffalo, San Fran, and Dallas in the past 2 months, is if you punch the defending champs in the mouth they will fold faster than Super Man on laundry day.

The Rams have not put up much of a fight
when challenged by the big dogs this season.

The last time these two met, it was less Tyson-Holyfield and more Tyson-McNeely. I like the gold diggers to get the season sweep of their NFC West rivals.

49’ers 24  Rams 21

Washington (+3) at Indianapolis

How do we celebrate the long-anticipated Carson Wentz vs. Matt Ryan Bowl?

With Taylor Heinicke and Sam Ehlinger of course!

Because Colts QB’s making their first start are 1-15 since 1970, I’ll go with the trend and pick Sam Ehlinger to lose. Which means Washington covers. But I don’t like this game, and if I were asked to bet on it, I’d make like Rosie O’Donnell at a salad bar and avoid it altogether.

Commanders 19  Colts 17

Cincinnati (-3) at Cleveland

In at least two counties and a few bars, this game is still known in Ohio as the "You Don’t Live in Cleveland!” game.

Click here to relive the greatest P.A. Announcement ever

Hard to go against the guys who don’t live in Cleveland right now, although I just heard Ja’Mar Chase is out for 4-6 weeks. Ugh. 

Bengals 27  Browns 23

Bet the Nest

Green Bay at Buffalo (-10.5)

I cannot be convinced to take anyone against Buffalo at this point, unless the spread is at least double digits and the underdog is allowed to schedule Tanya Harding's crow bar guy for a little pregame warm up with Josh Allen.

I’m going to assume the latter was not arranged.

For the second week in a row I am picking a double-digit favorite and calling them a lock. And for the second week in a row I am right.

Bills 37  Packers 20

Fox in the Hen House

Tennessee (-2.5) at Houston

Normally I would take Tennessee on the fact alone that they are 4-0 when they play mediocre-to-slightly-bad teams. Then I remembered that Houston is getting stomped by mediocre and slightly bad teams.

Nothing to contemplate here, except… why is the line only two and a half points???

Oh wait, I know:

It’s a Trap!

Titans 24  Texans 13

🔔 Ding! Ding! Ding! 🔔   Round 8!

Season Total Straight Up Winners: 64-43-1

Season Total Against the Spread:  60-48

Lock of the Week Picks: 5-2

Trap Game of the Week:  2-5

The Lucky, The Unlucky, and The Blessed: The Bird’s Week 3 Picks

Last week started out gangbusters!  Hot damn, by the time my Donkeys were polishing off the Jagwads I was sitting pretty at 7-3 against the spread through the first ten games of the weekend.

I was flying high, winning all my pools, and loving me some fun times watching NFL Football.

Then the late games commenced.

 

Footage of The Bird working on a pretty nice little Week 2 last Sunday morning. Then the late games happened.

 

What can I say? Time to rebuild…. Week 3 is here! 

Carolina (-7.5) at Houston

Thanks to Tyrod Taylor's injury the Texans are now left with some schlub named Davis Mills to run the show because Donald Rumsfeld apparently makes their personnel decisions. Houston has nothing but unknown unknowns at this point to put under center, and it’s only Week 3.

Carolina, meanwhile, has looked pretty solid against one very crappy team and one very iffy one.  Since Houston is both iffy and crappy, I will bet the Panthers here despite the enormity of a 7+ point spread on the road.

Baltimore (-7.5) at Detroit

Just like the growing amount of Americans content on breadlines and free handouts despite record-setting job openings, Baltimore lands in Detroit this weekend looking for some stimulus to supplement last Sunday’s big win against the Chiefs. 

Welp. There’s no freer giveaway than the Lions showing up on your schedule! 

Baltimore moves to 2-1 this weekend and beats what feels like a difficult spread for any road team to cover. Until you remember it’s Detroit.

The Ravens, just off the team bus and arriving at Ford Field.

 

Atlanta at New York Giants (-3)

Some things simply cease to change in my behavior no matter how ugly the lessons.  

Still drinking alcohol despite the unpleasantness of September 6th, 1996? Yep.  Using bungee cords even though I almost lost the ability to reproduce children in an "oops the hook slipped" accident years ago? I ain’t scared. Still betting on the Falcons after being burned in the ass over and over and over by these A-holes? You know it. 

I am done with Atlanta.  Lesson learned. Matt Ryan looks more like Matt Cassell and New York actually appears to me to be a team of do-gooders and try-harders, if nothing else. The Giants get off the schneid and cover the points. Beware however, there’s a 87.9% chance the dirty birds still find a way to %!@$? me.

New Orleans at New England (-3)

Despite my pick last week against the spread, deep down in places I don't talk about at parties, I knew the Patriots weren't going to fall to 0-2. Had they done so, they would be no better than the Jaguars in the AFC standings. And that would just be downright apocalyptic.

In retrospect though, 5.5 points was indeed way too small to even consider the Jets. For shame.

If Bill Belichick has hung his hat on anything not named Tom Brady during the 104 years he has coached, its that his teams are very skilled at making young and/or unproven quarterbacks look terrible.  I suspect this weekend will be no different, especially since Jameis got his groove back last week in the turnover column. Alvin Kamara is a wildcard, but the Pats are my pick.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-3)

Joe Burrow threw three consecutive passes in Week 2 that were picked off.  Three. Three! Consecutive! As if that wasn’t ominous enough for the striped helmets, Pittsburgh laying a turd and getting embarrassed at home after such a huge opening win in Buffalo is exactly what Cincinnati didn't need going into Week 3.

Now. This is where The Bird would normally wax poetic about how an extra-motivated Pittsburgh rallies and destroys a perennial division doormat. 

Except…  Ben Roethlisberger has looked every bit of his 39 years of age, and all of a sudden moves with the same swiftness as John Daly heading towards a salad bar.  #7 does not look good and as of blog posting time (Thurs), was questionable as he deals with a phantom pectoral issue for which he says he can’t even recall when it happened. (He’s playing coy.  I suspect he probably tweaked it reaching awkwardly for a Big Mac.)

Hmmm. I'm gonna "take" the Steelers here, even though it feels more like not wanting to take Cincy. Or perhaps it's just a conditioned response from 30+ years of the Bengals sucking. In any instance, avoid this game. If you must bet on it, keep an eye on the QB situation come Sunday. Pittsburgh might get a boost if Mason Rudolph has to start. I suspect the line may move some more too.

Indianapolis at Tennessee (-5)

Aside from some very shoddy luck my best friend had in his teen years, I don’t know that I’ve ever seen someone sprain both ankles at the same time, on the same play. But thanks to some driveway basketball in 1988 and Carson Wentz last Sunday, I can’t say that anymore. 

Carson Wentz in the Colts' training room.

After watching Derek Henry run through Seattle like a pitcher of Mexican tap water, I'm willing to accept that Tennessee's Week 1 stinker was just a case of the collywobbles. I think the Titans are a safe and suggested pick this Sunday.

Washington at Buffalo (-7)

The line on this one opened at Bills by 10 and has been bought down to 7 by Thursday night. Aside from some very sick people with a Taylor Heinicke fetish, I can't figure out why bettors are liking the visitors here.

Buffalo lost their home opener. Then they went on the road and kicked the ass of a divisional opponent 35-0. The Bills will not lose their second straight home game and they won’t keep Washington hanging around either. Take Buffalo by more than a touch.

 

LA Chargers at Kansas City (-6.5)

The loser here falls to 1-2 and I just don’t see any scenario where it’s the Chiefs. Justin Herbert is winging the ball around like Dan Fouts from my youth, but he's also having some early season interception issues and if there's any team in the league you can't give extra possessions to, it's Kansas City. 

KC got a rare taste of heartbreak last week and for that, I think they respond hugely. Chiefs are my pick to win by at least a touchdown.

Arizona (-7.5) at Jacksonville

The Jaguars won last year’s season opener and have since lost 17 straight games. Meanwhile, the Cardinals' offense is starting to look a lot like Kansas City-Desert Edition.  Not much else to dissect here. Make it 18 straight L's for the Jags.

Chicago at Cleveland (-7)

If you ask me, the football Gods peered down on the Land of Lake Erie last weekend and somehow bore tiny little lights of goodwill through the haze and stench of the Cuyahoga.  

An injured Tyrod Taylor couldn’t finish last week’s game right when the Browns were reeling and looked as if they might be on their way to a surprise loss. At roughly the same time 300 miles to the west in Chicago, Andy Dalton suffered an inexplicable bone bruise on a play in which he didn’t even get touched. 

Now it's true, these are not Virgin Mary statues weeping tears or Joseph of Cupertino type miracles. But for a football team and fan base that has suffered the emotional torment of Red Right 88, The Drive, The Fumble, Art Modell, plus a revolving door of 314 shitty quarterbacks ever since Bernie Kosar retired, even the atheists in the Dawg Pound are raising thankful hands to the heavens.

Cleveland wins and covers against a rookie QB making his long awaited first start in a place where they throw milk bones at you. 

New York Jets at Denver (-10.5)

Last week I took the Jets to cover under the pretense that you should never wager on a rookie QB on the road in the NFL. Well, it turns out the caveat is: unless that road leads to stinky old stadiums in New Jersey and your opponent wears green tights. 

This is a BIG spread for a Denver team that hasn’t sniffed the playoffs in half a decade, but a proud franchise with a historically awesome home field advantage and a quarterback with a 120 QBR for the first time since they ran that “Omaha” play on every down should all come together in a raucous home opener. That, and their opponent is the Jets. 

One team is averaging 25 points per game and the other is averaging 10. Simple math supports this bet. I’ll take Denver.

Miami at Las Vegas (-3.5)

Miami lost their quarterback. Then they lost their right tackle. Then a wide receiver. Then they lost to the Bills 35-0.

I don’t think I'd trust Miami with my car keys right now.

Much to my chagrin the Raiders keep it rolling against a hurting Dolphins team who is traveling 4 hours west into the Pacific time zone for a game against perhaps the hottest team in the league so far. 

For the life of me I can’t figure out why the line is only three and a half. Must be a trap. I’m taking the bait.

Seattle at Minnesota (+2.5)

As recent bad luck goes, only those Washington fans sitting underneath the ruptured sewer line a couple of weeks ago and a woman in Bolivia who found a finger in her cheeseburger last Monday can out-claim the Vikings’ bad fortune this September.

Minnesota would most likely be 2-0 if not for an unlucky fumble in OT in Week 1, and some comical kicking buffoonery last week in Arizona:

Click this link to see: funniest play call ever

Over shadowed in all of this is the fact that Kirk Cousins is playing his balls off, completing 72% of his passes, and the Vikings are averaging over 400ypg so far this season. No 0-2 team deserves this, even if they do wear purple. 

Russell Wilson has never lost to Minnesota, but if you believe in the Law of Averages or think Dalvin Cook can run the way Derek Henry did last week, Minnesotans won’t need to drink from Odin’s horn or don their lucky Mjölnirs to see a win here. At the very least, they’ll cover the number as home dogs.

Tampa Bay at LA Rams (+1.5)

This game opened as a 'pk' spread but by mid-week the line had shifted towards Tampa; clearly the result of Americans from coast to coast woo'ing and eating from the spoon of those tireless Tom Brady lovers on ESPN and such.

I love the spot LA is in here. Tampa has avoided any Super Bowl hangover in small part by having their first two games at home, and in large part by playing those games against pansy-asses like the Cowboys and Falcons. This, by contrast, is a very difficult road test against a team favored by many to win the NFC and who really seem to have their shit together.  

It's also worth noting the Rams have acted and looked like a team that is eager to prove their relevancy; running somewhat of a sprint out of the gates.  Tampa, meanwhile, like all Champions with a GOAT calmly leading the way, understand that the season is a marathon and not a sprint at all. 

A loss doesn’t phase the World Champs much less register on the litmus paper the same way it would for the Rams this early in the campaign. And, if the goal is to be in the lead 10% of the way through, you can’t go wrong betting on the anxious-to-succeed sprinter in Week 3.

Green Bay (+3) at San Francisco 

It only took 7 quarters, but finally the Packers as we know them have showed up for the 2021 season. And I'm starting to think Aaron Rodgers is either hopped up on pain killers, or the effects of dating Shailene Woodley are finally taking effect. 

Rodgers looks like the guy who's always asking to borrow ten bucks and saying, "I'll get you back next week, man.”

Meanwhile, in San Fran, Jimmy Garoppolo continues his Brian Griese-like career by completing 25 passes for 180 yards every week while looking like he has a Maximo Magazine photo shoot afterward.

I’ll put some coin on Aaron and the Packers here as underdogs. Get you back next week.

Philadelphia (+3.5) at Dallas

Ok, I’m just gonna say it: Assessing NFC East matchups is about as thrilling for me as picking between Sandia Sand, Tuscan Beige, or Sun Kissed Taupe for which color to paint the walls in my rec room.  The division sucks eggs. The teams suck eggs. And already by Week 3 there’s little doubt in my mind we’re all just watching to see which 7-9-1 or 8-9 team conquers the East and wins the right to get pummeled in the Wild Card Round by Green Bay or Seattle.

That being said, every time two of them get together (it was NYG & Washington last week), the game is always closely contested. Not exciting. Just closely contested.

On the merits of that thought process alone, I’ll assume this game will come right down to the wire and be settled by less than 4 points either way. Gimme the Eagles. They go better with the trim.

Until next week, my friends… stay healthy. 

Last Week Straight Up Winners:  13-3

Current Season Total Straight Up Winners: 23-9

Last Week Against the Spread: 9-7

Current Season Total Against the Spread:  18-13-1