How to See Some Scoring: The Bird’s Week 12 NFL Picks

We went 11-3 picking the straight up winners last week; and had it not been for a game winning punt return with :05 seconds left, the phony-baloney Giants, and the crappy ass Packers, it very well could have been 14-0. 

Against the Spread, Bird Droppings Inc. went 9-5 and is now comfortably +20 games in the “making money” side of the ledger. 

Not to mention, the Thanksgiving Day Bird Droppings yielded a great start to Week 12.

Hey, speaking of giving thanks: Thankfully for Denver Bronco fans the World Cup is here. So we can all turn to the fast-paced game of soccer to finally see some scoring! Ba-dum-tsss!

Let’s bury a header or two into the back of the net, shall we?

Bird’s Eye View 

Denver (-1) at Carolina

Watching the Broncos this season has officially reached Frustration Level: Buying Taylor Swift Tickets.

Yep. We’re way past that limit.

I have no idea how any team not named the CU Buffs can be an underdog to this Broncos squad. I can only deduce that it has something to do with Sam Darnold being involved, so I guess I’ll lean towards the Donkeys like the idiot I am.

Broncos 15  Panthers 10

Atlanta at Washington (-3.5)

I think I’ve figured it out: Taylor Heinekie is a Civil War general’s beard away from being Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Coaches love him. Teammates love him. And despite falling somewhere between Gus Frerotte and Vinny Testeverde on the “Serviceable Quarterbacks” scale, he somehow wins in a way that you wonder if the regular starter could have done the same.

Washington keeps its mojo going against undermanned Atlanta.

Commanders 25  Falcons 17

Houston at Miami (-14)

Miami has punted 2 times in the last three weeks. Houston will match that in their first two possessions. Miami is coming off a two week break. Houston has taken all 11 weeks off thus far. I could go on and on….

Dolphins 31  Texans 10

Cincinnati at Tennessee (+1)

Toughest game of the weekend for this prognosticator. I don’t fully believe in Cincinnati and have been very vocal in my belief that last year’s AFC Champs won’t even make the playoffs this year. 

I have to think this is a roadblock game for the ugly helmets.

Titans 28  Bengals 24

Chicago (+7) at New York Jets

New quarterback for Gang Green, and rumor has it the Jets told Zach Wilson to not even suit up today. Wow. Coaches and teammates alike must really hate this guy.

That being said it is almost impossible to handicap this game. 

Mike White vs. Trevor Siemian -and/or- Nathan Peterman? Barf.

Bears 10  Jets 13

Tampa Bay (-3) at Cleveland

I haven’t looked up Tom Brady’s career record against the Browns, but given the results of the last few weeks I do know he is now 4-0 all time in international games and 0-1 with international women.

Since Cleveland is not an international woman, but does resemble downtown Beirut, I’ll take TB12 for the win here.

Buccaneers 19  Browns 14

LA Chargers (-2.5) at Arizona

Both of these teams are as shaky as Michael J. Fox on a roller coaster. But the Bolts are better.

Chargers 27  Cardinals 21

Las Vegas at Seattle (-4)

Even though they are 3-7, it remains very real that the Raiders are still 1-7 against teams not named the Broncos.

Seattle wins coming off an extra week of rest and prep. David Carr goes back to crying on tv afterwards.

Seahawks 27  Raiders 20 

LA Rams  at Kansas City (-15.5)

The Rams are folding faster than Superman on laundry day and now enter this game without Matt Stafford, without Cooper Kupp, and without the guy who’s been daylighting as their starting running back the past several weeks.

Meanwhile the Chiefs are completely stocked and need merely :15 seconds anytime they feel like scoring on you.

Even though I’m learning the hard way that games that look like sure blowouts this season are routinely becoming late covers for unsuspecting underdogs, I simply don’t know where LA is going to get their points from today.

I think Kansas City rolls here. And when I say “rolls here” I mean like Harlem Globetrotters vs. Washington Generals rolling. 

The Rams are about to get de-pants’d and globetrotted.

Chiefs 34  Rams 9

Green Bay at Philadelphia (-6)

If only they were smart, Green Bay would kick off their future with a canny little marketing campaign focused on the debut of Jordan “City of Brotherly” Love.

Instead, they keep rolling with #12.

Philly has looked beatable these past two weeks but with Dallas hot on their heels, I’ll take the birds to win and cover.

Eagles 30  Packers 20

Pittsburgh at Indianapolis (-2.5)

Time to pull out the “Don’t bet on crappy teams” gambit.

If they were getting more than two and a half points, I’d be tempted to bet Pittsburgh here as TJ Watt & Co. should be able to tee off on that statue otherwise known as Matt Ryan.

Matt Ryan gets on his horse in an attempted scramble.

But so long as they only need to eek out a FG win to cover,  I’ll take Indy at home as they seem to be slightly reinvigorated since the head coaching change.

Colts 22  Steelers 19

Fox in the Hen House

Baltimore (-3.5) at Jacksonville

A 7-3 team who has won four in a row, five of their last six, and is about to play their 3rd straight away game in either a dome or a warm weather city in the middle of shopping season; against a 3-7 team who has lost six in a row whenever the Raiders aren’t involved, and the former is only favored by two safeties?

It’s A Trap!

Probably got me hook, line, and sinker yet again… but I’m biting.

Ravens 23  Jaguars 17

Bet the Nest

New Orleans at San Francisco (-8)

San Fran not only looks like a formidable foe in the NFC, but they have done me right three times now when being at least 7 pt favorites.

The Saints, contrarily, haven’t come anywhere close to doing me right and have screwed me whenever I do take them with a side of points.

This is an easy pick for The Bird and I wouldn’t stop you if you followed me on it. Niners roll.

49’ers 28  Saints 16

These have been your Black Friday, World Cup Bird Droppings! Goaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaalllllll! 

Season Total Straight Up Winners: 101-62-1

Season Total Against the Spread:  92-72

Lock of the Week Picks: 7-4

Trap Game of the Week:  4-7

Cheers! The Bird's Week 9 NFL Picks

Last week was one of those perfect storm Sundays where just about everyone who knows even a little bit about football got hosed as upsets and bad beats trickled in all over the place.

Meanwhile Diane Chambers walked into the bar with such analytical acuity as the Jets wear prettier helmets than the Bengals and, in real life there is no way a Falcon could ever beat a Panther, and found great rewards for her keen predictions!

Click This Link to See: Diane Chambers' Pick'em Tips!

The entire weekend, from key injuries to game-impacting horrible calls, seemed otherworldly.

Pittsburgh's kicker got a concussion, backup quarterbacks with less notoriety than the milk man were leading teams to unexpected wins, and the comedy duo of Vic Fangio and Pat Shurmur were running plays, stopping the clock, and fumbling the ball over to the other team with less than a minute to go and a 7 point lead.  I'm telling you, everything about Week 8 was absurd.

Let’s hope for an end to such silliness this weekend so that we may all get back on track. Diane would like to inform you that teams in blue, red, and pewter are sitting this week out as Detroit, Seattle, Washington and Tampa all have byes.

Week 9 is here. Cheers!

 

New York Jets at Indianapolis (-10.5)

I'm seriously having trouble figuring out the Indianapolis Colts. Are they a borderline-good team trapped in a borderline-not-as-good-as-I-think body?  Or are they a border-line good team who just happens to have some respectable losses against very good teams?

That dilemma sucks for picking this game because I'm just as equally confused as to how in the hell the New York Jets can lose 54-13 one week and then beat the number one team in the AFC the next.

The Bird needs a lifeline to figure this one out.

 

I guess through 8 weeks you kind of are who you are, although I’m learning the hard way that I still don't know what that means for either of these teams. I'll take the Colts to win and I’ll remind (convince?) myself that despite notching two huge upsets vs. Tennessee and Cincinnati, the Jets are still pretty damn shitty. Final answer.

Colts 30  Jets 14

Houston (+5.5) at Miami

I am almost too excited to pick here. Just kidding.

 

But in a match up of two crappy teams from two apathetic cities, who failed to make a DeShaun Watson trade in order to make this one slightly more entertaining for anyone unfortunate enough to have to watch it, it’s wise to just take the points and pray for your own soul.

Dolphins 20  Texans 18

Denver at Dallas (-9.5)

Even if the Cowboys are smart enough to rest Dak Prescot's calf for one more week and play that backup quarterback no one has ever heard of, I still think they are far superior to a Broncos team that just traded away the heart and soul of their franchise and who continues to torture their fans with pathetic coaching and a boring play book that is to football as snappers are to fireworks.

Pat Shurmur's Denver Offense. Stand back!

Cowboys 30  Broncos 17

 

Cleveland at Cincinnati (-2.5)

As if spending last week in the division cellar wasn’t bad enough for the Cleveland Browns, now Baker Mayfield is getting LaVar Ball’d by Odell Beckham Jr.’s dad and his head coach publicly used the “D” word in describing his team as desperate. Sans for the gift of playing the Denver Broncos a couple of Thursday’s ago, they could very well be on a four game skid and quickly reverting to their Factory of Sadness days.  

I also don’t feel any better about a Cincinnati squad whom just two weeks ago I picked to lose to Detroit under the very premise that the Bengals always have some Bungle in them. Turns out, I was a week too soon in predicting such bungling as last week the Bingle-Bengal-Bungles sullied their once-rising reputation by laying a Cincinnati steamer against the Jets. 

 

Heavy sigh. Ohio.

I’ll pick the striped helmets here, but only on the laurels that getting screwed by a laughable reffing decision last week is probably sufficient motivation for an angry win at home this week. Plus, the embarrassment of losing to the freaking Jets should spark the embers of redemption. 

Oh! And we're nearing the 32nd anniversary of my favorite impromptu public announcement speech in the history of impromptu public announcement speeches. Cincinnati it is!

 

 Click This Link to See: You Don't Live In Cleveland!

Bengals 27  Browns 23

 

Minnesota at Baltimore (-6)

It’s hard not to go with Baltimore here, coming off a bye and against a Vikings team who just lost a pivotal game at home to a guy named Cooper Rush.  

The purple Norsemen haven’t lost by more than 7 points this year, so the trend suggests taking Minnie plus the points. But who am I to follow lame trends? Baltimore wins and covers. 

Ravens 30  Vikings 20

 

Las Vegas (-3) at New York Giants

As a lifelong Bronco fan and Raider hater, even I have to admit feelings of deep sympathy for what has happened to the Silver & Black these past few weeks. 

 

I'll say this: the last time such upsetting misfortune settled in on Las Vegas, they took a serendipitous road trip to get away, rallied around each other, and beat the crap out of the Broncos. Since the Broncos have already beaten the crap out of the Giants, I can only expect a rallied Raider team to do similar.

Raiders 27  Giants 16

 

Atlanta (+7) at New Orleans

Calling simply on my lost nightmares of 2016, I cannot fathom why a Trevor Siemian lead team would be favored by a touchdown over a divisional rival and Matt Ryan, Rob or Rex Ryan, Meg Ryan, or any other Ryan who might be lining up across the way. 

 

Except for the Saints are starting to show a lot of talent in a lot of areas and just hammered Tom Brady and the Bucs… with Trevor Siemian. Good gawd, I’m so jealous of well-coached teams. 

Hunch says I should pick the fleur-de-lis here but divisional games usually produce close contests. I don't believe in Trevor Siemian enough to bet on the Saints, and I don’t trust the dirty birds enough to pick Atlanta to win. So a Falcons cover is the best I can convince myself of.

Saints 24  Falcons 20

Buffalo (-14) at Jacksonville

Just as I am learning to not trust the Chiefs and Broncos to cover any spreads as favorites, nor the Lions to beat any line no matter how many points you give them as underdogs; I am equally learning that Buffalo can absolutely be trusted to beat the crap out of crappy teams.

Bills 37  Jaguars 17

 

New England (-3.5) at Carolina

Normally I’d say a concussed and sidelined Sam Darnold is a blessing in disguise for the Panthers, but then I looked at their roster and realized the law firm of Love, Morgan, and Walker currently make up Carolina’s other quarterbacking options.

I can only assume Pats coach Mama Fratelli is licking her chops here. 

Pic of Bill Belichick preparing for
Carolina's quarterbacks this Sunday.

Patriots 23  Panthers 16

 

Los Angeles Chargers (-2) at Philadelphia

I'll admit my tendencies to lean towards teams who are still winless at home this late in the season despite having traditionally raucous home field advantages. You know, like Philly does, what with their proud history of throwing snowballs at Santa Claus and booing little children with cancer and all.

That being said, I like LA here coming off a bye well rested and well prepared against an Eagles team who has lost by an average of 8 points per game in three home losses already.

Chargers 31  Eagles 24

 

Arizona (-1) at San Francisco

It’s not advisable to bet this game as Arizona has stated both Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are game time decisions. Since I am picking three days before game time, I guess I’ll grab the Cardinals here and hope Murray gets to play.

Cardinals 26  49’ers 19

 

Green Bay (+7.5) at Kansas City 

With no Aaron Rodgers in the mix, this becomes a much more difficult game to assess for this prognosticator. I suppose if Jordan Love is going to make his NFL debut, who better to do it against than the team who has made all opposing quarterbacks and offenses look like Aaron Rodgers and Co. anyway? 

The football sadist in me would find extreme satisfaction in watching Kansas City fall at home to a rookie QB thrown into the fire four days before the game because of a Covid situation, and I won’t hide that I am actively rooting for this. 

That being said I’ll play it safe and pick the Chiefs to win a shootout, but because I can smell the stench of their defense from my seat here in Denver, I’ll go ahead and bet that Green Bay can keep up enough to keep it within 8. Just how well Jordan Love has handled his 18-month apprenticeship is the major wild card in this one though.

Chiefs 31  Packers 24

Tennessee at Los Angeles Rams (-7)

One team lost their most important player, Pro Bowler, and future Hall of Famer last week; the other added a Super Bowl MVP, Pro Bowler, and future Hall of Famer last week. Sound betting analysis if you ask me.

Rams 33  Titans 20

 

Chicago at Pittsburgh (-6)

Don't look now but Pittsburgh is on a roll, has reestablished themselves as a run heavy/tough defensive team of ham 'n eggers, and have notched three straight victories in their ascension from the AFC North basement. 

Chicago remains a leaf in the wind and they return their head coach --the only guy in the league calling worse plays than the nimrod in Denver-- back to the sidelines. Not a good look.

Pittsburgh is the obvious pick. 

Steelers 25  Bears 15

These have been your Week 9 Bird Droppings. From the blog where everybody knows your name. Cheers!

Last Week Straight Up Winners: 7-8

Current Season Total Straight Up Winners: 82-40

Last Week Against the Spread: 6-9

Current Season Total Against the Spread:  66-54-2