Countdown: The Bird’s Week 3 NFL Picks

Well…

Clearly my Donkeys are still working through some things.

I can’t be overly judgmental though because I too chose to not start any preseason games, hence my picks are suffering similarly. Difference is, I don’t have a ton of pre-snap penalties and clock management gaffes to show for it. Just a less-than-what’s-expected overall record for myself.

Then again, if the Raiders, Rams, Ravens, and Browns don’t all blow massive leads in the 4th quarter last week, I would have gone 10-6 ATS instead of 6-10, and could say I had a nice little Sunday.

Sigh. If “ifs” and “buts” were candy and nuts…

Anyway. The Week 3 picks start in:

Click here for the Week 3 Countdown

A Bird’s Eye View (picks and analysis)

Pittsburgh (+5) at Cleveland

God hates Cleveland and deservedly so. 

Watching the Browns break a league streak of 2,229 consecutive games where a team leading by at least 13 points in the final two minutes holds on to win, was about as Clevelandy a thing we’ve seen since that time the Cuyahoga River was on fire.

Never mind they were also the last team to lose so magnificently, when they blew a 21-7 lead in the final :32 seconds of a 2001 game against Chicago.

This is why they are called the Browns.

Which is also why its fitting they are streaming on Prime this week. Because they are hard to watch anyway. 

Steelers cover.   (FYI I’m only picking the Browns to outright win because I think it’s the only way Pittsburgh moves on from Mitch Trubisky and starts the Kenny Pickett era). 

-shrug-

Browns 16  Steelers 13

Baltimore (-2.5) at New England

I broke a cardinal rule last week: Anyone who bets on the Patriots to start a season 0-2 doesn’t know just how big of a dick William Stephen Belichick can be. I knew it the minute I got to my tailgate party last Sunday and saw the NE-PIT score.

The good news for me is, I don’t have to ponder if the Pats are going to possibly start 0-3 now, which makes it a lot easier for me to take Baltimore. Not to mention Lamar Jackson is just sick.

Ravens 24  Patriots 17

New Orleans (-2.5) at Carolina

In Week 1 Carolina sucked horribly in the first half. Last week they sucked horribly in the second half. This week I think they will just suck horribly the whole game.

Saints 27  Panthers 23

Detroit at Minnesota (-5.5)

I bet the Vikings are pretty pissed off about how badly they got ass-whooped in Philly last week. And for pretty much every year since 1946, one of the greatest cures for a team in need of redemption is playing the Detroit Lions. Minnesota sips that magical elixir this week.

Vikings 31  Lions 21

Houston at Chicago (-2.5)

So far I am not impressed with Chicago.

That said, the Houston Texans may have the worst offense this side of Boulder, Colorado. I would elaborate here but chances are my laptop battery would not last long enough to undertake such a task.

Chicago is back at home and Aaron Rodgers is 1,200 miles away in another time zone this week, which is a good thing.

Bears 20  Texans 12

Philadelphia (-6.5) at Washington

After years of watching Alabama quarterbacks dominate college football then come to the NFL and immediately start sucking, Jalen Hurts is looking more and more like the next Joe Namath or Kenny Stabler rather than the slew of A.J. McCarrons, Greg McElroys, Jeff Rutledges, Jay Barkers and however many other lame duck Crimson Tiders I can no longer recall.

I’m impressed. Until I see reason to do otherwise, I’m riding the Eagles; a team who looks like they smell blood in the NFC East and who have a silent assassin nobody is talking about under center.

Eagles 30  Commanders 20

Cincinnati (-5.5) at New York Jets

It is sensationalism of the highest order to label any game that takes place in Week 3 of the NFL season as a “must win.”

That having been said, if you are the Cincinnati Bengals, this is a must win.

Bengals 29  Jets 20

Las Vegas (-1.5) at Tennessee

Speaking of…

They say you can’t win a championship in September. But you sure as hell can lose one. After today one of these teams will be looking at a Herculean effort if they want to get back to the playoffs.

Normally I love a home dawg, but the Raiders have been competent and maybe even a little snake bit. Tennessee has just flat out sucked and may have also had their soul ripped right out of their ass last Monday in Buffalo. 

Raiders 27  Titans 24

Jacksonville (+3.5) at LA Chargers

Justin Herbert has popped rib cartilage, which is something I did to myself while coughing two years ago.

Don’t laugh.

For three weeks I couldn’t do mundane things like adjust my rear view mirror, point the tv remote, or even lift a beer to my mouth or wipe my ass unless I did so southpaw. I don’t know how in the name of Phyllis Rivers he can quarterback the Chargers without doing so either in great discomfort or on heavy drugs.

Also, Jacksonville is trending up. Which is a sentence that has never before been uttered in human history. This has to stand for something.

I’ll take the scrappy Jags to cover against a Charger team that is one sneeze away from Chase Daniel throwing to the wrong team all day.

Chargers 27  Jaguars 24

Atlanta (+1) at Seattle 

Marcus Mariota vs. Gino Smith! Finally it has happened! Remember this day my friends. Some day, when your grandchildren are sitting on your knee, they are going to ask where you were when this battle of titans occurred.

Photo from the last time two QB’s of this caliber met up on the gridiron.

I am almost too excited to pick here. All I know is, anytime you’re choosing between two mediocre teams with dipshit QB’s, it’s always wisest to take the team that’s getting points.

Falcons 24  Seahawks 21

LA Rams (-3) at Arizona

The Rams raced out to a huge lead last week then almost lost it, save for a Jalen Ramsey game-clinching interception in the end zone.

The Cards did the exact opposite, then stormed back from a 20-0 deficit to steal victory from the jaws of defeat in overtime.

I really don’t know which way to go here, but since Kyler Murray got bitch slapped by a fan after Arizona’s win and no one tried to do the same to Matt Stafford, I suppose the Rams are more likable.  

Yeah, sometimes I don’t even understand my logic.

Picking this game be like…

Rams 27  Cardinals 23

Green Bay (+2) at Tampa Bay

I kinda like the Pack here mainly because, apparently, when Tom Brady doesn’t get his kale shake and Bon Iver on vinyl in the mornings he can become quite the Karen.

Tom: “Did you hear the trash they were talking about Whole Foods?”
Mike: “Yeah. I punched that bitch for you.”

And Mike Evans will sit this one out for defending a white woman’s privileged behavior in New Orleans last week.

No Evans. Injuries. Turbulence. Green Bay covers. I think they win outright actually.

Packers 31  Buccaneers 24

San Francisco at Denver (+1.5)

Deep breath. Hear me out here.

No doubt it’s easy to pick on Denver these days.

Regardless of what you think about the play calling and general coaching awareness of one Nathaniel J. Hackett, do take heart: this line had Denver favored by 2.5 pts up until Jimmy Garoppolo became the 49’ers’ starter. Since then it has swung 4 points in the other direction, which tells us one thing: unless you think Jimmy G. is that great, Denver holds value here as a home underdog.

Their defense hasn’t given up a touchdown since the 2nd quarter of the Seattle game, and Russ now has two practice games under his belt. Garappolo does not. I’m also going to assume the Broncos don’t take 13 penalties for the third straight week. These are all difference makers if you ask me.

Oh. And if this were coming from the babbling mouth of a non-Bronco fan, it would sound more logical and less wishful thinking I assure you.

I don’t bet with my heart. But I feel this way about this game, and I do so objectively. If I’m wrong I will take up a monk-like commitment to self discipline starting Monday.

Broncos 23  49’ers 20

Dallas at New York Giants (-1)

Both of these teams are coming off of wins and have varying degrees of momentum heading into this matchup.

Call it a hunch, but I have a feeling Dallas may be feeling slightly overconfident, having punked the AFC champs just days after suspecting their season might be over.

And say what you will about the Giants, but it has been a long damn time since they have had to worry about taking an opponent lightly.

Are the Giants and their fans feeling less shame than usual after 2 games?  Yes. Is overconfidence likely? Such a notion is so foreign to these guys I have to assume No.

Giants 22  Cowboys 17

Bet the Nest  (Lock of the week)

Buffalo (-5.5) at Miami

Let’s be real. There is no betting app on any phone in the land right now where choosing Miami plus anything less than 10 points would be wise.

First of all, Miami was down 35-14 in the 4th quarter last week to Baltimore, before all hell broke loose in the Ravens’ secondary and the Phins were able to exact a miracle. If they lose that game 35-21 or 38-21 or whatever they should have lost by… the spread for this Buffalo game Sunday is not sixish points.

The Bills have won something like 20 straight games by double-digits, which basically means every week for two seasons they have been either destroying their opponent or losing to them.

Do I see them losing this Sunday? Nope. Following the trend.

Bills 41  Dolphins 31

Fox in the Hen House  (Trap Game of the week)

Kansas City (-5.5) at Indianapolis

Why in the name of Miley Cyrus’s headboard is this line so low??

I mean, Kansas City is averaging 35+ points a game, scoring like Ryan Gosling in a Sorority house, and go into this game with a ‘our weapons-vs-our opponent’s weapons’ ratio in the same neighborhood as Russia:Ukraine. 

The Colts, meanwhile, are averaging 10 pts per game against two suckhole opponents like Houston and Jacksonville. 

I see no scenario in this game where Kansas City doesn’t invade Indy and toss the little guys around by their skivvies.

How anyone who doesn’t think Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs aren’t worth 6 points against a Colts team that hasn’t scored six points since Week 1, is beyond me.. 

And every time Vegas puts up a line that seems too easy to be true, I have to look down at my feet.

Am I about to step into a trap?

Welp. I just compared the Chiefs to Vladimir Putin while suggesting a lot of scoring goes on in Hannah Montana’s bedroom. I guess I’m taking the bait. 

Chiefs 35  Colts 16

And there you have it. Let’s hope our winners all hang on for the full 60 min this week.

Season Total Straight Up Winners: 18-13-1

Season Total Against the Spread:  15-17

Lock of the Week Picks: 1-1

Trap Game of the Week:  1-1

Never have more eloquent words been spoken.

The Lucky, The Unlucky, and The Blessed: The Bird’s Week 3 Picks

Last week started out gangbusters!  Hot damn, by the time my Donkeys were polishing off the Jagwads I was sitting pretty at 7-3 against the spread through the first ten games of the weekend.

I was flying high, winning all my pools, and loving me some fun times watching NFL Football.

Then the late games commenced.

 

Footage of The Bird working on a pretty nice little Week 2 last Sunday morning. Then the late games happened.

 

What can I say? Time to rebuild…. Week 3 is here! 

Carolina (-7.5) at Houston

Thanks to Tyrod Taylor's injury the Texans are now left with some schlub named Davis Mills to run the show because Donald Rumsfeld apparently makes their personnel decisions. Houston has nothing but unknown unknowns at this point to put under center, and it’s only Week 3.

Carolina, meanwhile, has looked pretty solid against one very crappy team and one very iffy one.  Since Houston is both iffy and crappy, I will bet the Panthers here despite the enormity of a 7+ point spread on the road.

Baltimore (-7.5) at Detroit

Just like the growing amount of Americans content on breadlines and free handouts despite record-setting job openings, Baltimore lands in Detroit this weekend looking for some stimulus to supplement last Sunday’s big win against the Chiefs. 

Welp. There’s no freer giveaway than the Lions showing up on your schedule! 

Baltimore moves to 2-1 this weekend and beats what feels like a difficult spread for any road team to cover. Until you remember it’s Detroit.

The Ravens, just off the team bus and arriving at Ford Field.

 

Atlanta at New York Giants (-3)

Some things simply cease to change in my behavior no matter how ugly the lessons.  

Still drinking alcohol despite the unpleasantness of September 6th, 1996? Yep.  Using bungee cords even though I almost lost the ability to reproduce children in an "oops the hook slipped" accident years ago? I ain’t scared. Still betting on the Falcons after being burned in the ass over and over and over by these A-holes? You know it. 

I am done with Atlanta.  Lesson learned. Matt Ryan looks more like Matt Cassell and New York actually appears to me to be a team of do-gooders and try-harders, if nothing else. The Giants get off the schneid and cover the points. Beware however, there’s a 87.9% chance the dirty birds still find a way to %!@$? me.

New Orleans at New England (-3)

Despite my pick last week against the spread, deep down in places I don't talk about at parties, I knew the Patriots weren't going to fall to 0-2. Had they done so, they would be no better than the Jaguars in the AFC standings. And that would just be downright apocalyptic.

In retrospect though, 5.5 points was indeed way too small to even consider the Jets. For shame.

If Bill Belichick has hung his hat on anything not named Tom Brady during the 104 years he has coached, its that his teams are very skilled at making young and/or unproven quarterbacks look terrible.  I suspect this weekend will be no different, especially since Jameis got his groove back last week in the turnover column. Alvin Kamara is a wildcard, but the Pats are my pick.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-3)

Joe Burrow threw three consecutive passes in Week 2 that were picked off.  Three. Three! Consecutive! As if that wasn’t ominous enough for the striped helmets, Pittsburgh laying a turd and getting embarrassed at home after such a huge opening win in Buffalo is exactly what Cincinnati didn't need going into Week 3.

Now. This is where The Bird would normally wax poetic about how an extra-motivated Pittsburgh rallies and destroys a perennial division doormat. 

Except…  Ben Roethlisberger has looked every bit of his 39 years of age, and all of a sudden moves with the same swiftness as John Daly heading towards a salad bar.  #7 does not look good and as of blog posting time (Thurs), was questionable as he deals with a phantom pectoral issue for which he says he can’t even recall when it happened. (He’s playing coy.  I suspect he probably tweaked it reaching awkwardly for a Big Mac.)

Hmmm. I'm gonna "take" the Steelers here, even though it feels more like not wanting to take Cincy. Or perhaps it's just a conditioned response from 30+ years of the Bengals sucking. In any instance, avoid this game. If you must bet on it, keep an eye on the QB situation come Sunday. Pittsburgh might get a boost if Mason Rudolph has to start. I suspect the line may move some more too.

Indianapolis at Tennessee (-5)

Aside from some very shoddy luck my best friend had in his teen years, I don’t know that I’ve ever seen someone sprain both ankles at the same time, on the same play. But thanks to some driveway basketball in 1988 and Carson Wentz last Sunday, I can’t say that anymore. 

Carson Wentz in the Colts' training room.

After watching Derek Henry run through Seattle like a pitcher of Mexican tap water, I'm willing to accept that Tennessee's Week 1 stinker was just a case of the collywobbles. I think the Titans are a safe and suggested pick this Sunday.

Washington at Buffalo (-7)

The line on this one opened at Bills by 10 and has been bought down to 7 by Thursday night. Aside from some very sick people with a Taylor Heinicke fetish, I can't figure out why bettors are liking the visitors here.

Buffalo lost their home opener. Then they went on the road and kicked the ass of a divisional opponent 35-0. The Bills will not lose their second straight home game and they won’t keep Washington hanging around either. Take Buffalo by more than a touch.

 

LA Chargers at Kansas City (-6.5)

The loser here falls to 1-2 and I just don’t see any scenario where it’s the Chiefs. Justin Herbert is winging the ball around like Dan Fouts from my youth, but he's also having some early season interception issues and if there's any team in the league you can't give extra possessions to, it's Kansas City. 

KC got a rare taste of heartbreak last week and for that, I think they respond hugely. Chiefs are my pick to win by at least a touchdown.

Arizona (-7.5) at Jacksonville

The Jaguars won last year’s season opener and have since lost 17 straight games. Meanwhile, the Cardinals' offense is starting to look a lot like Kansas City-Desert Edition.  Not much else to dissect here. Make it 18 straight L's for the Jags.

Chicago at Cleveland (-7)

If you ask me, the football Gods peered down on the Land of Lake Erie last weekend and somehow bore tiny little lights of goodwill through the haze and stench of the Cuyahoga.  

An injured Tyrod Taylor couldn’t finish last week’s game right when the Browns were reeling and looked as if they might be on their way to a surprise loss. At roughly the same time 300 miles to the west in Chicago, Andy Dalton suffered an inexplicable bone bruise on a play in which he didn’t even get touched. 

Now it's true, these are not Virgin Mary statues weeping tears or Joseph of Cupertino type miracles. But for a football team and fan base that has suffered the emotional torment of Red Right 88, The Drive, The Fumble, Art Modell, plus a revolving door of 314 shitty quarterbacks ever since Bernie Kosar retired, even the atheists in the Dawg Pound are raising thankful hands to the heavens.

Cleveland wins and covers against a rookie QB making his long awaited first start in a place where they throw milk bones at you. 

New York Jets at Denver (-10.5)

Last week I took the Jets to cover under the pretense that you should never wager on a rookie QB on the road in the NFL. Well, it turns out the caveat is: unless that road leads to stinky old stadiums in New Jersey and your opponent wears green tights. 

This is a BIG spread for a Denver team that hasn’t sniffed the playoffs in half a decade, but a proud franchise with a historically awesome home field advantage and a quarterback with a 120 QBR for the first time since they ran that “Omaha” play on every down should all come together in a raucous home opener. That, and their opponent is the Jets. 

One team is averaging 25 points per game and the other is averaging 10. Simple math supports this bet. I’ll take Denver.

Miami at Las Vegas (-3.5)

Miami lost their quarterback. Then they lost their right tackle. Then a wide receiver. Then they lost to the Bills 35-0.

I don’t think I'd trust Miami with my car keys right now.

Much to my chagrin the Raiders keep it rolling against a hurting Dolphins team who is traveling 4 hours west into the Pacific time zone for a game against perhaps the hottest team in the league so far. 

For the life of me I can’t figure out why the line is only three and a half. Must be a trap. I’m taking the bait.

Seattle at Minnesota (+2.5)

As recent bad luck goes, only those Washington fans sitting underneath the ruptured sewer line a couple of weeks ago and a woman in Bolivia who found a finger in her cheeseburger last Monday can out-claim the Vikings’ bad fortune this September.

Minnesota would most likely be 2-0 if not for an unlucky fumble in OT in Week 1, and some comical kicking buffoonery last week in Arizona:

Click this link to see: funniest play call ever

Over shadowed in all of this is the fact that Kirk Cousins is playing his balls off, completing 72% of his passes, and the Vikings are averaging over 400ypg so far this season. No 0-2 team deserves this, even if they do wear purple. 

Russell Wilson has never lost to Minnesota, but if you believe in the Law of Averages or think Dalvin Cook can run the way Derek Henry did last week, Minnesotans won’t need to drink from Odin’s horn or don their lucky Mjölnirs to see a win here. At the very least, they’ll cover the number as home dogs.

Tampa Bay at LA Rams (+1.5)

This game opened as a 'pk' spread but by mid-week the line had shifted towards Tampa; clearly the result of Americans from coast to coast woo'ing and eating from the spoon of those tireless Tom Brady lovers on ESPN and such.

I love the spot LA is in here. Tampa has avoided any Super Bowl hangover in small part by having their first two games at home, and in large part by playing those games against pansy-asses like the Cowboys and Falcons. This, by contrast, is a very difficult road test against a team favored by many to win the NFC and who really seem to have their shit together.  

It's also worth noting the Rams have acted and looked like a team that is eager to prove their relevancy; running somewhat of a sprint out of the gates.  Tampa, meanwhile, like all Champions with a GOAT calmly leading the way, understand that the season is a marathon and not a sprint at all. 

A loss doesn’t phase the World Champs much less register on the litmus paper the same way it would for the Rams this early in the campaign. And, if the goal is to be in the lead 10% of the way through, you can’t go wrong betting on the anxious-to-succeed sprinter in Week 3.

Green Bay (+3) at San Francisco 

It only took 7 quarters, but finally the Packers as we know them have showed up for the 2021 season. And I'm starting to think Aaron Rodgers is either hopped up on pain killers, or the effects of dating Shailene Woodley are finally taking effect. 

Rodgers looks like the guy who's always asking to borrow ten bucks and saying, "I'll get you back next week, man.”

Meanwhile, in San Fran, Jimmy Garoppolo continues his Brian Griese-like career by completing 25 passes for 180 yards every week while looking like he has a Maximo Magazine photo shoot afterward.

I’ll put some coin on Aaron and the Packers here as underdogs. Get you back next week.

Philadelphia (+3.5) at Dallas

Ok, I’m just gonna say it: Assessing NFC East matchups is about as thrilling for me as picking between Sandia Sand, Tuscan Beige, or Sun Kissed Taupe for which color to paint the walls in my rec room.  The division sucks eggs. The teams suck eggs. And already by Week 3 there’s little doubt in my mind we’re all just watching to see which 7-9-1 or 8-9 team conquers the East and wins the right to get pummeled in the Wild Card Round by Green Bay or Seattle.

That being said, every time two of them get together (it was NYG & Washington last week), the game is always closely contested. Not exciting. Just closely contested.

On the merits of that thought process alone, I’ll assume this game will come right down to the wire and be settled by less than 4 points either way. Gimme the Eagles. They go better with the trim.

Until next week, my friends… stay healthy. 

Last Week Straight Up Winners:  13-3

Current Season Total Straight Up Winners: 23-9

Last Week Against the Spread: 9-7

Current Season Total Against the Spread:  18-13-1