Hallo, Deutschland!: The Bird’s Week 10 NFL Picks

Guten abend! With the NFL in Berlin this week, I figured I’d honor my old German teacher, Frau Dovas; and my college German professor, Herr Kern, with some football forecasting that resembles the work ethic and efficiency of the German people.

Which is really just fancy speak for: this week’s picks were made under the influence of Kölsch beer instead of my traditional Miller Lites and whisky. 

Dieter from SNL’s Sprockets may have also creeped into my reasonings. Lets’s dance!

My secret to handicapping efficiency.

The Bird, aka der vogel, was 8-5 against the spread and 9-4 straight up last week. Given a couple of huge upsets that NO ONE saw coming, it wasn't a bad showing at all. Still, there’s room for improvement in Week 10. Es ist zeit!

Bird’s Eye View 

Atlanta (-2.5) at Carolina

Atlanta is one helluva difficult team to figure out. Just when you think they’re decent, they suck. And just when they start to suck, they’re decent.

Carolina is basically the same, except replace “decent” with “sucks even more.”

Falcons 24  Panthers 14

Seattle (+2.5) at Tampa

If you woulda told me at any moment in time prior to last Sunday that one of these quarterbacks threw the ball 58 times and had a QB Rating of 79 in Week 9, while the other was an efficient 26-for-33 with a QBR of 110; and then told me Tom Brady was the first and Geno Smith was the latter…and then advised that both stat lines basically tell the story of this entire season…

I woulda called you a stooge.

Das ist nicht Tom Brady! Das ist eine booby!

Sadly, I think I’ve run my course of not taking Seattle seriously. That ends today, as the Seahawks have the better team, coach, and quarterback right now.

Also, it turns out Munich is fanatic about something other than Oktoberfest and women with hairy armpits. Yep. Bavaria’s capital is a big Seahawks town. Who knew? But they say this will feel like a home game for the birds.

Seahawks 23  Buccaneers 20

Denver at Tennessee (-2.5)

As I watched last Sunday’s Tennessee-KC game and saw the Titans hanging with the Chiefs despite their third string quarterback who looked as if he graduated from the Tim Tebow School of Throwing Mechanics, I couldn’t help but think how Denver would be getting destroyed in that same game even with a future Hall of Famer at the controls. 

Denver’s not on the same level as Tennessee. Unless—Unless— the Titans do something completely stupid like, oh I don’t know, stop handing Derek Henry the football?

We won’t be so lucky.

Titans 20  Broncos 15

Cleveland at Miami (-3.5)

Tua, Tyreek, and the Miami Dolphins are humming right now.

Cleveland hasn’t really hummed since the days of Bernie Kosar. And even that didn’t really turn out too well.

Dolphins 26  Browns 20

New Orleans (-1) at Pittsburgh

This is one of a few games this weekend that pit two teams who are either incapable or dysfunctional, or just generally crappy, against each other in a matchup with absolutely no impact on the conference playoff pictures unless you are a lucky resident of the NFC South.

Since the Saints are of the latter, and 6-11 just might win you a division, I’ll take them to win what is close to being a pk bet.

Also, I found the perfect headgear for watching this type of game:

Saints and Steelers fans, rest easy!
The Ostrich Head Pillow is the perfect
aid for watching this clash of non-titans.

Saints 19  Steelers 17

Detroit at Chicago (-3)

Bears 24  Lions 21

Minnesota at Buffalo (-3.5)

Now that the election deniers, democracy “savers,” senate seaters, and gubernatorials have all had their orgy of fun at our expense, Bills-Vikings is now the single biggest battle that America has its eye on this second week in November. 

Thank God.

It remains to be seen if Josh Allen’s elbow is ok, and if he ends up sidelined I am likely to edit this pick on Sunday, but for now, I’ll take the Bills minus the generous 3.5 points (which has been bought down from 6.5 with the aforementioned question mark surrounding Allen’s bum wing). Buyer beware. 

Bills 27  Vikings 21

Jacksonville at Kansas City (-9.5)

Jacksonville just won for the first time in 7 weeks, but it came against the 1976 Bucs— I mean the Las Vegas Raiders— so we can’t put much stock into it.

Kansas City should handle their business at home.

Chiefs 31  Jaguars 17

Indianapolis at Las Vegas (-4.5)

This is a matchup between the team who just fired their coach and the team who still needs to fire their coach.

Normally I’d take the points here, citing my theories that teams with interim coaches usually play inspired ball; and the Raiders can’t be trusted to beat the dust out of a floor rug right now. 

But gawd this Colts’ offense is putrid. Putrid I tells ya.

Raiders 24  Colts 14

Arizona at LA Rams (-1.5)

All I know is we’ve reached the point in the season where Kyler Murray’s Napoleon Complex is kicking in.

I wonder if Murray knows that Hopkins is better than him?

The Cardinals QB seems to always be yelling at someone, be it opposing fans, his head coach, or his star wide receiver. I can’t imagine being married to this chick.

The Rams are reeling just as bad, but at least they seem cohesive. I’ll take the home team to win by more than the 1+ spread.

Rams 31  Cardinals 28

LA Chargers at San Francisco (-7)

If the Bolts have to navigate against this defense without Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, it is not going to go as well as it did last week vs. Atlanta.

San Fran has had two weeks to rest, prepare, and further indoctrinate Christian McCaffrey into the game plan.

It seems like a lot to give for what feels like a shootout type of game, but I’ll lean on the Niners to win by more than a touch.

49’ers 33   Chargers 24

Washington (+11) at Philadelphia

Okay, so the Eagles are 8-0. But they cost me a “Bet the Nest” pick last week and their baseball brethren also screwed me on some World Series stuff. 

So, to those fans who boo Santa Claus, cancer-stricken children, and Cowboys players laying paralyzed at midfield… allow me to point out:

• Philly's 8 wins are against: 1) the 2-6 Lions, 2) Kirk Cousins in prime time, 3) Carson Wentz, 4) Jacksonville, 5) Arizona without Deandre Hopkins, 6) Dallas without Dak, 7) the armpit of Pennsylvania Steelers, and 8) the 1-win Houston Texans.

So there. You guys actually kinda suck. I'll take Washington to cover here.

Eagles 30  Commanders 20

Bet the Nest

Houston at New York Giants (-5.5)

The G-Men return home after a humbling defeat in Seattle; Houston stays on the road after sucking butt in Philly. As a general rule in life, being humbled is always better than sucking butt.

Pick New York and sleep well.

Giants 23  Texans 9

Fox in the Hen House

Dallas (-5) at Green Bay 

Detroit just found out how rewarding it is to play against nature's fastest wilting flower: the Green Bay Packers. 

I’m not sure at what point the cheeseheads plug in Jordan Love and prep for their future, but it feels like the time is near.

Having said all that, this game feels like a total trap. I’m nervous laying the 5 points, but the eye test tells me Dallas should roll here. Clearly, though…

Cowboys 27  Packers 20

And just like that, now iz zee time on zer bloggin’ ven vee dance! 

Dieter Sprocket doing the Griddy.

You’ve been Bird Dropped! Auf wiedersehen!

Season Total Straight Up Winners: 84-51-1

Season Total Against the Spread:  78-58

Lock of the Week Picks: 5-4

Trap Game of the Week:  3-6

The Short, Short Version: The Bird's Week 10 NFL Picks

Brevity beckons this week as The Bird is frolicking in the high country of the Rocky Mountains and only has time for some half-assed picks and some half-assed humor. Don't worry though, together they still make me one full ass.

Plus, at the 11th hour I accidentally deleted my entire write up for this week and had to start all over. So without further adieu, I present to you this week's Bird Droppings:

 

The Bird sanctimoniously delivers the short, short version.

Click Here: The Short, Short Version!

Week 10 is here and the picks are brief and to the point. Like Kansas City's defense, it should be pretty easy to rip through.

(Note: Cincinnati, Chicago and the Giants are all on official byes; Houston is taking their 10th consecutive week off as well.)

Here we go!

Baltimore (-7.5) at Miami

Apparently, so long as they aren't playing the Bengals, Baltimore can win games in a variety of ways and in the face of a multitude of adversities. Blowouts, comebacks, squeakers, 66 yard game winners, etc.

I'll take the team who has shown they can adjust and persevere to just about any tempo against the one who basically just sucks every week.

Ravens 30  Dolphins 20

Buffalo (-11) at New York Jets

It's almost impossible for me to imagine the Bills losing back-to-back games against such gutter dwellers as the Jaguars and Jets.

Bills 38  Jets 16

 

Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-10)

It's equally as impossible for me to imagine the Colts not taking advantage of back-to-back games against such gutter dwellers as the Jaguars and Jets.

Colts 28  Jaguars 17

 

Tampa Bay (-9) at Washington

I am not privy to the study habits of Ron Rivera vs. those of Bruce Arians, but in picking which coach will have done his homework enough to have his team prepared for an opponent after having two weeks in which to do so, I'm taking the dude who gets to send Tom Brady to take the test for him. Every time.

Buccaneers 31  Washington 20 

New Orleans at Tennessee (-2.5)

Just when we all thought the Derek Henry injury would pauperize the Titans' offense entirely, they march into L.A. like kings and beat the crap out of the Rams.

Meanwhile New Orleans still has major quarterbacking issues, and someone must've told Alvin Kamara he is on my fantasy team because he has stopped doing anything.  All of the above makes this an easy pick for me.

Titans 27  Saints 20

Atlanta at Dallas (-8)

I'll go on a hunch that Dallas gets completely re-calibrated on offense this week, and their defense will play with some heightened passion in the wake of last week's embarrassing loss to the Broncos.

Cowboys 37  Falcons 20

 

Detroit at Pittsburgh (-8)

The last time we saw the Lions they were getting hammered 44-6 by Philadelphia on Halloween.

Thanks to the bye Detroit has had an extra 7 days to prepare for this week's ass whooping, so I expect they will do it even better this Sunday.

Steelers 31  Lions 11

 

Cleveland (+2.5) at New England

You gotta love Baker Mayfield. Dude just got dissed by Odell Beckham Jr., Odell Beckham Sr., and LeBron James, is playing essentially with one arm, and yet continues to inspire a team who just two weeks ago looked to be reverting back into their factory of sadness days. Plus he's doing it all while living in Cleveland and never quite sure when he might have Chubb.

Click to See: Baker, Baker, Hyped Up Maker

The Progressive commercial guy is growing on me. And I hate New England.

Browns 23  Patriots 22

 

Carolina at Arizona (-10.5)

Whether or not the Cards get Kyler Murray back this Sunday may not matter when the other team is trotting out Sam Darnold. It really doesn't matter when the other team is trotting out P.J. Walker.

Cardinals 27  Panthers 10

 

Minnesota at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5)   

The Bolts at home are the better of these two slightly-to-moderately better than average teams.

 

Chargers 30  Vikings 24

 

Philadelphia (+3) at Denver   

My therapist is working on my cynicism, so I will skeptically pick Denver to win and Philly to cover. Ahh, I feel so much better now.

Broncos 23  Eagles 21

 

Seattle at Green Bay (-3)   

Aaron Rodgers feels crucified as the victim of another Covid-related witch hunt AND gets to follow up Jordan Love's abysmal performance with a big dose of "I told you so" for Green Bay management? 

Look out, Seattle. Number 12 is about to go into "eff all of you" mode.

Packers 45  Seahawks 20

 

Kansas City at Las Vegas (+2.5)    

In Kansas City I see a team that is discombobulated at best. Had Aaron Rodgers played last week they might have lost 35-13 instead of that 13-7 win they eeked out.

And then there’s the Raiders...

Between the firing of their head coach, the tragedy of Henry Ruggs, and now the separation with a player who essentially threatened to murder a fan via a vulgar and disturbing Tik Tok video, I'm not sure I could trust them to win a jury trial much less a football game.

Chiefs 31  Raiders 30

Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at San Francisco    

The Rams are coming off an embarrassing loss at home to Tennessee and are desperate to keep pace with the Packers and Cardinals in the NFC. The Niners couldn't beat Colt McCoy last week.

San Fran remains winless at home and I predict things are about to get ugly in the Bay Area after this one.

Rams 31  49'ers 17

 

I'll be back to city living and wildly overthinking the picks next week, friends. Until then, good luck with your pools and bets!

 

 

Last Week Straight Up Winners: 9-5

Current Season Total Straight Up Winners: 91-45

Last Week Against the Spread: 6-8

Current Season Total Against the Spread:  72-62-2