Rough Skiing: The Bird’s Week 13 NFL Picks

Well, what can I say. One month ago I was 13 games above .500 picking against the spread and pushing a 72% clip on accuracy predicting the winners straight up. Life was good, the Droppings were money, and anyone who visited my blog could actually take my advice instead of just read it. 

Then that frenzied November of upsets, setbacks, stunners, and sheer craziness happened. It not only sabotaged the Bird Droppings but I’d be lying if I said it hasn’t gotten into my head.

I was leading the pack in four separate pools and now, four NFL weeks later, I am falling like a blind roofer in all of them.

Visual of The Bird’s November. It started out promising,
then hit a sketchy patch, then it seemed I had the skis
under me again on Thanksgiving…
only to be yanked something fierce last Sunday.

Yep. I'm bobbing in the Evinrude wake of November with my trunks down around my ankles and some of the inside netting still stuck in my ass as I hack a gallon of lake water out my nose. Not fun. My skis are floating around here somewhere and as soon as I get them back it’s time to get serious.

All teams are set to make their stretch run and playoff push, and I am no different.

On to Week 13...  Hit it!

 

Dallas (-4.5) at New Orleans

Generally speaking, at this time of year I tend to lean towards teams who are playing for their playoff lives versus teams who have only mustered five wins by the time I've started my Christmas shopping.

Then again, 'tis the season for Dallas to crap the bed and skid into their annual 8-win finish.

I'll take the Cowboys here but I'll say it again: 'tis the bed crapping season in Big D.

Cowboys 27  Saints 17

Tampa Bay (-10.5) at Atlanta

Bucs. 

Buccaneers 30  Falcons 16

Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati (-2.5)

Cincinnati feels like a team starting to find their stride, even if they are only on a 2 game winning streak. When they win they go all out in doing so. And when they lose they do the same, whether it’s giving up 42 points to the Browns or pissing themselves embarrassingly against the Jets.

Since the Chargers are not quite in Jets territory, and since I think Cincinnati wins this game anyhow, I will definitely bet them to cover the -2.5 points.

Bengals 37  Chargers 31

Arizona (-7.5) at Chicago

Chicago didn’t fire their coach last week despite numerous reports that Black Friday was supposed to have been D-Day for Matt Nagy. This bodes well for only two kinds of people: the Nagy Family and the Arizona Cardinals.

Kyler Murray is back after a month off, and Arizona has won their last six games on the road.  Make it seven.

Cardinals 27  Bears 17

 

Philadelphia (-6.5) at New York Jets

Up until last week’s disappointing loss to New York’s other team, Philadelphia has been a great, crappy team of late. The Jets, after beating Houston, have proven themselves to be a mediocre, crappy team who can beat crappy, crappy teams but nothing more.

Greatness always beats crappy, even when discussing losing teams.

Even if Jalen Hurts can’t go, I have to take the team in green in this one.

Eagles 25  Jets 14

 

Minnesota (-7) at Detroit 

Dalvin Cook’s absence aside, I’m just not sure how many more weeks I can continue to entertain my women’s intuition that “those poor Detroit Lions are due.”

Minnesota is in the throes of a heated playoff race, and games on the schedule against teams that are still 0-fer in December cannot and should not be taken lightly.

As badly as I want Detroit to get off the schneid before coming to Denver in Week 14, I have to bet smartly and go Purple here.

Vikings 27  Lions 17

 

Indianapolis (-8.5) at Houston

I’m no medical expert, but when the hottest team in the league as of last Saturday loses a heartbreaker at home to the Buccaneers last Sunday… a dose of Houston Texans is exactly what the doctor ordered. 

Indy gets well this day.

Colts 34  Texans 23

New York Giants at Miami (-3.5)

I'll take the home team for no good reason other than Miami is full of young kids still playing hard and believing in themselves, while New York is rife with indifference and players who injure themselves warming up. 

The Fins get win number 5 in a row while the G-Men are due for a loss after going L-W-L-W-L-W each of the past 6 weeks.

Dolphins 23  Giants 17

 

Jacksonville at Los Angeles Rams (-12.5)

One team has unexpectedly lost three in a row and now has everything to play for in trying to stay within a game of division leading Arizona and a game ahead of fast-charging San Francisco. They also have the ability to hang points on shitty teams at home. 

The other team is indeed very shitty and on their way to SoFi Stadium as we speak.

The Jacksonville Jaguars heading out west.

Rams 40  Jaguars 17

 

Washington (+3) at Las Vegas

Eight days ago I would have jumped on the born again and suddenly surging Football Team here, going against a slumping 3 loss-streaking team with all the same worries as a monkey on a rock.

Then Vegas went into Dallas and laid the wood to the Cowboys in an impressive showing that I viewed mostly while fading in and out of a tryptophan coma. So now I'm not so sure.

Good thing I just remembered I hate the Raiders. Washington is my pick to cover. Even if they don’t win the game they will keep it close. But I really hope they win. 

Raiders 26  Washington 24

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (+4.5)

In a rare twist in Steelers lore, the Steel Curtain has allowed 41 points in each of their last two games and is now averaging 34 points allowed in five losses and a tie to the winless Lions. Mean Joe Green and Jack Lambert would be rolling over in their graves if they were dead. 

Mean Joe and Jack discuss this year’s
incarnation of the Steelers’ D.

Games between these two almost always go under the total, so expect either a slug fest or a low scoring lopsided affair. So long as Pittsburgh doesn’t allow another 40-plusser I think they cover the 4.5 in a slugfest at home. They might even win.

Steelers 19  Ravens 16

 

San Francisco (-2.5) at Seattle

Seattle is 1-6 over their last 7 games and unless your name is James or Rita Carroll, this has to make you smile. It also appears Russell Wilson’s finger still isn’t exactly working correctly. 

Russell Wilson pointing to all three of
his wide receivers at the same time. 

San Fran got some swagger back last week and I think their collective fire has been re-lit as the stretch run begins and the gold diggers find themselves one game behind the Rams and right in the thick of the NFC wildcard race.

While the Deebo Samuel injury is concerning, San Francisco by a field goal still feels right here.

49’ers 23  Seahawks 20

 

Denver at Kansas City (-9.5)

Since I feel guilty praying for a Broncos win when the world has so many other dire situations like Covid, Cultural Equity, and Britney Spears’ freedom to pray for, I'll just play my reverse jinx card and bet Kansas City wins big here.

Chiefs 34  Broncos 17

 

New England at Buffalo (-3)

Last year Buffalo ran away with the AFC East. Before that, New England ran the division like the Ming Dynasty ran 1400-1700 a.d. China. 

Let’s just say it’s been a long damn time since the AFC East has had a divisional game this meaningful this late in the year.

The Bird watching tv with his parents and sister the last time
the AFC East had two teams this good, this late in the season.

This is the first of two Buffalo-New England battles to come this month, and as hard as it is to go against the Patriots right now, I think I like me some Bills Mafia here.

Monday Night Football on the shores of Lake Erie guarantees the Buffalo crowd an extra 8 hours of pre-gaming, and they should be drunker than Joe Namath at Suzy Kolber’s Christmas party by the time those asshats from Beantown take the field. I, for one, deem this significant.

Going with Buffalo. 

Bills 37  Patriots 30

 

Oops… I Did It Again. You’ve been Bird Dropped.

Last Week Straight Up Winners: 6-9

Current Season Total Straight Up Winners: 109-71

Last Week Against the Spread: 4-11

Current Season Total Against the Spread:  89-89-2

What Would Costanza Do: The Bird's Week 11 NFL Picks

Okay, this season is officially nuttier than squirrel turds.

The last three NFL weekends have been replete with absurd happenings, unforeseen choke jobs, and inspired upsets by teams who otherwise get clobbered by 30 points all the time.

November alone has brought us the Jaguars absolutely stuffing the Bills, the hapless Jets blasting conference-leading Cincinnati, the Broncos bitch-slapping Dallas, and that team formerly named after indigenous peoples with darker hued epidermises than Anglo Saxons making Tom Brady look like Vinny Testaverde in Washington's complete smack down of the Bucs. 

The hell is going on out there??

Shit is so crazy right now, that I swear I saw Cam Newton last Sunday. Cam Newton is back?? Oh, and the Lions didn’t lose!

Do you hear me, people? THE LIONS DIDN’T LOSE!! 

This madness is impossible to pick lately, and all of us are suffering in our pick’em pools and betting apps as a result. Even the Bird Droppings are in the red each of the past two weekends —a first for this season— and I can’t stand for that.

So, without further adieu, again it is time.... 

"If every instinct you have is wrong, then the opposite would have to be right."

-- Jerry, to George, in "The Opposite"

Time for The Bird to dial up an old slump-busting trick of Seinfeldian proportions. Ladies and gentlemen, I recount for you an episode called, "The Opposite.”

In this classic, a simple pick up line in the coffee shop proves Jerry's theory that every instinct George has is wrong. In concession, George spends the remainder of the episode picking the opposite of his intuition in every decision he makes. The result? He lands an attractive girlfriend, a dream job with the New York Yankees, and an apartment that allows him to finally move out of his parents' house.

 

"Bald men with no jobs and no money who live with their parents don't approach strange women."

-- George, in "The Opposite"

 

I’ve seen it work on TV, and long time readers of the Droppings may or may not remember that I have played this angle before. I know it will work for predicting this week’s winners (against the spread at least. Baby steps), and by next week's post we'll be back to our regular soothsaying and Jimmy the Greek-like prognosticating.

But for now, nothing can be trusted to common sense and logic. Week 11 is here and I am asking myself, WWCD… "What would Costanza do?"

 

New England at Atlanta (+7)

In a development that has everyone outside of Beantown throwing up in their mouths and shuddering with cold sweats and ghastly visions of the past twenty years, the Patriots are actually starting to look exactly like the Patriots again.

The Falcons just gave up something like a hundred points in one half and now have 5 losses by an average of 20 points each time they suck. Which, when they do, they suck gloriously. 

Seems like a straight forward pick to me, but in the Costanzian spirit of going against all better judgement…

WWCD: I’m betting the Falcons this day. It’s not a lie if you believe it, Jerry!

Falcons 27  Patriots 24

Baltimore at Chicago (+5)

Every fiber of my being says that Baltimore will recover from last Thursday's pathetic performance against the Dolphins, especially when I consider this week they are playing Chicago... who is just like the Miami of the NFC. Now don't get me wrong, that's a good thing three out of every ten weeks. But as this week goes, the Ravens seem like the logical pick as the better team.

WWCD: Since I'm going the other way of logical picks this week, I'll take the team that I just acknowledged has a good week three tenths of the time, plus the points.

Ravens 24  Chicago 21

 

Detroit (+11) at Cleveland

If not for the fact that living in Detroit has given Lions fans an impossibly high tolerance for depressing sights and events, the parking lots around Ford Field would be rife with self-immolation by now. And lucky for all of them, the Lions are again on the road this Sunday as they continue chasing that evasive first win.

The Browns meanwhile, despite being banged up and reeling, return home and should be fueled by pride and desperation after that ass beating they took in New England. They are clearly the better team even in their current state.

Which is to say...

WWCD: Only George Costanza in full rebellion against his better judgement would pick the 0-8-1 Lions to cover a road spread less than two touchdowns. Do not try this at home.

Browns 23  Lions 20

 

San Francisco at Jacksonville (+6)

The Niners just pummeled one of the top 3 teams in the league and appear to be finding some rhythm with two wins in their last three games. The Jaguars are 3-19 in their last 22 games.

WWCD: It's been since roughly Week 3 of the 2016 season, but today I will say again, "Take Jacksonville plus the points."

"A job with the New York Yankees! This has been the dream of my life ever since I was a child, and its all happening because I am completely ignoring every urge towards common sense and good judgement I've ever had. This is no longer just some crazy notion, Elaine, Jerry. This is my religion."  -- George, in "The Opposite"

49'ers 20  Jaguars 17

 

Washington (+3.5) at Carolina

I totally would have taken Carolina last week had I known Cam Newton would be inserted under center so immediately like that.

I also would have taken Washington had I known Taylor Heinicke was going to play like Tom Brady and Tom Brady was going to play like Taylor Heinicke. Did you read the part above about squirrel turds and absurd happenings in the NFL? 

This seems to be a slam dunk for the suddenly recharged Panthers, at home, and against a team I guarantee is due for the all-too-predictable letdown after blowing their wad in a signature win last Sunday against the world champs. Cam Newton is also likely frothing at the mouth with anticipation of going against his former coach, Ron Rivera.

Welp…

WWCD: Gimme the Washington Football Team babee!

Washington 23  Panthers 21 

 

Green Bay at Minnesota (+2.5)

This one is tricky even on the opposite scale. Normally we would all agree that Green Bay should win by at least a field goal, we'd all laugh at some fat guy with a cheese slice on his head, admire an even fatter woman with purple horns and a shield, and we would merrily Costanza our way into a Vikings-plus-the-points bet.

The absence of Aaron Jones, however, for a match up on the road against a team showing all season a strong knack for keeping games close, makes Minnesota as home dawgs a very enticing pick.

I still think Green Bay is the better team, and now with a defense that in the past three weeks has held Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes, and Kyler Murray to 1 combined TD and 4 INT, I'd probably bet the Pack in a heartbeat if asked. Which means...

WWCD: Minnesota is the bet.

Packers 31  Vikings 30

 

Indianapolis (+7) at Buffalo

Indianapolis is hot (5-2, after an 0-3 start), but their five wins have come against two rookie quarterbacks, Davis Mills, Jacoby Brissett, and Jimmy Garoppolo. Pretty damning evidence.

There's no way the Colts go on the road and hang within a touchdown of Josh Allen and the Bills. Right..?

WWCD: Buffalo may still win the game, but Indy keeps it close.

Bills 30  Colts 24

 

New Orleans (+2) at Philadelphia

"Who are you, George Costanza?"

 

--Victoria and George, in an intimate moment, in "The Opposite"

Philadelphia's gotta be licking their chops right now. Coming home after two big wins on the road and facing a Saints team without Alvin Kamara and without any semblance of a professional quarterback.

WWCD: Going against all of the warm fuzzies Philly has going for them and taking the team with the shittier QB, what else?

Saints 24  Eagles 21

 

Miami at New York Jets (+3.5)

The Jets feel like they are getting better, but I'm only basing that on the fact that lately they have only 'kind of' sucked. The thought here is that Miami, coming off a huge win and with an extra 3 days to prepare for a Jets team being quarterbacked by Joe Flacco, is the smart pick. So...

WWCD: Did I just say, "Joe Flacco?" Well then, The Jets it is!

Jets 24  Dolphins 22

 

Houston (+11) at Tennessee

Can anyone who hasn't been drinking Texas moonshine honestly tell me that the Texans are going to march into Music City and hang within four field goals of the best team in the AFC?

WWCD: Take the points and pass the moonshine.

Titans 26  Houston 17

 

Cincinnati at Las Vegas (+1.5)

Facts:

• A really good and really pissed off Bengals team returning from a two week break in which they had ample time to stew over back-to-back losses to the Jets and Browns.
• A Vegas team that has quietly been regressing over the past several weeks and has a recent history of starting strong and fading fast. 

Easy, right?

WWCD: Give me the Raiders. Reeling internally and facing a young and talented team coming off the bye and anxious to get back on the winning track. Costanza logic says so.

Raiders 28  Bengals 27

 

Dallas (+2.5) at Kansas City

Two teams who definitely got their swagger back last weekend square off in what should be the game of the week. Kansas City at home is almost always my pic, so in honor of the strategy this week…

WWCD: Dallas plus the points. I’m tempted to go “full George” here and pick an outright upset. Yeah, what the hell:

Cowboys 37  Chiefs 34

 

Arizona (-2.5) at Seattle

Three painstakingly long weeks ago Arizona looked to be in firm control of the NFC and remained as the league's only undefeated team. And with a bye on the horizon, thoughts now are that the Cards may shelve Kyler Murray for one more week to allow for additional time to heal that gimpy ankle. Not only does this reflect Arizona’s awareness of needing to protect their long term future as opposed to panicking for a short-sighted win now, but it also completely F#@!?*'s my fantasy team.

Seattle has Russell Wilson back and after knocking the rust off last week in the snow in Green Bay, the Seabirds' QB should be ready to return to form at home this week.

Seattle here, yeah?

WWCD: Take the team that is without their quarterback and best wide receiver, has lost two of three games after starting the season 7-0, and is playing a traditionally difficult divisional foe who is desperate to save their season of course! 

Cardinals 27  Seahawks 24

 

Pittsburgh at Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5)

The Chargers have dropped three of their past four. Last weekend they lost to a team that had 5 starters out on the Covid list and who's star RB had a former girlfriend file a civil suit against him just before the plane departed St. Paul. Yikes. After a crazy hot start to the season, it's almost as if Norv Turner has taken over the coaching again for L.A.

Pittsburgh meanwhile is unbeaten in their last five games, which would be pretty cool except for one of those "non-losses" was last week's tie to a team who was otherwise on their way to 0-17.

This one is hard to figure out. Which way is going the opposite of my gut?

WWCD: Since Pittsburgh is the hotter of these two teams and hasn't lost since October 3rd, they are the obvious pick as 41/2 point under dogs. Los Angeles, it is then!

Chargers 27  Steelers 22

 

New York Giants (+11.5) at Tampa Bay

I can't even wrap my brain around this pick. Taking the worst team in the NFC not named the Lions, on the road against an angry Tom Brady, and not getting at least 37 points from the odds makers? Deplorable.

WWCD: For the first time all season I think I will say, "Take the Giants."

Bucs 27  Giants 17

 

You've been Bird Dropped. Giddy up!

Last Week Straight Up Winners: 6-8

Current Season Total Straight Up Winners: 97-53

Last Week Against the Spread: 5-9

Current Season Total Against the Spread:  77-71-2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Short, Short Version: The Bird's Week 10 NFL Picks

Brevity beckons this week as The Bird is frolicking in the high country of the Rocky Mountains and only has time for some half-assed picks and some half-assed humor. Don't worry though, together they still make me one full ass.

Plus, at the 11th hour I accidentally deleted my entire write up for this week and had to start all over. So without further adieu, I present to you this week's Bird Droppings:

 

The Bird sanctimoniously delivers the short, short version.

Click Here: The Short, Short Version!

Week 10 is here and the picks are brief and to the point. Like Kansas City's defense, it should be pretty easy to rip through.

(Note: Cincinnati, Chicago and the Giants are all on official byes; Houston is taking their 10th consecutive week off as well.)

Here we go!

Baltimore (-7.5) at Miami

Apparently, so long as they aren't playing the Bengals, Baltimore can win games in a variety of ways and in the face of a multitude of adversities. Blowouts, comebacks, squeakers, 66 yard game winners, etc.

I'll take the team who has shown they can adjust and persevere to just about any tempo against the one who basically just sucks every week.

Ravens 30  Dolphins 20

Buffalo (-11) at New York Jets

It's almost impossible for me to imagine the Bills losing back-to-back games against such gutter dwellers as the Jaguars and Jets.

Bills 38  Jets 16

 

Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-10)

It's equally as impossible for me to imagine the Colts not taking advantage of back-to-back games against such gutter dwellers as the Jaguars and Jets.

Colts 28  Jaguars 17

 

Tampa Bay (-9) at Washington

I am not privy to the study habits of Ron Rivera vs. those of Bruce Arians, but in picking which coach will have done his homework enough to have his team prepared for an opponent after having two weeks in which to do so, I'm taking the dude who gets to send Tom Brady to take the test for him. Every time.

Buccaneers 31  Washington 20 

New Orleans at Tennessee (-2.5)

Just when we all thought the Derek Henry injury would pauperize the Titans' offense entirely, they march into L.A. like kings and beat the crap out of the Rams.

Meanwhile New Orleans still has major quarterbacking issues, and someone must've told Alvin Kamara he is on my fantasy team because he has stopped doing anything.  All of the above makes this an easy pick for me.

Titans 27  Saints 20

Atlanta at Dallas (-8)

I'll go on a hunch that Dallas gets completely re-calibrated on offense this week, and their defense will play with some heightened passion in the wake of last week's embarrassing loss to the Broncos.

Cowboys 37  Falcons 20

 

Detroit at Pittsburgh (-8)

The last time we saw the Lions they were getting hammered 44-6 by Philadelphia on Halloween.

Thanks to the bye Detroit has had an extra 7 days to prepare for this week's ass whooping, so I expect they will do it even better this Sunday.

Steelers 31  Lions 11

 

Cleveland (+2.5) at New England

You gotta love Baker Mayfield. Dude just got dissed by Odell Beckham Jr., Odell Beckham Sr., and LeBron James, is playing essentially with one arm, and yet continues to inspire a team who just two weeks ago looked to be reverting back into their factory of sadness days. Plus he's doing it all while living in Cleveland and never quite sure when he might have Chubb.

Click to See: Baker, Baker, Hyped Up Maker

The Progressive commercial guy is growing on me. And I hate New England.

Browns 23  Patriots 22

 

Carolina at Arizona (-10.5)

Whether or not the Cards get Kyler Murray back this Sunday may not matter when the other team is trotting out Sam Darnold. It really doesn't matter when the other team is trotting out P.J. Walker.

Cardinals 27  Panthers 10

 

Minnesota at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5)   

The Bolts at home are the better of these two slightly-to-moderately better than average teams.

 

Chargers 30  Vikings 24

 

Philadelphia (+3) at Denver   

My therapist is working on my cynicism, so I will skeptically pick Denver to win and Philly to cover. Ahh, I feel so much better now.

Broncos 23  Eagles 21

 

Seattle at Green Bay (-3)   

Aaron Rodgers feels crucified as the victim of another Covid-related witch hunt AND gets to follow up Jordan Love's abysmal performance with a big dose of "I told you so" for Green Bay management? 

Look out, Seattle. Number 12 is about to go into "eff all of you" mode.

Packers 45  Seahawks 20

 

Kansas City at Las Vegas (+2.5)    

In Kansas City I see a team that is discombobulated at best. Had Aaron Rodgers played last week they might have lost 35-13 instead of that 13-7 win they eeked out.

And then there’s the Raiders...

Between the firing of their head coach, the tragedy of Henry Ruggs, and now the separation with a player who essentially threatened to murder a fan via a vulgar and disturbing Tik Tok video, I'm not sure I could trust them to win a jury trial much less a football game.

Chiefs 31  Raiders 30

Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at San Francisco    

The Rams are coming off an embarrassing loss at home to Tennessee and are desperate to keep pace with the Packers and Cardinals in the NFC. The Niners couldn't beat Colt McCoy last week.

San Fran remains winless at home and I predict things are about to get ugly in the Bay Area after this one.

Rams 31  49'ers 17

 

I'll be back to city living and wildly overthinking the picks next week, friends. Until then, good luck with your pools and bets!

 

 

Last Week Straight Up Winners: 9-5

Current Season Total Straight Up Winners: 91-45

Last Week Against the Spread: 6-8

Current Season Total Against the Spread:  72-62-2

 

Stink Bomb Heard 'Round the World: The Bird’s Week 5 NFL Picks

Hear, ye! Hear, ye! 

It’s that time of year in every season where we send a couple of NFL teams across the pond to prove to our friends in England that our version of football is not only better than theirs, but contains less whining and flopping.

(It should be noted that we are superior to the Brits in whining and flopping too, and we’ll gladly send some NBA over if they’d like to challenge us on that.)

Either way, here in America we reap the benefits this Sunday of Live football with our breakfast and a refreshing new reason to skip church. This is quite literally the most important role the Jets and Falcons will play for any of us this year, so let’s thank them both.

Pinky fingers out, chums, Week 5 is here. Cheerio!

Los Angeles Rams at Seattle (+2)

This pick feels more like hunch and assumption than my usual surefire tactics of research and humor, but there’s merit in my reasoning so bear with me:

The Rams have three easy wins on their schedule after tonight so nothing worse than 6-2 is on the horizon even if they lose. Seattle remains a bit more desperate for a win in my opinion. Plus, more importantly, they are wearing those glowing green jerseys that they have never lost in.

Seattle: when they glow, they're 7-0.

 

Seattle as a home underdog has been a popular play going all the way back to the days of Dave Krieg. Pair that with looking like Kermit the Frog just swam in the Chernobyl Iron Man and I’ll take the Seabirds to cover the points, if not win outright.

Seahawks 31 Rams 30

Atlanta  at* New York Jets (+3)  *in England

The NFL continues to push its brand overseas by sending our worst teams every year to play on dank, rainy soccer pitches in front of scarf-waving hooligans with poor dental hygiene.

These poor mates think they’re having a bit of the American Football with their tea and crumpets, but if anyone ever explained to them that Jets-Falcons is our version a Norwich City-Burnley nill-nill draw played in wheel chairs, there would surely be rioting on the cobblestones.

Oh well. No doubt our forefathers are smiling down from the heavens, knowing that 240 years later we continue to stick it to the redcoats. 

Paying homage to our founding fathers, Roger Goodell crams another stink bomb into the cannon for those oppressors from England. Get a load of the Jets, you over-taxing A-holes!

Anyone betting on a game between these two teams, no matter where it’s played, needs professional help.

Jets bloody cover I suppose. 

Falcons 23  Jets 21

New Orleans (-2.5) at Washington

One thing we know for sure this season: if the Saints look great one week, they are guaranteed to lay a stinker the next week. And so forth. 

Washington, very similarly, has followed every loss with a win and every win with a loss. They are the masters of the 1-game streak.

The collective ying and yang in this game all but guarantees the Saints will look like world beaters again, and Washington is long overdue for a loss coming off their win six days ago. 

Saints 23  Football Team 20

Green Bay (-3) at Cincinnati

I see no reason to not bet on Aaron Rodgers against a team that for two and a half quarters last week couldn't handle Trevor Lawrence. 

Packers 31  Bengals 21

Denver at Pittsburgh (-1)

Let’s start here: no matter how awful the Steelers have looked so far, The Bird learned yet again last week that picking and betting with the heart is never encouraged. The crappy thing concerning this week is, I can’t figure out if the voice in my gut is my heart speaking… or my brain.

I truly believe that Denver is the better team with the better defense and, yes, the better QB even (assuming Roethlisberger is inexplicably allowed to play quarterback again this week). This is my brain telling me that Denver should prevail here. 

Yet, while the Bronco defense has looked like the '85 Bears whenever a rookie quarterback or teams with pictures of dumpster fires on their helmets are involved, they proved last week to be nothing special when the opposing QB dabbles in Mahomesian magic.  Big Ben is certainly closer to dumpster fire than Mahomes or Jackson at this point in his life, but still…

I can’t trust my gut on this one. 

Steelers 24  Broncos 20

Detroit (+9.5) at Minnesota

My constant heckling of Detroit aside, I am one who doesn’t think the Lions have looked that terrible at times this season. They made a harried comeback against the Niners in Week 1, lit up Green Bay for one half in Week 2, then lost on that 66 yard doinker to Baltimore in Week 3.

All of this is explainable, if not forgivable, for a team that at least shows some heart for 3 quarters each Sunday before daggering themselves in the chest in the 4th. Oh, but then they shit the bed for all four quarters last week in Chicago and now I have no idea what to assume. 

Sigh.

I like Minnesota to rebound here after laying an egg last week against Cleveland (seven points??), but since Detroit covers the spread every other week they are due again to back door this thing.

Vikings 28 Lions 20

Tennessee (-4) at Jacksonville

Just when I thought the Titans losing to the Jets was the most embarrassing thing that happened last weekend, Urban Meyer gets busted skipping the team flight home in exchange for some grab-assing on the local college bar scene. Larry Eustachy would be so proud:

Uh oh. Hopefully Coach can convince everyone that the blonde on his lap is Trevor Lawrence.

https://www.news4jax.com/news/local/2021/10/03/video-purportedly-showing-urban-meyer-out-at-bar-goes-viral/

The fact that they still have a head coach might be Jacksonville’s only victory this week. And since all of the closed-door meetings in the Jags’ organization were for Public Relations damage control and everything but the Titans, I’m fairly confident this is going to be all Tennessee.

Titans 30  Jaguars 13

Philadelphia at Carolina (-3)

The Panthers ran into a bit of a buzz saw last week, but with three of their next four games against 1-win teams, there’s no reason to ease up on the gas with Carolina.

Panthers 28  Eagles 14

Miami (+10) at Tampa Bay

The Dolphins are in real danger of falling to 1-4 and all but ruining what started as a very hopeful season. That sort of desperation alone makes me think they might cover 10 points against a Bucs team that certainly doesn’t look like they have all cylinders firing right now.

Tampa Bay wins this one, no doubt. I’ll very reluctantly pick Miami to keep it closer than 10 though.

Buccaneers 29  Dolphins 20

New England (-8.5) at Houston

I didn’t have this rule prior to the start of the season, but never ever take a team quarterbacked by Davis Mills to cover any kind of spread. Even if they were playing against the CU Buffs this would be the rule.

Patriots 24  Texans 9

Cleveland at Los Angeles Chargers (-2)

As things go in the AFC West, the Chargers are sitting about as pretty in 2021 as Big Pharma. Consecutive huge wins against divisional foes have the Bolts in prime jockeying position in the Conference, and if not for a 56 yard FG by Dallas in Week 2 they’d be one of only two undefeated teams remaining. 

Cleveland is also 3-1 but two of their wins have come against a Houston team who just got shellacked 40-0, and Matt Nagy’s traveling quarterback circus otherwise known as the Bears. It also appears that shaky Baker Mayfield is back and cannot be counted on for anything other than Progressive commercials right now.

In summary, I see no reason to go against the Chargers this week in a home game that might actually have 51% of the crowd cheering for them.

Chargers 27  Browns 24

Chicago at Las Vegas (-5.5)

Last week Matt Nagy was forced to start Justin Fields in place of the gingered—I mean, injured—Andy Dalton. In conjunction he mercifully handed over the play-calling duties to that riverboat gambler of an offensive coordinator he has, ol’ Bill “Throw it more than 6 yards” Lazor.  

Is it any coincidence that all of a sudden the Bears looked capable if not occasionally threatening on offense? Well…

I suspect playing the Lions had a lot to do with it, so maybe not.

The Raiders get back on track.

Raiders 31. Bears 17 

San Francisco at Arizona (-5)

The Trey Lance era begins this weekend  and despite what should be a very difficult game in the desert here, the next two weeks set up for Jimmy Garappolo to be Wally Pipp'd (or Drew Bledsoe'd, for football’s sake).

That being said, San Francisco fans will have to wait a week to smile about it. If you've been reading the Bird Droppings this long (and I thank you if you have) you are fully aware of at least two things:

1. I do not like to take rookie QB's on the road (unless that road leads to the Meadowlands, as we learned a couple of weeks ago).
2. I love me some Kyler Murray and am riding the K-Train as far as it will take me.

Take Arizona minus the points here.

Cardinals 33  49'ers 17

New York Giants at Dallas (-7)

Dallas is hot. 

I guess, if we’re talking only about the last 6 days, so is New York. 

But something tells me Micah Parsons, Trevon Diggs, and this Cowboys defense is going to make short work of Danny Dimes and crew. Take the ’Boys here for sure.

Cowboys 31 Giants 20

Buffalo at Kansas City (-3)

Wow. Where to start? 

Kansas City, even when they appear to be struggling, will cause any defense to shake like a unit of French soldiers. They’ve also already lost one game at home and it’s hard to imagine this team going any worse than 7-1 in their own stadium. 

Buffalo meanwhile… 35-0, 43-21, and 40-0.  Their last three games have been complete ear-holers and that can’t bode well for a Chiefs team who’s best defense is letting the other team score so they can get the ball back to their offense.

 

As someone who holds a masters degree in AFC West football, I know far too well the advantage that comes to those in red when playing at Arrowhead. In that vein it’s hard for me to bet against the Chiefs here. At the same time, I am struggling to picture their defense giving up anything less than 35 points to a team who is making 35 points their weekly tradition.

A field goal game sounds about right. A shootout sounds about righter. But Mahomes making magic in prime time sounds about the rightest. All I know for sure is take the over. 

Chiefs 42 Bills 38

Indianapolis at Baltimore (-7)

The good news for Indianapolis is Carson Wentz didn't re-aggravate any of his sprained ankles last week.

The bad news is this is a third consecutive road game for the Colts, against a team coming home after two straight weeks out on the road, who has a Lamar Jackson who is actually starting to polish his air game to match those crazy legs of his. Oh, and it’s in prime time.

I like the Ravens a lot here.

Ravens 35 Colts 24

You’ve been Bird dropped. Tell a friend! 

Last Week Straight Up Winners:  9-7

Current Season Total Straight Up Winners: 44-20

Last Week Against the Spread: 9-7

Current Season Total Against the Spread:  36-27-1