Hear, ye! Hear, ye!
It’s that time of year in every season where we send a couple of NFL teams across the pond to prove to our friends in England that our version of football is not only better than theirs, but contains less whining and flopping.
(It should be noted that we are superior to the Brits in whining and flopping too, and we’ll gladly send some NBA over if they’d like to challenge us on that.)
Either way, here in America we reap the benefits this Sunday of Live football with our breakfast and a refreshing new reason to skip church. This is quite literally the most important role the Jets and Falcons will play for any of us this year, so let’s thank them both.
Pinky fingers out, chums, Week 5 is here. Cheerio!
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle (+2)
This pick feels more like hunch and assumption than my usual surefire tactics of research and humor, but there’s merit in my reasoning so bear with me:
The Rams have three easy wins on their schedule after tonight so nothing worse than 6-2 is on the horizon even if they lose. Seattle remains a bit more desperate for a win in my opinion. Plus, more importantly, they are wearing those glowing green jerseys that they have never lost in.
 |
| Seattle: when they glow, they're 7-0. |
Seattle as a home underdog has been a popular play going all the way back to the days of Dave Krieg. Pair that with looking like Kermit the Frog just swam in the Chernobyl Iron Man and I’ll take the Seabirds to cover the points, if not win outright.
Seahawks 31 Rams 30
Atlanta at* New York Jets (+3) *in England
The NFL continues to push its brand overseas by sending our worst teams every year to play on dank, rainy soccer pitches in front of scarf-waving hooligans with poor dental hygiene.
These poor mates think they’re having a bit of the American Football with their tea and crumpets, but if anyone ever explained to them that Jets-Falcons is our version a Norwich City-Burnley nill-nill draw played in wheel chairs, there would surely be rioting on the cobblestones.
Oh well. No doubt our forefathers are smiling down from the heavens, knowing that 240 years later we continue to stick it to the redcoats.
 |
| Paying homage to our founding fathers, Roger Goodell crams another stink bomb into the cannon for those oppressors from England. Get a load of the Jets, you over-taxing A-holes! |
Anyone betting on a game between these two teams, no matter where it’s played, needs professional help.
Jets bloody cover I suppose.
Falcons 23 Jets 21
New Orleans (-2.5) at Washington
One thing we know for sure this season: if the Saints look great one week, they are guaranteed to lay a stinker the next week. And so forth.
Washington, very similarly, has followed every loss with a win and every win with a loss. They are the masters of the 1-game streak.
The collective ying and yang in this game all but guarantees the Saints will look like world beaters again, and Washington is long overdue for a loss coming off their win six days ago.
Saints 23 Football Team 20
Green Bay (-3) at Cincinnati
I see no reason to not bet on Aaron Rodgers against a team that for two and a half quarters last week couldn't handle Trevor Lawrence.
Packers 31 Bengals 21
Denver at Pittsburgh (-1)
Let’s start here: no matter how awful the Steelers have looked so far, The Bird learned yet again last week that picking and betting with the heart is never encouraged. The crappy thing concerning this week is, I can’t figure out if the voice in my gut is my heart speaking… or my brain.
I truly believe that Denver is the better team with the better defense and, yes, the better QB even (assuming Roethlisberger is inexplicably allowed to play quarterback again this week). This is my brain telling me that Denver should prevail here.
Yet, while the Bronco defense has looked like the '85 Bears whenever a rookie quarterback or teams with pictures of dumpster fires on their helmets are involved, they proved last week to be nothing special when the opposing QB dabbles in Mahomesian magic. Big Ben is certainly closer to dumpster fire than Mahomes or Jackson at this point in his life, but still…
I can’t trust my gut on this one.
Steelers 24 Broncos 20
Detroit (+9.5) at Minnesota
My constant heckling of Detroit aside, I am one who doesn’t think the Lions have looked that terrible at times this season. They made a harried comeback against the Niners in Week 1, lit up Green Bay for one half in Week 2, then lost on that 66 yard doinker to Baltimore in Week 3.
All of this is explainable, if not forgivable, for a team that at least shows some heart for 3 quarters each Sunday before daggering themselves in the chest in the 4th. Oh, but then they shit the bed for all four quarters last week in Chicago and now I have no idea what to assume.
Sigh.
I like Minnesota to rebound here after laying an egg last week against Cleveland (seven points??), but since Detroit covers the spread every other week they are due again to back door this thing.
Vikings 28 Lions 20
Tennessee (-4) at Jacksonville
Just when I thought the Titans losing to the Jets was the most embarrassing thing that happened last weekend, Urban Meyer gets busted skipping the team flight home in exchange for some grab-assing on the local college bar scene. Larry Eustachy would be so proud:
 |
| Uh oh. Hopefully Coach can convince everyone that the blonde on his lap is Trevor Lawrence. |
The fact that they still have a head coach might be Jacksonville’s only victory this week. And since all of the closed-door meetings in the Jags’ organization were for Public Relations damage control and everything but the Titans, I’m fairly confident this is going to be all Tennessee.
Titans 30 Jaguars 13
Philadelphia at Carolina (-3)
The Panthers ran into a bit of a buzz saw last week, but with three of their next four games against 1-win teams, there’s no reason to ease up on the gas with Carolina.
Panthers 28 Eagles 14
Miami (+10) at Tampa Bay
The Dolphins are in real danger of falling to 1-4 and all but ruining what started as a very hopeful season. That sort of desperation alone makes me think they might cover 10 points against a Bucs team that certainly doesn’t look like they have all cylinders firing right now.
Tampa Bay wins this one, no doubt. I’ll very reluctantly pick Miami to keep it closer than 10 though.
Buccaneers 29 Dolphins 20
New England (-8.5) at Houston
I didn’t have this rule prior to the start of the season, but never ever take a team quarterbacked by Davis Mills to cover any kind of spread. Even if they were playing against the CU Buffs this would be the rule.
Patriots 24 Texans 9
Cleveland at Los Angeles Chargers (-2)
As things go in the AFC West, the Chargers are sitting about as pretty in 2021 as Big Pharma. Consecutive huge wins against divisional foes have the Bolts in prime jockeying position in the Conference, and if not for a 56 yard FG by Dallas in Week 2 they’d be one of only two undefeated teams remaining.
Cleveland is also 3-1 but two of their wins have come against a Houston team who just got shellacked 40-0, and Matt Nagy’s traveling quarterback circus otherwise known as the Bears. It also appears that shaky Baker Mayfield is back and cannot be counted on for anything other than Progressive commercials right now.
In summary, I see no reason to go against the Chargers this week in a home game that might actually have 51% of the crowd cheering for them.
Chargers 27 Browns 24
Chicago at Las Vegas (-5.5)
Last week Matt Nagy was forced to start Justin Fields in place of the gingered—I mean, injured—Andy Dalton. In conjunction he mercifully handed over the play-calling duties to that riverboat gambler of an offensive coordinator he has, ol’ Bill “Throw it more than 6 yards” Lazor.
Is it any coincidence that all of a sudden the Bears looked capable if not occasionally threatening on offense? Well…
I suspect playing the Lions had a lot to do with it, so maybe not.
The Raiders get back on track.
Raiders 31. Bears 17
San Francisco at Arizona (-5)
The Trey Lance era begins this weekend and despite what should be a very difficult game in the desert here, the next two weeks set up for Jimmy Garappolo to be Wally Pipp'd (or Drew Bledsoe'd, for football’s sake).
That being said, San Francisco fans will have to wait a week to smile about it. If you've been reading the Bird Droppings this long (and I thank you if you have) you are fully aware of at least two things:
- I do not like to take rookie QB's on the road (unless that road leads to the Meadowlands, as we learned a couple of weeks ago).
- I love me some Kyler Murray and am riding the K-Train as far as it will take me.
Take Arizona minus the points here.
Cardinals 33 49'ers 17
New York Giants at Dallas (-7)
Dallas is hot.
I guess, if we’re talking only about the last 6 days, so is New York.
But something tells me Micah Parsons, Trevon Diggs, and this Cowboys defense is going to make short work of Danny Dimes and crew. Take the ’Boys here for sure.
Cowboys 31 Giants 20
Buffalo at Kansas City (-3)
Wow. Where to start?
Kansas City, even when they appear to be struggling, will cause any defense to shake like a unit of French soldiers. They’ve also already lost one game at home and it’s hard to imagine this team going any worse than 7-1 in their own stadium.
Buffalo meanwhile… 35-0, 43-21, and 40-0. Their last three games have been complete ear-holers and that can’t bode well for a Chiefs team who’s best defense is letting the other team score so they can get the ball back to their offense.
As someone who holds a masters degree in AFC West football, I know far too well the advantage that comes to those in red when playing at Arrowhead. In that vein it’s hard for me to bet against the Chiefs here. At the same time, I am struggling to picture their defense giving up anything less than 35 points to a team who is making 35 points their weekly tradition.
A field goal game sounds about right. A shootout sounds about righter. But Mahomes making magic in prime time sounds about the rightest. All I know for sure is take the over.
Chiefs 42 Bills 38
Indianapolis at Baltimore (-7)
The good news for Indianapolis is Carson Wentz didn't re-aggravate any of his sprained ankles last week.
The bad news is this is a third consecutive road game for the Colts, against a team coming home after two straight weeks out on the road, who has a Lamar Jackson who is actually starting to polish his air game to match those crazy legs of his. Oh, and it’s in prime time.
I like the Ravens a lot here.
Ravens 35 Colts 24
You’ve been Bird dropped. Tell a friend!
Last Week Straight Up Winners: 9-7
Current Season Total Straight Up Winners: 44-20
Last Week Against the Spread: 9-7
Current Season Total Against the Spread: 36-27-1
No comments:
Post a Comment