Down to the Last Drop(pings): The Bird’s Week 13 Pick

Anyone who knows me is aware that for the better part of four decades I have treated Denver Broncos football as a religion.

I’ve never missed a game, and that is not hyperbole. I’ve sat through good times and bad times; seen quarterbacks from Elway to Wilson and everything in between.

I remember Rich Karlis hitting uprights and Dan Reeves using two starting quarterbacks in the same game one time against Dallas. Even learned how to do something called “Tebowing” at one point.

But what I’m feeling right now in what has become our seventh season of bad football and NFL irrelevancy is a 5-alarm, full blown test of my faith: Apathy.

Anyone who knows me is also aware that I normally reserve eye-rolls and indifference for such things as Kardashian nuptials, Grammy & Oscar speeches, MTV ever since it stopped playing music, and… the Colorado Rockies.

But never the Denver Broncos. 

Yet not only did I find myself last Sunday fighting the urge to watch Spain and Germany kick a soccer ball around, but I lamented the fact that the Broncos-Panthers game wasn’t ending fast enough. I wanted out.

And when I woke up Monday morning having skipped my usual ritual of watching Sunday Night Football and gathering my thoughts around the league’s action for this week’s blog, I realized just how apathetic the Broncos have made me.

They are so bad (and somehow still getting worse) that not only is it no longer any fun to discuss, but I flat out find it hard to care anymore. For this season. For football in general. For these picks and this blog, even. 

They are so much more of a mess than just this 3-8 debacle of a season; it’s the absence of draft picks to get out of said mess, it’s the half a billion in quarterback cash tied up in Russell Wilson, and —scariest of all— it’s the losing culture that now infiltrates the halls of Dove Valley where proud men like Pat Bowlen once walked and commanded nothing less than the exact opposite of losing.

In fact, sadly, the Broncos organization has officially reached Colorado Rockies levels of self-reflection this season by deciding to try and change absolutely nothing. Week after week after week.

Sigh.

Apathy.

Like Tom Hanks in Castaway, I’m pushing off and setting adrift. All hope and other feelings are beyond fleeting; they are gone.

This week’s blog will contain dialogue around just one game.

Good bye, Wilson.

Denver at Baltimore (-8.5)

This Bronco offense couldn’t score in a women’s prison with a handful of pardons and keys to the conjugal room.

I have a million things to rant about, from George Paton’s mortgaging of our future to Nathaniel Hackett’s pissing down the leg of our present— but I’ll spare everyone. Because I know all of us are in the same boat, paddling with the same blank stares on our faces.

So… For comedic reasons only, I’ll pander to the quarterback play today.

With Russell Wilson’s most recent display of passing ineptitude to springboard off of, last Sunday I found myself pondering just how bad this is. 

And I came up with:

Other Denver Bronco quarterbacking options I would kill for at this point:

• Tim Tebow again.
• Another Covid outbreak in the quarterbacks room so wide receiver Kendal Hinton can play QB on 24 hr notice.
• Tommy Maddox and Shawn Moore platooning every-other-play like they did that one time in 1990.
• Joe Theisman. After the Lawrence Taylor hit.
• Frank Tripucka.
• Ryan Leaf.
• Uncle Rico.
• This guy:

Even this guy, if that big ol’ Dr. Pepper can could catch,
is chucking the ball six yards downfield.
That triples the average Russell Wilson attempt!

In perhaps the most damning evidence of my discontent, last Sunday I even found myself daydreaming and drooling over Sam Darnold  —Sam Freaking Darnold!— as he stopped, dropped and rolled his way into the end zone for the most pathetic touchdown I think I’ve ever witnessed. 

Yep. Even Sam Darnold knows what to do in a fire.

Sam the Man saw the dumpster fire that is
the Denver Broncos and went into Fire Marshal Bill mode.

Stop, drop, and roll!

The next time I even suggest Denver has a chance in a game this season, please form a line and invite the masses to kick me in the nuts.

Baltimore only needs to score twice this day to win. Hell, maybe even once will do. I don’t know what else to say. 

I don’t care.

Ravens 27  Broncos 9

There you have it. If I don’t rebound spiritually in time to post another blog this season, you can blame the 2022 Denver Broncos. They’ve drained all the blood from this tulip.

I do appreciate your readership and have enjoyed the many weekly interactions with everyone. It’s fun. Well, it used to be. 

Be well, my fiends!

Season Total Straight Up Winners: 112-67-1

Season Total Against the Spread:  99-81

Lock of the Week Picks: 8-4

Trap Game of the Week:  4-8

Oh! One last parting thought of despair. Caution: read at your own risk!

Over the last 6 seasons the Broncos have had a better 
winning percentage than the Colorado Rockies exactly
ZERO TIMES.

Please, God, nobody tell the Monforts. They might misconstrue such a stat to mean they are doing just fine. Lol

How to See Some Scoring: The Bird’s Week 12 NFL Picks

We went 11-3 picking the straight up winners last week; and had it not been for a game winning punt return with :05 seconds left, the phony-baloney Giants, and the crappy ass Packers, it very well could have been 14-0. 

Against the Spread, Bird Droppings Inc. went 9-5 and is now comfortably +20 games in the “making money” side of the ledger. 

Not to mention, the Thanksgiving Day Bird Droppings yielded a great start to Week 12.

Hey, speaking of giving thanks: Thankfully for Denver Bronco fans the World Cup is here. So we can all turn to the fast-paced game of soccer to finally see some scoring! Ba-dum-tsss!

Let’s bury a header or two into the back of the net, shall we?

Bird’s Eye View 

Denver (-1) at Carolina

Watching the Broncos this season has officially reached Frustration Level: Buying Taylor Swift Tickets.

Yep. We’re way past that limit.

I have no idea how any team not named the CU Buffs can be an underdog to this Broncos squad. I can only deduce that it has something to do with Sam Darnold being involved, so I guess I’ll lean towards the Donkeys like the idiot I am.

Broncos 15  Panthers 10

Atlanta at Washington (-3.5)

I think I’ve figured it out: Taylor Heinekie is a Civil War general’s beard away from being Ryan Fitzpatrick.

Coaches love him. Teammates love him. And despite falling somewhere between Gus Frerotte and Vinny Testeverde on the “Serviceable Quarterbacks” scale, he somehow wins in a way that you wonder if the regular starter could have done the same.

Washington keeps its mojo going against undermanned Atlanta.

Commanders 25  Falcons 17

Houston at Miami (-14)

Miami has punted 2 times in the last three weeks. Houston will match that in their first two possessions. Miami is coming off a two week break. Houston has taken all 11 weeks off thus far. I could go on and on….

Dolphins 31  Texans 10

Cincinnati at Tennessee (+1)

Toughest game of the weekend for this prognosticator. I don’t fully believe in Cincinnati and have been very vocal in my belief that last year’s AFC Champs won’t even make the playoffs this year. 

I have to think this is a roadblock game for the ugly helmets.

Titans 28  Bengals 24

Chicago (+7) at New York Jets

New quarterback for Gang Green, and rumor has it the Jets told Zach Wilson to not even suit up today. Wow. Coaches and teammates alike must really hate this guy.

That being said it is almost impossible to handicap this game. 

Mike White vs. Trevor Siemian -and/or- Nathan Peterman? Barf.

Bears 10  Jets 13

Tampa Bay (-3) at Cleveland

I haven’t looked up Tom Brady’s career record against the Browns, but given the results of the last few weeks I do know he is now 4-0 all time in international games and 0-1 with international women.

Since Cleveland is not an international woman, but does resemble downtown Beirut, I’ll take TB12 for the win here.

Buccaneers 19  Browns 14

LA Chargers (-2.5) at Arizona

Both of these teams are as shaky as Michael J. Fox on a roller coaster. But the Bolts are better.

Chargers 27  Cardinals 21

Las Vegas at Seattle (-4)

Even though they are 3-7, it remains very real that the Raiders are still 1-7 against teams not named the Broncos.

Seattle wins coming off an extra week of rest and prep. David Carr goes back to crying on tv afterwards.

Seahawks 27  Raiders 20 

LA Rams  at Kansas City (-15.5)

The Rams are folding faster than Superman on laundry day and now enter this game without Matt Stafford, without Cooper Kupp, and without the guy who’s been daylighting as their starting running back the past several weeks.

Meanwhile the Chiefs are completely stocked and need merely :15 seconds anytime they feel like scoring on you.

Even though I’m learning the hard way that games that look like sure blowouts this season are routinely becoming late covers for unsuspecting underdogs, I simply don’t know where LA is going to get their points from today.

I think Kansas City rolls here. And when I say “rolls here” I mean like Harlem Globetrotters vs. Washington Generals rolling. 

The Rams are about to get de-pants’d and globetrotted.

Chiefs 34  Rams 9

Green Bay at Philadelphia (-6)

If only they were smart, Green Bay would kick off their future with a canny little marketing campaign focused on the debut of Jordan “City of Brotherly” Love.

Instead, they keep rolling with #12.

Philly has looked beatable these past two weeks but with Dallas hot on their heels, I’ll take the birds to win and cover.

Eagles 30  Packers 20

Pittsburgh at Indianapolis (-2.5)

Time to pull out the “Don’t bet on crappy teams” gambit.

If they were getting more than two and a half points, I’d be tempted to bet Pittsburgh here as TJ Watt & Co. should be able to tee off on that statue otherwise known as Matt Ryan.

Matt Ryan gets on his horse in an attempted scramble.

But so long as they only need to eek out a FG win to cover,  I’ll take Indy at home as they seem to be slightly reinvigorated since the head coaching change.

Colts 22  Steelers 19

Fox in the Hen House

Baltimore (-3.5) at Jacksonville

A 7-3 team who has won four in a row, five of their last six, and is about to play their 3rd straight away game in either a dome or a warm weather city in the middle of shopping season; against a 3-7 team who has lost six in a row whenever the Raiders aren’t involved, and the former is only favored by two safeties?

It’s A Trap!

Probably got me hook, line, and sinker yet again… but I’m biting.

Ravens 23  Jaguars 17

Bet the Nest

New Orleans at San Francisco (-8)

San Fran not only looks like a formidable foe in the NFC, but they have done me right three times now when being at least 7 pt favorites.

The Saints, contrarily, haven’t come anywhere close to doing me right and have screwed me whenever I do take them with a side of points.

This is an easy pick for The Bird and I wouldn’t stop you if you followed me on it. Niners roll.

49’ers 28  Saints 16

These have been your Black Friday, World Cup Bird Droppings! Goaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaalllllll! 

Season Total Straight Up Winners: 101-62-1

Season Total Against the Spread:  92-72

Lock of the Week Picks: 7-4

Trap Game of the Week:  4-7

The Thanksgiving Day Picks

Hoping your table has a better aroma than this one,
and that whoever is doing the cooking can actually cook!
Happy Thanksgiving! ~Bird

Happy Thanksgiving, Bird lovers! (See what I did there?)

This week we count our blessings for things like friends & family, our health, and that Melvin Gordon doesn’t have to carry anything across a goal line for the Broncos anymore.

And it’s gratitude like this that helps us to see light and hope in otherwise dire situations.

For instance, while recent election results and current topics of social strife do indeed make excellent table talk at any gathering, always remember a well-timed "how ’bout them Lions?" can provide a much-needed blast of levity to tense conversations.

The Bird wishes everyone a blessed day filled with love, good tidings, and plenty of football. The rest of the picks will be posted Sunday, but for now…

Here are my Turkey Day picks!

Buffalo (-9.5) at Detroit 

Thanks to the Lake Erie weather gods, last Sunday Ford Field finally played home to a playoff-caliber football team for once. And this week, the fine people of Detroit get to watch them.

Bills 37  Lions 24

New York Giants at Dallas (-10)

The New York Giants are missing starters on defense, they have the NFL’s weakest receiving corps, and they just got blown out at home by the Lions. No one gets blown out at home by the Lions unless it’s the Lions. 

While Dallas has lost 3 Thanksgiving games in a row and are 1-10 ATS in the last 11 such games, they are also coming off an impressive shellacking of the NFC’s #2 team on the road. 

I feel like they are due to reverse some trends here. 

Cowboys 31  Giants 20

New England  at Minnesota (-2.5)

I’m not saying there is ever a good time to get your ass kicked 40-3 in a football game, but I do know it helps if you can suit up again four days later and put it immediately behind you.

Minnesota is thankful for the quick turn around and will put last week’s debacle in the rear view.

Vikings 27  Patriots 17

Gobble, gobble! Enjoy the games and check back Sunday for the rest of my Week 12 largesse! 

Shake It Off! The Bird’s Week 11 NFL Picks

Detroit has a two game winning streak. Buffalo has a two game losing streak. Josh Allen all of a sudden looks like Josh Rosen, Justin Fields is breaking all of Michael Vick's QB rushing records, and Colt McCoy just beat John Wolford (who?) to put the defending Super Bowl Champs in the NFC basement.

Click here: What the hell’s going on out there??

No wonder all of our picks suck lately.

Here at the nest The Bird went 5-9 ATS and did no better picking the straight up winners in Week 10, marking the worst single week I’ve had in the past two seasons.

With that kind of .350 winning percentage I now know what it feels like to be the Cincinnati Reds or one of Taylor Swift’s boyfriends for a week, and I’m not fond of being in such company.

Shake it off, Bird!

I’m still +16 Against the Spread on the season, and looking to bank a little coin while building on my 90-59-1 overall record as Week 11 kicks off.

LFG!

Bird’s Eye View 

Tennessee at Green Bay (-3.5)

Both teams got big wins last week, but Green Bay's was a cathartic rally vs. an NFC contender while Tennessee's was against the 1955 Fort Wayne Pistons.

Correlative visual of Tennessee’s offensive
opponent last week, the Denver Broncos. 

I guess, all things being equal, Tennessee won't get away with scoring just 17 points this time around. And I'll take Aaron Rodgers at home vs. Ryan Tannehill on the road every time. 

Packers 24  Titans 17

Philadelphia (-6.5) at Indianapolis

First off, I’d like to congratulate the Colts for their win last week against the Raiders. That was a game between two coaches, one of whom was completely unprepared. The other was Jeff Saturday.

That new coach smell will fade quickly though, as Philly rebounds this week.

Eagles 27  Colts 20

LA Rams (+3.5) at New Orleans

Picking this game is not for the faint of heart. Imagine asking Mr. & Mrs. Menendez who their favorite son was, and you have the right idea. 

“Neither.”

Saints 22  Rams 20

Chicago at Atlanta (-3)

As mentioned above, all of a sudden Justin Fields looks like the love child of Randal Cunningham and Michael Vick. I picked him up about 5 weeks ago in Fantasy, then immediately dropped him the following Tuesday. So of course he does. 

Then again, what good is having Randal Cunningham and Michael Vick for a mom and dad when you can’t even beat the Lions at home? 

Falcons 23  Bears 17

New York Jets (+3.5) at New England

Mac Jones has been, how shall we say, not very good. And Sauce Gardner has basically been the NFL’s version of Chick-fil-A for wide receivers; which is to say none are open on Sundays.

The Jets have a little Ralphie Parker-beats-up-Scut Farkus thing going on right now. They just punk’d the Bills and I have no doubt they want to erase 25 years of wedgies from the chowderheads too.

They may not win, but it’ll be a close divisional game. Ah, what the hell, this is Ralphie Freakin’ Parker we’re talking about!

Jets 23  Patriots 20  OT

Carolina at Baltimore (-13)

This is a line so high Baker Mayfield can’t even see over it.

Tiny baker. Big challenge. 

In a weather game pitting two run-heavy teams you normally take the points, the under, and a nap. But Lamar Jackson is straight cooking right now and Baker Mayfield is straight… bakering. 

I gotta go Baltimore big here.

Ravens 29  Panthers 13

Cleveland (+8.5) at Buffalo

Urgency, refocus, and what would have been 3 feet of snow should have all been at play here for Buffalo. Instead, the game gets moved to Detroit and now we’re all deprived of seeing fat, shirtless men in a blizzard yelling things.

Edge: Cleveland.

Bills 21  Browns 16

Las Vegas (+2.5) at Denver

The only thing clear about these two teams is that they unfortunately are not playing the Houston Texans enough. 

Both have beaten Houston. Both have lost to Indy. Denver beat Jacksonville, and the Raiders lost to Jacksonville. Raiders beat Denver. Rock beats scissors.

You can’t triple stamp a double stamp, Lloyd!
The Broncos and Raiders traveling through the 2022 season.

Since the Raiders just struggled vs. a team with a head coach who was four days into the job, and who’s never coached anything before in his life, I can only assume they’ll find easier treading against a team with an even more incapable coach than that.

History also shows they only need 17 points to be victors this day. 

Raiders 17   Broncos 16

Cincinnati (-3.5) at Pittsburgh

Cincinnati is the hottest of any of the 5-4 teams in the league; while in Pittsburgh a Minkah Fitzpatrick- and Najee Harris-less Steelers squad not fortunate enough to be playing the Saints again makes for a lukewarm feel at best.

Cincinnati is battling back from an 0-2 start to the season, in main part due to a shocking Week 1 loss at home to these very Steelers. It cost The Bird his first “Bet the Nest” loss as a matter of fact.

Well. To that I say: Revenge is a dish best served in all white unis. The Bengals go full-on albino tiger and I’ll watch this game in my Walter White tightie-whities as well.

Bengals 31  Steelers 17

Dallas (-1) at Minnesota 

Last week Minnesota snatched victory from the jaws of defeat, and Dallas snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.

This makes for a tricky diagnosis as Minnesota surely has a bit of a letdown here, right(?)… while Dallas must be eager to avenge a bad loss in a game they had all but won… right(?).

Vegas is as perplexed as I, setting this line essentially as a pk’em. One would think the home field advantage should set the 8-1 Vikes as favorites over the 6-3 ’Boys.

Not so.

Cowboys 28  Vikings 24

Kansas City at LA Chargers (+5)

As badly as the Chargers could use some Rivers-to-Gates right now, and as auto-pilot as the Chiefs are in the AFC West, the fact remains that the last 4 games between these two teams have been decided by 7 pts or less.

I don’t often look too heavily at trends, but something tells me here.

Chiefs 27  Chargers 24

San Francisco (-8) at Arizona

Seldom are the times when an entire team responds better for their backup QB than they do for the regular guy. I mean, don’t tell Drew Bledsoe that, but…

I guess all those Cardinals players really were sick of Kyler’s shit. And it showed!

That being said, did you know that a Colt McCoy led team has never lost to the 49’ers in Mexico? Yep. They are currently 0-0.

But soon to be 0-1.

Niners 30  Cardinals 20

Bet the Nest

Washington (-3) at Houston

Washington is flying high while the Texans endure another week of wondering what exactly their purpose in life is. Like Bill Murray in Groundhog Day, Houston fans roll out of bed this Sunday to live the same shit all over again.

The Houston faithful prepare for
another weekend of Texans football.

In just about every other scenario, I would guard against Washington having a let down after such a signature win last Monday night in Philly.

But not here. Not against Houston. And not in Chase Young’s return from his torn ACL. That presence alone will be motivation enough for the red helmets.

Commanders 22  Texans 17

Fox in the Hen House

Detroit (+3.5) at New York Giants

The Giants, at home, minus anything less than a touchdown against a team like the Lions feels like easy money. 

• Giants are 3rd in rushing; Lions are 31st against the run.
• Justin Fields just ran for 700 yards against the Lions.
• Saquon Barkley is a better running back than Justin Fields.
• Detroit hasn’t won back-to-back-to-back games since the Berlin Wall fell.

And yet…New York has their biggest game of the season four days after this one on Thanksgiving Day, in Dallas. Might they be “looking past” an easy home game against a crappy team?

Total trap. 

Giants 23  Lions 20

Just like those 18 points the Fort Wayne Pistons once dropped in an NBA game… and hopefully Coach Hackett come Monday…so too have you been: (Bird) Dropped!

Season Total Straight Up Winners: 90-59-1

Season Total Against the Spread:  83-67 

Lock of the Week Picks: 6-4

Trap Game of the Week:  3-7

Hallo, Deutschland!: The Bird’s Week 10 NFL Picks

Guten abend! With the NFL in Berlin this week, I figured I’d honor my old German teacher, Frau Dovas; and my college German professor, Herr Kern, with some football forecasting that resembles the work ethic and efficiency of the German people.

Which is really just fancy speak for: this week’s picks were made under the influence of Kölsch beer instead of my traditional Miller Lites and whisky. 

Dieter from SNL’s Sprockets may have also creeped into my reasonings. Lets’s dance!

My secret to handicapping efficiency.

The Bird, aka der vogel, was 8-5 against the spread and 9-4 straight up last week. Given a couple of huge upsets that NO ONE saw coming, it wasn't a bad showing at all. Still, there’s room for improvement in Week 10. Es ist zeit!

Bird’s Eye View 

Atlanta (-2.5) at Carolina

Atlanta is one helluva difficult team to figure out. Just when you think they’re decent, they suck. And just when they start to suck, they’re decent.

Carolina is basically the same, except replace “decent” with “sucks even more.”

Falcons 24  Panthers 14

Seattle (+2.5) at Tampa

If you woulda told me at any moment in time prior to last Sunday that one of these quarterbacks threw the ball 58 times and had a QB Rating of 79 in Week 9, while the other was an efficient 26-for-33 with a QBR of 110; and then told me Tom Brady was the first and Geno Smith was the latter…and then advised that both stat lines basically tell the story of this entire season…

I woulda called you a stooge.

Das ist nicht Tom Brady! Das ist eine booby!

Sadly, I think I’ve run my course of not taking Seattle seriously. That ends today, as the Seahawks have the better team, coach, and quarterback right now.

Also, it turns out Munich is fanatic about something other than Oktoberfest and women with hairy armpits. Yep. Bavaria’s capital is a big Seahawks town. Who knew? But they say this will feel like a home game for the birds.

Seahawks 23  Buccaneers 20

Denver at Tennessee (-2.5)

As I watched last Sunday’s Tennessee-KC game and saw the Titans hanging with the Chiefs despite their third string quarterback who looked as if he graduated from the Tim Tebow School of Throwing Mechanics, I couldn’t help but think how Denver would be getting destroyed in that same game even with a future Hall of Famer at the controls. 

Denver’s not on the same level as Tennessee. Unless—Unless— the Titans do something completely stupid like, oh I don’t know, stop handing Derek Henry the football?

We won’t be so lucky.

Titans 20  Broncos 15

Cleveland at Miami (-3.5)

Tua, Tyreek, and the Miami Dolphins are humming right now.

Cleveland hasn’t really hummed since the days of Bernie Kosar. And even that didn’t really turn out too well.

Dolphins 26  Browns 20

New Orleans (-1) at Pittsburgh

This is one of a few games this weekend that pit two teams who are either incapable or dysfunctional, or just generally crappy, against each other in a matchup with absolutely no impact on the conference playoff pictures unless you are a lucky resident of the NFC South.

Since the Saints are of the latter, and 6-11 just might win you a division, I’ll take them to win what is close to being a pk bet.

Also, I found the perfect headgear for watching this type of game:

Saints and Steelers fans, rest easy!
The Ostrich Head Pillow is the perfect
aid for watching this clash of non-titans.

Saints 19  Steelers 17

Detroit at Chicago (-3)

Bears 24  Lions 21

Minnesota at Buffalo (-3.5)

Now that the election deniers, democracy “savers,” senate seaters, and gubernatorials have all had their orgy of fun at our expense, Bills-Vikings is now the single biggest battle that America has its eye on this second week in November. 

Thank God.

It remains to be seen if Josh Allen’s elbow is ok, and if he ends up sidelined I am likely to edit this pick on Sunday, but for now, I’ll take the Bills minus the generous 3.5 points (which has been bought down from 6.5 with the aforementioned question mark surrounding Allen’s bum wing). Buyer beware. 

Bills 27  Vikings 21

Jacksonville at Kansas City (-9.5)

Jacksonville just won for the first time in 7 weeks, but it came against the 1976 Bucs— I mean the Las Vegas Raiders— so we can’t put much stock into it.

Kansas City should handle their business at home.

Chiefs 31  Jaguars 17

Indianapolis at Las Vegas (-4.5)

This is a matchup between the team who just fired their coach and the team who still needs to fire their coach.

Normally I’d take the points here, citing my theories that teams with interim coaches usually play inspired ball; and the Raiders can’t be trusted to beat the dust out of a floor rug right now. 

But gawd this Colts’ offense is putrid. Putrid I tells ya.

Raiders 24  Colts 14

Arizona at LA Rams (-1.5)

All I know is we’ve reached the point in the season where Kyler Murray’s Napoleon Complex is kicking in.

I wonder if Murray knows that Hopkins is better than him?

The Cardinals QB seems to always be yelling at someone, be it opposing fans, his head coach, or his star wide receiver. I can’t imagine being married to this chick.

The Rams are reeling just as bad, but at least they seem cohesive. I’ll take the home team to win by more than the 1+ spread.

Rams 31  Cardinals 28

LA Chargers at San Francisco (-7)

If the Bolts have to navigate against this defense without Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, it is not going to go as well as it did last week vs. Atlanta.

San Fran has had two weeks to rest, prepare, and further indoctrinate Christian McCaffrey into the game plan.

It seems like a lot to give for what feels like a shootout type of game, but I’ll lean on the Niners to win by more than a touch.

49’ers 33   Chargers 24

Washington (+11) at Philadelphia

Okay, so the Eagles are 8-0. But they cost me a “Bet the Nest” pick last week and their baseball brethren also screwed me on some World Series stuff. 

So, to those fans who boo Santa Claus, cancer-stricken children, and Cowboys players laying paralyzed at midfield… allow me to point out:

• Philly's 8 wins are against: 1) the 2-6 Lions, 2) Kirk Cousins in prime time, 3) Carson Wentz, 4) Jacksonville, 5) Arizona without Deandre Hopkins, 6) Dallas without Dak, 7) the armpit of Pennsylvania Steelers, and 8) the 1-win Houston Texans.

So there. You guys actually kinda suck. I'll take Washington to cover here.

Eagles 30  Commanders 20

Bet the Nest

Houston at New York Giants (-5.5)

The G-Men return home after a humbling defeat in Seattle; Houston stays on the road after sucking butt in Philly. As a general rule in life, being humbled is always better than sucking butt.

Pick New York and sleep well.

Giants 23  Texans 9

Fox in the Hen House

Dallas (-5) at Green Bay 

Detroit just found out how rewarding it is to play against nature's fastest wilting flower: the Green Bay Packers. 

I’m not sure at what point the cheeseheads plug in Jordan Love and prep for their future, but it feels like the time is near.

Having said all that, this game feels like a total trap. I’m nervous laying the 5 points, but the eye test tells me Dallas should roll here. Clearly, though…

Cowboys 27  Packers 20

And just like that, now iz zee time on zer bloggin’ ven vee dance! 

Dieter Sprocket doing the Griddy.

You’ve been Bird Dropped! Auf wiedersehen!

Season Total Straight Up Winners: 84-51-1

Season Total Against the Spread:  78-58

Lock of the Week Picks: 5-4

Trap Game of the Week:  3-6

Prayer Candles, Up! The Bird’s Week 9 Picks

Before we get started, prayers up for an NFL Legend on this day. Father (hang) Time finally caught up to the only punter ever drafted in the 1st Round, and the only full-time one to be enshrined in the Hall of Fame. I remember him vividly from the days of my youth while attending Raider-hating summer camps my parents put me through. 

Rest In Peace, Ray Guy. I don’t say this about many Raiders, but you sir were one of my faves.

The best ever.

Now then, the Week 9 Bird Droppings. But first, a look back on Week 8:

In the shadows of Wembley Stadium, the Broncos avoided relegation last weekend, leaving such demotions for those losers from Norwich City. And Matt Ryan.

Thank God I lit that prayer candle.

It's working!

So while I’m still thinking I’d rather watch the World Cup at this point, our heroes in Orange get a much-needed win and are no worse off than such preseason hopefuls as the Packers, Bucs or the defending champ Rams.

If only we were in the NFC South, we’d be talking about a division title.

Speaking of the NFC South…

And now, a 60-second spout-off of all the stupid things that we witnessed in Week 8. *deep inhale*… The Falcons and Panthers managed the last few minutes of regulation and OT like a couple of bumbling idiots that literally almost resulted in a 4-way tie for first place in the South, where 3-5 records rule the day… Justin Fields is the latest bonehead player to not understand that an opposing player with the ball must be touched in order to be down… and kudos to Micah Parsons on the same play for getting up and running for a touchdown; because there are an equal amount of morons in pads who would have fallen on that fumble and laid there planning their sideline celebration, having never dawned on them that they weren’t down… Taunting in the NFL (eye rolls, please). In a sport where grown men hit, tackle, and crush each other while inflicting physical pain, it’s 15 yards and a potential ejection for hurting someone’s feelings… Speaking of hurt feelings: I see you, Raiders… Did anyone else see the ref in Seattle call a penalty on the “Seattle Mariners?” I don’t know what the hell is going on anymore, but I’m pretty sure Lou Piniella was ready to argue it… And finally, in a league where “young QBs” are making Tim Tebow look like Joe Montana at an alarming rate (Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, Davis Mills, Kenny Pickett, Malik Willis, PJ Walker, Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence, and Indianapolis’s very own Sam Ehlinger), Matt Ryan is seriously not even suited up on the sidelines as a backup option for the latter? We all know he got “benched” so Jim Irsay could get his jollies with his new Longhorn signal caller, but dude isn’t even in uniform now??

All of a sudden I hear The Pointer Sisters for some reason. 

Click this link to see: Fields Jumps Parsons

The Bird had a bounce-back weekend last week, and both the straight up picks and the picks against the spread are well in the black. Let’s keep it going…

(PS- several teams are on their bye this week, including the Broncos, who’s offense will be resting from that 21-pt outburst that surely drained them of all their powers.)

Let us make like Justin Fields and jump (for my love) into Week 9:

Bird’s Eye View 

Minnesota at Washington (+3.5)

Taylor Heinicke is one of the few “young QBs” I did not mention in my rant above, mainly because he is not playing like a twat. In fact, quite the opposite. T.H. appears to have a winning touch and his teammates are yet again believing in his every move. This kinda makes him like Jesus. Or Tim Tebow. 

All of that being said however, this is Kirk Cousins' "revenge game," and even though Minnesota feels paper tiger-ish to me, I always like a good retribution.

Minnesota wins but Washington covers.

Vikings 24  Commanders 21  

Carolina at Cincinnati (-7.5)

After laying a prime time egg by the lake last Monday night, I can’t fathom Cincy doing anything less than what the Oregon Ducks are going to do to my beloved CU Buffaloes this Saturday.

Bengals 34  Panthers 13

Buffalo (-12.5) at New York Jets

A wise man from the mean streets of North Alamosa once told me, "Son, don't ever bet on crappy teams to beat good ones." And because Zach Wilson's name was mentioned above, I don’t think New York stands a chance at covering the spread.

Bills 31  Jets 13

Indianapolis at New England (-4.5)

Bill Belichick surpassed George Halas last weekend and now sets his sights on Don Shula’s spot as the NFL’s all time winningest head coach.

In typical style, Bill was elated:

Danny DeVito and Bill Belichick reflect on Bill
becoming the 2nd winningest coach in NFL history.

I can’t get on board with the Indianapolis Colts right now, what with their bizarre handling of Matt Ryan and complete mis-use of Jonathan Taylor and all.

To think there’s a team with a more fu-k’d up quarterback room than New England’s, is reason enough to stay away from the horseshoes here.

Patriots 23  Colts 15

Las Vegas (-1.5) at Jacksonville

I feel like if judges could hand out punishment in the form of watching tv on Sundays, this would be it.

I mean, last Sunday the Raiders failed to cross midfield in New Orleans, while the Jaguars couldn’t keep up with that offensive juggernaut known as the Denver Broncos.

Criminy.

I'll begrudgingly take the Silver & Black here, mainly because they didn’t fly back from Greenwich Mean Time in the same week that we also set our clocks back. This has to matter somehow.

Raiders 29  Jaguars 20

Miami at Chicago (+4.5)

Chicago really does just seem to be poorly lead and basically pretty shitty. And to top it off now they’re dressing like Reece’s Pieces wrappers. For shame. That being said, the only thing uglier than all of that may be the weather in Chicago this weekend, and because of that I'll take the points.

Dolphins 23  Bears 22

Green Bay (-3.5) at Detroit

I don’t see Detroit winning, much less keeping it within a field goal against a desperate and embarrassed Packer team hanging on to their season by a thread. Come to think of it, I don't see Detroit winning, much less keeping it within a field goal... ever.

Packers 24  Lions 14

LA Chargers (-3) at Atlanta

Two weeks ago I would have jumped all over the three-game-winning-streak and suddenly surging Chargers here.

Then Seattle went into LA and laid the wood to the Bolts in an impressive showing that resembled that ambush Colonel Custer fell to at the Battle of Little Big Horn.

And now, to further complicate matters, Atlanta all of a sudden looks like a team of Andy Warhols who stumble serendipitously into wins you never saw coming. 

Sigh. 

This is another Rosie O’Donnell at a salad bar game. Avoid it. But since I have to pick, gimme the Chargers coming off an extra week to prepare I guess. 

Chargers 30  Falcons 24

LA Rams (+3.5) at Tampa Bay

All I know is whoever loses this game is gonna be sweating like Roger Ebert.

Someone’s gonna be on a big thumbs down by Sunday night.

I honestly don’t know which team pulls this one out in what has otherwise been disastrous seasons for both.

Cooper Kupp’s injury definitely plays a big role, and I suppose since they are the road team there is disadvantage for LA in having to fly across country and play in front of a loud and rowdy opposing crowd. Then again, the Rams are used to playing in front of loud and rowdy opposing crowds even when at home. So that's a wash.

Feels like a field goal game, therefore I’ll take the Rams plus the points. But I think Tampa Bay eeks out the win.

Buccaneers 24  Rams 21

Tennessee (+12.5) at Kansas City

Total trap game here for Tennessee as the Titans must be careful not to look ahead to next week’s huge game against Denver.

If Ryan Tannehill plays I might consider picking the visitors to entertain us with an upset. Then again, even if he does, he sucks. Derek Henry does not suck, however, and right now he is in full King Henry mode. It will be enough for Tennessee to keep it within the spread.

Chiefs 31  Titans 23

Baltimore (-2.5) at New Orleans

Too much inconsistency from the Saints this year. And since they looked downright dominant last week, surely they are due to look like imbeciles this week.  

Gimme Lamar Jackson coming off a mini bye week all day here.

Ravens 27  Saints 16

Bet the Nest

Philadelphia (-13.5) at Houston

Sure, that’s a lot of points.

But of all the teams this season who failed to successfully cover a huge number as favorites, it has been to opponents who have capable offenses lead by quarterbacks who can drive for backdoor points late in blowout games (see: Rodgers, Aaron last week in Buffalo).

Davis Mills is not Rodgers *comma* Aaron, and will not lead the Texans to a backdoor cover.

This one was over the minute the plane landed, and the fans in attendance will be watching the other Houston-Philly game anyway: Series tied, 2-2.

Eagles 37  Texans 13

Fox in the Hen House

Seattle at Arizona (-2)

By now everyone with an internet connection knows that the Geno Smith Seahawks are leading the NFL in inspiring wins, feel good stories, and Russell Wilson memes. Their Week 8 win over America’s other upstart darlings, the Giants, has even further solidified the Sea Chickens as pro football’s chic pick every Sunday. They score, they protect the football, and they force turnovers on D. Not to mention, they just beat the Cardinals two weeks ago.

So why aren't they favored?

Cardinals 26  Seahawks 21

And there you have them. The Week 9 Picks. With a 5.6 sec hang time, bird dropped into the coffin corner. RIP Ray.

Season Total Straight Up Winners: 75-47-1

Season Total Against the Spread:  70-53

Lock of the Week Picks: 5-3

Trap Game of the Week:  3-5

Serenity Now! The Bird's Week 8 NFL Picks

Serenity now! We are dangerously close to one of those “What Would Costanza Do?” issues, where The Bird deploys a stratagem of picking the exact opposite of what I think might happen because that seems to be the way of NFL karma lately.

An anemic Chicago offense hanging 40 on the Patriots in Foxboro? Aaron Rodgers being outplayed by Zach Wilson and Taylor Heinicke? A Tom Brady team falling from grace like a blind roofer?

Stop the madness!

We’re one more whacky week away from a kale shake cleanse to shock the system back into favored results, but for now we’ll just monitor the situation. My picks are suffering, but not totally. Yet…

On with Week 8!

Bird’s Eye View 

Baltimore (-1.5) at Tampa Bay

Tom Brady hasn’t been on a 3-4 team in twenty years. Which means he hasn’t been on a 3-5 team in at least just as long. Welp, he won’t be able to say that come Monday.

A lot of talk this week about how “exhausted” TB12 looks. As noted in last week’s blog: I agree.

Ravens 24  Buccaneers 17

Denver at Jacksonville (-2.5)

I’m still trying to fathom having a defense that has given up just 7 touchdowns in 7 weeks… and being 2-5.

Did you know… In six of their seven games the Denver Broncos have scored 16 points or less. Now consider that if they had just scored 18 points in those games… they would be 6-1 right now. Ouch.

Enjoy the soccer match, England.

Jaguars 15  Broncos 12

Arizona at Minnesota (-3.5)

In the “Game I’ve Given Almost Zero Thought To, However I Have a Strong Feel About” game of the week, I like Minnie here. Skol.

Vikings 31  Cardinals 27

Miami (-3) at Detroit

High up on the side of a mountain called "We Can’t Keep Sucking Forever, Right?” we have two climbers sharing a ledge. One is repelling down; the other climbing. Miami wins and covers. 

Dolphins 29  Lions 18

Chicago (+9.5) at Dallas

Ten points is a lot to give until you remember you’re giving them to the Bears. Well, that’s what I would have said a week ago.

Then Chicago pulls that crap last Monday and completely has everyone scratching their head.

Gimme a beat! The Bears have earned 
at least 9 1/2 points of respect.

Because they just bitch-slapped the Patriots in a way that Ditka would be proud of, I suppose the Janet Jackson “What have you done for me lately” theory applies. Pair that with Zeke Elliot’s bad knee, and I’ll take da Bears to cover as road dogs. They won’t win though.

Cowboys 26  Bears 17

Las Vegas (-1.5) at New Orleans

I’m going to go out on a limb and predict Andy Dalton only throws three interceptions this week. Still too many.

Raiders 27  Saints 23

Carolina (+4.5) at Atlanta

Within the fire sale trades and their interim head coaching situation, Carolina added to the chaos last week with a surprise shellacking of Tampa Bay that no one saw coming.

I think they have officially crossed over into “these guys are so shitty, no one wants to play them” territory.

Falcons 25  Panthers 21

New England (-2.5) at New York Jets

I don't want to alarm anyone, but it's Week 8 and the Jets have the second best record in the AFC.

The last time the Jets looked this good was
that time Broadway Joe was throwing moon balls
to Bobby Brady in Mike and Carol’s backyard.

I don’t like the fact that New York’s undefeated October has come with wins against the hapless Steelers, the trauma-ward Dolphins, the kooky Packers and the CU Buffs— I mean, the Broncos— but at some point you have to give credit where credit is due and recognize 4 wins in a row is 4 wins in a row and you should never apologize for the schedule makers.

That being said, they lost their two best offensive players last week, and they play a pissed off Belichick this week.

Pats rebound.

Patriots 23  Jets 20

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia (-10.5)

Try as they might with a rookie QB and injuries all over the place, Pittsburgh is in a really bad spot here.

It’s the second game of a back-to-back road trip, against the league’s best team coming off their bye, in a city that is punch-drunk on undefeated football and World Series baseball.

It won’t quite be Rocky-Clubber Lang, or even Thunderlips for that matter. But I could definitely see this being a Glass Joe kinda night for the visitors.

Green Corner wins with a knockout.

Eagles 34  Steelers 17

New York Giants (+3) at Seattle

Don't look now, but the Giants and Seahawks are putting together surprisingly remarkable seasons. With Daniel Jones and Geno Smith, no less.

I’ve found the G-Men to be very very good as underdogs this season, so I will continue to bleed blue whenever getting points with these guys.

As for picking a straight up winner:  *throws dart*

Giants 20  Seahawks 17  OT

San Francisco (-1.5) at LA Rams

What we've learned from Buffalo, San Fran, and Dallas in the past 2 months, is if you punch the defending champs in the mouth they will fold faster than Super Man on laundry day.

The Rams have not put up much of a fight
when challenged by the big dogs this season.

The last time these two met, it was less Tyson-Holyfield and more Tyson-McNeely. I like the gold diggers to get the season sweep of their NFC West rivals.

49’ers 24  Rams 21

Washington (+3) at Indianapolis

How do we celebrate the long-anticipated Carson Wentz vs. Matt Ryan Bowl?

With Taylor Heinicke and Sam Ehlinger of course!

Because Colts QB’s making their first start are 1-15 since 1970, I’ll go with the trend and pick Sam Ehlinger to lose. Which means Washington covers. But I don’t like this game, and if I were asked to bet on it, I’d make like Rosie O’Donnell at a salad bar and avoid it altogether.

Commanders 19  Colts 17

Cincinnati (-3) at Cleveland

In at least two counties and a few bars, this game is still known in Ohio as the "You Don’t Live in Cleveland!” game.

Click here to relive the greatest P.A. Announcement ever

Hard to go against the guys who don’t live in Cleveland right now, although I just heard Ja’Mar Chase is out for 4-6 weeks. Ugh. 

Bengals 27  Browns 23

Bet the Nest

Green Bay at Buffalo (-10.5)

I cannot be convinced to take anyone against Buffalo at this point, unless the spread is at least double digits and the underdog is allowed to schedule Tanya Harding's crow bar guy for a little pregame warm up with Josh Allen.

I’m going to assume the latter was not arranged.

For the second week in a row I am picking a double-digit favorite and calling them a lock. And for the second week in a row I am right.

Bills 37  Packers 20

Fox in the Hen House

Tennessee (-2.5) at Houston

Normally I would take Tennessee on the fact alone that they are 4-0 when they play mediocre-to-slightly-bad teams. Then I remembered that Houston is getting stomped by mediocre and slightly bad teams.

Nothing to contemplate here, except… why is the line only two and a half points???

Oh wait, I know:

It’s a Trap!

Titans 24  Texans 13

🔔 Ding! Ding! Ding! 🔔   Round 8!

Season Total Straight Up Winners: 64-43-1

Season Total Against the Spread:  60-48

Lock of the Week Picks: 5-2

Trap Game of the Week:  2-5