Rough Skiing: The Bird’s Week 13 NFL Picks

Well, what can I say. One month ago I was 13 games above .500 picking against the spread and pushing a 72% clip on accuracy predicting the winners straight up. Life was good, the Droppings were money, and anyone who visited my blog could actually take my advice instead of just read it. 

Then that frenzied November of upsets, setbacks, stunners, and sheer craziness happened. It not only sabotaged the Bird Droppings but I’d be lying if I said it hasn’t gotten into my head.

I was leading the pack in four separate pools and now, four NFL weeks later, I am falling like a blind roofer in all of them.

Visual of The Bird’s November. It started out promising,
then hit a sketchy patch, then it seemed I had the skis
under me again on Thanksgiving…
only to be yanked something fierce last Sunday.

Yep. I'm bobbing in the Evinrude wake of November with my trunks down around my ankles and some of the inside netting still stuck in my ass as I hack a gallon of lake water out my nose. Not fun. My skis are floating around here somewhere and as soon as I get them back it’s time to get serious.

All teams are set to make their stretch run and playoff push, and I am no different.

On to Week 13...  Hit it!

 

Dallas (-4.5) at New Orleans

Generally speaking, at this time of year I tend to lean towards teams who are playing for their playoff lives versus teams who have only mustered five wins by the time I've started my Christmas shopping.

Then again, 'tis the season for Dallas to crap the bed and skid into their annual 8-win finish.

I'll take the Cowboys here but I'll say it again: 'tis the bed crapping season in Big D.

Cowboys 27  Saints 17

Tampa Bay (-10.5) at Atlanta

Bucs. 

Buccaneers 30  Falcons 16

Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati (-2.5)

Cincinnati feels like a team starting to find their stride, even if they are only on a 2 game winning streak. When they win they go all out in doing so. And when they lose they do the same, whether it’s giving up 42 points to the Browns or pissing themselves embarrassingly against the Jets.

Since the Chargers are not quite in Jets territory, and since I think Cincinnati wins this game anyhow, I will definitely bet them to cover the -2.5 points.

Bengals 37  Chargers 31

Arizona (-7.5) at Chicago

Chicago didn’t fire their coach last week despite numerous reports that Black Friday was supposed to have been D-Day for Matt Nagy. This bodes well for only two kinds of people: the Nagy Family and the Arizona Cardinals.

Kyler Murray is back after a month off, and Arizona has won their last six games on the road.  Make it seven.

Cardinals 27  Bears 17

 

Philadelphia (-6.5) at New York Jets

Up until last week’s disappointing loss to New York’s other team, Philadelphia has been a great, crappy team of late. The Jets, after beating Houston, have proven themselves to be a mediocre, crappy team who can beat crappy, crappy teams but nothing more.

Greatness always beats crappy, even when discussing losing teams.

Even if Jalen Hurts can’t go, I have to take the team in green in this one.

Eagles 25  Jets 14

 

Minnesota (-7) at Detroit 

Dalvin Cook’s absence aside, I’m just not sure how many more weeks I can continue to entertain my women’s intuition that “those poor Detroit Lions are due.”

Minnesota is in the throes of a heated playoff race, and games on the schedule against teams that are still 0-fer in December cannot and should not be taken lightly.

As badly as I want Detroit to get off the schneid before coming to Denver in Week 14, I have to bet smartly and go Purple here.

Vikings 27  Lions 17

 

Indianapolis (-8.5) at Houston

I’m no medical expert, but when the hottest team in the league as of last Saturday loses a heartbreaker at home to the Buccaneers last Sunday… a dose of Houston Texans is exactly what the doctor ordered. 

Indy gets well this day.

Colts 34  Texans 23

New York Giants at Miami (-3.5)

I'll take the home team for no good reason other than Miami is full of young kids still playing hard and believing in themselves, while New York is rife with indifference and players who injure themselves warming up. 

The Fins get win number 5 in a row while the G-Men are due for a loss after going L-W-L-W-L-W each of the past 6 weeks.

Dolphins 23  Giants 17

 

Jacksonville at Los Angeles Rams (-12.5)

One team has unexpectedly lost three in a row and now has everything to play for in trying to stay within a game of division leading Arizona and a game ahead of fast-charging San Francisco. They also have the ability to hang points on shitty teams at home. 

The other team is indeed very shitty and on their way to SoFi Stadium as we speak.

The Jacksonville Jaguars heading out west.

Rams 40  Jaguars 17

 

Washington (+3) at Las Vegas

Eight days ago I would have jumped on the born again and suddenly surging Football Team here, going against a slumping 3 loss-streaking team with all the same worries as a monkey on a rock.

Then Vegas went into Dallas and laid the wood to the Cowboys in an impressive showing that I viewed mostly while fading in and out of a tryptophan coma. So now I'm not so sure.

Good thing I just remembered I hate the Raiders. Washington is my pick to cover. Even if they don’t win the game they will keep it close. But I really hope they win. 

Raiders 26  Washington 24

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (+4.5)

In a rare twist in Steelers lore, the Steel Curtain has allowed 41 points in each of their last two games and is now averaging 34 points allowed in five losses and a tie to the winless Lions. Mean Joe Green and Jack Lambert would be rolling over in their graves if they were dead. 

Mean Joe and Jack discuss this year’s
incarnation of the Steelers’ D.

Games between these two almost always go under the total, so expect either a slug fest or a low scoring lopsided affair. So long as Pittsburgh doesn’t allow another 40-plusser I think they cover the 4.5 in a slugfest at home. They might even win.

Steelers 19  Ravens 16

 

San Francisco (-2.5) at Seattle

Seattle is 1-6 over their last 7 games and unless your name is James or Rita Carroll, this has to make you smile. It also appears Russell Wilson’s finger still isn’t exactly working correctly. 

Russell Wilson pointing to all three of
his wide receivers at the same time. 

San Fran got some swagger back last week and I think their collective fire has been re-lit as the stretch run begins and the gold diggers find themselves one game behind the Rams and right in the thick of the NFC wildcard race.

While the Deebo Samuel injury is concerning, San Francisco by a field goal still feels right here.

49’ers 23  Seahawks 20

 

Denver at Kansas City (-9.5)

Since I feel guilty praying for a Broncos win when the world has so many other dire situations like Covid, Cultural Equity, and Britney Spears’ freedom to pray for, I'll just play my reverse jinx card and bet Kansas City wins big here.

Chiefs 34  Broncos 17

 

New England at Buffalo (-3)

Last year Buffalo ran away with the AFC East. Before that, New England ran the division like the Ming Dynasty ran 1400-1700 a.d. China. 

Let’s just say it’s been a long damn time since the AFC East has had a divisional game this meaningful this late in the year.

The Bird watching tv with his parents and sister the last time
the AFC East had two teams this good, this late in the season.

This is the first of two Buffalo-New England battles to come this month, and as hard as it is to go against the Patriots right now, I think I like me some Bills Mafia here.

Monday Night Football on the shores of Lake Erie guarantees the Buffalo crowd an extra 8 hours of pre-gaming, and they should be drunker than Joe Namath at Suzy Kolber’s Christmas party by the time those asshats from Beantown take the field. I, for one, deem this significant.

Going with Buffalo. 

Bills 37  Patriots 30

 

Oops… I Did It Again. You’ve been Bird Dropped.

Last Week Straight Up Winners: 6-9

Current Season Total Straight Up Winners: 109-71

Last Week Against the Spread: 4-11

Current Season Total Against the Spread:  89-89-2