Eighteen weeks and two playoff rounds are in the books. If you haven't been enlightened by any of my ramblings by now, then I can only hope you have at least been slightly entertained.
Either way, enlightened or amused, at 88 games above .500 and a +19 overall against the spread, I'm forging through these playoffs with all the confidence of Bill Belichick poring over the hoodie rack at a Goodwill. We’re 7-3 straight up here at Bird Droppings Inc. this postseason, and 5-5 against the line. Let’s go.
My picks for Sunday’s games are below, but first a bulleted recount of last weekend’s insanity, as analyzed from a barstool by yours truly:
- I texted a good buddy who happens to be a Bengals die hard (yes, one exists) just before Saturday’s Cincy-Tennessee game and it went something like this: Me- “You guys got a chance?” Him- “We just gotta get out in front and let Tannehill turn it over.” Lol. Someone get this guy his own pick’em blog! Tannehill threw an INT on Tennessee’s very first play of the game, another on the first play of the 2nd half, and a third with under a minute left in a tied game which ultimately was his team’s final offensive play. Wow. What a trifecta of self-sabotage. Now if Mahomes can just do the same I think the Bengals have a fighter’s chance this Sunday.
- Green Bay scored a touchdown on their opening drive. San Francisco didn’t score an offensive touchdown the entire game. Still, they found their way to the NFC Championship Game. Garoppolo beat Rodgers. At Lambeau. Some things just start feeling like destiny once the playoffs start rolling, don’t they? (Oh. And by destiny I mean Green Bay’s earlier-than-expected exit… which lead to Nathaniel Hackett’s hiring in Denver… which leads to……) Well, that’s for another conversation.
- Cam Akers fumbled at the 1 yard line just before halftime as LA was getting ready to punch it in and take a seemingly insurmountable 27-3 lead at the break in Tampa. Instead, it remained 20-3. When Akers fumbled again late in the 4th, Tampa’s comeback was complete. Matthew Stafford ultimately saved his running back from becoming the most hated man in Hollywood not named Harvey Weinstein, but wow, other than Ryan Tannehill 24 hrs earlier, I hadn’t seen one man almost single-handedly destroy a team’s chances of winning since Vic Fangio.
- Kansas City vs. Buffalo. There’s really nothing that can be said here, other than “those poor Bills fans.” Buffalo continues their rich tradition of finding ways to lose spectacularly, while the Chiefs continue to prove that a team can go 60 yards in :13 seconds so long as you have a guy they call “Cheetah” running with the ball. Seriously. They made John Elway’s “The Drive” look like a seven-part series of slow moving commentary on the Crimean War. Kansas City plays “fast” in a way that is reshaping the NFL the same way Steph Curry’s Warriors have reshaped the NBA. All we can do is watch, marvel, and try not to blink.
- Speaking of… does anyone else find it funny that Patrick Mahomes was able to lead his team 50 yards on two plays in :13 seconds, yet Dak Prescott took :14 seconds on the final play just to slide?
- Lastly, the Overtime Rules. C‘Mon, guys. It’s not that hard. My solution: stop with all this sudden death, first-score-wins nonsense. It’s simple: play another period. Period. Whoever is ahead when the clock hits 0:00 is the winner. And in the playoffs if the score is still tied, well, throw another shrimp on the barbie! Add another OT until it’s resolved. If the NBA can figure this much out, then surely the NFL can. At the very, very least: allow both teams a possession, regardless of whether Team 1 scores a touchdown or not. Josh Allen won that game for Buffalo two times Sunday night. It’s a shame we didn’t get to see him try for a third.
Now then. On to the picks!
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| Line: Chiefs favored by 7 1/2 |
I’m not sure Cincinnati can keep pace with KC the way Buffalo did, but the fact that Joe Burrow was sacked 9 times last week, pressured another 25 times, and STILL put up 350 yards passing and got the win is not something to be taken lightly. This kid is a baller. Also, his offensive line leaks like a sieve.
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| Burrow & Mixon in the Bengals backfield the moment the ball is snapped. |
I don’t know how any team can get their quarterback killed as often as Cincinnati does, and expect to keep winning road games in January. Especially when the offensive game plan calls for dropping your QB back to pass all the time.
If we don’t get some kind of Joe Mixon sighting soon, or unless the Bengals get creative with rolling Jackpot Joe out of the pocket and/or setting up some quick screens, this game will get away from them quicker than you can say “T.J. Houshmandzedah.” Mahomes isn’t going to turn the ball over 3 times the way Tannehill did last week either.
Kansas City has had their scare. They survived. They’re 9-2 Against the Spread this season at home, and by my sophomore-level math, they’ve won those games by an average of 10 points per victory. Oh, and since the Bengals just beat them 4 weeks ago, they’ll be extra vigilant and on alert so as to not allow any 3rd & 27 conversions that lead to upsets this time.
Look. I’m a Bengals fan this weekend. We all are where I come from. Dress me in orange and watch me do the Ickey Shuffle while eating Cincinnati Skyline chili. But the bettor in me knows how this will end. Kansas City is my pick. For the love of Kenny Anderson, I hope I’m wrong.
Chiefs 34 Bengals 24
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| Line: Rams favored by 3 1/2 |
I am a law of averages guy. It’s in my nature and always has been. I will walk by a roulette table that has hit on Black six spins in a row and immediately plop down on Red.
San Francisco has won 6 straight games against the Rams, and for a guy like me that means more than all of the X’s and O’s we could be dissecting here. It means I feel all but guaranteed there won’t be a 7th. This, my friends, is sound gambling advice.
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| It’s simple: the Rams are due to hit here. |
Now, I do have some other thoughts designed at validating this pick beyond my belief that things always tend to balance themselves out.
Matthew Stafford is having a helluva year. Sure. We could say that about anybody who moved out of Detroit and relocated anywhere else but Kabul. But I mean, he is having a hell of a year. Feels like his moment is here. He has the best WR in the game, a defense that is peaking at the absolute right time, and sources tell me the sun-bleached people of Southern Cal have taken conscious measures to make sure SoFi Field actually has Rams fans in attendance this time.
Meanwhile San Fran also seems “due” for a return to balance. They’ve gone 19 straight games without allowing a 300yd passer and in today’s air-friendly NFL that is just absurd. If such a run of good fortune is going to end, it’s going to be against the most prolific QB-WR passing tandem the league has seen, and it’s going to happen now.
Have I mentioned that if Green Bay didn’t field a special teams unit full of monkeys and imbeciles last Saturday, we wouldn’t even be having this conversation? Blah.
Will the Rams lose three times in the same season to these guys? Not a chance. Well, a 50/50 one I suppose if you want to get technical. But not by my logic.
L.A. it is.
Rams 31 49’ers 27
See y’all in two weeks for the Super Bowl!
PS — This blog should have been over :13 seconds ago. But the Chiefs had something to say about that.
Playoffs Straight Up Winners: 7-3
Playoffs Against the Spread: 5-5
Season Total Straight Up Winners: 188-100
Season Total Against the Spread: 152-133-3
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