No Apologies: The Bird’s Week 4 NFL Picks

And just like that we’re at the quarter pole.

I went 10-6 straight up last week with a 9-7 ATS, which still classifies as “winning,” even if felt like an 11-10 march through quicksand. Personally, I blame the Bills and Chiefs for pretty much screwing all of us -including themselves- by not making good on what seemed like sure-fire spreads. Buttholes.

Yet despite falling right into it, I knew that KC line was a trap! 

As for the Broncos…

It’s becoming clearer just exactly what Russ
means when he says, “Let’s ride.”

I had to defend myself to several people last weekend for picking Denver, but I felt that one from the gut and not the heart. And let’s just say Jimmy G is who I thought he was.

Now. On the “sexy scale,” did Denver escape Sunday night looking like they chased a fart through a bucket of nails? Sure, you could say that.

But it also looked like the #1 and #2 defenses in the league to me; each had hella-games, and you should never apologize for getting a win like that against a team that should have been in last year’s Super Bowl.

As far as the picks go, this prognosticator doesn’t apologize for anything either. Um, except maybe for making fun of Brits again in my annual NFL London pick.

Let’s have a bit of the Week 4, ol’ chaps! Chip chip!

A Bird’s Eye View (picks and analysis)

Minnesota (-2.5) at New Orleans 

In a rare twist to the international matchup, the NFL sends a game to London that for once doesn’t include the Jaguars, Raiders or Lions. This can only be construed as our deepest American condolences for the Queen's passing.

Then again, having binged Vikings and The Last Kingdom all through the pandemic, I can see how sending over a team named after the Great Heathen Army subtly still counts as an eff-you to the crown. Well done, Roger Goodell. Well done.

This game is always hard to pick. It’s basically two teams who have jet lag in a place they don’t want to be, mucking it up in a stinky dark soccer stadium in front of a crowd singing pub songs and waving colorful scarves.

Dalvin Cook's injury is concerning, but when in doubt always trust in Jameis Winston to not take care of the football. Or, if it comes down to it, trust in Andy Dalton to take care of it but do nothing with it. Minnesota wins by more than 2.

The Great Heathen Army 24   Saints 16

LA Chargers (-5.5) at Houston

What the hell happened to the Chargers? One minute they are an offensive juggernaut playing with purpose and confidence, and the next minute they're suffering from NTPTSD (Norv Turner Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder). I mean, I know J-Herb's ribs were cracked and all, but seriously... did Norv take back over last Sunday?

I suspect they are favored here because even a one-armed Justin Herbert is better than a two-armed Davis Mills. That, and Houston just lost to the worst offense the NFL has seen since Tim Tebow was trying to make the single wing cool again.

Chargers 23  Texans 13

Not sure Houston’s offense could keep up
even if they were playing in the 1947 Cotton Bowl.

Chicago at New York Giants (-3)

The New York Giants disappointed last week.

The Bird watches in disgust as the Giants
bring down his pick’em stats.

I’m not sure how to pick these guys to cover 3 points other than to remind myself they are playing the Chicago Bears, who have an offense only the CU Buffs could be jealous of.

Giants 16  Bears 9

Seattle (+5) at Detroit

Yet again, Detroit managed to take certain victory and turn it into a gigantic pile of “we’ve been a bunch of losers ever since Bobby Layne retired.” Fortunately, they play the Geno Smth Seahawks this week. Unfortunately, we just can’t trust this organization to cover such a large number. 

Detroit’s quarterback the last time the Lions were
favored by this many points. I believe they 
beat the Chicago Cardinals 8-0.

Lions 24  Seahawks 20

Jacksonville at Philadelphia (-6.5)

Jacksonville has surprised me, and this does feel like a huge spread between two teams with a combined 5-1 record and who both beat the snot out of their opponents seven days ago.

Still, like I said last week: I am riding the Eagles and Jalen Hurts until I see a reason not to. Philly by a touch.

Eagles 31  Jaguars 24

New York Jets at Pittsburgh (-3)

On one hand, I hate the idea of Pittsburgh outscoring anyone by more than 3 points. On the other hand (and as a general rule in life) I always eschew betting on teams led by a 35 year old Joe Flacco (or a rookie QB on the road, should Zach Wilson finally grace us with his presence).

Steelers 20  Jets 16

Tennessee (+3.5) at Indianapolis 

If the same Indy team that round-housed the Chiefs and the same Titans team that laid eggs in Week 1 & 2 show up for this game, I like the Colts to cover and win here. 

And if my Aunt had a penis she would be my Uncle.

Tennessee got their Derek Henry fix going again last Sunday and they have a thuggish manor about them that the finesse Chiefs do not. Indy will find it was better to trade play-action with KC than it will be to trade body blows with Tennessee. I like the visitors getting points here as the underdog. If Henry gets going, they might even win.

Titans 20  Colts 17

Washington at Dallas (-3)

Just when you think the Cowboys are done, they plug in some guy named Cooper Rush, stagger back up, and fight like warriors.  

Just when you think the Commanders are done, they are done.

Cowboys 19  Commanders 13

Buffalo at Baltimore (+3.5)

To be honest, I can't tell if I'm more impressed by the Ravens or the Bills.

I'd like to say the Bills will rebound and avoid falling to 2-2, but Lamar Jackson is quite literally playing as if Michael Vick and Warren Moon had a love child 25 years ago and named him Lamar.

I’ll take Buffalo to win, but I like the Ravens to cover as home dogs here. 

Bills 28  Ravens 25

Arizona (+1.5) at Carolina

This is a tough call. Christian McCaffrey is a man amongst slightly lesser men and can single handedly keep the Panthers in the game. On the other hand, Baker Mayfield does really stupid shit at least twice a game and has the NFL’s lowest QBR.

I think the Cardinals beat the spread.

Cardinals 26  Panthers 23

Denver at Las Vegas (-2.5)

I’ll admit I thought that the Raiders were finally due for some resurgence back when Al Davis passed away. Get some newer, younger blood in there, move the team to Sin City, build a ginormous stadium, and hire a young buck from the coaching tree of the greatest patriarch and asswipe that ever walked a sideline.

Well, if you’re out there Al, please accept my apology. You guys suck no matter who is in charge, and in any city.

That said, I am currently running a thin string of eeking out Denver picks and my gut tells me the Raiders will play with a desperate urgency that Denver will struggle to match. Road divisional games are tough, and the offense in Denver has been less DangerRuss and more DangerMouse. So I’m reluctant to bet on my team here. 

Picking the Raiders always requires me to delouse and shower immediately after writing this blog and normally I don’t have time for that. Ugh. Cancel my afternoon calls.

Raiders 27  Broncos 24

New England at Green Bay (-9.5)

Mac Jones is out for a couple of weeks with the dreaded Shannon Sharpe's Disease— I mean, "high ankle sprain”—and I don't see any way that a non-cheating Belichick team can stay within 10 points on the road at Lambeau with a backup quarterback who throws more dirtbags than the bouncer at a Colfax Hooters.

Packers 34  Patriots 17

Kansas City (+1) at Tampa Bay

Stay away from this game.

You’ve got two proud teams both destined for the Super Bowl (according to most everyone outside of Buffalo) coming off of bad losses. Hurricane Ian won the week and there are too many other oddball factors to consider.

I guess for what feels like a field goal game that’s probably going to be played on a rain-soaked field somewhere in middle Florida, give me a Kansas City team who didn’t have to spend their prep week boarding windows in a Cat 5.

Chiefs 24  Buccaneers 23

LA Rams (+1.5) at San Francisco

Last week I correctly leaned on Jimmy Garoppolo to be extremely rusty (if you want to call it that), having not seen any game action since last January’s NFC Championship. I suspect this week will be similar, as it is Jimmy’s second preseason game essentially.

But what really turned last Sunday’s game from dog poo into steaming pile of dog poo for Jimmy, was when his left tackle Trent Williams went down. From that point on, the Denver defense drummed up memories of the Fearsome Foursome.

…not really.

LA no longer has Deacon Jones, Merlin Olson, Rosie Grier, and the other guy, but they do have Aaron Donald. I like the Rams here, not only as underdogs, but to win outright.

Rams 28  49’ers 20

Bet the Nest  (Lock of the week)

Miami at Cincinnati (-3)

Despite being on record that I don't think they will make the playoffs, I can't stop picking the Bengals. It's like I have this horrible, diseased, ugly tiger-striped monkey on my back. Well I'm not gonna beat my monkey this week and neither are the Dolphins.

Tua Tagovailoa's health is a question here, so is Jaylen Waddle’s. Last week their defense was on the field for 90 (ninety!) plays in a heat index 105° game, and now they fly out of the eye of a hurricane on a short week to play the AFC Champs?

This feels like all Bengals to me.

Bengals 34  Dolphins 20

Fox in the Hen House  (Trap game of the week)

Cleveland (-1.5) at Atlanta 

Cleveland should really be 3-0. Atlanta could really be 0-3.

I have no Cleveland Browns on my fantasy team and I play the guy in my league who has Nick Chubb. Conversely, I have two Atlanta Falcons on my roster so I can almost assuredly count on them to suck.

Why Cleveland and their NFL’s best rushing attack is favored by nary a point against an uninspired Falcons team ranked 17th against the run is beyond me.

Unless… it’s a trap?

I’m feeling good about the Browns this week.
Why do I feel like this could be me?

Browns 24  Falcons 17

Thanks for having some droppings with your tea and crumpets! Jimmy likes the Bird Droppings!

Season Total Straight Up Winners: 28-19-1

Season Total Against the Spread:  24-24

Lock of the Week Picks: 1-2

Trap Game of the Week:  1-2