Unnecessary Unnecessary Roughness: The Bird’s Week 6 NFL Picks

Warning: this blog was just flagged for roughing the passer.

C'mon, NFL. What are we doing here? Ugh.

With my left eye still twitching from witnessing Grady Jarrett and Chris Jones getting completely screwed out of key sacks last weekend, all I can really do is move on and pray the NFL figures this out. Kinda like when they realized after the 2019 season that they really shouldn’t be proactively looking for holding on every single play.

Some things truly don’t need over-legislating. And even more things than that can (and should be) trusted simply to common sense and passing the “eye test.”

👆These were penalties…??? 👇

I know people who hug more aggressively.

For shame, for shame. Let’s move on.

Last week I was a pedestrian 9-7 Against the Spread, but a respectable 11-5 picking the straight up winners. As for Week 6... I've busted out my pleather pants and I’m going all Mad Max again. Of the 14 games, I like 9 road teams against the spread.

Note: mercifully, the Lions, Titans, Raiders and Texans are all taking the week off, so no one has to worry about seeing any of that.

Here we go!

A Bird’s Eye View

Washington at Chicago (+1)

Just when I thought the duck-billed platypus and Nathaniel Hackett were the only mammals who laid eggs, the NFL schedule maker follows up that Broncos-Colts disaster with this beauty.

I suppose if given the choice between picking this game and taking a swift kick to the weiner, I'd say something lacking conviction like, "I'll take the Bears instead of getting kicked in the junk, please." 

Bears 22  Commanders 20

Minnesota (-3.5) at Miami

I was thinking back on the Dolphins' 40-17 debacle last Sunday in East Rutherford— another QB concussed, Tyreek Hill injured, losing by 20+ to the Jets, etc.— hoping to find any sliver of light to shine on Miami’s football team.

Looking. Looking... Man. It's darker than Teddy Bridgewater’s butthole in here.

If the Dolphins had either: A) a fully healthy Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback or B) a fully healthy quarterback besides Tua Tagovailoa but not named Skylar Thompson starting, I'd take them plus the points. Since it is likely they will not have either, I give the edge to Minnesota.

Vikings 23  Dolphins 17

New England (+3.5) at Cleveland

A few weeks ago it would have been easy to pick Cleveland here. But... they are the Browns. 

So long as I get to add 3 1/2 points to New England's score, I’ll bet the road dawgs. Cleveland may win but New England covers.

Browns 20  Patriots 17

San Francisco (-5.5) at Atlanta 

I really have no reason to go against San Fran's defense at this point, any more than I really have no reason to go with Atlanta's offense. Welp, this pick just made itself.

49'ers 28  Falcons 17

Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh (+8.5)

Two clashes of gambler's fallacy are at odds here:

1. Tampa has proved more than once they should never be counted on to cover any spread bigger than 7 points.
2. Pittsburgh proved last week that, even when given 14 points, they are likely to still go out and lose by 3x that amount.

Sigh.

I hate Sophie's Choice, but I suppose if a Nazi stuck his Luger in my face and demanded I choose… I would take Pittsburgh to cover at home (even with a rookie QB making his second ever start) because, well, Tampa has bombed as heavy faves way too many times in the last two seasons. That, and this is not Buffalo in Buffalo. Which should feel a lot more accommodating for the Steel men.

Buccaneers 21  Steelers 19

Cincinnati (-1.5) at New Orleans

I keep picking Cincinnati’s games the same way Michele de Nostredame used to write Leś Prophéties from his ink and quill desk in 1673 France.

The Bird has been Nostradamus-like this season 
whilst predicting Cincinnati’s future. 

Why stop now?

Bengals 30  Saints 27

Baltimore (-5.5) at New York Giants

New York seems to have found their bygone form of run-the-ball, smash mouth football. Or, at the very least, they have found a way to beat up on teams that lose to schlubs like the Lions or have psychedelic quarterbacks who are completely disinterested in playing games in Limeytown.

Since Baltimore is neither of these things, this game should be a true test of just how solid the Giants are.

The two best running backs in the NFL will be on display here, and I think the Ravens’ QB is the better of the two. I don't see New York keeping up with Lamar Jackson to be honest.

Ravens 26  G-Men 19

Jacksonville (+1.5) at Indianapolis

Other than losing to a bunch of resiliency-proof turds like the Houston Texans, I didn't see Jacksonville do anything overly stupid last week. Meanwhile Indianapolis lucked out by beating an increasingly incapable Denver team in extra innings.

Jaguars 26  Colts 23

New York Jets at Green Bay (-7)

I don’t wear a foam cheddar wedge on my head on Sundays, so I feel like I can be honest with you about the Packers.

I give them benefit of the doubt for being better than their record shows, even though it's hard to ignore the fact that they have struggled mightily against teams who start young, crappy quarterbacks but have super hero running backs.

Conversely, the Jets are hot at 3-2, have a young, crappy quarterback, and a running back who went off for 200 yds last week. Yet I can't seem to convince myself that they are really all that good.

I’m hesitant, but I like the Pack to finally put together four full quarters of quality football this week.

Packers 31  Jets 23

Arizona (-3) at Seattle

This week I trust Kyler Murray won’t slide until after he’s reached the line to gain. And at some point Geno Smith will stop looking like Warren Moon… right? 

Cardinals 24  Seahawks 17

Buffalo (-2.5) at Kansas City

I’m not even gonna screw this one up by saying anything. Let’s just all enjoy the AFC Championship.

Bills 34  Chiefs 31

Dallas (+6.5) at Philadelphia

It's quite possible that I have underestimated the entire NFC East. Well, the three quarters of it that doesn’t play in our nation's capital, at least.

The Eagles showed they are beatable last week while the Cowboys continue to flex some serious defensive muscles. 

This has “field goal game” written all over it which means I’m taking the points. TBH, I like the Cowboys to pull the upset and with that the ’72 Dolphins can pop another cork. 

Cowboys 23  Eagles 20

Bet the Nest

Carolina at LA Rams (-10)

When picking any matchup other than a Nebraska Cornhusker non-conference game against Arkansas-Little Rock Technical College, it’s never wise to bet the team laying double-digit points and call them a lock.

But I feel like the Rams need to make a statement after being snuffed out like a Jeff Probst Survivor torch each of the past two weeks. If they can't do it at home against a 1-4 team who just fired their head coach and replaced their starting quarterback with the ever-dangerous PJ Walker, then it’s just time to stick a fork in LA.

They’ve lost two in a row. They’re desperate. They have to roll here. I say they will.

Rams 34  Panthers 13

Fox in the Hen House

Denver at LA Chargers (-4.5)

For the life of me, I can't figure out why the Chargers are only giving 4 1/2 points to a team who pretty much averages 9 points per game and displays some form of blatant stupidity every single week. Like, I don't know, constantly throwing from the shotgun inside the 5 yd line, throwing from the shotgun on 4th & 1 inside the 5 yd line, and then throwing from the shotgun on 4th & 1 inside the 5 yd line to the guy in triple coverage instead of the wide open guy screaming like a banshee for the ball.

For the first time since 1997, I did some math: LA is averaging 26 points per game, including 32 ppg in their last two. Denver is scoring points at the same pace as the Houston Astros.

Why is this only a 4 1/2 point spread? Whyyyy?

Me, thinking I have this
Chargers pick in the bag?

Looks too good to be true but I’m falling for it. Best case scenario— maybe my reverse jinx powers will equate to Denver turning their season around (insert hysterical laughter here.)

Chargers 23  Broncos 13

You've been Bird Dropped! And flags have been thrown. Ridiculous15 yard penalty coming up.

Season Total Straight Up Winners: 51-28-1

Season Total Against the Spread:  45-35

Lock of the Week Picks: 3-2

Trap Game of the Week:  2-3

Get. Out! The Bird's Week 2 NFL Picks

Welp. Week 1 is officially in the books!

Record-wise it wasn’t the best of weeks, but considering some really promising teams looked awful (Green Bay, Tennessee) and some really awful teams looked promising (Houston, Cincinnati), one can’t complain too much about coming out of Week 1 in the black.

Some intriguing teams looked even more intriguing after Week 1 (Arizona, Dallas, both LA’s), while others looked absolutely less intriguing after Week 1 (Minnesota, Indianapolis, Atlanta). And then there were a few teams who looked to be exactly what we expected (Tampa Bay, Kansas City, San Francisco).

Joe Burrow and Carson Wentz appear to be healthy again, Jerry Jeudy and Ryan Fitzpatrick sadly saw their names added to the injured reserve, and for the first time in three weeks no Baltimore running backs tore their ACL.  Meanwhile Russell Wilson looked like the old Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers looked nothing like the old Aaron Rodgers, And Teddy Bridgewater looked like Daniel Kaluuya from the movie Get Out!

Doppelganger jokes aside, Teddy B. looked very sharp in his Broncos debut.

Uncanny resemblances notwithstanding, Bronco fans have to be excited after watching Teddy Two-Gloves last Sunday. His numbers weren’t jaw-dropping, but the way in which he played was about as close to perfection as we’ve seen in these parts in a very long time.  TB5 spread the ball around to 9 different receivers, delivered with accuracy, and even launched a couple of long bombs… which we were told he was incapable of doing. Perhaps best of all, on several occasions #5 extended the play, and he was clutch on multiple 3rd and 4th down conversions.  It was only one week, but…

This is our guy?  Get out!

Time to build on last week’s momentum and keep picking winners.  On to Week 2!

 

New York Giants (+3.5) at Washington

New York looked stifled at best last week in what essentially was a bed crapper against Denver at home. Not to be outdone in matters of crapping themselves though, Washington wants everyone to know that they are perfectly adept at making a mess of things too:

Click here to see: shit happens!

Yep. Not only did starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick land on the IR with a subluxation of his hip, but the upper level sewage line started raining down on the Football Team’s dearly beloved shortly after.  Honestly, I'm not sure which was the added insult.

So.  Even though Daniel Jones continues to show he’s good for at least one critical fumble per game, he somehow has managed to go 4-0 against the ‘Skins/Football Team while being 3-18 against everyone else. I could suggest here that he owns Washington, but really I just can't shake the feeling that dislocated hips and shitters leaking down onto your fan base are two unmistakable signs that this is not going to be your year. Sorry, Football Team.

I’ll bet the G-Men to keep it within the spread, if not win altogether. 

 

Denver at Jacksonville (+6)

As optimistic as I felt last Sunday night when Melvin Gordon ripped off that 70 yarder late in the 4th to officially make it a blowout, I remain steadfastly pessimistic when it comes to 11am games on the east coast for my Donkeys. It’s just the way it goes and always has for this team. 

I’ll predict an ugly win for Denver, but a final score closer than six points makes Jacksonville my pick against the spread. Something in the neighborhood of 17-12 and a related spike in my blood pressure seem very plausible here.  Almost predictable. 

 

Houston (+13) at Cleveland

Did everyone see the new and improved Browns last week? No, I’m not talking about the extra chutzpah and savvy they brought to KC for 52 minutes of a 60 minute game in which a botched snap by the punter -on their only punt of the game!- may have been all that kept them from notching last weekend’s biggest upset. 

I’m talking about Cleveland’s “new uniforms” of course! That’s right. The Brownies unveiled newer and sleeker unis that the organization says “pay tribute” to the club’s history in this, their 75th anniversary season. 

You probably didn’t notice because they generally look just like the previous 75 years of Browns uniforms. Gotta hand it to them though. Cleveland’s idea of “Before & After” is inspiringly similar to my dieting “successes”:

Cleveland's new uniforms (R) as compared to their old ones (L).

 

Anyhow. Another thing that hasn’t changed: unless it’s 1946 or Jim Brown is toting the rock, never ever EVER bet on Cleveland to cover a spread this big. Houston is the pick.

 

Buffalo (-3) at Miami

Coming off their big road win to start the season, I fully expect all 900 of Miami's fans —plus that big teal tarp they hide the upper level seats under— to be in attendance for this one.

This might have been a tougher game for me to pick had Buffalo held serve and won last week, but since the Bills lost and now see their season of high hopes staring ominously at an 0-2 start, I fully expect them to circle the wagons.  Buffalo wins and covers. 

 

New England at New York Jets (+6)

I simply cannot envision a world in which the Patriots are 0-2 and staring up from the basement in their division. Clearly, Bill Belichick is no longer cheating hard enough.

A sort of constitutional vibe and a quarter century of recent AFC East history almost demands a Patriots win this Sunday. Newly born babies, nuns, nurses, first responders, war heroes, Betty White, and all else that is good and pure in this world surely deserve the opposite. This is too much.

I feel dirty, but I’m picking the Pats here to win and cov— Wait! Wait…

I almost broke one of my own cardinal rules:  never bet on a rookie QB on the road.  New England may still cheat and win but I’ll take the Jets to cover.

Cincinnati at Chicago (-2.5)

People who switch to Geico are happy. How happy, Jimmy? Happier than Andy Dalton that this game isn’t being played in Cincinnati.

Two entire cities are convinced ol’ Andy isn’t a proper answer for NFL quarterback, even though the poor sap is being completely shackled by play calling that’s more conservative than an Amish fashion show.

 

Top: Chicago's play calling.

Bottom: The rest of the league.

Chicago’s gonna win this game, probably because of something Justin Fields does, but we'll call it Dalton’s Revenge either way.  Take the Bears, minus the points.

 

San Francisco (-3) at Philadelphia

I did not see that coming last week from the Eagles. That being said and with all due respect, San Francisco has better things to do than spend their first two weekends of fall in Detroit and Philly.

The Niners make short work of this one.

 

New Orleans at Carolina (+3.5)

Jameis Winston headed into this season as the only player in NFL history to throw 30 TD & 30 INT in the same season, then in Week 1 promptly became the first player to ever toss 5 touchdowns in a game while throwing for less than 150 yards.

I am not a statistician, but I am an American voter and taxpayer, so I know all about how fuzzy math works. Obviously Winston is poised to throw 5 interceptions this week just to make everything right in the world. 

Carolina covers as home underdogs. In fact I think they win the game straight up. 

LA Rams (-3.5) at Indianapolis

Matthew Stafford showed last Sunday that waking up on game day to play quarterback in LA and not Detroit is akin to Robert Downey Jr. swapping a life of hand guns, heroin and cocaine for being Tony Stark instead.  Everything’s coming up Matty!

 

Left: Stafford's time in Detroit.    Right: Stafford's arrival in L.A.

 

The Rams looked damn potent in the air last week and it was evident from all of the smiles; from the owner, to the fans, to that blonde NBC mistakenly called Mrs. Stafford, to the players themselves, and right down to Sean McVay who skipped up and down the sidelines with childish glee all game: LA has found their Iron Man. 

I’m picking them here as a team with tons of rise on the horizon.

Las Vegas (+6.5) at Pittsburgh

Last Monday night’s Raider victory was one of the more implausible finishes to a game I’ve seen in a long time. The fact that they survived every attempt made to “Raider it up” is a good omen I suppose. I mean, besides somehow not scoring after having a 1st and Goal from the 1-foot line, they then won on a TD lob later in OT because no one could find the kicker after Gruden had called timeout to set up a game winning field goal.  Only the Raiders.

I learned long ago that good omens are not to be ignored however, and I feel a strong follow up is looming.

Likewise, Pittsburgh shocked most of the country last weekend with an impressive road win against a team many have picked to make a Super Bowl run this year. A natural let down is brewing in this scenario, I feel.  The Raiders keep this one closer than a touchdown, and I may even pick them to win it outright in an upset.

 

Minnesota at Arizona (-3.5)

When I drafted Kyler Murray two weeks ago to be the stalwart leader of my Fantasy Football team, I was almost positive I had just jinxed him into a sophomore slump of epic proportions. It’s just the way I roll.  Then the little guy accounted for 5 TDs and shredded Tennessee like a stack of old tax returns. It was glorious!

I’m riding the K Train down every track I can until I see a reason not to.  Take the Red Birds minus the points this Sunday.

Tennessee (+6.5) at Seattle

When I drafted Julio Jones two weeks ago to be the lead wide receiver of my Fantasy Football team, I was almost positive I had just jinxed him into a…

Well, I knew I was screwing with someone’s season by drafting them. 

The Titans are a much better team than they showed last weekend, and they’ll need more than three catches for 29 yards from Julio this Sunday to prove so. I’m always weary of picking against Seattle at home, but I’ll give a slight lean to Tennessee here, getting six and a half. 

 

Atlanta (+12.5) at Tampa Bay

In my "Matchup that I gave 90 seconds of thought to before sending out my picks for the week" pick, I think I'll play the 13-point underdogs simply because divisional games are usually tightly contested. Atlanta covers.  

And somewhere Flava Flav bellows, “Cant truss it!” Oh well. 

Dallas at LA Chargers (-3)

This will feel like a home game to the Cowboys, as the Chargers continue to run weekly Amber Alerts looking for fans throughout the various Southern Cali municipalities they have called home. I fully expect a 70-30 crowd in favor of the ‘Boys inside SoFi Stadium. 

That being said, none of those fans play cornerback and Dallas just gave up 400 yards passing in their opener (all be it to Tom Brady), and now face a quarterback who launches as freely as Don Rickles at a Dean Martin Celebrity Roast. Translation: Justin Herbert is primed for a huge day.

The Chargers win this shootout and cover the three points.

 

Kansas City (-3.5) at Baltimore

This shapes up to be a very good game with humongous playoff implications even though it is only Week 2. The Chiefs looked like a champion prize fighter doing all they could to weather the storm of a younger challenger last week, and for about 9 rounds Cleveland had them up against the ropes. 

Baltimore, meanwhile, looked like an even younger and badder challenger than Cleveland until they tired in the last round and left their jaw exposed.

Sigh. Baltimore will be at home and playing desperate, yet the gambler's fallacy says "keep taking Kansas City until they stop throwing touchdowns on every sixth play.” 

I’ll take the Chiefs, minus the points, to win and cover. But I'll admit I'm not confident in it.

 

Detroit at Green Bay (-12.5)

I predicted last week that Detroit would find a way to only lose “sort of” badly to San Francisco and that the real ass kicking would come in Week 2 at the hands of the Packers. 

That of course was before Green Bay made Jameis Winston look like Tecmo Bowl Warren Moon, while looking every bit themselves like a team that spent their entire off season marinating in drama and distraction. Damn they were awful. But they are still not Detroit awful. 

 

Covering 12+ points is asking a lot of a team that just got their asses whooped 38-3 to a squad forced to play their "home game" 4 states over because of a hurricane.  Still, something tells me Green Bay will do what Green Bay does, and Detroit will do what Detroit does.  Packers roll.

Until next week, my friends.  You’ve been Bird Dropped.

Last Week Straight Up Winners: 10-6

Current Season Total Straight Up Winners: 10-6

Last Week Against the Spread: 9-6-1

Current Season Total Against the Spread:  9-6-1