Prayer Candles, Up! The Bird’s Week 9 Picks

Before we get started, prayers up for an NFL Legend on this day. Father (hang) Time finally caught up to the only punter ever drafted in the 1st Round, and the only full-time one to be enshrined in the Hall of Fame. I remember him vividly from the days of my youth while attending Raider-hating summer camps my parents put me through. 

Rest In Peace, Ray Guy. I don’t say this about many Raiders, but you sir were one of my faves.

The best ever.

Now then, the Week 9 Bird Droppings. But first, a look back on Week 8:

In the shadows of Wembley Stadium, the Broncos avoided relegation last weekend, leaving such demotions for those losers from Norwich City. And Matt Ryan.

Thank God I lit that prayer candle.

It's working!

So while I’m still thinking I’d rather watch the World Cup at this point, our heroes in Orange get a much-needed win and are no worse off than such preseason hopefuls as the Packers, Bucs or the defending champ Rams.

If only we were in the NFC South, we’d be talking about a division title.

Speaking of the NFC South…

And now, a 60-second spout-off of all the stupid things that we witnessed in Week 8. *deep inhale*… The Falcons and Panthers managed the last few minutes of regulation and OT like a couple of bumbling idiots that literally almost resulted in a 4-way tie for first place in the South, where 3-5 records rule the day… Justin Fields is the latest bonehead player to not understand that an opposing player with the ball must be touched in order to be down… and kudos to Micah Parsons on the same play for getting up and running for a touchdown; because there are an equal amount of morons in pads who would have fallen on that fumble and laid there planning their sideline celebration, having never dawned on them that they weren’t down… Taunting in the NFL (eye rolls, please). In a sport where grown men hit, tackle, and crush each other while inflicting physical pain, it’s 15 yards and a potential ejection for hurting someone’s feelings… Speaking of hurt feelings: I see you, Raiders… Did anyone else see the ref in Seattle call a penalty on the “Seattle Mariners?” I don’t know what the hell is going on anymore, but I’m pretty sure Lou Piniella was ready to argue it… And finally, in a league where “young QBs” are making Tim Tebow look like Joe Montana at an alarming rate (Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, Davis Mills, Kenny Pickett, Malik Willis, PJ Walker, Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence, and Indianapolis’s very own Sam Ehlinger), Matt Ryan is seriously not even suited up on the sidelines as a backup option for the latter? We all know he got “benched” so Jim Irsay could get his jollies with his new Longhorn signal caller, but dude isn’t even in uniform now??

All of a sudden I hear The Pointer Sisters for some reason. 

Click this link to see: Fields Jumps Parsons

The Bird had a bounce-back weekend last week, and both the straight up picks and the picks against the spread are well in the black. Let’s keep it going…

(PS- several teams are on their bye this week, including the Broncos, who’s offense will be resting from that 21-pt outburst that surely drained them of all their powers.)

Let us make like Justin Fields and jump (for my love) into Week 9:

Bird’s Eye View 

Minnesota at Washington (+3.5)

Taylor Heinicke is one of the few “young QBs” I did not mention in my rant above, mainly because he is not playing like a twat. In fact, quite the opposite. T.H. appears to have a winning touch and his teammates are yet again believing in his every move. This kinda makes him like Jesus. Or Tim Tebow. 

All of that being said however, this is Kirk Cousins' "revenge game," and even though Minnesota feels paper tiger-ish to me, I always like a good retribution.

Minnesota wins but Washington covers.

Vikings 24  Commanders 21  

Carolina at Cincinnati (-7.5)

After laying a prime time egg by the lake last Monday night, I can’t fathom Cincy doing anything less than what the Oregon Ducks are going to do to my beloved CU Buffaloes this Saturday.

Bengals 34  Panthers 13

Buffalo (-12.5) at New York Jets

A wise man from the mean streets of North Alamosa once told me, "Son, don't ever bet on crappy teams to beat good ones." And because Zach Wilson's name was mentioned above, I don’t think New York stands a chance at covering the spread.

Bills 31  Jets 13

Indianapolis at New England (-4.5)

Bill Belichick surpassed George Halas last weekend and now sets his sights on Don Shula’s spot as the NFL’s all time winningest head coach.

In typical style, Bill was elated:

Danny DeVito and Bill Belichick reflect on Bill
becoming the 2nd winningest coach in NFL history.

I can’t get on board with the Indianapolis Colts right now, what with their bizarre handling of Matt Ryan and complete mis-use of Jonathan Taylor and all.

To think there’s a team with a more fu-k’d up quarterback room than New England’s, is reason enough to stay away from the horseshoes here.

Patriots 23  Colts 15

Las Vegas (-1.5) at Jacksonville

I feel like if judges could hand out punishment in the form of watching tv on Sundays, this would be it.

I mean, last Sunday the Raiders failed to cross midfield in New Orleans, while the Jaguars couldn’t keep up with that offensive juggernaut known as the Denver Broncos.

Criminy.

I'll begrudgingly take the Silver & Black here, mainly because they didn’t fly back from Greenwich Mean Time in the same week that we also set our clocks back. This has to matter somehow.

Raiders 29  Jaguars 20

Miami at Chicago (+4.5)

Chicago really does just seem to be poorly lead and basically pretty shitty. And to top it off now they’re dressing like Reece’s Pieces wrappers. For shame. That being said, the only thing uglier than all of that may be the weather in Chicago this weekend, and because of that I'll take the points.

Dolphins 23  Bears 22

Green Bay (-3.5) at Detroit

I don’t see Detroit winning, much less keeping it within a field goal against a desperate and embarrassed Packer team hanging on to their season by a thread. Come to think of it, I don't see Detroit winning, much less keeping it within a field goal... ever.

Packers 24  Lions 14

LA Chargers (-3) at Atlanta

Two weeks ago I would have jumped all over the three-game-winning-streak and suddenly surging Chargers here.

Then Seattle went into LA and laid the wood to the Bolts in an impressive showing that resembled that ambush Colonel Custer fell to at the Battle of Little Big Horn.

And now, to further complicate matters, Atlanta all of a sudden looks like a team of Andy Warhols who stumble serendipitously into wins you never saw coming. 

Sigh. 

This is another Rosie O’Donnell at a salad bar game. Avoid it. But since I have to pick, gimme the Chargers coming off an extra week to prepare I guess. 

Chargers 30  Falcons 24

LA Rams (+3.5) at Tampa Bay

All I know is whoever loses this game is gonna be sweating like Roger Ebert.

Someone’s gonna be on a big thumbs down by Sunday night.

I honestly don’t know which team pulls this one out in what has otherwise been disastrous seasons for both.

Cooper Kupp’s injury definitely plays a big role, and I suppose since they are the road team there is disadvantage for LA in having to fly across country and play in front of a loud and rowdy opposing crowd. Then again, the Rams are used to playing in front of loud and rowdy opposing crowds even when at home. So that's a wash.

Feels like a field goal game, therefore I’ll take the Rams plus the points. But I think Tampa Bay eeks out the win.

Buccaneers 24  Rams 21

Tennessee (+12.5) at Kansas City

Total trap game here for Tennessee as the Titans must be careful not to look ahead to next week’s huge game against Denver.

If Ryan Tannehill plays I might consider picking the visitors to entertain us with an upset. Then again, even if he does, he sucks. Derek Henry does not suck, however, and right now he is in full King Henry mode. It will be enough for Tennessee to keep it within the spread.

Chiefs 31  Titans 23

Baltimore (-2.5) at New Orleans

Too much inconsistency from the Saints this year. And since they looked downright dominant last week, surely they are due to look like imbeciles this week.  

Gimme Lamar Jackson coming off a mini bye week all day here.

Ravens 27  Saints 16

Bet the Nest

Philadelphia (-13.5) at Houston

Sure, that’s a lot of points.

But of all the teams this season who failed to successfully cover a huge number as favorites, it has been to opponents who have capable offenses lead by quarterbacks who can drive for backdoor points late in blowout games (see: Rodgers, Aaron last week in Buffalo).

Davis Mills is not Rodgers *comma* Aaron, and will not lead the Texans to a backdoor cover.

This one was over the minute the plane landed, and the fans in attendance will be watching the other Houston-Philly game anyway: Series tied, 2-2.

Eagles 37  Texans 13

Fox in the Hen House

Seattle at Arizona (-2)

By now everyone with an internet connection knows that the Geno Smith Seahawks are leading the NFL in inspiring wins, feel good stories, and Russell Wilson memes. Their Week 8 win over America’s other upstart darlings, the Giants, has even further solidified the Sea Chickens as pro football’s chic pick every Sunday. They score, they protect the football, and they force turnovers on D. Not to mention, they just beat the Cardinals two weeks ago.

So why aren't they favored?

Cardinals 26  Seahawks 21

And there you have them. The Week 9 Picks. With a 5.6 sec hang time, bird dropped into the coffin corner. RIP Ray.

Season Total Straight Up Winners: 75-47-1

Season Total Against the Spread:  70-53

Lock of the Week Picks: 5-3

Trap Game of the Week:  3-5

Get. Out! The Bird's Week 2 NFL Picks

Welp. Week 1 is officially in the books!

Record-wise it wasn’t the best of weeks, but considering some really promising teams looked awful (Green Bay, Tennessee) and some really awful teams looked promising (Houston, Cincinnati), one can’t complain too much about coming out of Week 1 in the black.

Some intriguing teams looked even more intriguing after Week 1 (Arizona, Dallas, both LA’s), while others looked absolutely less intriguing after Week 1 (Minnesota, Indianapolis, Atlanta). And then there were a few teams who looked to be exactly what we expected (Tampa Bay, Kansas City, San Francisco).

Joe Burrow and Carson Wentz appear to be healthy again, Jerry Jeudy and Ryan Fitzpatrick sadly saw their names added to the injured reserve, and for the first time in three weeks no Baltimore running backs tore their ACL.  Meanwhile Russell Wilson looked like the old Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers looked nothing like the old Aaron Rodgers, And Teddy Bridgewater looked like Daniel Kaluuya from the movie Get Out!

Doppelganger jokes aside, Teddy B. looked very sharp in his Broncos debut.

Uncanny resemblances notwithstanding, Bronco fans have to be excited after watching Teddy Two-Gloves last Sunday. His numbers weren’t jaw-dropping, but the way in which he played was about as close to perfection as we’ve seen in these parts in a very long time.  TB5 spread the ball around to 9 different receivers, delivered with accuracy, and even launched a couple of long bombs… which we were told he was incapable of doing. Perhaps best of all, on several occasions #5 extended the play, and he was clutch on multiple 3rd and 4th down conversions.  It was only one week, but…

This is our guy?  Get out!

Time to build on last week’s momentum and keep picking winners.  On to Week 2!

 

New York Giants (+3.5) at Washington

New York looked stifled at best last week in what essentially was a bed crapper against Denver at home. Not to be outdone in matters of crapping themselves though, Washington wants everyone to know that they are perfectly adept at making a mess of things too:

Click here to see: shit happens!

Yep. Not only did starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick land on the IR with a subluxation of his hip, but the upper level sewage line started raining down on the Football Team’s dearly beloved shortly after.  Honestly, I'm not sure which was the added insult.

So.  Even though Daniel Jones continues to show he’s good for at least one critical fumble per game, he somehow has managed to go 4-0 against the ‘Skins/Football Team while being 3-18 against everyone else. I could suggest here that he owns Washington, but really I just can't shake the feeling that dislocated hips and shitters leaking down onto your fan base are two unmistakable signs that this is not going to be your year. Sorry, Football Team.

I’ll bet the G-Men to keep it within the spread, if not win altogether. 

 

Denver at Jacksonville (+6)

As optimistic as I felt last Sunday night when Melvin Gordon ripped off that 70 yarder late in the 4th to officially make it a blowout, I remain steadfastly pessimistic when it comes to 11am games on the east coast for my Donkeys. It’s just the way it goes and always has for this team. 

I’ll predict an ugly win for Denver, but a final score closer than six points makes Jacksonville my pick against the spread. Something in the neighborhood of 17-12 and a related spike in my blood pressure seem very plausible here.  Almost predictable. 

 

Houston (+13) at Cleveland

Did everyone see the new and improved Browns last week? No, I’m not talking about the extra chutzpah and savvy they brought to KC for 52 minutes of a 60 minute game in which a botched snap by the punter -on their only punt of the game!- may have been all that kept them from notching last weekend’s biggest upset. 

I’m talking about Cleveland’s “new uniforms” of course! That’s right. The Brownies unveiled newer and sleeker unis that the organization says “pay tribute” to the club’s history in this, their 75th anniversary season. 

You probably didn’t notice because they generally look just like the previous 75 years of Browns uniforms. Gotta hand it to them though. Cleveland’s idea of “Before & After” is inspiringly similar to my dieting “successes”:

Cleveland's new uniforms (R) as compared to their old ones (L).

 

Anyhow. Another thing that hasn’t changed: unless it’s 1946 or Jim Brown is toting the rock, never ever EVER bet on Cleveland to cover a spread this big. Houston is the pick.

 

Buffalo (-3) at Miami

Coming off their big road win to start the season, I fully expect all 900 of Miami's fans —plus that big teal tarp they hide the upper level seats under— to be in attendance for this one.

This might have been a tougher game for me to pick had Buffalo held serve and won last week, but since the Bills lost and now see their season of high hopes staring ominously at an 0-2 start, I fully expect them to circle the wagons.  Buffalo wins and covers. 

 

New England at New York Jets (+6)

I simply cannot envision a world in which the Patriots are 0-2 and staring up from the basement in their division. Clearly, Bill Belichick is no longer cheating hard enough.

A sort of constitutional vibe and a quarter century of recent AFC East history almost demands a Patriots win this Sunday. Newly born babies, nuns, nurses, first responders, war heroes, Betty White, and all else that is good and pure in this world surely deserve the opposite. This is too much.

I feel dirty, but I’m picking the Pats here to win and cov— Wait! Wait…

I almost broke one of my own cardinal rules:  never bet on a rookie QB on the road.  New England may still cheat and win but I’ll take the Jets to cover.

Cincinnati at Chicago (-2.5)

People who switch to Geico are happy. How happy, Jimmy? Happier than Andy Dalton that this game isn’t being played in Cincinnati.

Two entire cities are convinced ol’ Andy isn’t a proper answer for NFL quarterback, even though the poor sap is being completely shackled by play calling that’s more conservative than an Amish fashion show.

 

Top: Chicago's play calling.

Bottom: The rest of the league.

Chicago’s gonna win this game, probably because of something Justin Fields does, but we'll call it Dalton’s Revenge either way.  Take the Bears, minus the points.

 

San Francisco (-3) at Philadelphia

I did not see that coming last week from the Eagles. That being said and with all due respect, San Francisco has better things to do than spend their first two weekends of fall in Detroit and Philly.

The Niners make short work of this one.

 

New Orleans at Carolina (+3.5)

Jameis Winston headed into this season as the only player in NFL history to throw 30 TD & 30 INT in the same season, then in Week 1 promptly became the first player to ever toss 5 touchdowns in a game while throwing for less than 150 yards.

I am not a statistician, but I am an American voter and taxpayer, so I know all about how fuzzy math works. Obviously Winston is poised to throw 5 interceptions this week just to make everything right in the world. 

Carolina covers as home underdogs. In fact I think they win the game straight up. 

LA Rams (-3.5) at Indianapolis

Matthew Stafford showed last Sunday that waking up on game day to play quarterback in LA and not Detroit is akin to Robert Downey Jr. swapping a life of hand guns, heroin and cocaine for being Tony Stark instead.  Everything’s coming up Matty!

 

Left: Stafford's time in Detroit.    Right: Stafford's arrival in L.A.

 

The Rams looked damn potent in the air last week and it was evident from all of the smiles; from the owner, to the fans, to that blonde NBC mistakenly called Mrs. Stafford, to the players themselves, and right down to Sean McVay who skipped up and down the sidelines with childish glee all game: LA has found their Iron Man. 

I’m picking them here as a team with tons of rise on the horizon.

Las Vegas (+6.5) at Pittsburgh

Last Monday night’s Raider victory was one of the more implausible finishes to a game I’ve seen in a long time. The fact that they survived every attempt made to “Raider it up” is a good omen I suppose. I mean, besides somehow not scoring after having a 1st and Goal from the 1-foot line, they then won on a TD lob later in OT because no one could find the kicker after Gruden had called timeout to set up a game winning field goal.  Only the Raiders.

I learned long ago that good omens are not to be ignored however, and I feel a strong follow up is looming.

Likewise, Pittsburgh shocked most of the country last weekend with an impressive road win against a team many have picked to make a Super Bowl run this year. A natural let down is brewing in this scenario, I feel.  The Raiders keep this one closer than a touchdown, and I may even pick them to win it outright in an upset.

 

Minnesota at Arizona (-3.5)

When I drafted Kyler Murray two weeks ago to be the stalwart leader of my Fantasy Football team, I was almost positive I had just jinxed him into a sophomore slump of epic proportions. It’s just the way I roll.  Then the little guy accounted for 5 TDs and shredded Tennessee like a stack of old tax returns. It was glorious!

I’m riding the K Train down every track I can until I see a reason not to.  Take the Red Birds minus the points this Sunday.

Tennessee (+6.5) at Seattle

When I drafted Julio Jones two weeks ago to be the lead wide receiver of my Fantasy Football team, I was almost positive I had just jinxed him into a…

Well, I knew I was screwing with someone’s season by drafting them. 

The Titans are a much better team than they showed last weekend, and they’ll need more than three catches for 29 yards from Julio this Sunday to prove so. I’m always weary of picking against Seattle at home, but I’ll give a slight lean to Tennessee here, getting six and a half. 

 

Atlanta (+12.5) at Tampa Bay

In my "Matchup that I gave 90 seconds of thought to before sending out my picks for the week" pick, I think I'll play the 13-point underdogs simply because divisional games are usually tightly contested. Atlanta covers.  

And somewhere Flava Flav bellows, “Cant truss it!” Oh well. 

Dallas at LA Chargers (-3)

This will feel like a home game to the Cowboys, as the Chargers continue to run weekly Amber Alerts looking for fans throughout the various Southern Cali municipalities they have called home. I fully expect a 70-30 crowd in favor of the ‘Boys inside SoFi Stadium. 

That being said, none of those fans play cornerback and Dallas just gave up 400 yards passing in their opener (all be it to Tom Brady), and now face a quarterback who launches as freely as Don Rickles at a Dean Martin Celebrity Roast. Translation: Justin Herbert is primed for a huge day.

The Chargers win this shootout and cover the three points.

 

Kansas City (-3.5) at Baltimore

This shapes up to be a very good game with humongous playoff implications even though it is only Week 2. The Chiefs looked like a champion prize fighter doing all they could to weather the storm of a younger challenger last week, and for about 9 rounds Cleveland had them up against the ropes. 

Baltimore, meanwhile, looked like an even younger and badder challenger than Cleveland until they tired in the last round and left their jaw exposed.

Sigh. Baltimore will be at home and playing desperate, yet the gambler's fallacy says "keep taking Kansas City until they stop throwing touchdowns on every sixth play.” 

I’ll take the Chiefs, minus the points, to win and cover. But I'll admit I'm not confident in it.

 

Detroit at Green Bay (-12.5)

I predicted last week that Detroit would find a way to only lose “sort of” badly to San Francisco and that the real ass kicking would come in Week 2 at the hands of the Packers. 

That of course was before Green Bay made Jameis Winston look like Tecmo Bowl Warren Moon, while looking every bit themselves like a team that spent their entire off season marinating in drama and distraction. Damn they were awful. But they are still not Detroit awful. 

 

Covering 12+ points is asking a lot of a team that just got their asses whooped 38-3 to a squad forced to play their "home game" 4 states over because of a hurricane.  Still, something tells me Green Bay will do what Green Bay does, and Detroit will do what Detroit does.  Packers roll.

Until next week, my friends.  You’ve been Bird Dropped.

Last Week Straight Up Winners: 10-6

Current Season Total Straight Up Winners: 10-6

Last Week Against the Spread: 9-6-1

Current Season Total Against the Spread:  9-6-1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Coming Soon! The Weekly NFL Picks Are Back!

I hold in my hand the envelope. As a child of four can plainly see, this envelope has been hermetically sealed.  It has been kept in a mayonnaise jar on Funk and Wagnall's porch since noon today.  NO ONE knows the contents of the envelope... but The Bird... who in his mystical and borderline divine way, will ascertain the answers.

 

 

Calling all fans of football! In less than a fortnight it all starts again!

With parched mouths we have crawled through the dog days of summer.  We've scaled that God-awful sports void that lies between Major League Baseball's All Star Break and College Football's "Week Zero" kickoff, wherein we break the seal with such classics as UTEP vs. New Mexico St. and Nebraska's annual game against The Abilene School for the Little Sisters of the Poor. Actually this year the Big Red scheduled Illinois and promptly (and gloriously) got their asses kicked.

Either way, unless you enjoy the penultimate months of MLB's way-too-long regular season, or cheer on the Fighting Illini, there is no worse time on the calendar for sports fans than right now.  NFL fans especially. As Clark Griswold once carped after trudging through the desert with his pants on his head: "I'm so hungry I could eat a sandwich from a gas station."

The Bird stumbles through the last stretch of NFL fans' most barren wasteland: July and August. Thirsty, if not dying, for the quench of the Sunday gridiron.

 

Alas, I even watched three weeks of the European Soccer Championship just so I could say I partook in some type of "football" viewing this summer. I was so ashamed afterward that I asked a neighbor to red card me.

I miss Terry and Howie.

Fear not, however! Toss the rubbish of Euro football and Simone Biles-less Olympics into the pragmatic trash heap of insatiable exhibits of sports viewing. NFL football is back!

Come with me, to a place where the picks flow like wine.  Where Sunday morning armchair quarterbacks instinctively flock like the salmon of Capistrano.  That's right.  I'm talking about a little place called... The Bird Droppings.

For those who have suppressed the trauma of reading the Bird Droppings way back in your youth, this was once the place to obtain every ounce of knowledge necessary to go into your NFL weekend beaming with all the same confidence as Deshaun Watson in a massage parlor.  And now that sports betting is legal in all the cool states, plus West Virginia, you are encouraged once again to turn to the Bird's prognostications and bank a little coin along the way.

If you're completely new, then welcome!  Each week we will examine the match ups (against the spread for some added resplendence) as well as review, pontificate, and poke fun of the season's trends and story lines as they unfold.  The occasional soliloquy about the affairs of my Denver Broncos is also likely to show up from time to time for the amusement of all who read.

So put on your eye black and let’s go!  Names are being sewn on jerseys as we speak.  End zone paint is being applied on fields across the land.  And Bill Belichick has replenished his stock of hoodies and hemorrhoid cream.

No masks required.  The Bird is ready for some football...  Are you?