Sound the Melodica! The Bird’s Week 2 NFL Picks

(Voluntarily burning :39 seconds in honor of Nathaniel Hackett. Please wait.)

Okay.

As always, Week 1 in the NFL is littered with so many Donald Rumsfeldian “unknowns” that one’s ability to predict anything comes about as easy as a Bill Belichick smile. 

Lame things like botched kicks, mismanaged timeouts, and the Dallas Cowboys all played a role in what was a very laughable Week 1. Hell, the Bears were even flagged for an unsportsmanlike penalty for “illegal use of a towel.” While playing in the middle of Lake Michigan for heaven’s sake!

Thanks to all of it, my season started out a bit like this:

Click here to see the Bird Droppings opening fanfare

Shake my head. What a start to the NFL year. The fact that I finished with a better record against the spread than I did in picking straight up winners is perhaps the biggest anomaly in all of it. That’s almost impossible to do.

Anyway… 

This weekend has six games with spreads of at least a touchdown; two-thirds of those are 9 1/2 points or higher. Should be another interesting gamut to behold. Let’s look at the Week 2 matchups!

A Bird’s Eye View (picks and analysis)

LA Chargers (+4.5) at Kansas City

The Bolts wrote the blueprint last season on how to go toe-to-toe with the Chiefs, and now they’ve added a bunch of badasses to their defense too. Keenan Allen’s absence is concerning, but no team is built for matching up with the Chefs like San Diego is. Yes, I still call them the Chefs. And I still say San Diego. 

Getting this many points for what feels like a field goal game is beyond tempting. Chefs win; San Diego covers.

Chiefs 31 Chargers 27

New York Jets at Cleveland (-6.5)

Joe Flacco was born way back when I was in 5th grade, making him 37 years old. Last week New York asked him to throw the ball 59 times for a ‘Pass Attempt-vs-You’re Too Old to Do That’ ratio of -22. One silver lining though: I bet it felt nice for Joe to be throwing to Ravens players again. 

Cleveland introduces a giant Keebler Elf as their midfield logo this season.

Welp, this decision’s easy.

Browns 26  Jets 16

Washington at Detroit (-1)

Early in the season (for a young team at least), it is sometimes better to lose a hard fought game than to win a contest in which you were outplayed by your opponent. Never mind that the Lions have been proving this theory wrong my entire life.

Regardless, I think our heroes in Silver & Blue get off the schneid in Week 2, fourteen weeks earlier than usual. 

Lions 27  Commanders 24

Carolina at New York Giants (-1.5)

What I learned last week: if this were 2021 or any season prior all the way back to the years of Eli and the helmet catch, a 13-point deficit to Tennessee on the road would have been an insurmountable challenge of Kilimanjaric proportions. However, contrary to the G-Men of years past, these guys have balls. 

Also what I learned last week: for reasons I can only chalk up to “not wanting to see him get hurt yet,” Carolina so far refuses to get CMC the ball nearly enough.

Giants 23  Panthers 20

Tampa Bay (-2.5) at New Orleans 

TB12 against Jameis? For once I won’t overthink something. 

Wait. After further thought I’m reminded that Brady and the Bucs are 0-4 the last two seasons vs. the Saints, and going back even further than that Tampa has lost 7 of 8 to the Fleur-de-Lis.

Hmm. They’ve gotta be due. I think.

Buccaneers 27  Saints 17

Miami at Baltimore (-3.5)

Miami really stuck it to Baltimore last year, like Really stuck it to them, so I’m a little weary of this being one of those “they’ve got your number” scenarios for the home team. But so long as Lamar Jackson is auditioning— I mean, playing— for a new mega-deal contract, I will roll with him to be more awesome than anything the Fish throw at him.

Also, my friend Nick picked up Tua in fantasy this week, so Miami is doomed.

Ravens 29  Dolphins 16

Indianapolis (-3) at Jacksonville

The Colts debuted a veteran “new” quarterback for like the 15th year in a row last week and polished what is becoming their Cleveland-like knack for losing season openers. Lucky for them they play in the AFC South, the world’s crappiest division this side of the WAC, so rebounds come quick and often.

Colts 27  Jaguars 17

Cincinnati (-7.5) at Dallas

Normally 8 pts is a huge number to cover on the road, but after watching the shitshow that is the Dallas Cowboys last Sunday night, how could anyone not bet on America’s Team to lose by at least 8 points from here on out? Their QB is some dude named Cooper Rush, for Christ’s sake.

(This might actually be a trap… *ponders picking Dallas*)

Blah. I have been very vocal with friends and family this off-season regarding my belief that not only will Cincinnati not make it back to the Super Bowl, but I think they might miss the playoffs altogether. 

This is an extreme opinion compared to most everyone, so I can only back up that kind of chutzpah by picking them to win and cover every week. It’s how I deploy my killer reverse jinx skills, and it worked like a charm 7 days ago.

Bengals 24  Cowboys 15

Atlanta at LA Rams (-10)

I don’t know what it takes to establish a loyal NFL fanbase in Los Angeles, but apparently a Super Bowl win and a shiny new stadium straight out of the year 2044 isn’t it. Matthew Stafford literally had to use a silent count last Thursday, at home!, while Josh Allen worked in sweet comfort and toasted the Rams’ vaunted defense. 

That being said, look for the defending champs to get right this week. 

Rams 30  Falcons 16

Seattle at San Francisco (-9)

In any battle not involving the French army, I will generally take the stronger pissed-off guy over the weaker satisfied guy.

49’ers 20  Seahawks 10

Arizona at Las Vegas (-5.5)

Ooof. I like the Raiders here but I don’t like the spread. Wait, I just remembered this is Arizona we’re talking about.

Raiders 31  Cardinals 23

Action photo of Arizona trying to keep up 
with Kansas City’s offense last week.

Chicago at Green Bay (-10)

Getting Allen Lazard back should help, and paired with my belief that Chicago probably has a falsely heightened sense of self-worth following last Sunday’s upset of the Niners, I think Green Bay wins. And as he reminded everyone last year, #12 “owns” Chicago, so probably by at least 10.

Packers 24  Bears 13

Tennessee (+9.5) at Buffalo

Tough spot for a Tennessee team desperate to not start 0-2. I don’t envision any scenario in which they win this game but, unlike the Bears, they are not riding the same false sense of self-worth because they just lost to the freaking Giants. Based on pride alone I’ll bet them to keep it within 10.

Bills 28  Titans 20

Minnesota at Philadelphia (-2.5)

The universe is at odds here on two very conflicting truths. On one hand, Kirk Cousins has owned Philadelphia going all the way back to his days as Washington’s QB. On the other, he is like 6-17 all time in “prime time” games.

Yep. A real Sophie’s Choice.

Since the ogreish fans of Philly will have an extra 7 hours to drink Yuengling Lager and throw batteries at people, I suspect the atmosphere will be even shoddier than that time they all boo’d Michael Irvin for being rolled off on a stretcher.

This will be unsafe for anyone wearing purple so make mine the men in green tights here.

Eagles 26  Vikings 23

Bet the Nest  (Lock of the week)

Houston at Denver (-10)

If I can’t pick a pissed off and embarrassed Denver squad in their home opener against a team even the Crimson Tide could beat as a sure thing this week, then I don’t think I ever can.

I mean, if they don’t fumble twice inside the 2 yard line and instead punch those in, we’re talking this week about a team who put up 430 yards of offense and 30 points on the road in a hostile environment rather than Nathaniel Hackett’s spot-on Vic Fangio impersonation.

Call me crazy (laying 10 pts in the NFL and calling it a “lock” is certainly a qualifying symptom), but I think Denver is about to take their frustrations out with all the wrath and passion as Andy Reid at a Golden Corral. 

Broncos 30  Texans 13

Fox in the Hen House  (Trap game of the week) 

New England at Pittsburgh (+2.5)

For the life of me, I can’t figure out why the Patriots are favored here. On the road, no less. 

Their quarterback apparently inherited Larry Bird’s lumbar system and Matt Patricia’s play calling so far resembles the high-powered juggernaut offenses I used to run on a vibrating sheet of tin back in 1981:

Matt Patricia’s offense doing it’s thing in Miami last week.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh just went into Cincinnati and beat the defending AFC Champs with Mitchell Freaking Trubisky. This isn’t 2017. So why in the world is New England favored??! 

Oh wait, I know…

Click here. It’s a Trap!

Steelers 20  Patriots 17

And there ya have it. The Week 2 Droppings…in a splash!

Season Total Straight Up Winners: 8-7-1

Season Total Against the Spread:  9-7

Lock of the Week Picks: 0-1

Trap Game of the Week:  1-0