Prayer Candles, Up! The Bird’s Week 9 Picks

Before we get started, prayers up for an NFL Legend on this day. Father (hang) Time finally caught up to the only punter ever drafted in the 1st Round, and the only full-time one to be enshrined in the Hall of Fame. I remember him vividly from the days of my youth while attending Raider-hating summer camps my parents put me through. 

Rest In Peace, Ray Guy. I don’t say this about many Raiders, but you sir were one of my faves.

The best ever.

Now then, the Week 9 Bird Droppings. But first, a look back on Week 8:

In the shadows of Wembley Stadium, the Broncos avoided relegation last weekend, leaving such demotions for those losers from Norwich City. And Matt Ryan.

Thank God I lit that prayer candle.

It's working!

So while I’m still thinking I’d rather watch the World Cup at this point, our heroes in Orange get a much-needed win and are no worse off than such preseason hopefuls as the Packers, Bucs or the defending champ Rams.

If only we were in the NFC South, we’d be talking about a division title.

Speaking of the NFC South…

And now, a 60-second spout-off of all the stupid things that we witnessed in Week 8. *deep inhale*… The Falcons and Panthers managed the last few minutes of regulation and OT like a couple of bumbling idiots that literally almost resulted in a 4-way tie for first place in the South, where 3-5 records rule the day… Justin Fields is the latest bonehead player to not understand that an opposing player with the ball must be touched in order to be down… and kudos to Micah Parsons on the same play for getting up and running for a touchdown; because there are an equal amount of morons in pads who would have fallen on that fumble and laid there planning their sideline celebration, having never dawned on them that they weren’t down… Taunting in the NFL (eye rolls, please). In a sport where grown men hit, tackle, and crush each other while inflicting physical pain, it’s 15 yards and a potential ejection for hurting someone’s feelings… Speaking of hurt feelings: I see you, Raiders… Did anyone else see the ref in Seattle call a penalty on the “Seattle Mariners?” I don’t know what the hell is going on anymore, but I’m pretty sure Lou Piniella was ready to argue it… And finally, in a league where “young QBs” are making Tim Tebow look like Joe Montana at an alarming rate (Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, Davis Mills, Kenny Pickett, Malik Willis, PJ Walker, Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence, and Indianapolis’s very own Sam Ehlinger), Matt Ryan is seriously not even suited up on the sidelines as a backup option for the latter? We all know he got “benched” so Jim Irsay could get his jollies with his new Longhorn signal caller, but dude isn’t even in uniform now??

All of a sudden I hear The Pointer Sisters for some reason. 

Click this link to see: Fields Jumps Parsons

The Bird had a bounce-back weekend last week, and both the straight up picks and the picks against the spread are well in the black. Let’s keep it going…

(PS- several teams are on their bye this week, including the Broncos, who’s offense will be resting from that 21-pt outburst that surely drained them of all their powers.)

Let us make like Justin Fields and jump (for my love) into Week 9:

Bird’s Eye View 

Minnesota at Washington (+3.5)

Taylor Heinicke is one of the few “young QBs” I did not mention in my rant above, mainly because he is not playing like a twat. In fact, quite the opposite. T.H. appears to have a winning touch and his teammates are yet again believing in his every move. This kinda makes him like Jesus. Or Tim Tebow. 

All of that being said however, this is Kirk Cousins' "revenge game," and even though Minnesota feels paper tiger-ish to me, I always like a good retribution.

Minnesota wins but Washington covers.

Vikings 24  Commanders 21  

Carolina at Cincinnati (-7.5)

After laying a prime time egg by the lake last Monday night, I can’t fathom Cincy doing anything less than what the Oregon Ducks are going to do to my beloved CU Buffaloes this Saturday.

Bengals 34  Panthers 13

Buffalo (-12.5) at New York Jets

A wise man from the mean streets of North Alamosa once told me, "Son, don't ever bet on crappy teams to beat good ones." And because Zach Wilson's name was mentioned above, I don’t think New York stands a chance at covering the spread.

Bills 31  Jets 13

Indianapolis at New England (-4.5)

Bill Belichick surpassed George Halas last weekend and now sets his sights on Don Shula’s spot as the NFL’s all time winningest head coach.

In typical style, Bill was elated:

Danny DeVito and Bill Belichick reflect on Bill
becoming the 2nd winningest coach in NFL history.

I can’t get on board with the Indianapolis Colts right now, what with their bizarre handling of Matt Ryan and complete mis-use of Jonathan Taylor and all.

To think there’s a team with a more fu-k’d up quarterback room than New England’s, is reason enough to stay away from the horseshoes here.

Patriots 23  Colts 15

Las Vegas (-1.5) at Jacksonville

I feel like if judges could hand out punishment in the form of watching tv on Sundays, this would be it.

I mean, last Sunday the Raiders failed to cross midfield in New Orleans, while the Jaguars couldn’t keep up with that offensive juggernaut known as the Denver Broncos.

Criminy.

I'll begrudgingly take the Silver & Black here, mainly because they didn’t fly back from Greenwich Mean Time in the same week that we also set our clocks back. This has to matter somehow.

Raiders 29  Jaguars 20

Miami at Chicago (+4.5)

Chicago really does just seem to be poorly lead and basically pretty shitty. And to top it off now they’re dressing like Reece’s Pieces wrappers. For shame. That being said, the only thing uglier than all of that may be the weather in Chicago this weekend, and because of that I'll take the points.

Dolphins 23  Bears 22

Green Bay (-3.5) at Detroit

I don’t see Detroit winning, much less keeping it within a field goal against a desperate and embarrassed Packer team hanging on to their season by a thread. Come to think of it, I don't see Detroit winning, much less keeping it within a field goal... ever.

Packers 24  Lions 14

LA Chargers (-3) at Atlanta

Two weeks ago I would have jumped all over the three-game-winning-streak and suddenly surging Chargers here.

Then Seattle went into LA and laid the wood to the Bolts in an impressive showing that resembled that ambush Colonel Custer fell to at the Battle of Little Big Horn.

And now, to further complicate matters, Atlanta all of a sudden looks like a team of Andy Warhols who stumble serendipitously into wins you never saw coming. 

Sigh. 

This is another Rosie O’Donnell at a salad bar game. Avoid it. But since I have to pick, gimme the Chargers coming off an extra week to prepare I guess. 

Chargers 30  Falcons 24

LA Rams (+3.5) at Tampa Bay

All I know is whoever loses this game is gonna be sweating like Roger Ebert.

Someone’s gonna be on a big thumbs down by Sunday night.

I honestly don’t know which team pulls this one out in what has otherwise been disastrous seasons for both.

Cooper Kupp’s injury definitely plays a big role, and I suppose since they are the road team there is disadvantage for LA in having to fly across country and play in front of a loud and rowdy opposing crowd. Then again, the Rams are used to playing in front of loud and rowdy opposing crowds even when at home. So that's a wash.

Feels like a field goal game, therefore I’ll take the Rams plus the points. But I think Tampa Bay eeks out the win.

Buccaneers 24  Rams 21

Tennessee (+12.5) at Kansas City

Total trap game here for Tennessee as the Titans must be careful not to look ahead to next week’s huge game against Denver.

If Ryan Tannehill plays I might consider picking the visitors to entertain us with an upset. Then again, even if he does, he sucks. Derek Henry does not suck, however, and right now he is in full King Henry mode. It will be enough for Tennessee to keep it within the spread.

Chiefs 31  Titans 23

Baltimore (-2.5) at New Orleans

Too much inconsistency from the Saints this year. And since they looked downright dominant last week, surely they are due to look like imbeciles this week.  

Gimme Lamar Jackson coming off a mini bye week all day here.

Ravens 27  Saints 16

Bet the Nest

Philadelphia (-13.5) at Houston

Sure, that’s a lot of points.

But of all the teams this season who failed to successfully cover a huge number as favorites, it has been to opponents who have capable offenses lead by quarterbacks who can drive for backdoor points late in blowout games (see: Rodgers, Aaron last week in Buffalo).

Davis Mills is not Rodgers *comma* Aaron, and will not lead the Texans to a backdoor cover.

This one was over the minute the plane landed, and the fans in attendance will be watching the other Houston-Philly game anyway: Series tied, 2-2.

Eagles 37  Texans 13

Fox in the Hen House

Seattle at Arizona (-2)

By now everyone with an internet connection knows that the Geno Smith Seahawks are leading the NFL in inspiring wins, feel good stories, and Russell Wilson memes. Their Week 8 win over America’s other upstart darlings, the Giants, has even further solidified the Sea Chickens as pro football’s chic pick every Sunday. They score, they protect the football, and they force turnovers on D. Not to mention, they just beat the Cardinals two weeks ago.

So why aren't they favored?

Cardinals 26  Seahawks 21

And there you have them. The Week 9 Picks. With a 5.6 sec hang time, bird dropped into the coffin corner. RIP Ray.

Season Total Straight Up Winners: 75-47-1

Season Total Against the Spread:  70-53

Lock of the Week Picks: 5-3

Trap Game of the Week:  3-5

Unnecessary Unnecessary Roughness: The Bird’s Week 6 NFL Picks

Warning: this blog was just flagged for roughing the passer.

C'mon, NFL. What are we doing here? Ugh.

With my left eye still twitching from witnessing Grady Jarrett and Chris Jones getting completely screwed out of key sacks last weekend, all I can really do is move on and pray the NFL figures this out. Kinda like when they realized after the 2019 season that they really shouldn’t be proactively looking for holding on every single play.

Some things truly don’t need over-legislating. And even more things than that can (and should be) trusted simply to common sense and passing the “eye test.”

👆These were penalties…??? 👇

I know people who hug more aggressively.

For shame, for shame. Let’s move on.

Last week I was a pedestrian 9-7 Against the Spread, but a respectable 11-5 picking the straight up winners. As for Week 6... I've busted out my pleather pants and I’m going all Mad Max again. Of the 14 games, I like 9 road teams against the spread.

Note: mercifully, the Lions, Titans, Raiders and Texans are all taking the week off, so no one has to worry about seeing any of that.

Here we go!

A Bird’s Eye View

Washington at Chicago (+1)

Just when I thought the duck-billed platypus and Nathaniel Hackett were the only mammals who laid eggs, the NFL schedule maker follows up that Broncos-Colts disaster with this beauty.

I suppose if given the choice between picking this game and taking a swift kick to the weiner, I'd say something lacking conviction like, "I'll take the Bears instead of getting kicked in the junk, please." 

Bears 22  Commanders 20

Minnesota (-3.5) at Miami

I was thinking back on the Dolphins' 40-17 debacle last Sunday in East Rutherford— another QB concussed, Tyreek Hill injured, losing by 20+ to the Jets, etc.— hoping to find any sliver of light to shine on Miami’s football team.

Looking. Looking... Man. It's darker than Teddy Bridgewater’s butthole in here.

If the Dolphins had either: A) a fully healthy Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback or B) a fully healthy quarterback besides Tua Tagovailoa but not named Skylar Thompson starting, I'd take them plus the points. Since it is likely they will not have either, I give the edge to Minnesota.

Vikings 23  Dolphins 17

New England (+3.5) at Cleveland

A few weeks ago it would have been easy to pick Cleveland here. But... they are the Browns. 

So long as I get to add 3 1/2 points to New England's score, I’ll bet the road dawgs. Cleveland may win but New England covers.

Browns 20  Patriots 17

San Francisco (-5.5) at Atlanta 

I really have no reason to go against San Fran's defense at this point, any more than I really have no reason to go with Atlanta's offense. Welp, this pick just made itself.

49'ers 28  Falcons 17

Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh (+8.5)

Two clashes of gambler's fallacy are at odds here:

1. Tampa has proved more than once they should never be counted on to cover any spread bigger than 7 points.
2. Pittsburgh proved last week that, even when given 14 points, they are likely to still go out and lose by 3x that amount.

Sigh.

I hate Sophie's Choice, but I suppose if a Nazi stuck his Luger in my face and demanded I choose… I would take Pittsburgh to cover at home (even with a rookie QB making his second ever start) because, well, Tampa has bombed as heavy faves way too many times in the last two seasons. That, and this is not Buffalo in Buffalo. Which should feel a lot more accommodating for the Steel men.

Buccaneers 21  Steelers 19

Cincinnati (-1.5) at New Orleans

I keep picking Cincinnati’s games the same way Michele de Nostredame used to write Leś Prophéties from his ink and quill desk in 1673 France.

The Bird has been Nostradamus-like this season 
whilst predicting Cincinnati’s future. 

Why stop now?

Bengals 30  Saints 27

Baltimore (-5.5) at New York Giants

New York seems to have found their bygone form of run-the-ball, smash mouth football. Or, at the very least, they have found a way to beat up on teams that lose to schlubs like the Lions or have psychedelic quarterbacks who are completely disinterested in playing games in Limeytown.

Since Baltimore is neither of these things, this game should be a true test of just how solid the Giants are.

The two best running backs in the NFL will be on display here, and I think the Ravens’ QB is the better of the two. I don't see New York keeping up with Lamar Jackson to be honest.

Ravens 26  G-Men 19

Jacksonville (+1.5) at Indianapolis

Other than losing to a bunch of resiliency-proof turds like the Houston Texans, I didn't see Jacksonville do anything overly stupid last week. Meanwhile Indianapolis lucked out by beating an increasingly incapable Denver team in extra innings.

Jaguars 26  Colts 23

New York Jets at Green Bay (-7)

I don’t wear a foam cheddar wedge on my head on Sundays, so I feel like I can be honest with you about the Packers.

I give them benefit of the doubt for being better than their record shows, even though it's hard to ignore the fact that they have struggled mightily against teams who start young, crappy quarterbacks but have super hero running backs.

Conversely, the Jets are hot at 3-2, have a young, crappy quarterback, and a running back who went off for 200 yds last week. Yet I can't seem to convince myself that they are really all that good.

I’m hesitant, but I like the Pack to finally put together four full quarters of quality football this week.

Packers 31  Jets 23

Arizona (-3) at Seattle

This week I trust Kyler Murray won’t slide until after he’s reached the line to gain. And at some point Geno Smith will stop looking like Warren Moon… right? 

Cardinals 24  Seahawks 17

Buffalo (-2.5) at Kansas City

I’m not even gonna screw this one up by saying anything. Let’s just all enjoy the AFC Championship.

Bills 34  Chiefs 31

Dallas (+6.5) at Philadelphia

It's quite possible that I have underestimated the entire NFC East. Well, the three quarters of it that doesn’t play in our nation's capital, at least.

The Eagles showed they are beatable last week while the Cowboys continue to flex some serious defensive muscles. 

This has “field goal game” written all over it which means I’m taking the points. TBH, I like the Cowboys to pull the upset and with that the ’72 Dolphins can pop another cork. 

Cowboys 23  Eagles 20

Bet the Nest

Carolina at LA Rams (-10)

When picking any matchup other than a Nebraska Cornhusker non-conference game against Arkansas-Little Rock Technical College, it’s never wise to bet the team laying double-digit points and call them a lock.

But I feel like the Rams need to make a statement after being snuffed out like a Jeff Probst Survivor torch each of the past two weeks. If they can't do it at home against a 1-4 team who just fired their head coach and replaced their starting quarterback with the ever-dangerous PJ Walker, then it’s just time to stick a fork in LA.

They’ve lost two in a row. They’re desperate. They have to roll here. I say they will.

Rams 34  Panthers 13

Fox in the Hen House

Denver at LA Chargers (-4.5)

For the life of me, I can't figure out why the Chargers are only giving 4 1/2 points to a team who pretty much averages 9 points per game and displays some form of blatant stupidity every single week. Like, I don't know, constantly throwing from the shotgun inside the 5 yd line, throwing from the shotgun on 4th & 1 inside the 5 yd line, and then throwing from the shotgun on 4th & 1 inside the 5 yd line to the guy in triple coverage instead of the wide open guy screaming like a banshee for the ball.

For the first time since 1997, I did some math: LA is averaging 26 points per game, including 32 ppg in their last two. Denver is scoring points at the same pace as the Houston Astros.

Why is this only a 4 1/2 point spread? Whyyyy?

Me, thinking I have this
Chargers pick in the bag?

Looks too good to be true but I’m falling for it. Best case scenario— maybe my reverse jinx powers will equate to Denver turning their season around (insert hysterical laughter here.)

Chargers 23  Broncos 13

You've been Bird Dropped! And flags have been thrown. Ridiculous15 yard penalty coming up.

Season Total Straight Up Winners: 51-28-1

Season Total Against the Spread:  45-35

Lock of the Week Picks: 3-2

Trap Game of the Week:  2-3

Countdown: The Bird’s Week 3 NFL Picks

Well…

Clearly my Donkeys are still working through some things.

I can’t be overly judgmental though because I too chose to not start any preseason games, hence my picks are suffering similarly. Difference is, I don’t have a ton of pre-snap penalties and clock management gaffes to show for it. Just a less-than-what’s-expected overall record for myself.

Then again, if the Raiders, Rams, Ravens, and Browns don’t all blow massive leads in the 4th quarter last week, I would have gone 10-6 ATS instead of 6-10, and could say I had a nice little Sunday.

Sigh. If “ifs” and “buts” were candy and nuts…

Anyway. The Week 3 picks start in:

Click here for the Week 3 Countdown

A Bird’s Eye View (picks and analysis)

Pittsburgh (+5) at Cleveland

God hates Cleveland and deservedly so. 

Watching the Browns break a league streak of 2,229 consecutive games where a team leading by at least 13 points in the final two minutes holds on to win, was about as Clevelandy a thing we’ve seen since that time the Cuyahoga River was on fire.

Never mind they were also the last team to lose so magnificently, when they blew a 21-7 lead in the final :32 seconds of a 2001 game against Chicago.

This is why they are called the Browns.

Which is also why its fitting they are streaming on Prime this week. Because they are hard to watch anyway. 

Steelers cover.   (FYI I’m only picking the Browns to outright win because I think it’s the only way Pittsburgh moves on from Mitch Trubisky and starts the Kenny Pickett era). 

-shrug-

Browns 16  Steelers 13

Baltimore (-2.5) at New England

I broke a cardinal rule last week: Anyone who bets on the Patriots to start a season 0-2 doesn’t know just how big of a dick William Stephen Belichick can be. I knew it the minute I got to my tailgate party last Sunday and saw the NE-PIT score.

The good news for me is, I don’t have to ponder if the Pats are going to possibly start 0-3 now, which makes it a lot easier for me to take Baltimore. Not to mention Lamar Jackson is just sick.

Ravens 24  Patriots 17

New Orleans (-2.5) at Carolina

In Week 1 Carolina sucked horribly in the first half. Last week they sucked horribly in the second half. This week I think they will just suck horribly the whole game.

Saints 27  Panthers 23

Detroit at Minnesota (-5.5)

I bet the Vikings are pretty pissed off about how badly they got ass-whooped in Philly last week. And for pretty much every year since 1946, one of the greatest cures for a team in need of redemption is playing the Detroit Lions. Minnesota sips that magical elixir this week.

Vikings 31  Lions 21

Houston at Chicago (-2.5)

So far I am not impressed with Chicago.

That said, the Houston Texans may have the worst offense this side of Boulder, Colorado. I would elaborate here but chances are my laptop battery would not last long enough to undertake such a task.

Chicago is back at home and Aaron Rodgers is 1,200 miles away in another time zone this week, which is a good thing.

Bears 20  Texans 12

Philadelphia (-6.5) at Washington

After years of watching Alabama quarterbacks dominate college football then come to the NFL and immediately start sucking, Jalen Hurts is looking more and more like the next Joe Namath or Kenny Stabler rather than the slew of A.J. McCarrons, Greg McElroys, Jeff Rutledges, Jay Barkers and however many other lame duck Crimson Tiders I can no longer recall.

I’m impressed. Until I see reason to do otherwise, I’m riding the Eagles; a team who looks like they smell blood in the NFC East and who have a silent assassin nobody is talking about under center.

Eagles 30  Commanders 20

Cincinnati (-5.5) at New York Jets

It is sensationalism of the highest order to label any game that takes place in Week 3 of the NFL season as a “must win.”

That having been said, if you are the Cincinnati Bengals, this is a must win.

Bengals 29  Jets 20

Las Vegas (-1.5) at Tennessee

Speaking of…

They say you can’t win a championship in September. But you sure as hell can lose one. After today one of these teams will be looking at a Herculean effort if they want to get back to the playoffs.

Normally I love a home dawg, but the Raiders have been competent and maybe even a little snake bit. Tennessee has just flat out sucked and may have also had their soul ripped right out of their ass last Monday in Buffalo. 

Raiders 27  Titans 24

Jacksonville (+3.5) at LA Chargers

Justin Herbert has popped rib cartilage, which is something I did to myself while coughing two years ago.

Don’t laugh.

For three weeks I couldn’t do mundane things like adjust my rear view mirror, point the tv remote, or even lift a beer to my mouth or wipe my ass unless I did so southpaw. I don’t know how in the name of Phyllis Rivers he can quarterback the Chargers without doing so either in great discomfort or on heavy drugs.

Also, Jacksonville is trending up. Which is a sentence that has never before been uttered in human history. This has to stand for something.

I’ll take the scrappy Jags to cover against a Charger team that is one sneeze away from Chase Daniel throwing to the wrong team all day.

Chargers 27  Jaguars 24

Atlanta (+1) at Seattle 

Marcus Mariota vs. Gino Smith! Finally it has happened! Remember this day my friends. Some day, when your grandchildren are sitting on your knee, they are going to ask where you were when this battle of titans occurred.

Photo from the last time two QB’s of this caliber met up on the gridiron.

I am almost too excited to pick here. All I know is, anytime you’re choosing between two mediocre teams with dipshit QB’s, it’s always wisest to take the team that’s getting points.

Falcons 24  Seahawks 21

LA Rams (-3) at Arizona

The Rams raced out to a huge lead last week then almost lost it, save for a Jalen Ramsey game-clinching interception in the end zone.

The Cards did the exact opposite, then stormed back from a 20-0 deficit to steal victory from the jaws of defeat in overtime.

I really don’t know which way to go here, but since Kyler Murray got bitch slapped by a fan after Arizona’s win and no one tried to do the same to Matt Stafford, I suppose the Rams are more likable.  

Yeah, sometimes I don’t even understand my logic.

Picking this game be like…

Rams 27  Cardinals 23

Green Bay (+2) at Tampa Bay

I kinda like the Pack here mainly because, apparently, when Tom Brady doesn’t get his kale shake and Bon Iver on vinyl in the mornings he can become quite the Karen.

Tom: “Did you hear the trash they were talking about Whole Foods?”
Mike: “Yeah. I punched that bitch for you.”

And Mike Evans will sit this one out for defending a white woman’s privileged behavior in New Orleans last week.

No Evans. Injuries. Turbulence. Green Bay covers. I think they win outright actually.

Packers 31  Buccaneers 24

San Francisco at Denver (+1.5)

Deep breath. Hear me out here.

No doubt it’s easy to pick on Denver these days.

Regardless of what you think about the play calling and general coaching awareness of one Nathaniel J. Hackett, do take heart: this line had Denver favored by 2.5 pts up until Jimmy Garoppolo became the 49’ers’ starter. Since then it has swung 4 points in the other direction, which tells us one thing: unless you think Jimmy G. is that great, Denver holds value here as a home underdog.

Their defense hasn’t given up a touchdown since the 2nd quarter of the Seattle game, and Russ now has two practice games under his belt. Garappolo does not. I’m also going to assume the Broncos don’t take 13 penalties for the third straight week. These are all difference makers if you ask me.

Oh. And if this were coming from the babbling mouth of a non-Bronco fan, it would sound more logical and less wishful thinking I assure you.

I don’t bet with my heart. But I feel this way about this game, and I do so objectively. If I’m wrong I will take up a monk-like commitment to self discipline starting Monday.

Broncos 23  49’ers 20

Dallas at New York Giants (-1)

Both of these teams are coming off of wins and have varying degrees of momentum heading into this matchup.

Call it a hunch, but I have a feeling Dallas may be feeling slightly overconfident, having punked the AFC champs just days after suspecting their season might be over.

And say what you will about the Giants, but it has been a long damn time since they have had to worry about taking an opponent lightly.

Are the Giants and their fans feeling less shame than usual after 2 games?  Yes. Is overconfidence likely? Such a notion is so foreign to these guys I have to assume No.

Giants 22  Cowboys 17

Bet the Nest  (Lock of the week)

Buffalo (-5.5) at Miami

Let’s be real. There is no betting app on any phone in the land right now where choosing Miami plus anything less than 10 points would be wise.

First of all, Miami was down 35-14 in the 4th quarter last week to Baltimore, before all hell broke loose in the Ravens’ secondary and the Phins were able to exact a miracle. If they lose that game 35-21 or 38-21 or whatever they should have lost by… the spread for this Buffalo game Sunday is not sixish points.

The Bills have won something like 20 straight games by double-digits, which basically means every week for two seasons they have been either destroying their opponent or losing to them.

Do I see them losing this Sunday? Nope. Following the trend.

Bills 41  Dolphins 31

Fox in the Hen House  (Trap Game of the week)

Kansas City (-5.5) at Indianapolis

Why in the name of Miley Cyrus’s headboard is this line so low??

I mean, Kansas City is averaging 35+ points a game, scoring like Ryan Gosling in a Sorority house, and go into this game with a ‘our weapons-vs-our opponent’s weapons’ ratio in the same neighborhood as Russia:Ukraine. 

The Colts, meanwhile, are averaging 10 pts per game against two suckhole opponents like Houston and Jacksonville. 

I see no scenario in this game where Kansas City doesn’t invade Indy and toss the little guys around by their skivvies.

How anyone who doesn’t think Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs aren’t worth 6 points against a Colts team that hasn’t scored six points since Week 1, is beyond me.. 

And every time Vegas puts up a line that seems too easy to be true, I have to look down at my feet.

Am I about to step into a trap?

Welp. I just compared the Chiefs to Vladimir Putin while suggesting a lot of scoring goes on in Hannah Montana’s bedroom. I guess I’m taking the bait. 

Chiefs 35  Colts 16

And there you have it. Let’s hope our winners all hang on for the full 60 min this week.

Season Total Straight Up Winners: 18-13-1

Season Total Against the Spread:  15-17

Lock of the Week Picks: 1-1

Trap Game of the Week:  1-1

Never have more eloquent words been spoken.

Sound the Melodica! The Bird’s Week 2 NFL Picks

(Voluntarily burning :39 seconds in honor of Nathaniel Hackett. Please wait.)

Okay.

As always, Week 1 in the NFL is littered with so many Donald Rumsfeldian “unknowns” that one’s ability to predict anything comes about as easy as a Bill Belichick smile. 

Lame things like botched kicks, mismanaged timeouts, and the Dallas Cowboys all played a role in what was a very laughable Week 1. Hell, the Bears were even flagged for an unsportsmanlike penalty for “illegal use of a towel.” While playing in the middle of Lake Michigan for heaven’s sake!

Thanks to all of it, my season started out a bit like this:

Click here to see the Bird Droppings opening fanfare

Shake my head. What a start to the NFL year. The fact that I finished with a better record against the spread than I did in picking straight up winners is perhaps the biggest anomaly in all of it. That’s almost impossible to do.

Anyway… 

This weekend has six games with spreads of at least a touchdown; two-thirds of those are 9 1/2 points or higher. Should be another interesting gamut to behold. Let’s look at the Week 2 matchups!

A Bird’s Eye View (picks and analysis)

LA Chargers (+4.5) at Kansas City

The Bolts wrote the blueprint last season on how to go toe-to-toe with the Chiefs, and now they’ve added a bunch of badasses to their defense too. Keenan Allen’s absence is concerning, but no team is built for matching up with the Chefs like San Diego is. Yes, I still call them the Chefs. And I still say San Diego. 

Getting this many points for what feels like a field goal game is beyond tempting. Chefs win; San Diego covers.

Chiefs 31 Chargers 27

New York Jets at Cleveland (-6.5)

Joe Flacco was born way back when I was in 5th grade, making him 37 years old. Last week New York asked him to throw the ball 59 times for a ‘Pass Attempt-vs-You’re Too Old to Do That’ ratio of -22. One silver lining though: I bet it felt nice for Joe to be throwing to Ravens players again. 

Cleveland introduces a giant Keebler Elf as their midfield logo this season.

Welp, this decision’s easy.

Browns 26  Jets 16

Washington at Detroit (-1)

Early in the season (for a young team at least), it is sometimes better to lose a hard fought game than to win a contest in which you were outplayed by your opponent. Never mind that the Lions have been proving this theory wrong my entire life.

Regardless, I think our heroes in Silver & Blue get off the schneid in Week 2, fourteen weeks earlier than usual. 

Lions 27  Commanders 24

Carolina at New York Giants (-1.5)

What I learned last week: if this were 2021 or any season prior all the way back to the years of Eli and the helmet catch, a 13-point deficit to Tennessee on the road would have been an insurmountable challenge of Kilimanjaric proportions. However, contrary to the G-Men of years past, these guys have balls. 

Also what I learned last week: for reasons I can only chalk up to “not wanting to see him get hurt yet,” Carolina so far refuses to get CMC the ball nearly enough.

Giants 23  Panthers 20

Tampa Bay (-2.5) at New Orleans 

TB12 against Jameis? For once I won’t overthink something. 

Wait. After further thought I’m reminded that Brady and the Bucs are 0-4 the last two seasons vs. the Saints, and going back even further than that Tampa has lost 7 of 8 to the Fleur-de-Lis.

Hmm. They’ve gotta be due. I think.

Buccaneers 27  Saints 17

Miami at Baltimore (-3.5)

Miami really stuck it to Baltimore last year, like Really stuck it to them, so I’m a little weary of this being one of those “they’ve got your number” scenarios for the home team. But so long as Lamar Jackson is auditioning— I mean, playing— for a new mega-deal contract, I will roll with him to be more awesome than anything the Fish throw at him.

Also, my friend Nick picked up Tua in fantasy this week, so Miami is doomed.

Ravens 29  Dolphins 16

Indianapolis (-3) at Jacksonville

The Colts debuted a veteran “new” quarterback for like the 15th year in a row last week and polished what is becoming their Cleveland-like knack for losing season openers. Lucky for them they play in the AFC South, the world’s crappiest division this side of the WAC, so rebounds come quick and often.

Colts 27  Jaguars 17

Cincinnati (-7.5) at Dallas

Normally 8 pts is a huge number to cover on the road, but after watching the shitshow that is the Dallas Cowboys last Sunday night, how could anyone not bet on America’s Team to lose by at least 8 points from here on out? Their QB is some dude named Cooper Rush, for Christ’s sake.

(This might actually be a trap… *ponders picking Dallas*)

Blah. I have been very vocal with friends and family this off-season regarding my belief that not only will Cincinnati not make it back to the Super Bowl, but I think they might miss the playoffs altogether. 

This is an extreme opinion compared to most everyone, so I can only back up that kind of chutzpah by picking them to win and cover every week. It’s how I deploy my killer reverse jinx skills, and it worked like a charm 7 days ago.

Bengals 24  Cowboys 15

Atlanta at LA Rams (-10)

I don’t know what it takes to establish a loyal NFL fanbase in Los Angeles, but apparently a Super Bowl win and a shiny new stadium straight out of the year 2044 isn’t it. Matthew Stafford literally had to use a silent count last Thursday, at home!, while Josh Allen worked in sweet comfort and toasted the Rams’ vaunted defense. 

That being said, look for the defending champs to get right this week. 

Rams 30  Falcons 16

Seattle at San Francisco (-9)

In any battle not involving the French army, I will generally take the stronger pissed-off guy over the weaker satisfied guy.

49’ers 20  Seahawks 10

Arizona at Las Vegas (-5.5)

Ooof. I like the Raiders here but I don’t like the spread. Wait, I just remembered this is Arizona we’re talking about.

Raiders 31  Cardinals 23

Action photo of Arizona trying to keep up 
with Kansas City’s offense last week.

Chicago at Green Bay (-10)

Getting Allen Lazard back should help, and paired with my belief that Chicago probably has a falsely heightened sense of self-worth following last Sunday’s upset of the Niners, I think Green Bay wins. And as he reminded everyone last year, #12 “owns” Chicago, so probably by at least 10.

Packers 24  Bears 13

Tennessee (+9.5) at Buffalo

Tough spot for a Tennessee team desperate to not start 0-2. I don’t envision any scenario in which they win this game but, unlike the Bears, they are not riding the same false sense of self-worth because they just lost to the freaking Giants. Based on pride alone I’ll bet them to keep it within 10.

Bills 28  Titans 20

Minnesota at Philadelphia (-2.5)

The universe is at odds here on two very conflicting truths. On one hand, Kirk Cousins has owned Philadelphia going all the way back to his days as Washington’s QB. On the other, he is like 6-17 all time in “prime time” games.

Yep. A real Sophie’s Choice.

Since the ogreish fans of Philly will have an extra 7 hours to drink Yuengling Lager and throw batteries at people, I suspect the atmosphere will be even shoddier than that time they all boo’d Michael Irvin for being rolled off on a stretcher.

This will be unsafe for anyone wearing purple so make mine the men in green tights here.

Eagles 26  Vikings 23

Bet the Nest  (Lock of the week)

Houston at Denver (-10)

If I can’t pick a pissed off and embarrassed Denver squad in their home opener against a team even the Crimson Tide could beat as a sure thing this week, then I don’t think I ever can.

I mean, if they don’t fumble twice inside the 2 yard line and instead punch those in, we’re talking this week about a team who put up 430 yards of offense and 30 points on the road in a hostile environment rather than Nathaniel Hackett’s spot-on Vic Fangio impersonation.

Call me crazy (laying 10 pts in the NFL and calling it a “lock” is certainly a qualifying symptom), but I think Denver is about to take their frustrations out with all the wrath and passion as Andy Reid at a Golden Corral. 

Broncos 30  Texans 13

Fox in the Hen House  (Trap game of the week) 

New England at Pittsburgh (+2.5)

For the life of me, I can’t figure out why the Patriots are favored here. On the road, no less. 

Their quarterback apparently inherited Larry Bird’s lumbar system and Matt Patricia’s play calling so far resembles the high-powered juggernaut offenses I used to run on a vibrating sheet of tin back in 1981:

Matt Patricia’s offense doing it’s thing in Miami last week.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh just went into Cincinnati and beat the defending AFC Champs with Mitchell Freaking Trubisky. This isn’t 2017. So why in the world is New England favored??! 

Oh wait, I know…

Click here. It’s a Trap!

Steelers 20  Patriots 17

And there ya have it. The Week 2 Droppings…in a splash!

Season Total Straight Up Winners: 8-7-1

Season Total Against the Spread:  9-7

Lock of the Week Picks: 0-1

Trap Game of the Week:  1-0