Countdown: The Bird’s Week 3 NFL Picks

Well…

Clearly my Donkeys are still working through some things.

I can’t be overly judgmental though because I too chose to not start any preseason games, hence my picks are suffering similarly. Difference is, I don’t have a ton of pre-snap penalties and clock management gaffes to show for it. Just a less-than-what’s-expected overall record for myself.

Then again, if the Raiders, Rams, Ravens, and Browns don’t all blow massive leads in the 4th quarter last week, I would have gone 10-6 ATS instead of 6-10, and could say I had a nice little Sunday.

Sigh. If “ifs” and “buts” were candy and nuts…

Anyway. The Week 3 picks start in:

Click here for the Week 3 Countdown

A Bird’s Eye View (picks and analysis)

Pittsburgh (+5) at Cleveland

God hates Cleveland and deservedly so. 

Watching the Browns break a league streak of 2,229 consecutive games where a team leading by at least 13 points in the final two minutes holds on to win, was about as Clevelandy a thing we’ve seen since that time the Cuyahoga River was on fire.

Never mind they were also the last team to lose so magnificently, when they blew a 21-7 lead in the final :32 seconds of a 2001 game against Chicago.

This is why they are called the Browns.

Which is also why its fitting they are streaming on Prime this week. Because they are hard to watch anyway. 

Steelers cover.   (FYI I’m only picking the Browns to outright win because I think it’s the only way Pittsburgh moves on from Mitch Trubisky and starts the Kenny Pickett era). 

-shrug-

Browns 16  Steelers 13

Baltimore (-2.5) at New England

I broke a cardinal rule last week: Anyone who bets on the Patriots to start a season 0-2 doesn’t know just how big of a dick William Stephen Belichick can be. I knew it the minute I got to my tailgate party last Sunday and saw the NE-PIT score.

The good news for me is, I don’t have to ponder if the Pats are going to possibly start 0-3 now, which makes it a lot easier for me to take Baltimore. Not to mention Lamar Jackson is just sick.

Ravens 24  Patriots 17

New Orleans (-2.5) at Carolina

In Week 1 Carolina sucked horribly in the first half. Last week they sucked horribly in the second half. This week I think they will just suck horribly the whole game.

Saints 27  Panthers 23

Detroit at Minnesota (-5.5)

I bet the Vikings are pretty pissed off about how badly they got ass-whooped in Philly last week. And for pretty much every year since 1946, one of the greatest cures for a team in need of redemption is playing the Detroit Lions. Minnesota sips that magical elixir this week.

Vikings 31  Lions 21

Houston at Chicago (-2.5)

So far I am not impressed with Chicago.

That said, the Houston Texans may have the worst offense this side of Boulder, Colorado. I would elaborate here but chances are my laptop battery would not last long enough to undertake such a task.

Chicago is back at home and Aaron Rodgers is 1,200 miles away in another time zone this week, which is a good thing.

Bears 20  Texans 12

Philadelphia (-6.5) at Washington

After years of watching Alabama quarterbacks dominate college football then come to the NFL and immediately start sucking, Jalen Hurts is looking more and more like the next Joe Namath or Kenny Stabler rather than the slew of A.J. McCarrons, Greg McElroys, Jeff Rutledges, Jay Barkers and however many other lame duck Crimson Tiders I can no longer recall.

I’m impressed. Until I see reason to do otherwise, I’m riding the Eagles; a team who looks like they smell blood in the NFC East and who have a silent assassin nobody is talking about under center.

Eagles 30  Commanders 20

Cincinnati (-5.5) at New York Jets

It is sensationalism of the highest order to label any game that takes place in Week 3 of the NFL season as a “must win.”

That having been said, if you are the Cincinnati Bengals, this is a must win.

Bengals 29  Jets 20

Las Vegas (-1.5) at Tennessee

Speaking of…

They say you can’t win a championship in September. But you sure as hell can lose one. After today one of these teams will be looking at a Herculean effort if they want to get back to the playoffs.

Normally I love a home dawg, but the Raiders have been competent and maybe even a little snake bit. Tennessee has just flat out sucked and may have also had their soul ripped right out of their ass last Monday in Buffalo. 

Raiders 27  Titans 24

Jacksonville (+3.5) at LA Chargers

Justin Herbert has popped rib cartilage, which is something I did to myself while coughing two years ago.

Don’t laugh.

For three weeks I couldn’t do mundane things like adjust my rear view mirror, point the tv remote, or even lift a beer to my mouth or wipe my ass unless I did so southpaw. I don’t know how in the name of Phyllis Rivers he can quarterback the Chargers without doing so either in great discomfort or on heavy drugs.

Also, Jacksonville is trending up. Which is a sentence that has never before been uttered in human history. This has to stand for something.

I’ll take the scrappy Jags to cover against a Charger team that is one sneeze away from Chase Daniel throwing to the wrong team all day.

Chargers 27  Jaguars 24

Atlanta (+1) at Seattle 

Marcus Mariota vs. Gino Smith! Finally it has happened! Remember this day my friends. Some day, when your grandchildren are sitting on your knee, they are going to ask where you were when this battle of titans occurred.

Photo from the last time two QB’s of this caliber met up on the gridiron.

I am almost too excited to pick here. All I know is, anytime you’re choosing between two mediocre teams with dipshit QB’s, it’s always wisest to take the team that’s getting points.

Falcons 24  Seahawks 21

LA Rams (-3) at Arizona

The Rams raced out to a huge lead last week then almost lost it, save for a Jalen Ramsey game-clinching interception in the end zone.

The Cards did the exact opposite, then stormed back from a 20-0 deficit to steal victory from the jaws of defeat in overtime.

I really don’t know which way to go here, but since Kyler Murray got bitch slapped by a fan after Arizona’s win and no one tried to do the same to Matt Stafford, I suppose the Rams are more likable.  

Yeah, sometimes I don’t even understand my logic.

Picking this game be like…

Rams 27  Cardinals 23

Green Bay (+2) at Tampa Bay

I kinda like the Pack here mainly because, apparently, when Tom Brady doesn’t get his kale shake and Bon Iver on vinyl in the mornings he can become quite the Karen.

Tom: “Did you hear the trash they were talking about Whole Foods?”
Mike: “Yeah. I punched that bitch for you.”

And Mike Evans will sit this one out for defending a white woman’s privileged behavior in New Orleans last week.

No Evans. Injuries. Turbulence. Green Bay covers. I think they win outright actually.

Packers 31  Buccaneers 24

San Francisco at Denver (+1.5)

Deep breath. Hear me out here.

No doubt it’s easy to pick on Denver these days.

Regardless of what you think about the play calling and general coaching awareness of one Nathaniel J. Hackett, do take heart: this line had Denver favored by 2.5 pts up until Jimmy Garoppolo became the 49’ers’ starter. Since then it has swung 4 points in the other direction, which tells us one thing: unless you think Jimmy G. is that great, Denver holds value here as a home underdog.

Their defense hasn’t given up a touchdown since the 2nd quarter of the Seattle game, and Russ now has two practice games under his belt. Garappolo does not. I’m also going to assume the Broncos don’t take 13 penalties for the third straight week. These are all difference makers if you ask me.

Oh. And if this were coming from the babbling mouth of a non-Bronco fan, it would sound more logical and less wishful thinking I assure you.

I don’t bet with my heart. But I feel this way about this game, and I do so objectively. If I’m wrong I will take up a monk-like commitment to self discipline starting Monday.

Broncos 23  49’ers 20

Dallas at New York Giants (-1)

Both of these teams are coming off of wins and have varying degrees of momentum heading into this matchup.

Call it a hunch, but I have a feeling Dallas may be feeling slightly overconfident, having punked the AFC champs just days after suspecting their season might be over.

And say what you will about the Giants, but it has been a long damn time since they have had to worry about taking an opponent lightly.

Are the Giants and their fans feeling less shame than usual after 2 games?  Yes. Is overconfidence likely? Such a notion is so foreign to these guys I have to assume No.

Giants 22  Cowboys 17

Bet the Nest  (Lock of the week)

Buffalo (-5.5) at Miami

Let’s be real. There is no betting app on any phone in the land right now where choosing Miami plus anything less than 10 points would be wise.

First of all, Miami was down 35-14 in the 4th quarter last week to Baltimore, before all hell broke loose in the Ravens’ secondary and the Phins were able to exact a miracle. If they lose that game 35-21 or 38-21 or whatever they should have lost by… the spread for this Buffalo game Sunday is not sixish points.

The Bills have won something like 20 straight games by double-digits, which basically means every week for two seasons they have been either destroying their opponent or losing to them.

Do I see them losing this Sunday? Nope. Following the trend.

Bills 41  Dolphins 31

Fox in the Hen House  (Trap Game of the week)

Kansas City (-5.5) at Indianapolis

Why in the name of Miley Cyrus’s headboard is this line so low??

I mean, Kansas City is averaging 35+ points a game, scoring like Ryan Gosling in a Sorority house, and go into this game with a ‘our weapons-vs-our opponent’s weapons’ ratio in the same neighborhood as Russia:Ukraine. 

The Colts, meanwhile, are averaging 10 pts per game against two suckhole opponents like Houston and Jacksonville. 

I see no scenario in this game where Kansas City doesn’t invade Indy and toss the little guys around by their skivvies.

How anyone who doesn’t think Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs aren’t worth 6 points against a Colts team that hasn’t scored six points since Week 1, is beyond me.. 

And every time Vegas puts up a line that seems too easy to be true, I have to look down at my feet.

Am I about to step into a trap?

Welp. I just compared the Chiefs to Vladimir Putin while suggesting a lot of scoring goes on in Hannah Montana’s bedroom. I guess I’m taking the bait. 

Chiefs 35  Colts 16

And there you have it. Let’s hope our winners all hang on for the full 60 min this week.

Season Total Straight Up Winners: 18-13-1

Season Total Against the Spread:  15-17

Lock of the Week Picks: 1-1

Trap Game of the Week:  1-1

Never have more eloquent words been spoken.