Let's Ride: The Bird’s Week 1 NFL Picks

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Nothing in the great circle of modern American existence so intensely rekindles hope’s flame like the beginning of the NFL season.

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In fact, a new NFL season is the only way that people living in decrepit places like East Rutherford can wash the collective bile from their mouths after having suffered the indignity of residing in such a locale for yet another year.

But enough about the rekindled aspirations of perennial losers from cities that smell like poo. These are The Bird Droppings and last year we raked thru the NFL season with precision and astuteness, going 190-101 overall and 153-135-3 against the spread. 

Pats on the back aside, last year is behind us. You can’t hit new heights by surfing old waves, so let’s grab a new one and hang ten. Looking ahead to 2022, what more can I say other than to parrot the war cry of my beloved Broncos’ new leader:

Bird Droppings…Let’s Ride.

A Bird’s Eye View (Select games and analysis)

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (-6.5)

First off. I am not one who believes the Bengals are going to be anywhere near as good as they finished last season. I still recall a Week 14 matchup last year where 7-6 Cincinnati visited 7-6 Denver in a game pitting two desperately average clubs playing for the right to remain “in the hunt” in the AFC. The Bengals won a 15-10 fart-chaser of a game and… well, we all know what happened from there.

That being said, I do like them this Sunday opening at home with some Queen City swagger not seen since The Bird was first growing arm pit hair and the Berlin Wall was crumbling.

Six and a half points is a hefty spread for any divisional matchup, but this trip to Riverfront Stadium is going to be hell for a hated rival who has spent the better part of Terry Bradshaw's existence beating the crap out of teams from Ohio. (Editor's note: The Bird knows it is no longer Riverfront, but he has a disease where he still refers to NFL stadiums by what they were called during his childhood.)

The flames of hope, excitement, and Steeler comeuppance will be fanned with great vigor this weekend and I think the pre-kickoff Jumbotron video montage of 2021’s Super Bowl run will be worth 7 pts alone. Did I mention Pittsburgh is following Mitch Trubisky into this jungle?

Take the Bengals, minus the points.

Bengals 31  Steelers 17

Tampa Bay at Dallas (+2.5)

The Buccaneers are widely considered to be the class of the NFC. They’ve been in the thick of the championship calculations for several years now, they’ve won a recent Lombardi trophy, and their QB is that soulless bastard who has played in more Super Bowls than twenty other teams combined. Their defense is young and stout, and they have an inspired Todd Bowles donning the coach’s headset instead of that guy who looked like he owned Jurassic Park. 

The Cowboys, last I checked, still have the ever-cerebral Mike McCarthy calling the shots and haven’t sniffed a Conference title since I was in college and the Spice Girls owned MTV and a spot on our fraternity wall.

That all being said, I like Dallas here. Allow me to explain: When the Cowboys are 7-3 and playing right into the hopes and dreams of their loyally stupid fanbase, look for them to crap the bed like Amber Heard and limp into their annual 8 win finish. Until then though, watch them get all of Cowboy Nation excited as hell. Dallas certainly covers. I predict they might even win outright. 

Cowboys 27  Buccaneers 24

Indianapolis (-7) at Houston

I think it's safe to say that the Cleveland Browns and Houston-area masseuses equally had the league’s most tumultuous off-season. Well then, the Houston-area football team had the most disastrous.

The Texans will sport new alternate helmets for select games this year. 

When your Plan B is a dude named Davis Mills handing off to a guy named Marlon while throwing to a bunch of schmendricks not named DeAndre Hopkins or Will Fuller, and your defense is a basic scheme of hoping the other team doesn’t realize JJ Watt has left, well… you can rest easy Colts fans and south Texas massage ladies.  

Matt Ryan’s Indy debut is going to go very well me thinks.

Colts 34  Dumpster Fires 17

 

Baltimore (-6.5) at New York Jets

Baltimore was 8-4 last year and in the driver’s seat in the AFC North before Lamar Jackson suffered his season ending injury and they lost all 5 of their remaining games. Let’s not forget that.

The Jets finished 4-13 with their quarterback of the future (who again has been sidelined before his second season even begins) and who apparently spends his off-field time boning his mom’s friends. To be fair, let’s not forget that either.

One team’s QB is back in action; healthy, eager to redeem his team’s title hopes, and in the motivational throes of playing in a contract year. The other team’s guy is out with a bum knee and in the motivational throes of giving his mom’s old college friend a candle lit back rub last night.

Easy peasy.

Ravens 27  Jets 17

Bet the Nest  (Lock of the week)

New York Giants at Tennessee (-5.5)

For 9 months Tennessee has had to live with the halitosis of winning last year’s AFC 1-seed and home field advantage, only to watch Ryan Tannehill channel his inner Kerry Collins and f— it all up.

Meanwhile Giants fans continue to hope that someday Daniel Jones will channel his inner Kerry Collins as a general sign of improvement. This is not good.

Look for the Titans to rage a little. 

Titans 27  Giants 9

 

Fox in the Hen House  (Trap game of the week) 

New England at Miami (-3.5)

Under normal circumstances, placing my confidence behind any team wearing aquamarine tights generates excessive reflux. Also under normal circumstances, anytime you can get points with a Bill Belichick Patriots team against any opponent as shitty as Miami, you should take them and run. 

I mean, who in the name of Sam Wynn Casino would ever pit a team that finished 7-10 against a perennial playoff team coached by Throw Mama From the Train and then make them nearly 4 point favorites?

Yet here we are, staring at the Dolphins as solid favorites going into the opener. *scratches head*

Despite all this, I think I get it. Miami is a horrible place to be this time of year, let alone while wearing football gear. With the eastern seaboard averaging a heat index that rivals satan’s living room, and the fact that since it’s Week 1 we can imagine more than 950 fans showing up, there should be a bona fide home field advantage at play. 

It feels like a trap, but clearly the smart money seems to be going toward the home team. I’ll bite. 

Dolphins 24 Patriots 20

Kill Two (or more) Birds with One Stone (The rest of the picks)

Buffalo at LA Rams  (+2.5)

Not since we all tuned in to see who shot J.R. has a season opener been so intriguing. You could bet either team here and not be called crazy, which is usually an indicator that you should stay away and just enjoy it. Bills 31  Rams 30

San Francisco at Chicago (+6.5)

Trey Lance vs. Justin Fields and one of the two has an O-Line that leaks like Edward Snowden at an NSA mixer. I’ll take Chicago with a back door cover but San Fran definitely wins. 49’ers 20  Bears 16

Philadelphia at Detroit (+4.5)

Restore the Roar.  Lions 26  Eagles 23  OT

Jacksonville at Washington (-2.5)

I’ve cancelled my cable package simply so I don’t accidentally see any of this game. Since I have the Jacksonville running back on my fantasy team, I feel safe picking him to suck and the home team to win. Commanders 23  Jaguars 20

New Orleans at Atlanta (+5.5)

‘Nawlins gets Jameis Winston back and I don’t know if that’s a good thing or a bad thing. The Dirty Birds roll with Marcus Marriota and I realize I am equally flummoxed on this too. Saints 30  Falcons 27

Kansas City (-5) at Arizona

Arizona’s roster resembles a MASH unit. Kansas City’s does not. Chiefs 31  Cardinals 17

Cleveland at Carolina (+1.5)

No one expects him to be Cam Newton, but if Baker Mayfield can drum up -at a minimum!- the fond memories of Steve Burlein or Jake Delhomme, Panther Nation will be happy. It’s also Week 1, which means Christian McCaffrey hasn’t broken or torn anything yet. Panthers 26 Browns 17

Green Bay at Minnesota (+1.5)

Green Bay seems to always start slow. And by “start slow” I mean “gets blown out in Week 1.”  Vikings 30 Packers 20

Las Vegas at LA Chargers (-3.5)

Too much fire power from the home team and I hate the visitors.  Chargers 31  Raiders 21

Denver at Seattle (+6.5)

If there’s one game all season that Pete Carrol and Seattle will be ready for, it’s this one. Six and a half seems like a big number to cover on this road trip so I’ll take the underdogs plus the points. Broncos 27 Seahawks 24  

And so it begins, my friends! Good luck!