Okay, this season is officially nuttier than squirrel turds.
The last three NFL weekends have been replete with absurd happenings, unforeseen choke jobs, and inspired upsets by teams who otherwise get clobbered by 30 points all the time.
November alone has brought us the Jaguars absolutely stuffing the Bills, the hapless Jets blasting conference-leading Cincinnati, the Broncos bitch-slapping Dallas, and that team formerly named after indigenous peoples with darker hued epidermises than Anglo Saxons making Tom Brady look like Vinny Testaverde in Washington's complete smack down of the Bucs.
The hell is going on out there??
Shit is so crazy right now, that I swear I saw Cam Newton last Sunday. Cam Newton is back?? Oh, and the Lions didn’t lose!
Do you hear me, people? THE LIONS DIDN’T LOSE!!
This madness is impossible to pick lately, and all of us are suffering in our pick’em pools and betting apps as a result. Even the Bird Droppings are in the red each of the past two weekends —a first for this season— and I can’t stand for that.
So, without further adieu, again it is time....
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I’ve seen it work on TV, and long time readers of the Droppings may or may not remember that I have played this angle before. I know it will work for predicting this week’s winners (against the spread at least. Baby steps), and by next week's post we'll be back to our regular soothsaying and Jimmy the Greek-like prognosticating.
But for now, nothing can be trusted to common sense and logic. Week 11 is here and I am asking myself, WWCD… "What would Costanza do?"
New England at Atlanta (+7)
In a development that has everyone outside of Beantown throwing up in their mouths and shuddering with cold sweats and ghastly visions of the past twenty years, the Patriots are actually starting to look exactly like the Patriots again.
The Falcons just gave up something like a hundred points in one half and now have 5 losses by an average of 20 points each time they suck. Which, when they do, they suck gloriously.
Seems like a straight forward pick to me, but in the Costanzian spirit of going against all better judgement…
WWCD: I’m betting the Falcons this day. It’s not a lie if you believe it, Jerry!
Falcons 27 Patriots 24
Baltimore at Chicago (+5)
Every
fiber of my being says that Baltimore will recover from last Thursday's pathetic performance against the Dolphins, especially when I consider this week they are playing Chicago... who is just like the Miami of the NFC. Now don't get me wrong, that's a good thing three out of every ten weeks. But as this week goes, the Ravens seem like the logical pick as the better team.
WWCD: Since I'm going the other way of logical picks this week, I'll take the team that I just acknowledged has a good week three tenths of the time, plus the points.
Ravens 24 Chicago 21
Detroit (+11) at Cleveland
If not for the fact that living in Detroit has given Lions fans an impossibly high tolerance for depressing sights and events, the parking lots around Ford Field would be rife with self-immolation by now. And lucky for all of them, the Lions are again on the road this Sunday as they continue chasing that evasive first win.
The Browns meanwhile, despite being banged up and reeling, return home and should be fueled by pride and desperation after that ass beating they took in New England. They are clearly the better team even in their current state.
Which is to say...
WWCD: Only George Costanza in full rebellion against his better judgement would pick the 0-8-1 Lions to cover a road spread less than two touchdowns. Do not try this at home.
Browns 23 Lions 20
San Francisco at Jacksonville (+6)
The Niners just pummeled one of the top 3 teams in the league and appear to be finding some rhythm with two wins in their last three games. The Jaguars are 3-19 in their last 22 games.
WWCD: It's been since roughly Week 3 of the 2016 season, but today I will say again, "Take Jacksonville plus the points."
49'ers 20 Jaguars 17
Washington (+3.5) at Carolina
I totally would have taken Carolina last week had I known Cam Newton would be inserted under center so immediately like that.
I also would have taken Washington had I known Taylor Heinicke was going to play like Tom Brady and Tom Brady was going to play like Taylor Heinicke. Did you read the part above about squirrel turds and absurd happenings in the NFL?
This seems to be a slam dunk for the suddenly recharged Panthers, at home, and against a team I guarantee is due for the all-too-predictable letdown after blowing their wad in a signature win last Sunday against the world champs. Cam Newton is also likely frothing at the mouth with anticipation of going against his former coach, Ron Rivera.
Welp…
WWCD: Gimme the Washington Football Team babee!
Washington 23 Panthers 21
Green Bay at Minnesota (+2.5)
This one is tricky even on the opposite scale. Normally we would all agree that Green Bay should win by at least a field goal, we'd all laugh at some fat guy with a cheese slice on his head, admire an even fatter woman with purple horns and a shield, and we would merrily Costanza our way into a Vikings-plus-the-points bet.
The absence of Aaron Jones, however, for a match up on the road against a team showing all season a strong knack for keeping games close, makes Minnesota as home dawgs a very enticing pick.
I still think Green Bay is the better team, and now with a defense that in the past three weeks has held Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes, and Kyler Murray to 1 combined TD and 4 INT, I'd probably bet the Pack in a heartbeat if asked. Which means...
WWCD: Minnesota is the bet.
Packers 31 Vikings 30
Indianapolis (+7) at Buffalo
Indianapolis is hot (5-2, after an 0-3 start), but their five wins have come against two rookie quarterbacks, Davis Mills, Jacoby Brissett, and Jimmy Garoppolo. Pretty damning evidence.
There's no way the Colts go on the road and hang within a touchdown of Josh Allen and the Bills. Right..?
WWCD: Buffalo may still win the game, but Indy keeps it close.
Bills 30 Colts 24
New Orleans (+2) at Philadelphia
"Who are you, George Costanza?"
Philadelphia's gotta be licking their chops right now. Coming home after two big wins on the road and facing a Saints team without Alvin Kamara and without any semblance of a professional quarterback.
WWCD: Going against all of the warm fuzzies Philly has going for them and taking the team with the shittier QB, what else?
Saints 24 Eagles 21
Miami at New York Jets (+3.5)
The Jets feel like they are getting better, but I'm only basing that on the fact that lately they have only 'kind of' sucked. The thought here is that Miami, coming off a huge win and with an extra 3 days to prepare for a Jets team being quarterbacked by Joe Flacco, is the smart pick. So...
WWCD: Did I just say, "Joe Flacco?" Well then, The Jets it is!
Jets 24 Dolphins 22
Houston (+11) at Tennessee
Can anyone who hasn't been drinking Texas moonshine honestly tell me that the Texans are going to march into Music City and hang within four field goals of the best team in the AFC?
WWCD: Take the points and pass the moonshine.
Titans 26 Houston 17
Cincinnati at Las Vegas (+1.5)
Facts:
- A really good and really pissed off Bengals team returning from a two week break in which they had ample time to stew over back-to-back losses to the Jets and Browns.
- A Vegas team that has quietly been regressing over the past several weeks and has a recent history of starting strong and fading fast.
Easy, right?
WWCD: Give me the Raiders. Reeling internally and facing a young and talented team coming off the bye and anxious to get back on the winning track. Costanza logic says so.
Raiders 28 Bengals 27
Dallas (+2.5) at Kansas City
Two teams who definitely got their swagger back last weekend square off in what should be the game of the week. Kansas City at home is almost always my pic, so in honor of the strategy this week…
WWCD: Dallas plus the points. I’m tempted to go “full George” here and pick an outright upset. Yeah, what the hell:
Cowboys 37 Chiefs 34
Arizona (-2.5) at Seattle
Three painstakingly long weeks ago Arizona looked to be in firm control of the NFC and remained as the league's only undefeated team. And with a bye on the horizon, thoughts now are that the Cards may shelve Kyler Murray for one more week to allow for additional time to heal that gimpy ankle. Not only does this reflect Arizona’s awareness of needing to protect their long term future as opposed to panicking for a short-sighted win now, but it also completely F#@!?*'s my fantasy team.
Seattle has Russell Wilson back and after knocking the rust off last week in the snow in Green Bay, the Seabirds' QB should be ready to return to form at home this week.
Seattle here, yeah?
WWCD: Take the team that is without their quarterback and best wide receiver, has lost two of three games after starting the season 7-0, and is playing a traditionally difficult divisional foe who is desperate to save their season of course!
Cardinals 27 Seahawks 24
Pittsburgh at Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5)
The Chargers have dropped three of their past four. Last weekend they lost to a team that had 5 starters out on the Covid list and who's star RB had a former girlfriend file a civil suit against him just before the plane departed St. Paul. Yikes. After a crazy hot start to the season, it's almost as if Norv Turner has taken over the coaching again for L.A.
Pittsburgh meanwhile is unbeaten in their last five games, which would be pretty cool except for one of those "non-losses" was last week's tie to a team who was otherwise on their way to 0-17.
This one is hard to figure out. Which way is going the opposite of my gut?
WWCD: Since Pittsburgh is the hotter of these two teams and hasn't lost since October 3rd, they are the obvious pick as 41/2 point under dogs. Los Angeles, it is then!
Chargers 27 Steelers 22
New York Giants (+11.5) at Tampa Bay
I can't even wrap my brain around this pick. Taking the worst team in the NFC not named the Lions, on the road against an angry Tom Brady, and not getting at least 37 points from the odds makers? Deplorable.
WWCD: For the first time all season I think I will say, "Take the Giants."
Bucs 27 Giants 17
You've been Bird Dropped. Giddy up!
Last Week Straight Up Winners: 6-8
Current Season Total Straight Up Winners: 97-53
Last Week Against the Spread: 5-9
Current Season Total Against the Spread: 77-71-2
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