Warning: this blog was just flagged for roughing the passer.
C'mon, NFL. What are we doing here? Ugh.
With my left eye still twitching from witnessing Grady Jarrett and Chris Jones getting completely screwed out of key sacks last weekend, all I can really do is move on and pray the NFL figures this out. Kinda like when they realized after the 2019 season that they really shouldn’t be proactively looking for holding on every single play.
Some things truly don’t need over-legislating. And even more things than that can (and should be) trusted simply to common sense and passing the “eye test.”
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| 👆These were penalties…??? 👇 |
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| I know people who hug more aggressively. |
For shame, for shame. Let’s move on.
Last week I was a pedestrian 9-7 Against the Spread, but a respectable 11-5 picking the straight up winners. As for Week 6... I've busted out my pleather pants and I’m going all Mad Max again. Of the 14 games, I like 9 road teams against the spread.
Note: mercifully, the Lions, Titans, Raiders and Texans are all taking the week off, so no one has to worry about seeing any of that.
Here we go!
A Bird’s Eye View
Washington at Chicago (+1)
Just when I thought the duck-billed platypus and Nathaniel Hackett were the only mammals who laid eggs, the NFL schedule maker follows up that Broncos-Colts disaster with this beauty.
I suppose if given the choice between picking this game and taking a swift kick to the weiner, I'd say something lacking conviction like, "I'll take the Bears instead of getting kicked in the junk, please."
Bears 22 Commanders 20
Minnesota (-3.5) at Miami
I was thinking back on the Dolphins' 40-17 debacle last Sunday in East Rutherford— another QB concussed, Tyreek Hill injured, losing by 20+ to the Jets, etc.— hoping to find any sliver of light to shine on Miami’s football team.
New England (+3.5) at Cleveland
A few weeks ago it would have been easy to pick Cleveland here. But... they are the Browns.
So long as I get to add 3 1/2 points to New England's score, I’ll bet the road dawgs. Cleveland may win but New England covers.
Browns 20 Patriots 17
San Francisco (-5.5) at Atlanta
I really have no reason to go against San Fran's defense at this point, any more than I really have no reason to go with Atlanta's offense. Welp, this pick just made itself.
49'ers 28 Falcons 17
Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh (+8.5)
Two clashes of gambler's fallacy are at odds here:
- Tampa has proved more than once they should never be counted on to cover any spread bigger than 7 points.
- Pittsburgh proved last week that, even when given 14 points, they are likely to still go out and lose by 3x that amount.
I hate Sophie's Choice, but I suppose if a Nazi stuck his Luger in my face and demanded I choose… I would take Pittsburgh to cover at home (even with a rookie QB making his second ever start) because, well, Tampa has bombed as heavy faves way too many times in the last two seasons. That, and this is not Buffalo in Buffalo. Which should feel a lot more accommodating for the Steel men.
Buccaneers 21 Steelers 19
Cincinnati (-1.5) at New Orleans
I keep picking Cincinnati’s games the same way Michele de Nostredame used to write Leś Prophéties from his ink and quill desk in 1673 France.
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| The Bird has been Nostradamus-like this season whilst predicting Cincinnati’s future. |
Why stop now?
Bengals 30 Saints 27
Baltimore (-5.5) at New York Giants
New York seems to have found their bygone form of run-the-ball, smash mouth football. Or, at the very least, they have found a way to beat up on teams that lose to schlubs like the Lions or have psychedelic quarterbacks who are completely disinterested in playing games in Limeytown.
Since Baltimore is neither of these things, this game should be a true test of just how solid the Giants are.
The two best running backs in the NFL will be on display here, and I think the Ravens’ QB is the better of the two. I don't see New York keeping up with Lamar Jackson to be honest.
Ravens 26 G-Men 19
Jacksonville (+1.5) at Indianapolis
Other than losing to a bunch of resiliency-proof turds like the Houston Texans, I didn't see Jacksonville do anything overly stupid last week. Meanwhile Indianapolis lucked out by beating an increasingly incapable Denver team in extra innings.
Jaguars 26 Colts 23
New York Jets at Green Bay (-7)
I don’t wear a foam cheddar wedge on my head on Sundays, so I feel like I can be honest with you about the Packers.
I give them benefit of the doubt for being better than their record shows, even though it's hard to ignore the fact that they have struggled mightily against teams who start young, crappy quarterbacks but have super hero running backs.
Conversely, the Jets are hot at 3-2, have a young, crappy quarterback, and a running back who went off for 200 yds last week. Yet I can't seem to convince myself that they are really all that good.
I’m hesitant, but I like the Pack to finally put together four full quarters of quality football this week.
Packers 31 Jets 23
Arizona (-3) at Seattle
This week I trust Kyler Murray won’t slide until after he’s reached the line to gain. And at some point Geno Smith will stop looking like Warren Moon… right?
Cardinals 24 Seahawks 17
Buffalo (-2.5) at Kansas City
I’m not even gonna screw this one up by saying anything. Let’s just all enjoy the AFC Championship.
Bills 34 Chiefs 31
Dallas (+6.5) at Philadelphia
It's quite possible that I have underestimated the entire NFC East. Well, the three quarters of it that doesn’t play in our nation's capital, at least.
The Eagles showed they are beatable last week while the Cowboys continue to flex some serious defensive muscles.
This has “field goal game” written all over it which means I’m taking the points. TBH, I like the Cowboys to pull the upset and with that the ’72 Dolphins can pop another cork.
Cowboys 23 Eagles 20
Bet the Nest
Carolina at LA Rams (-10)
When picking any matchup other than a Nebraska Cornhusker non-conference game against Arkansas-Little Rock Technical College, it’s never wise to bet the team laying double-digit points and call them a lock.
But I feel like the Rams need to make a statement after being snuffed out like a Jeff Probst Survivor torch each of the past two weeks. If they can't do it at home against a 1-4 team who just fired their head coach and replaced their starting quarterback with the ever-dangerous PJ Walker, then it’s just time to stick a fork in LA.
They’ve lost two in a row. They’re desperate. They have to roll here. I say they will.
Rams 34 Panthers 13
Fox in the Hen House
Denver at LA Chargers (-4.5)
For the life of me, I can't figure out why the Chargers are only giving 4 1/2 points to a team who pretty much averages 9 points per game and displays some form of blatant stupidity every single week. Like, I don't know, constantly throwing from the shotgun inside the 5 yd line, throwing from the shotgun on 4th & 1 inside the 5 yd line, and then throwing from the shotgun on 4th & 1 inside the 5 yd line to the guy in triple coverage instead of the wide open guy screaming like a banshee for the ball.
For the first time since 1997, I did some math: LA is averaging 26 points per game, including 32 ppg in their last two. Denver is scoring points at the same pace as the Houston Astros.
Why is this only a 4 1/2 point spread? Whyyyy?
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| Me, thinking I have this Chargers pick in the bag? |
Looks too good to be true but I’m falling for it. Best case scenario— maybe my reverse jinx powers will equate to Denver turning their season around (insert hysterical laughter here.)
Chargers 23 Broncos 13
You've been Bird Dropped! And flags have been thrown. Ridiculous15 yard penalty coming up.
Season Total Straight Up Winners: 51-28-1
Season Total Against the Spread: 45-35
Lock of the Week Picks: 3-2
Trap Game of the Week: 2-3
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