Shake It Off! The Bird’s Week 11 NFL Picks

Detroit has a two game winning streak. Buffalo has a two game losing streak. Josh Allen all of a sudden looks like Josh Rosen, Justin Fields is breaking all of Michael Vick's QB rushing records, and Colt McCoy just beat John Wolford (who?) to put the defending Super Bowl Champs in the NFC basement.

Click here: What the hell’s going on out there??

No wonder all of our picks suck lately.

Here at the nest The Bird went 5-9 ATS and did no better picking the straight up winners in Week 10, marking the worst single week I’ve had in the past two seasons.

With that kind of .350 winning percentage I now know what it feels like to be the Cincinnati Reds or one of Taylor Swift’s boyfriends for a week, and I’m not fond of being in such company.

Shake it off, Bird!

I’m still +16 Against the Spread on the season, and looking to bank a little coin while building on my 90-59-1 overall record as Week 11 kicks off.

LFG!

Bird’s Eye View 

Tennessee at Green Bay (-3.5)

Both teams got big wins last week, but Green Bay's was a cathartic rally vs. an NFC contender while Tennessee's was against the 1955 Fort Wayne Pistons.

Correlative visual of Tennessee’s offensive
opponent last week, the Denver Broncos. 

I guess, all things being equal, Tennessee won't get away with scoring just 17 points this time around. And I'll take Aaron Rodgers at home vs. Ryan Tannehill on the road every time. 

Packers 24  Titans 17

Philadelphia (-6.5) at Indianapolis

First off, I’d like to congratulate the Colts for their win last week against the Raiders. That was a game between two coaches, one of whom was completely unprepared. The other was Jeff Saturday.

That new coach smell will fade quickly though, as Philly rebounds this week.

Eagles 27  Colts 20

LA Rams (+3.5) at New Orleans

Picking this game is not for the faint of heart. Imagine asking Mr. & Mrs. Menendez who their favorite son was, and you have the right idea. 

“Neither.”

Saints 22  Rams 20

Chicago at Atlanta (-3)

As mentioned above, all of a sudden Justin Fields looks like the love child of Randal Cunningham and Michael Vick. I picked him up about 5 weeks ago in Fantasy, then immediately dropped him the following Tuesday. So of course he does. 

Then again, what good is having Randal Cunningham and Michael Vick for a mom and dad when you can’t even beat the Lions at home? 

Falcons 23  Bears 17

New York Jets (+3.5) at New England

Mac Jones has been, how shall we say, not very good. And Sauce Gardner has basically been the NFL’s version of Chick-fil-A for wide receivers; which is to say none are open on Sundays.

The Jets have a little Ralphie Parker-beats-up-Scut Farkus thing going on right now. They just punk’d the Bills and I have no doubt they want to erase 25 years of wedgies from the chowderheads too.

They may not win, but it’ll be a close divisional game. Ah, what the hell, this is Ralphie Freakin’ Parker we’re talking about!

Jets 23  Patriots 20  OT

Carolina at Baltimore (-13)

This is a line so high Baker Mayfield can’t even see over it.

Tiny baker. Big challenge. 

In a weather game pitting two run-heavy teams you normally take the points, the under, and a nap. But Lamar Jackson is straight cooking right now and Baker Mayfield is straight… bakering. 

I gotta go Baltimore big here.

Ravens 29  Panthers 13

Cleveland (+8.5) at Buffalo

Urgency, refocus, and what would have been 3 feet of snow should have all been at play here for Buffalo. Instead, the game gets moved to Detroit and now we’re all deprived of seeing fat, shirtless men in a blizzard yelling things.

Edge: Cleveland.

Bills 21  Browns 16

Las Vegas (+2.5) at Denver

The only thing clear about these two teams is that they unfortunately are not playing the Houston Texans enough. 

Both have beaten Houston. Both have lost to Indy. Denver beat Jacksonville, and the Raiders lost to Jacksonville. Raiders beat Denver. Rock beats scissors.

You can’t triple stamp a double stamp, Lloyd!
The Broncos and Raiders traveling through the 2022 season.

Since the Raiders just struggled vs. a team with a head coach who was four days into the job, and who’s never coached anything before in his life, I can only assume they’ll find easier treading against a team with an even more incapable coach than that.

History also shows they only need 17 points to be victors this day. 

Raiders 17   Broncos 16

Cincinnati (-3.5) at Pittsburgh

Cincinnati is the hottest of any of the 5-4 teams in the league; while in Pittsburgh a Minkah Fitzpatrick- and Najee Harris-less Steelers squad not fortunate enough to be playing the Saints again makes for a lukewarm feel at best.

Cincinnati is battling back from an 0-2 start to the season, in main part due to a shocking Week 1 loss at home to these very Steelers. It cost The Bird his first “Bet the Nest” loss as a matter of fact.

Well. To that I say: Revenge is a dish best served in all white unis. The Bengals go full-on albino tiger and I’ll watch this game in my Walter White tightie-whities as well.

Bengals 31  Steelers 17

Dallas (-1) at Minnesota 

Last week Minnesota snatched victory from the jaws of defeat, and Dallas snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.

This makes for a tricky diagnosis as Minnesota surely has a bit of a letdown here, right(?)… while Dallas must be eager to avenge a bad loss in a game they had all but won… right(?).

Vegas is as perplexed as I, setting this line essentially as a pk’em. One would think the home field advantage should set the 8-1 Vikes as favorites over the 6-3 ’Boys.

Not so.

Cowboys 28  Vikings 24

Kansas City at LA Chargers (+5)

As badly as the Chargers could use some Rivers-to-Gates right now, and as auto-pilot as the Chiefs are in the AFC West, the fact remains that the last 4 games between these two teams have been decided by 7 pts or less.

I don’t often look too heavily at trends, but something tells me here.

Chiefs 27  Chargers 24

San Francisco (-8) at Arizona

Seldom are the times when an entire team responds better for their backup QB than they do for the regular guy. I mean, don’t tell Drew Bledsoe that, but…

I guess all those Cardinals players really were sick of Kyler’s shit. And it showed!

That being said, did you know that a Colt McCoy led team has never lost to the 49’ers in Mexico? Yep. They are currently 0-0.

But soon to be 0-1.

Niners 30  Cardinals 20

Bet the Nest

Washington (-3) at Houston

Washington is flying high while the Texans endure another week of wondering what exactly their purpose in life is. Like Bill Murray in Groundhog Day, Houston fans roll out of bed this Sunday to live the same shit all over again.

The Houston faithful prepare for
another weekend of Texans football.

In just about every other scenario, I would guard against Washington having a let down after such a signature win last Monday night in Philly.

But not here. Not against Houston. And not in Chase Young’s return from his torn ACL. That presence alone will be motivation enough for the red helmets.

Commanders 22  Texans 17

Fox in the Hen House

Detroit (+3.5) at New York Giants

The Giants, at home, minus anything less than a touchdown against a team like the Lions feels like easy money. 

• Giants are 3rd in rushing; Lions are 31st against the run.
• Justin Fields just ran for 700 yards against the Lions.
• Saquon Barkley is a better running back than Justin Fields.
• Detroit hasn’t won back-to-back-to-back games since the Berlin Wall fell.

And yet…New York has their biggest game of the season four days after this one on Thanksgiving Day, in Dallas. Might they be “looking past” an easy home game against a crappy team?

Total trap. 

Giants 23  Lions 20

Just like those 18 points the Fort Wayne Pistons once dropped in an NBA game… and hopefully Coach Hackett come Monday…so too have you been: (Bird) Dropped!

Season Total Straight Up Winners: 90-59-1

Season Total Against the Spread:  83-67 

Lock of the Week Picks: 6-4

Trap Game of the Week:  3-7