Hallo, Deutschland!: The Bird’s Week 10 NFL Picks

Guten abend! With the NFL in Berlin this week, I figured I’d honor my old German teacher, Frau Dovas; and my college German professor, Herr Kern, with some football forecasting that resembles the work ethic and efficiency of the German people.

Which is really just fancy speak for: this week’s picks were made under the influence of Kölsch beer instead of my traditional Miller Lites and whisky. 

Dieter from SNL’s Sprockets may have also creeped into my reasonings. Lets’s dance!

My secret to handicapping efficiency.

The Bird, aka der vogel, was 8-5 against the spread and 9-4 straight up last week. Given a couple of huge upsets that NO ONE saw coming, it wasn't a bad showing at all. Still, there’s room for improvement in Week 10. Es ist zeit!

Bird’s Eye View 

Atlanta (-2.5) at Carolina

Atlanta is one helluva difficult team to figure out. Just when you think they’re decent, they suck. And just when they start to suck, they’re decent.

Carolina is basically the same, except replace “decent” with “sucks even more.”

Falcons 24  Panthers 14

Seattle (+2.5) at Tampa

If you woulda told me at any moment in time prior to last Sunday that one of these quarterbacks threw the ball 58 times and had a QB Rating of 79 in Week 9, while the other was an efficient 26-for-33 with a QBR of 110; and then told me Tom Brady was the first and Geno Smith was the latter…and then advised that both stat lines basically tell the story of this entire season…

I woulda called you a stooge.

Das ist nicht Tom Brady! Das ist eine booby!

Sadly, I think I’ve run my course of not taking Seattle seriously. That ends today, as the Seahawks have the better team, coach, and quarterback right now.

Also, it turns out Munich is fanatic about something other than Oktoberfest and women with hairy armpits. Yep. Bavaria’s capital is a big Seahawks town. Who knew? But they say this will feel like a home game for the birds.

Seahawks 23  Buccaneers 20

Denver at Tennessee (-2.5)

As I watched last Sunday’s Tennessee-KC game and saw the Titans hanging with the Chiefs despite their third string quarterback who looked as if he graduated from the Tim Tebow School of Throwing Mechanics, I couldn’t help but think how Denver would be getting destroyed in that same game even with a future Hall of Famer at the controls. 

Denver’s not on the same level as Tennessee. Unless—Unless— the Titans do something completely stupid like, oh I don’t know, stop handing Derek Henry the football?

We won’t be so lucky.

Titans 20  Broncos 15

Cleveland at Miami (-3.5)

Tua, Tyreek, and the Miami Dolphins are humming right now.

Cleveland hasn’t really hummed since the days of Bernie Kosar. And even that didn’t really turn out too well.

Dolphins 26  Browns 20

New Orleans (-1) at Pittsburgh

This is one of a few games this weekend that pit two teams who are either incapable or dysfunctional, or just generally crappy, against each other in a matchup with absolutely no impact on the conference playoff pictures unless you are a lucky resident of the NFC South.

Since the Saints are of the latter, and 6-11 just might win you a division, I’ll take them to win what is close to being a pk bet.

Also, I found the perfect headgear for watching this type of game:

Saints and Steelers fans, rest easy!
The Ostrich Head Pillow is the perfect
aid for watching this clash of non-titans.

Saints 19  Steelers 17

Detroit at Chicago (-3)

Bears 24  Lions 21

Minnesota at Buffalo (-3.5)

Now that the election deniers, democracy “savers,” senate seaters, and gubernatorials have all had their orgy of fun at our expense, Bills-Vikings is now the single biggest battle that America has its eye on this second week in November. 

Thank God.

It remains to be seen if Josh Allen’s elbow is ok, and if he ends up sidelined I am likely to edit this pick on Sunday, but for now, I’ll take the Bills minus the generous 3.5 points (which has been bought down from 6.5 with the aforementioned question mark surrounding Allen’s bum wing). Buyer beware. 

Bills 27  Vikings 21

Jacksonville at Kansas City (-9.5)

Jacksonville just won for the first time in 7 weeks, but it came against the 1976 Bucs— I mean the Las Vegas Raiders— so we can’t put much stock into it.

Kansas City should handle their business at home.

Chiefs 31  Jaguars 17

Indianapolis at Las Vegas (-4.5)

This is a matchup between the team who just fired their coach and the team who still needs to fire their coach.

Normally I’d take the points here, citing my theories that teams with interim coaches usually play inspired ball; and the Raiders can’t be trusted to beat the dust out of a floor rug right now. 

But gawd this Colts’ offense is putrid. Putrid I tells ya.

Raiders 24  Colts 14

Arizona at LA Rams (-1.5)

All I know is we’ve reached the point in the season where Kyler Murray’s Napoleon Complex is kicking in.

I wonder if Murray knows that Hopkins is better than him?

The Cardinals QB seems to always be yelling at someone, be it opposing fans, his head coach, or his star wide receiver. I can’t imagine being married to this chick.

The Rams are reeling just as bad, but at least they seem cohesive. I’ll take the home team to win by more than the 1+ spread.

Rams 31  Cardinals 28

LA Chargers at San Francisco (-7)

If the Bolts have to navigate against this defense without Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, it is not going to go as well as it did last week vs. Atlanta.

San Fran has had two weeks to rest, prepare, and further indoctrinate Christian McCaffrey into the game plan.

It seems like a lot to give for what feels like a shootout type of game, but I’ll lean on the Niners to win by more than a touch.

49’ers 33   Chargers 24

Washington (+11) at Philadelphia

Okay, so the Eagles are 8-0. But they cost me a “Bet the Nest” pick last week and their baseball brethren also screwed me on some World Series stuff. 

So, to those fans who boo Santa Claus, cancer-stricken children, and Cowboys players laying paralyzed at midfield… allow me to point out:

• Philly's 8 wins are against: 1) the 2-6 Lions, 2) Kirk Cousins in prime time, 3) Carson Wentz, 4) Jacksonville, 5) Arizona without Deandre Hopkins, 6) Dallas without Dak, 7) the armpit of Pennsylvania Steelers, and 8) the 1-win Houston Texans.

So there. You guys actually kinda suck. I'll take Washington to cover here.

Eagles 30  Commanders 20

Bet the Nest

Houston at New York Giants (-5.5)

The G-Men return home after a humbling defeat in Seattle; Houston stays on the road after sucking butt in Philly. As a general rule in life, being humbled is always better than sucking butt.

Pick New York and sleep well.

Giants 23  Texans 9

Fox in the Hen House

Dallas (-5) at Green Bay 

Detroit just found out how rewarding it is to play against nature's fastest wilting flower: the Green Bay Packers. 

I’m not sure at what point the cheeseheads plug in Jordan Love and prep for their future, but it feels like the time is near.

Having said all that, this game feels like a total trap. I’m nervous laying the 5 points, but the eye test tells me Dallas should roll here. Clearly, though…

Cowboys 27  Packers 20

And just like that, now iz zee time on zer bloggin’ ven vee dance! 

Dieter Sprocket doing the Griddy.

You’ve been Bird Dropped! Auf wiedersehen!

Season Total Straight Up Winners: 84-51-1

Season Total Against the Spread:  78-58

Lock of the Week Picks: 5-4

Trap Game of the Week:  3-6