Saturday, September 23, 2023

Saturday Didn’t Age Well: The Bird’s Week 3 NFL Picks… plus one more.

Welp. If you had the Under on which week The Bird lashes out on the sorry state of the Denver Broncos, you are sitting pretty my friend. Sitting very pretty.

That being said…  I am in far too good of a mood after going 4-0 against the spread last week to allow Vance Joseph’s look of a soft, 2-deep safety zone on 3rd & 2 to ruin my vibe. 

No siree. I’m putting 8 in the box and daring Week 3 to try me. Let’s go!


Chicago at Kansas City (-12.5)

This is a shit-ton of points to give, until you remember it’s the Bears you’re giving them to.  

One team’s quarterback is the most talented State Farm spokesperson ever, while the other is rocketing towards becoming the most talented State Farm employee ever.

Justin Fields this season when given
 a clean pocket and open receivers. 

He’ll be selling insurance in Joliet, IL if this keeps up. The Chiefs get an easy one at home. 

Chiefs 34  Bears 17


Denver at Miami (-6.5)

Russell Wilson has been made fun of aplenty in this space, but he’s actually been pretty damn good of late and in Week 2 kinda resembled ca. 2014 Seattle Russ. It’s maddening. I mean, he’s the 4th ranked QB in the league through two weeks, for Pete's sake (not Carroll). 

Russell Wilson is the 4th ranked QB thru Week 2.
Tua Tagovailoa is ranked 7th. 

Unfortunately though, Denver’s defense has a knack for making guys like Sam Howell, Terry McClaurin, and Brian Robinson look like Joe Theisman, Art Monk, and John Riggins. For the love of grown-men-who-dress-up-like-hogs. Tua is gonna look like Goddamn Dan Marino and his receivers might as well be the U.S. Olympic Track Team.  

Two things I know going into this one:
1- Vic Fangio has some shit up his sleeve. He probably spent all week in his mad scientist’s lab concocting some defensive mastery using ingredients from that fanny pack he always sports. Look at the sacks in the above graphic. Yikes. Here comes Chubb. 
2- It’s the dreaded, east coast early kickoff for our heroes in orange. Which, my entire life (sans for 1997) means they are about to have a turd-in-the-punch-bowl kind of game. And we are mighty used to those these days.

In no world do these two things go well together. 

Dolphins 27  Broncos 17


Dallas (-12.5) at Arizona

Via their local United Way program, the Arizona Cardinals visited a small orphanage in Mexico this week.

“It was sad to see the looks of apathy and hopelessness on their faces,” said Luis, age 11. 

Gimme the Cowboys.

Dallas 29  Arizona 9


CU Buffs (+21) at Oregon Ducks

Look. I don’t know if CU will win this game or not. If I trust the pundits... probably not. But I do know they are going to give themselves a chance.

Twenty-one points feels like a disrespect of Henry Blackburn proportions. Three touchdowns? To the nation’s most efficient passing offense as ran by perhaps the Heisman Trophy front runner?  Is Joey Harrington or Dan Fouts playing this Saturday for the Ducks?

Here's why this will be close enough to bet the Buffaloes:
CU's last-minute, come from behind double OT win in last Saturday’s Rocky Mountain Showdown scared people. "America" saw CU “struggle” to beat a Mountain West team at home, when just two weeks ago they watched Oregon win a non-conference game 81-7. That's what Power 5 teams are supposed to do anytime they are not playing each other. Add in the Travis Hunter effect. The two, hand-in-hand, Viagra'd this line 14 points after the futures had Oregon -7 just ten days ago.

Bet the Buffs. The cover is there. Good Lord and Sal Aunese up in Heaven, dare I say the upset is there?

Indulge me: What if CU gets themselves into a TCU-like shootout and it just so happens, at the end of the day, they have the better quarterback and playmaker? What if black & gold speed trumps green & yellow size? 

Vegas has the Over/Under for this at 70. Seventy! Which means, posting Oregon at -21 suggests the Ducks are gonna have to score like 50 points just to cover. Which also means, if you trust CU can score... a shootout is coming.

Watch my Buffs go into Autzen Stadium and win this thing. Then the roof is really gonna get torn off the mothersucker.  —Parliament.

CU 39  Oregon 38 

Shedeur Sanders and his band of play-making ruffians.
Wait a minute- being told that's George Clinton and Parliament.

Tear the roof offWe're gonna tear the roof off the mother suckerTear the roof off the suckerTear the roof offWe're gonna tear the roof off the mother suckerTear the roof off the sucker
Oww, we want the funk, give up the funkOww, we need the funk, we gotta have the funk!


Last Week Straight Up Winners: 3-1

Last Week Against the Spread:  4-0

Season Total Straight Up Winners: 4-4

Season Total Against the Spread:  5-3

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