Blueprints for Success: The Bird’s Week 4 NFL Picks

What’s the old saying, “Death, taxes, and the Lions finding new and heartbreaking ways to depress their fans?”

Setting aside reliable news such as that, some interesting developments are taking place in this young season. And none are as encouraging as the blueprint that has been drawn up in back-to-back weeks by Kansas City's opponents. 

The Ravens and Chargers have done the exact same thing in consecutive weeks to the Chiefs: they went for it with the game on the line. YES!!!

This type of boldness is EXACTLY how you beat teams that you can’t otherwise stop when your defense trots back out with a three point lead and :36 seconds to kill.  Just ask Detroit. 

When the other quarterback only needs thirty seconds to move 60 yards and erase the 39 yard field goal you just "settled for” moments ago, your odds of winning are no better than if you had just gone for it to begin with!  So eschew the pussy-foot field goals and stop giving Mahomes (or Rodgers or Brady or Jackson, et.al.) the football back!

The Ravens and Chargers place some very important blueprints in this yellow tube for the rest of the league to review.

 

Not since that time Greg Brady was entrusted to deliver Mr. Brady's designs to his boss across town has there been a more important set of plans. Week 4 is here... fun times ahead!

Jacksonville (+7.5) at Cincinnati

The Bengals are playing like a team that believes, and now they get Jacksonville at home in a rare prime time game for the Queen City. Any normal red-blooded American should assume Cincy pummels the Jags tonight. 

You know what that means. Time for the real Bengals to show up! Cincinnati is 10-33 in prime time games in the last twenty years. I don’t know what else to tell ya other than a .303 winning % is not the kind of warm fuzzy The Bird is looking for in order to bet on an easy win for the home team.

It’s scary as hell anytime one says “Bet the Jags” but I think Jacksonville is the play here, getting more points than the Bengals can be trusted to cover once the sun goes down.

Bengals 27  Jaguars 20

Detroit (+3) at Chicago

The Lions snatched defeat from the jaws of victory last week in the most historic of ways, so really they should be coming off a win here. The Bears meanwhile got Justin Fields sacked 9 times en route to amassing 1 total yard of passing offense as Matt Nagy’s squad has basically looked inept in all facets.

I'm inclined to lean towards the underdogs in what should be a gross misrepresentation of football all around. I have no strong feel for it though because both teams seem remedial on all levels.  

Lions 17 Bears 16 

Matt Nagy draws up a play for the Bears offense.

New York Giants (+7.5) at New Orleans

It might be time to take this Saints defense seriously, and against an anti-juggernaut offense like the Giants that alone seems like enough to bet on the black and gold here.

But… 

Much like my reasoning on the Thursday Night game, 7 1/2 sure seems ambitious for a team who uses their best player only some of the time and has been as Jekyll and Hyde as the Saints have. I'll cautiously pick the Giants to play with enough pride to keep it under eight points.

Saints 27 Giants 23

Kansas City (-7) at Philadelphia

Kansas City has a losing record for the first time since Week 6 of 2015. You think they’re gonna stand for this?  

If Dallas can put up 41 on the Eagles then surely the Chieftans can score 80. I'm picking KC as I quietly keep exacting my reverse jinx prowess on Denver’s divisional rivals.

Chiefs 41 Eagles 31

Houston (+17) at Buffalo

Houston looks like they just might be the worst team in the league, which is a monumental statement considering there's a team called the Jets out there.

I also think Buffalo, coming off of two ass whoopings in a row for which they put up 35 and 41 points of offense, respectively, is as hot as any team in the land.

But for some reason -a backdoor cover, maybe?- I feel inclined to take the Texans to only get creamed by less than 18 this day.

Bills 38 Texans 23

Carolina at Dallas (-4)

Carolina’s Pyrrhic victory over Houston last Thursday came at great cost. Losing your best player and arguably the best player in the entire league who doesn’t play quarterback is never a good thing. 

Dallas meanwhile looks like a team that has things figured out and is one Tom Brady comeback away from being undefeated. Take Dallas minus the points.

Cowboys 27 Panthers 21

Cleveland at Minnesota (+2)

After losing Week 1 to the Chiefs, Cleveland responded by clobbering two very bad teams at home.

Minnesota, by contrast, opened with two unlucky losses on the road and then returned home to clobber a very solid team; doing so without their best player even.

I’m actually surprised the home team is not favored here, so this feels to me like a trap of sorts. Nonetheless, I like Minnesota as they continue to right the Longship.

Vikings 27  Browns 24

Indianapolis (+2) at Miami 

Vegas knows everyone is scared to bet on a team who’s quarterback has sprained both ankles and would probably sprain a third if he could, which is why I suspect the team who lost 35-0 the last time they played at home and who has a former Colt backup playing QB is favored here. Could also just be that 1-2 trumps 0-3 when it comes to setting the line between flailing teams.

The Colts however, have had a tougher schedule to start the season, and have actually shown some moxie. They hung tough against the Titans and are the only team who has almost beaten the Rams.

I’ll take the horseshoes in a minor upset here.

Colts 24 Dolphins 22

Tennessee (-6.5) at New York Jets

Good news for the Jets: with only 2 INTs last weekend, Zach Wilson cut his turnover production in half from the previous week. This is a sign of great progress for the young lad!

Bad news for the Jets: everything else. 

Tennessee wins and covers on the road. 

Titans 30 Jets 20

Washington at Atlanta (+1)

I was brutally honest in last week’s post about my self-immolation whenever I bet games involving the Falcons. At this point, every attempt I've made to assess the state of Atlanta’s football team has followed the same rules as trusting a fart: If you have to force it, it's probably shit.

Eff you, Atlanta. I’m convinced whatever I pick here, you’ll do precisely the opposite. Just for that I’ll pick you guys to win and cover. 

Falcons 26  Football Team 24

Arizona (+4) at Los Angeles Rams 

I know I said a couple of weeks ago that I was riding the Kyler Murray train until I saw a reason not to. I also know you never walk away from a heater on the craps table. This is a real Sophie’s Choice kinda game for me.

The Rams look white hot if not unbeatable, and the Cardinals flirted with the idea of losing to the dog butt Jaguars last week. So there’s that. 

All signs point to a Rams win, but the spread has dropped from 7.5 to 4 this week as clearly bettors are liking the Red Birds to keep it close.  I imagine this being a shootout game involving a last minute score, so I'll bet the Cardinals plus the points even though LA wins the day.

Rams 34  Cardinals 31

Seattle (+3) at San Francisco

In this week’s sign that the apocalypse is upon us, the Legion of Doom is dead last in three very key defensive statistics (YPG allowed, 1st downs allowed, Time of Possession) after having played Indy, Tennessee and Minnesota. As if that wasn’t bad enough, they now have San Fran and the LA Rams up next. 

Yikes. The rare air of 1-4 seems very likely for the Seabags if they don’t find a win in one of these next two games. You absolutely know Pete Carol understands that if this game is not a must win, then next week sure as hell is. And Seattle would much rather find their way to a W against a beatable Niners team this week than having to find a way to stop the Rams’ offense next week. Plus, Russell Wilson always plays well in the Bay Area. 

Seahawks 27  49’ers 24

Pittsburgh at Green Bay (-6.5)

Green Bay is rolling while Pittsburgh appears to be folding faster than Superman on laundry day. I have no idea what is happening in the Steel City but I'm enjoying it.

I fully expect the Packers to keep their trajectory. Take them minus the points for the win.

Packers 30 Steelers 17

Baltimore at Denver (-1)

I'd like to give Baltimore credit for being 2-1, with that miraculous finish by the Raiders on opening night as the only thing keeping them from being 3-0. At the same time, it's hard to ignore the fact that they have performed two consecutive miracles of their own and really could be 0-3.

Conversely, the Broncos are 3-0 but due to the nature of their opponents, I can't seem to convince myself of how good they truly are. For now they're kinda like a joyrider who’s blowing through intersections, high on the rush, and oblivious to the trouble up ahead. Blissfully unaware, they think they’re cool because they’re making great time.

How the Broncos are feeling...

Ravens, Raiders, Browns & Cowboys up ahead.

This week we will find out just how good the Broncos are. At least in terms of lining up with one of the big boys in the AFC. Guess I'll grip the 'oh shit' handle and take Denver with my eyes closed. Call me a homer, I’m just along for the ride.

Broncos 23  Ravens 21

Tampa Bay (-7) at New England

In 410 A.D. Rome was overrun by the Goths, and the mighty Roman Empire was never the same. If it hasn’t already started, the fall of Belichick officially begins this Sunday as Tom Brady marches on Gillette Stadium, sets the all time passing record, and lays torch to the empire while the whole world watches.

Tampa wins and covers.

Buccaneers 41  Patriots 21

Las Vegas at Los Angeles Chargers (-3)

The Raiders are 3-0 for the first time in 19 years and they’ve needed all 14 quarters in three games to get there. 

I’m weary of a let down from the Chargers as last week was an emotional win in which their collective wad was surely blown. Setting aside my fears that the Bolts may come out flat, I have to remind myself that I hate the Raiders. 

Therefore, L.A. is the pick.

Chargers 29  Raiders 24

We’re nearing the quarter pole, my friends. Keep applying the whip!

Last Week Straight Up Winners:  12-4 

Current Season Total Straight Up Winners: 35-13

Last Week Against the Spread: 9-7

Current Season Total Against the Spread:  27-20-1

The Lucky, The Unlucky, and The Blessed: The Bird’s Week 3 Picks

Last week started out gangbusters!  Hot damn, by the time my Donkeys were polishing off the Jagwads I was sitting pretty at 7-3 against the spread through the first ten games of the weekend.

I was flying high, winning all my pools, and loving me some fun times watching NFL Football.

Then the late games commenced.

 

Footage of The Bird working on a pretty nice little Week 2 last Sunday morning. Then the late games happened.

 

What can I say? Time to rebuild…. Week 3 is here! 

Carolina (-7.5) at Houston

Thanks to Tyrod Taylor's injury the Texans are now left with some schlub named Davis Mills to run the show because Donald Rumsfeld apparently makes their personnel decisions. Houston has nothing but unknown unknowns at this point to put under center, and it’s only Week 3.

Carolina, meanwhile, has looked pretty solid against one very crappy team and one very iffy one.  Since Houston is both iffy and crappy, I will bet the Panthers here despite the enormity of a 7+ point spread on the road.

Baltimore (-7.5) at Detroit

Just like the growing amount of Americans content on breadlines and free handouts despite record-setting job openings, Baltimore lands in Detroit this weekend looking for some stimulus to supplement last Sunday’s big win against the Chiefs. 

Welp. There’s no freer giveaway than the Lions showing up on your schedule! 

Baltimore moves to 2-1 this weekend and beats what feels like a difficult spread for any road team to cover. Until you remember it’s Detroit.

The Ravens, just off the team bus and arriving at Ford Field.

 

Atlanta at New York Giants (-3)

Some things simply cease to change in my behavior no matter how ugly the lessons.  

Still drinking alcohol despite the unpleasantness of September 6th, 1996? Yep.  Using bungee cords even though I almost lost the ability to reproduce children in an "oops the hook slipped" accident years ago? I ain’t scared. Still betting on the Falcons after being burned in the ass over and over and over by these A-holes? You know it. 

I am done with Atlanta.  Lesson learned. Matt Ryan looks more like Matt Cassell and New York actually appears to me to be a team of do-gooders and try-harders, if nothing else. The Giants get off the schneid and cover the points. Beware however, there’s a 87.9% chance the dirty birds still find a way to %!@$? me.

New Orleans at New England (-3)

Despite my pick last week against the spread, deep down in places I don't talk about at parties, I knew the Patriots weren't going to fall to 0-2. Had they done so, they would be no better than the Jaguars in the AFC standings. And that would just be downright apocalyptic.

In retrospect though, 5.5 points was indeed way too small to even consider the Jets. For shame.

If Bill Belichick has hung his hat on anything not named Tom Brady during the 104 years he has coached, its that his teams are very skilled at making young and/or unproven quarterbacks look terrible.  I suspect this weekend will be no different, especially since Jameis got his groove back last week in the turnover column. Alvin Kamara is a wildcard, but the Pats are my pick.

Cincinnati at Pittsburgh (-3)

Joe Burrow threw three consecutive passes in Week 2 that were picked off.  Three. Three! Consecutive! As if that wasn’t ominous enough for the striped helmets, Pittsburgh laying a turd and getting embarrassed at home after such a huge opening win in Buffalo is exactly what Cincinnati didn't need going into Week 3.

Now. This is where The Bird would normally wax poetic about how an extra-motivated Pittsburgh rallies and destroys a perennial division doormat. 

Except…  Ben Roethlisberger has looked every bit of his 39 years of age, and all of a sudden moves with the same swiftness as John Daly heading towards a salad bar.  #7 does not look good and as of blog posting time (Thurs), was questionable as he deals with a phantom pectoral issue for which he says he can’t even recall when it happened. (He’s playing coy.  I suspect he probably tweaked it reaching awkwardly for a Big Mac.)

Hmmm. I'm gonna "take" the Steelers here, even though it feels more like not wanting to take Cincy. Or perhaps it's just a conditioned response from 30+ years of the Bengals sucking. In any instance, avoid this game. If you must bet on it, keep an eye on the QB situation come Sunday. Pittsburgh might get a boost if Mason Rudolph has to start. I suspect the line may move some more too.

Indianapolis at Tennessee (-5)

Aside from some very shoddy luck my best friend had in his teen years, I don’t know that I’ve ever seen someone sprain both ankles at the same time, on the same play. But thanks to some driveway basketball in 1988 and Carson Wentz last Sunday, I can’t say that anymore. 

Carson Wentz in the Colts' training room.

After watching Derek Henry run through Seattle like a pitcher of Mexican tap water, I'm willing to accept that Tennessee's Week 1 stinker was just a case of the collywobbles. I think the Titans are a safe and suggested pick this Sunday.

Washington at Buffalo (-7)

The line on this one opened at Bills by 10 and has been bought down to 7 by Thursday night. Aside from some very sick people with a Taylor Heinicke fetish, I can't figure out why bettors are liking the visitors here.

Buffalo lost their home opener. Then they went on the road and kicked the ass of a divisional opponent 35-0. The Bills will not lose their second straight home game and they won’t keep Washington hanging around either. Take Buffalo by more than a touch.

 

LA Chargers at Kansas City (-6.5)

The loser here falls to 1-2 and I just don’t see any scenario where it’s the Chiefs. Justin Herbert is winging the ball around like Dan Fouts from my youth, but he's also having some early season interception issues and if there's any team in the league you can't give extra possessions to, it's Kansas City. 

KC got a rare taste of heartbreak last week and for that, I think they respond hugely. Chiefs are my pick to win by at least a touchdown.

Arizona (-7.5) at Jacksonville

The Jaguars won last year’s season opener and have since lost 17 straight games. Meanwhile, the Cardinals' offense is starting to look a lot like Kansas City-Desert Edition.  Not much else to dissect here. Make it 18 straight L's for the Jags.

Chicago at Cleveland (-7)

If you ask me, the football Gods peered down on the Land of Lake Erie last weekend and somehow bore tiny little lights of goodwill through the haze and stench of the Cuyahoga.  

An injured Tyrod Taylor couldn’t finish last week’s game right when the Browns were reeling and looked as if they might be on their way to a surprise loss. At roughly the same time 300 miles to the west in Chicago, Andy Dalton suffered an inexplicable bone bruise on a play in which he didn’t even get touched. 

Now it's true, these are not Virgin Mary statues weeping tears or Joseph of Cupertino type miracles. But for a football team and fan base that has suffered the emotional torment of Red Right 88, The Drive, The Fumble, Art Modell, plus a revolving door of 314 shitty quarterbacks ever since Bernie Kosar retired, even the atheists in the Dawg Pound are raising thankful hands to the heavens.

Cleveland wins and covers against a rookie QB making his long awaited first start in a place where they throw milk bones at you. 

New York Jets at Denver (-10.5)

Last week I took the Jets to cover under the pretense that you should never wager on a rookie QB on the road in the NFL. Well, it turns out the caveat is: unless that road leads to stinky old stadiums in New Jersey and your opponent wears green tights. 

This is a BIG spread for a Denver team that hasn’t sniffed the playoffs in half a decade, but a proud franchise with a historically awesome home field advantage and a quarterback with a 120 QBR for the first time since they ran that “Omaha” play on every down should all come together in a raucous home opener. That, and their opponent is the Jets. 

One team is averaging 25 points per game and the other is averaging 10. Simple math supports this bet. I’ll take Denver.

Miami at Las Vegas (-3.5)

Miami lost their quarterback. Then they lost their right tackle. Then a wide receiver. Then they lost to the Bills 35-0.

I don’t think I'd trust Miami with my car keys right now.

Much to my chagrin the Raiders keep it rolling against a hurting Dolphins team who is traveling 4 hours west into the Pacific time zone for a game against perhaps the hottest team in the league so far. 

For the life of me I can’t figure out why the line is only three and a half. Must be a trap. I’m taking the bait.

Seattle at Minnesota (+2.5)

As recent bad luck goes, only those Washington fans sitting underneath the ruptured sewer line a couple of weeks ago and a woman in Bolivia who found a finger in her cheeseburger last Monday can out-claim the Vikings’ bad fortune this September.

Minnesota would most likely be 2-0 if not for an unlucky fumble in OT in Week 1, and some comical kicking buffoonery last week in Arizona:

Click this link to see: funniest play call ever

Over shadowed in all of this is the fact that Kirk Cousins is playing his balls off, completing 72% of his passes, and the Vikings are averaging over 400ypg so far this season. No 0-2 team deserves this, even if they do wear purple. 

Russell Wilson has never lost to Minnesota, but if you believe in the Law of Averages or think Dalvin Cook can run the way Derek Henry did last week, Minnesotans won’t need to drink from Odin’s horn or don their lucky Mjölnirs to see a win here. At the very least, they’ll cover the number as home dogs.

Tampa Bay at LA Rams (+1.5)

This game opened as a 'pk' spread but by mid-week the line had shifted towards Tampa; clearly the result of Americans from coast to coast woo'ing and eating from the spoon of those tireless Tom Brady lovers on ESPN and such.

I love the spot LA is in here. Tampa has avoided any Super Bowl hangover in small part by having their first two games at home, and in large part by playing those games against pansy-asses like the Cowboys and Falcons. This, by contrast, is a very difficult road test against a team favored by many to win the NFC and who really seem to have their shit together.  

It's also worth noting the Rams have acted and looked like a team that is eager to prove their relevancy; running somewhat of a sprint out of the gates.  Tampa, meanwhile, like all Champions with a GOAT calmly leading the way, understand that the season is a marathon and not a sprint at all. 

A loss doesn’t phase the World Champs much less register on the litmus paper the same way it would for the Rams this early in the campaign. And, if the goal is to be in the lead 10% of the way through, you can’t go wrong betting on the anxious-to-succeed sprinter in Week 3.

Green Bay (+3) at San Francisco 

It only took 7 quarters, but finally the Packers as we know them have showed up for the 2021 season. And I'm starting to think Aaron Rodgers is either hopped up on pain killers, or the effects of dating Shailene Woodley are finally taking effect. 

Rodgers looks like the guy who's always asking to borrow ten bucks and saying, "I'll get you back next week, man.”

Meanwhile, in San Fran, Jimmy Garoppolo continues his Brian Griese-like career by completing 25 passes for 180 yards every week while looking like he has a Maximo Magazine photo shoot afterward.

I’ll put some coin on Aaron and the Packers here as underdogs. Get you back next week.

Philadelphia (+3.5) at Dallas

Ok, I’m just gonna say it: Assessing NFC East matchups is about as thrilling for me as picking between Sandia Sand, Tuscan Beige, or Sun Kissed Taupe for which color to paint the walls in my rec room.  The division sucks eggs. The teams suck eggs. And already by Week 3 there’s little doubt in my mind we’re all just watching to see which 7-9-1 or 8-9 team conquers the East and wins the right to get pummeled in the Wild Card Round by Green Bay or Seattle.

That being said, every time two of them get together (it was NYG & Washington last week), the game is always closely contested. Not exciting. Just closely contested.

On the merits of that thought process alone, I’ll assume this game will come right down to the wire and be settled by less than 4 points either way. Gimme the Eagles. They go better with the trim.

Until next week, my friends… stay healthy. 

Last Week Straight Up Winners:  13-3

Current Season Total Straight Up Winners: 23-9

Last Week Against the Spread: 9-7

Current Season Total Against the Spread:  18-13-1

Get. Out! The Bird's Week 2 NFL Picks

Welp. Week 1 is officially in the books!

Record-wise it wasn’t the best of weeks, but considering some really promising teams looked awful (Green Bay, Tennessee) and some really awful teams looked promising (Houston, Cincinnati), one can’t complain too much about coming out of Week 1 in the black.

Some intriguing teams looked even more intriguing after Week 1 (Arizona, Dallas, both LA’s), while others looked absolutely less intriguing after Week 1 (Minnesota, Indianapolis, Atlanta). And then there were a few teams who looked to be exactly what we expected (Tampa Bay, Kansas City, San Francisco).

Joe Burrow and Carson Wentz appear to be healthy again, Jerry Jeudy and Ryan Fitzpatrick sadly saw their names added to the injured reserve, and for the first time in three weeks no Baltimore running backs tore their ACL.  Meanwhile Russell Wilson looked like the old Russell Wilson, Aaron Rodgers looked nothing like the old Aaron Rodgers, And Teddy Bridgewater looked like Daniel Kaluuya from the movie Get Out!

Doppelganger jokes aside, Teddy B. looked very sharp in his Broncos debut.

Uncanny resemblances notwithstanding, Bronco fans have to be excited after watching Teddy Two-Gloves last Sunday. His numbers weren’t jaw-dropping, but the way in which he played was about as close to perfection as we’ve seen in these parts in a very long time.  TB5 spread the ball around to 9 different receivers, delivered with accuracy, and even launched a couple of long bombs… which we were told he was incapable of doing. Perhaps best of all, on several occasions #5 extended the play, and he was clutch on multiple 3rd and 4th down conversions.  It was only one week, but…

This is our guy?  Get out!

Time to build on last week’s momentum and keep picking winners.  On to Week 2!

 

New York Giants (+3.5) at Washington

New York looked stifled at best last week in what essentially was a bed crapper against Denver at home. Not to be outdone in matters of crapping themselves though, Washington wants everyone to know that they are perfectly adept at making a mess of things too:

Click here to see: shit happens!

Yep. Not only did starting quarterback Ryan Fitzpatrick land on the IR with a subluxation of his hip, but the upper level sewage line started raining down on the Football Team’s dearly beloved shortly after.  Honestly, I'm not sure which was the added insult.

So.  Even though Daniel Jones continues to show he’s good for at least one critical fumble per game, he somehow has managed to go 4-0 against the ‘Skins/Football Team while being 3-18 against everyone else. I could suggest here that he owns Washington, but really I just can't shake the feeling that dislocated hips and shitters leaking down onto your fan base are two unmistakable signs that this is not going to be your year. Sorry, Football Team.

I’ll bet the G-Men to keep it within the spread, if not win altogether. 

 

Denver at Jacksonville (+6)

As optimistic as I felt last Sunday night when Melvin Gordon ripped off that 70 yarder late in the 4th to officially make it a blowout, I remain steadfastly pessimistic when it comes to 11am games on the east coast for my Donkeys. It’s just the way it goes and always has for this team. 

I’ll predict an ugly win for Denver, but a final score closer than six points makes Jacksonville my pick against the spread. Something in the neighborhood of 17-12 and a related spike in my blood pressure seem very plausible here.  Almost predictable. 

 

Houston (+13) at Cleveland

Did everyone see the new and improved Browns last week? No, I’m not talking about the extra chutzpah and savvy they brought to KC for 52 minutes of a 60 minute game in which a botched snap by the punter -on their only punt of the game!- may have been all that kept them from notching last weekend’s biggest upset. 

I’m talking about Cleveland’s “new uniforms” of course! That’s right. The Brownies unveiled newer and sleeker unis that the organization says “pay tribute” to the club’s history in this, their 75th anniversary season. 

You probably didn’t notice because they generally look just like the previous 75 years of Browns uniforms. Gotta hand it to them though. Cleveland’s idea of “Before & After” is inspiringly similar to my dieting “successes”:

Cleveland's new uniforms (R) as compared to their old ones (L).

 

Anyhow. Another thing that hasn’t changed: unless it’s 1946 or Jim Brown is toting the rock, never ever EVER bet on Cleveland to cover a spread this big. Houston is the pick.

 

Buffalo (-3) at Miami

Coming off their big road win to start the season, I fully expect all 900 of Miami's fans —plus that big teal tarp they hide the upper level seats under— to be in attendance for this one.

This might have been a tougher game for me to pick had Buffalo held serve and won last week, but since the Bills lost and now see their season of high hopes staring ominously at an 0-2 start, I fully expect them to circle the wagons.  Buffalo wins and covers. 

 

New England at New York Jets (+6)

I simply cannot envision a world in which the Patriots are 0-2 and staring up from the basement in their division. Clearly, Bill Belichick is no longer cheating hard enough.

A sort of constitutional vibe and a quarter century of recent AFC East history almost demands a Patriots win this Sunday. Newly born babies, nuns, nurses, first responders, war heroes, Betty White, and all else that is good and pure in this world surely deserve the opposite. This is too much.

I feel dirty, but I’m picking the Pats here to win and cov— Wait! Wait…

I almost broke one of my own cardinal rules:  never bet on a rookie QB on the road.  New England may still cheat and win but I’ll take the Jets to cover.

Cincinnati at Chicago (-2.5)

People who switch to Geico are happy. How happy, Jimmy? Happier than Andy Dalton that this game isn’t being played in Cincinnati.

Two entire cities are convinced ol’ Andy isn’t a proper answer for NFL quarterback, even though the poor sap is being completely shackled by play calling that’s more conservative than an Amish fashion show.

 

Top: Chicago's play calling.

Bottom: The rest of the league.

Chicago’s gonna win this game, probably because of something Justin Fields does, but we'll call it Dalton’s Revenge either way.  Take the Bears, minus the points.

 

San Francisco (-3) at Philadelphia

I did not see that coming last week from the Eagles. That being said and with all due respect, San Francisco has better things to do than spend their first two weekends of fall in Detroit and Philly.

The Niners make short work of this one.

 

New Orleans at Carolina (+3.5)

Jameis Winston headed into this season as the only player in NFL history to throw 30 TD & 30 INT in the same season, then in Week 1 promptly became the first player to ever toss 5 touchdowns in a game while throwing for less than 150 yards.

I am not a statistician, but I am an American voter and taxpayer, so I know all about how fuzzy math works. Obviously Winston is poised to throw 5 interceptions this week just to make everything right in the world. 

Carolina covers as home underdogs. In fact I think they win the game straight up. 

LA Rams (-3.5) at Indianapolis

Matthew Stafford showed last Sunday that waking up on game day to play quarterback in LA and not Detroit is akin to Robert Downey Jr. swapping a life of hand guns, heroin and cocaine for being Tony Stark instead.  Everything’s coming up Matty!

 

Left: Stafford's time in Detroit.    Right: Stafford's arrival in L.A.

 

The Rams looked damn potent in the air last week and it was evident from all of the smiles; from the owner, to the fans, to that blonde NBC mistakenly called Mrs. Stafford, to the players themselves, and right down to Sean McVay who skipped up and down the sidelines with childish glee all game: LA has found their Iron Man. 

I’m picking them here as a team with tons of rise on the horizon.

Las Vegas (+6.5) at Pittsburgh

Last Monday night’s Raider victory was one of the more implausible finishes to a game I’ve seen in a long time. The fact that they survived every attempt made to “Raider it up” is a good omen I suppose. I mean, besides somehow not scoring after having a 1st and Goal from the 1-foot line, they then won on a TD lob later in OT because no one could find the kicker after Gruden had called timeout to set up a game winning field goal.  Only the Raiders.

I learned long ago that good omens are not to be ignored however, and I feel a strong follow up is looming.

Likewise, Pittsburgh shocked most of the country last weekend with an impressive road win against a team many have picked to make a Super Bowl run this year. A natural let down is brewing in this scenario, I feel.  The Raiders keep this one closer than a touchdown, and I may even pick them to win it outright in an upset.

 

Minnesota at Arizona (-3.5)

When I drafted Kyler Murray two weeks ago to be the stalwart leader of my Fantasy Football team, I was almost positive I had just jinxed him into a sophomore slump of epic proportions. It’s just the way I roll.  Then the little guy accounted for 5 TDs and shredded Tennessee like a stack of old tax returns. It was glorious!

I’m riding the K Train down every track I can until I see a reason not to.  Take the Red Birds minus the points this Sunday.

Tennessee (+6.5) at Seattle

When I drafted Julio Jones two weeks ago to be the lead wide receiver of my Fantasy Football team, I was almost positive I had just jinxed him into a…

Well, I knew I was screwing with someone’s season by drafting them. 

The Titans are a much better team than they showed last weekend, and they’ll need more than three catches for 29 yards from Julio this Sunday to prove so. I’m always weary of picking against Seattle at home, but I’ll give a slight lean to Tennessee here, getting six and a half. 

 

Atlanta (+12.5) at Tampa Bay

In my "Matchup that I gave 90 seconds of thought to before sending out my picks for the week" pick, I think I'll play the 13-point underdogs simply because divisional games are usually tightly contested. Atlanta covers.  

And somewhere Flava Flav bellows, “Cant truss it!” Oh well. 

Dallas at LA Chargers (-3)

This will feel like a home game to the Cowboys, as the Chargers continue to run weekly Amber Alerts looking for fans throughout the various Southern Cali municipalities they have called home. I fully expect a 70-30 crowd in favor of the ‘Boys inside SoFi Stadium. 

That being said, none of those fans play cornerback and Dallas just gave up 400 yards passing in their opener (all be it to Tom Brady), and now face a quarterback who launches as freely as Don Rickles at a Dean Martin Celebrity Roast. Translation: Justin Herbert is primed for a huge day.

The Chargers win this shootout and cover the three points.

 

Kansas City (-3.5) at Baltimore

This shapes up to be a very good game with humongous playoff implications even though it is only Week 2. The Chiefs looked like a champion prize fighter doing all they could to weather the storm of a younger challenger last week, and for about 9 rounds Cleveland had them up against the ropes. 

Baltimore, meanwhile, looked like an even younger and badder challenger than Cleveland until they tired in the last round and left their jaw exposed.

Sigh. Baltimore will be at home and playing desperate, yet the gambler's fallacy says "keep taking Kansas City until they stop throwing touchdowns on every sixth play.” 

I’ll take the Chiefs, minus the points, to win and cover. But I'll admit I'm not confident in it.

 

Detroit at Green Bay (-12.5)

I predicted last week that Detroit would find a way to only lose “sort of” badly to San Francisco and that the real ass kicking would come in Week 2 at the hands of the Packers. 

That of course was before Green Bay made Jameis Winston look like Tecmo Bowl Warren Moon, while looking every bit themselves like a team that spent their entire off season marinating in drama and distraction. Damn they were awful. But they are still not Detroit awful. 

 

Covering 12+ points is asking a lot of a team that just got their asses whooped 38-3 to a squad forced to play their "home game" 4 states over because of a hurricane.  Still, something tells me Green Bay will do what Green Bay does, and Detroit will do what Detroit does.  Packers roll.

Until next week, my friends.  You’ve been Bird Dropped.

Last Week Straight Up Winners: 10-6

Current Season Total Straight Up Winners: 10-6

Last Week Against the Spread: 9-6-1

Current Season Total Against the Spread:  9-6-1

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Picking The Season Openers: The Bird's Week 1 Picks

As a general rule Week 1 is always the hardest to forecast.  Predicting future outcomes is so often reliant upon our analysis of past results and, well, until opening week is behind us we don't have much to go on in the way of evidence.  Plus, perennial losers like the Lions, Jets, and Jaguars haven't realized they suck yet and show up with hope and vigor to games they would otherwise be pummeled in if this were November.

It can be quite misleading.

In Week 1, even the Jets bring their best effort.

Other unforeseen factors always sneak their way into the opening weekend as well, wreaking havoc on fans and bettors alike: Jerry Jeudy dropping game-clinching catches like hot potatoes; Phyllis Rivers being out dueled in both throws and facial hair by an upstart named Gardner Minschew; traditionally strong home field advantages wiped out by cardboard cutouts and pumped-in crowd noise.  All of these happened one year ago this week, and sans for Minschew's sweet mustache, let's hope everything else rights itself in 2021.

So. Now that I've laid the foundation for excuse should my picks be sabotaged by any of the above, let's get down to brass tacks.  For the next 18 weeks there are games to predict and money to be made. As Montell Jordan once crooned, "This is how we do it!"

Dallas (+8.5) at Tampa Bay 

Between Dak Prescott's gruesome leg break, Ezekiel Elliott and his entire O-Line being injured, and Mike McCarthy clapping way less than Jason Garret after every single play, the Cowboys' 2020 campaign was nothing short of disastrous. 

2021 started much better for America's Team until HBO's "Hard Knocks" documented Jon Fassel giving his special teams a lesson on what happens with a vasectomy and the importance of "getting reconnected."  Somewhere, Tom Landry was not laughing.

Tampa on the other hand... that was impressive.

Still, in the past 10 years, the defending champions are 6-4 overall in Week 1 of the new season with a .500 record against the spread.

Those odds suggest a slight nod toward a Bucs win, but a mere coin flip on whether or not they'll cover the points.  I'll pick Dallas to keep it closer than 9 points.  Also, there's a vasectomy joke to squeeze in here but I cut it out. 

 

Philadelphia at Atlanta (-3)

Even in the most parallel of worlds, a Julio Jones-less Matt Ryan is better than Joe Flacco, Jalen Hurts, and Nick Mullens combined.  Atlanta not only wins, but covers what I think is a very generous spread for the dirty birds at home.

 

New York Jets at Carolina (-5)

Picking this beauty of an opener hinges on the answer to a very key question for the men in green tights.  Let's review a countrywide poll of Jets fans for guidance:

I'm going to pick Carolina today on a hunch that Sam Darnold has something to prove to his old team, even if that something is Christian McCaffery racking up 400 yards and outscoring the Jets by 5 points all by himself.

LA Chargers at Washington (+1)

In a matchup sure to make ol' Norv Turner clinch his butt cheeks, the young and talented Chargers of LA travel 3,000 miles from home and will probably play in front of more Bolts fans than had this one been contested in SoCal.

Washington, on the other hand, begins the 17-game farewell tour of that regal and classic nickname that has stood the test of time: "Football Team."  

Factoring in the disadvantage of a west coast team traveling back east, plus having to face the guy I think wins Defensive Player of the Year this year (Chase Young), and at a time (Week 1) when defenses are normally ahead of the offenses, I like the home underdogs here in an early upset.

San Francisco at Detroit (+7.5)

Examining this game involves the weighing of two conflicting facts:

1. San Francisco is far and away the better squad here.
2. The Lions don’t yet realize how shitty they will be this year, and they have also forgotten how shitty they were last year. 

Its asinine to say out loud, but I kind of like the Lions to keep it within 8 points this Sunday.  A new quarterback, plus the excitement of playing the opener in front of fans who have not yet covered their heads in shame with paper bags just might be enough to lose without getting annihilated. That will come next week in Green Bay.

San Fran wins the game, but if betting I would take Detroit plus the eight points on a backdoor cover. Lions are my pick against the spread.

 

Pittsburgh at Buffalo (-6.5)

It's been almost three decades since the Bills ruled the roost in the AFC, and last year they were four quarters away from returning to the Super Bowl. 

It's been nearly just as long since we've seen the Steelers look as Pillsbury-soft (not counting their quarterback's physique) as they were last January when Cleveland almost hung a 50 burger on them in the playoffs.

From coaches to quarterbacks, these teams feel like two ships passing in the night.  Buffalo is the pick.

Arizona at Tennessee (-3)

This game might have more fantasy scoring than if my Dungeons & Dragons League threw down cards at the Moonlight Bunny Ranch & Brothel.  Kyler Murray, DeAndre Hopkins, A.J. Green (now in Arizona), Ryan Tannehill, Derek Henry, Julio Jones (now in Tennessee), and A.J. Brown, to name a few, should all score as easily as if they were in a 5¢ whore house with a pocket full of nickels. 

The addition of Julio Jones on the outside should effectively stop opposing defenses from focusing all their energy on Henry for once, and I tend to think he is about to go even more bonkers in 2021 than he did in 2020 — if that’s even possible.  If he started Week 1 with a couple hundred yards here I wouldn't be surprised.

Tennessee wins and covers the spread in what I think might be the game of the day.

Jacksonville at Houston (+3)

Now moving on from the game of the day…. to this. Sigh.

Aside from Urban Meyer's and Trevor Lawrence's much ballyhoo'd pro debuts, there’s not much to see here. It’s still Jacksonville. 

That being said Houston has been running a 20-month-long Blue Light Special, selling off every superstar that isn’t a frequenter of the Houston-area massage parlor scene, leaving them as the biggest dumpster fire in all of sports. Hmm, when I put it that way, they might have beaten Jacksonville at their own game already. 

What to do, what to do?  Houston, for reasons I can’t explain other than The Bird doesn’t like to bet on rookie quarterbacks on the road, is my pick.  I'll go disconnect my cable box now so that I don’t accidentally watch this one.

Minnesota at Cincinnati (+3)

It's hard to remember but for a short while last season Cincinnati actually played some pretty competent football for the first time since Boomer and Co. were Ickey Shuffling their hearts out in the Queen City. Joe Burrow was 10th in passing and Joe Mixon was running like the second coming of Corey Dillon before injuries got the better of the Bungles. 

Minnesota meanwhile, if not for Dalvin Cook's badassery and Kirk Cousins' gazillion dollar contract, almost appear to me like a team on the verge of a rebuild.

I like the Bengals, getting points at home, to ride the energy of Joe Burrow's return to an outright victory. It’s my juiciest hunch of the weekend. Beware!

Seattle (-2.5) at Indianapolis

I'd be lying if I said Indianapolis' preseason didn't conjure up nightmares of my beloved Broncos' 2020 off-season. The terms "snake bitten" and "injury bug" do indeed make good bed fellows.

Before Carson Wentz’s August foot injury the Vegas wise guys had the Titans and Colts at dead even odds to win the AFC South.  After Wentz's surgery, Tennessee was all but crowned division champs on Vegas betting boards while the Horseshoes fell like a blind roofer.  Backup Sam Ehrlinger then went down for 6 weeks and I now hear rumors the Colts are looking to sign Bert Jones to take snaps this September. If Wentz can’t go, it’ll be Jacob Eason. Who?

Seattle is the play.

The Indianapolis quarterbacks’ room as Colts QB’s watch film of the Seahawks in preparation for Sunday's game.

Miami (+3) at New England

If last season showed us anything in the AFC East, it's that New England without Tom Brady not only made the Patriots seem human again, but actually made them borderline unwatchable. In parallel, Buffalo and Miami instantly became viable division challengers.

It was kind of like that time when Charlie Sheen left Two & A Half Men to go drink tiger blood and harass women, and all of a sudden How I Met Your Mother and The Good Wife saw their ratings go up.

Miami surely recognizes the chance to start a new season ahead in the ratings, and I really like the idea of their underrated defense starting things off against a baby-faced rookie in Mac Jones.  

I think the Fins’ former Alabama quarterback fairs better than the Pats’ former Alabama quarterback and Miami not only covers the spread, but wins this game outright.

 

Denver(-2.5) at New York Giants

Upon first look when the schedule came out, I had this one pegged as the drunken sailor matchup of the week. Then Fanny Pack Vic replaced his young and zealous, interception-prone QB with the supposedly steady-eyed veteran Teddy Bridgewater. Now us fans on the Bronco Jolly Roger are lead to believe the football will be cared for in Denver like a newly-swaddled baby and this ship is yet again on the right course. We shall see.

The Giants, however, are not as lucky. Daniel Jones remains the signal caller, along with his penchant for forcing throws, taking bad sacks, and fumbling in ways that would make Mark Sanchez proud.

I really dislike picking Denver in games that involve traveling back east as they have been historically bad in this situation.  That being said, in a battle against a team with a mistake-prone QB who is missing his #1 WR, #1 TE and possibly his #1 RB, its normally safe to bet on the other team’s defense.

Broncos by a field goal seems doable.  And if it isn’t, then Lord help me. 

 

Green Bay (-4) at New Orleans

As a Bronco lover and a romantic, I followed #12's every move this summer with a fairy tale heart. Aaron Rodgers in orange and blue. Dragons slayed. Happily ever after. Sigh.  I even rooted for him and... (hold please, while I swallow the little bit of vomit that just came up) Bryson DeChambeau in this summer's The Match.  Blechh!

Then proverbial midnight struck and it all reverted to a pumpkin whilst I was left on one knee, holding Princess Aaron's glass slipper as she retreated to the magical forests of Frozen-Tundra Land.  Bippity, boppity, Boo.

I haven’t felt such a depressingly low rate of return on my emotional investment since Y2K came and went without ever getting to use my bunker and end-of-times Chef Boyardee stash.

Begrudgingly I’ll take the Pack to win and cover. If you need me though I’ll be over on another channel, all scorned and watching my Broncos while sipping Orange Crush from this glass shoe nobody wanted.

Cleveland at Kansas City (-6)

Some words of caution to anyone drinking the Brownie kool-aid after the plain helmets snapped their 27 year playoff win drought last year:

A) Don't do that.  Drinking anything mixed with water from the shores of Lake Erie will cause unruly hair growth and have you looking like Bernie Kosar in a week.

B) Cleveland hasn't won a season opener since The Bird was reading What to Expect While You're Expecting books and boring his friends and family with flow charts of possible baby names.  Jeff Garcia was Cleveland's quarterback and the year was 2004.  Jesus.

The Chiefs, coming off of 2+ seasons of beating everyone's ass and playing in Super Bowls will win easily and cover this spread. 

 

Chicago at LA Rams (-7.5)

Let's see.  The Rams roll out a brand new Defensive Coordinator in Raheem Morris who is surely looking to make a statement in his first game in a new job for his new team.  He has a tool bag consisting of recently signed $65M Leonard Floyd looking to build on last year's career year, a re-energized all pro CB in Jalen Ramsey, and the baddest SOB currently taking downs in the NFL, Aaron Donald.  

The Bears will trot out either: A rookie QB making his NFL debut on the road in primetime... or... Andy Dalton.

Sheesh. Aaron Donald alone will be drooling with levels of anxiety and rage not seen since Taylor Swift's last break up.  I'll be surprised if the Bears can score, let alone keep it closer than a touchdown. Pick the Rams and cash in.

Baltimore at Las Vegas (+4.5)

I really struggle when it comes to saying anything charming about the Raiders.  They open their brand new home this Monday night and their first guests are one of only four current teams to have made the playoffs in each of the last three seasons.

Personally, I hope Lamar Jackson and the Ravens leave a turd in the water tank.

That being said, The Bird is nothing if not a polite guy at heart, so I did get a housewarming gift for the Silver & Black:

The Bird hopes Lamar leaves an upper decker on his way out.

I think the home team probably shows up well this opening game, and adding 4.5 points proves the Vegas odds-makers just down the block are friendly new neighbors. Baltimore may still ruin the christening with a win here, but I'll pick the Raiders to keep it within 4. That’s as charming as it gets, Raiders. 

 

Until next week football fans.... Happy NFL Season!

 

Current Season Against the Spread:  0-0-0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

Coming Soon! The Weekly NFL Picks Are Back!

I hold in my hand the envelope. As a child of four can plainly see, this envelope has been hermetically sealed.  It has been kept in a mayonnaise jar on Funk and Wagnall's porch since noon today.  NO ONE knows the contents of the envelope... but The Bird... who in his mystical and borderline divine way, will ascertain the answers.

 

 

Calling all fans of football! In less than a fortnight it all starts again!

With parched mouths we have crawled through the dog days of summer.  We've scaled that God-awful sports void that lies between Major League Baseball's All Star Break and College Football's "Week Zero" kickoff, wherein we break the seal with such classics as UTEP vs. New Mexico St. and Nebraska's annual game against The Abilene School for the Little Sisters of the Poor. Actually this year the Big Red scheduled Illinois and promptly (and gloriously) got their asses kicked.

Either way, unless you enjoy the penultimate months of MLB's way-too-long regular season, or cheer on the Fighting Illini, there is no worse time on the calendar for sports fans than right now.  NFL fans especially. As Clark Griswold once carped after trudging through the desert with his pants on his head: "I'm so hungry I could eat a sandwich from a gas station."

The Bird stumbles through the last stretch of NFL fans' most barren wasteland: July and August. Thirsty, if not dying, for the quench of the Sunday gridiron.

 

Alas, I even watched three weeks of the European Soccer Championship just so I could say I partook in some type of "football" viewing this summer. I was so ashamed afterward that I asked a neighbor to red card me.

I miss Terry and Howie.

Fear not, however! Toss the rubbish of Euro football and Simone Biles-less Olympics into the pragmatic trash heap of insatiable exhibits of sports viewing. NFL football is back!

Come with me, to a place where the picks flow like wine.  Where Sunday morning armchair quarterbacks instinctively flock like the salmon of Capistrano.  That's right.  I'm talking about a little place called... The Bird Droppings.

For those who have suppressed the trauma of reading the Bird Droppings way back in your youth, this was once the place to obtain every ounce of knowledge necessary to go into your NFL weekend beaming with all the same confidence as Deshaun Watson in a massage parlor.  And now that sports betting is legal in all the cool states, plus West Virginia, you are encouraged once again to turn to the Bird's prognostications and bank a little coin along the way.

If you're completely new, then welcome!  Each week we will examine the match ups (against the spread for some added resplendence) as well as review, pontificate, and poke fun of the season's trends and story lines as they unfold.  The occasional soliloquy about the affairs of my Denver Broncos is also likely to show up from time to time for the amusement of all who read.

So put on your eye black and let’s go!  Names are being sewn on jerseys as we speak.  End zone paint is being applied on fields across the land.  And Bill Belichick has replenished his stock of hoodies and hemorrhoid cream.

No masks required.  The Bird is ready for some football...  Are you?