No Apologies: The Bird’s Week 4 NFL Picks

And just like that we’re at the quarter pole.

I went 10-6 straight up last week with a 9-7 ATS, which still classifies as “winning,” even if felt like an 11-10 march through quicksand. Personally, I blame the Bills and Chiefs for pretty much screwing all of us -including themselves- by not making good on what seemed like sure-fire spreads. Buttholes.

Yet despite falling right into it, I knew that KC line was a trap! 

As for the Broncos…

It’s becoming clearer just exactly what Russ
means when he says, “Let’s ride.”

I had to defend myself to several people last weekend for picking Denver, but I felt that one from the gut and not the heart. And let’s just say Jimmy G is who I thought he was.

Now. On the “sexy scale,” did Denver escape Sunday night looking like they chased a fart through a bucket of nails? Sure, you could say that.

But it also looked like the #1 and #2 defenses in the league to me; each had hella-games, and you should never apologize for getting a win like that against a team that should have been in last year’s Super Bowl.

As far as the picks go, this prognosticator doesn’t apologize for anything either. Um, except maybe for making fun of Brits again in my annual NFL London pick.

Let’s have a bit of the Week 4, ol’ chaps! Chip chip!

A Bird’s Eye View (picks and analysis)

Minnesota (-2.5) at New Orleans 

In a rare twist to the international matchup, the NFL sends a game to London that for once doesn’t include the Jaguars, Raiders or Lions. This can only be construed as our deepest American condolences for the Queen's passing.

Then again, having binged Vikings and The Last Kingdom all through the pandemic, I can see how sending over a team named after the Great Heathen Army subtly still counts as an eff-you to the crown. Well done, Roger Goodell. Well done.

This game is always hard to pick. It’s basically two teams who have jet lag in a place they don’t want to be, mucking it up in a stinky dark soccer stadium in front of a crowd singing pub songs and waving colorful scarves.

Dalvin Cook's injury is concerning, but when in doubt always trust in Jameis Winston to not take care of the football. Or, if it comes down to it, trust in Andy Dalton to take care of it but do nothing with it. Minnesota wins by more than 2.

The Great Heathen Army 24   Saints 16

LA Chargers (-5.5) at Houston

What the hell happened to the Chargers? One minute they are an offensive juggernaut playing with purpose and confidence, and the next minute they're suffering from NTPTSD (Norv Turner Post-Traumatic Stress Disorder). I mean, I know J-Herb's ribs were cracked and all, but seriously... did Norv take back over last Sunday?

I suspect they are favored here because even a one-armed Justin Herbert is better than a two-armed Davis Mills. That, and Houston just lost to the worst offense the NFL has seen since Tim Tebow was trying to make the single wing cool again.

Chargers 23  Texans 13

Not sure Houston’s offense could keep up
even if they were playing in the 1947 Cotton Bowl.

Chicago at New York Giants (-3)

The New York Giants disappointed last week.

The Bird watches in disgust as the Giants
bring down his pick’em stats.

I’m not sure how to pick these guys to cover 3 points other than to remind myself they are playing the Chicago Bears, who have an offense only the CU Buffs could be jealous of.

Giants 16  Bears 9

Seattle (+5) at Detroit

Yet again, Detroit managed to take certain victory and turn it into a gigantic pile of “we’ve been a bunch of losers ever since Bobby Layne retired.” Fortunately, they play the Geno Smth Seahawks this week. Unfortunately, we just can’t trust this organization to cover such a large number. 

Detroit’s quarterback the last time the Lions were
favored by this many points. I believe they 
beat the Chicago Cardinals 8-0.

Lions 24  Seahawks 20

Jacksonville at Philadelphia (-6.5)

Jacksonville has surprised me, and this does feel like a huge spread between two teams with a combined 5-1 record and who both beat the snot out of their opponents seven days ago.

Still, like I said last week: I am riding the Eagles and Jalen Hurts until I see a reason not to. Philly by a touch.

Eagles 31  Jaguars 24

New York Jets at Pittsburgh (-3)

On one hand, I hate the idea of Pittsburgh outscoring anyone by more than 3 points. On the other hand (and as a general rule in life) I always eschew betting on teams led by a 35 year old Joe Flacco (or a rookie QB on the road, should Zach Wilson finally grace us with his presence).

Steelers 20  Jets 16

Tennessee (+3.5) at Indianapolis 

If the same Indy team that round-housed the Chiefs and the same Titans team that laid eggs in Week 1 & 2 show up for this game, I like the Colts to cover and win here. 

And if my Aunt had a penis she would be my Uncle.

Tennessee got their Derek Henry fix going again last Sunday and they have a thuggish manor about them that the finesse Chiefs do not. Indy will find it was better to trade play-action with KC than it will be to trade body blows with Tennessee. I like the visitors getting points here as the underdog. If Henry gets going, they might even win.

Titans 20  Colts 17

Washington at Dallas (-3)

Just when you think the Cowboys are done, they plug in some guy named Cooper Rush, stagger back up, and fight like warriors.  

Just when you think the Commanders are done, they are done.

Cowboys 19  Commanders 13

Buffalo at Baltimore (+3.5)

To be honest, I can't tell if I'm more impressed by the Ravens or the Bills.

I'd like to say the Bills will rebound and avoid falling to 2-2, but Lamar Jackson is quite literally playing as if Michael Vick and Warren Moon had a love child 25 years ago and named him Lamar.

I’ll take Buffalo to win, but I like the Ravens to cover as home dogs here. 

Bills 28  Ravens 25

Arizona (+1.5) at Carolina

This is a tough call. Christian McCaffrey is a man amongst slightly lesser men and can single handedly keep the Panthers in the game. On the other hand, Baker Mayfield does really stupid shit at least twice a game and has the NFL’s lowest QBR.

I think the Cardinals beat the spread.

Cardinals 26  Panthers 23

Denver at Las Vegas (-2.5)

I’ll admit I thought that the Raiders were finally due for some resurgence back when Al Davis passed away. Get some newer, younger blood in there, move the team to Sin City, build a ginormous stadium, and hire a young buck from the coaching tree of the greatest patriarch and asswipe that ever walked a sideline.

Well, if you’re out there Al, please accept my apology. You guys suck no matter who is in charge, and in any city.

That said, I am currently running a thin string of eeking out Denver picks and my gut tells me the Raiders will play with a desperate urgency that Denver will struggle to match. Road divisional games are tough, and the offense in Denver has been less DangerRuss and more DangerMouse. So I’m reluctant to bet on my team here. 

Picking the Raiders always requires me to delouse and shower immediately after writing this blog and normally I don’t have time for that. Ugh. Cancel my afternoon calls.

Raiders 27  Broncos 24

New England at Green Bay (-9.5)

Mac Jones is out for a couple of weeks with the dreaded Shannon Sharpe's Disease— I mean, "high ankle sprain”—and I don't see any way that a non-cheating Belichick team can stay within 10 points on the road at Lambeau with a backup quarterback who throws more dirtbags than the bouncer at a Colfax Hooters.

Packers 34  Patriots 17

Kansas City (+1) at Tampa Bay

Stay away from this game.

You’ve got two proud teams both destined for the Super Bowl (according to most everyone outside of Buffalo) coming off of bad losses. Hurricane Ian won the week and there are too many other oddball factors to consider.

I guess for what feels like a field goal game that’s probably going to be played on a rain-soaked field somewhere in middle Florida, give me a Kansas City team who didn’t have to spend their prep week boarding windows in a Cat 5.

Chiefs 24  Buccaneers 23

LA Rams (+1.5) at San Francisco

Last week I correctly leaned on Jimmy Garoppolo to be extremely rusty (if you want to call it that), having not seen any game action since last January’s NFC Championship. I suspect this week will be similar, as it is Jimmy’s second preseason game essentially.

But what really turned last Sunday’s game from dog poo into steaming pile of dog poo for Jimmy, was when his left tackle Trent Williams went down. From that point on, the Denver defense drummed up memories of the Fearsome Foursome.

…not really.

LA no longer has Deacon Jones, Merlin Olson, Rosie Grier, and the other guy, but they do have Aaron Donald. I like the Rams here, not only as underdogs, but to win outright.

Rams 28  49’ers 20

Bet the Nest  (Lock of the week)

Miami at Cincinnati (-3)

Despite being on record that I don't think they will make the playoffs, I can't stop picking the Bengals. It's like I have this horrible, diseased, ugly tiger-striped monkey on my back. Well I'm not gonna beat my monkey this week and neither are the Dolphins.

Tua Tagovailoa's health is a question here, so is Jaylen Waddle’s. Last week their defense was on the field for 90 (ninety!) plays in a heat index 105° game, and now they fly out of the eye of a hurricane on a short week to play the AFC Champs?

This feels like all Bengals to me.

Bengals 34  Dolphins 20

Fox in the Hen House  (Trap game of the week)

Cleveland (-1.5) at Atlanta 

Cleveland should really be 3-0. Atlanta could really be 0-3.

I have no Cleveland Browns on my fantasy team and I play the guy in my league who has Nick Chubb. Conversely, I have two Atlanta Falcons on my roster so I can almost assuredly count on them to suck.

Why Cleveland and their NFL’s best rushing attack is favored by nary a point against an uninspired Falcons team ranked 17th against the run is beyond me.

Unless… it’s a trap?

I’m feeling good about the Browns this week.
Why do I feel like this could be me?

Browns 24  Falcons 17

Thanks for having some droppings with your tea and crumpets! Jimmy likes the Bird Droppings!

Season Total Straight Up Winners: 28-19-1

Season Total Against the Spread:  24-24

Lock of the Week Picks: 1-2

Trap Game of the Week:  1-2

Countdown: The Bird’s Week 3 NFL Picks

Well…

Clearly my Donkeys are still working through some things.

I can’t be overly judgmental though because I too chose to not start any preseason games, hence my picks are suffering similarly. Difference is, I don’t have a ton of pre-snap penalties and clock management gaffes to show for it. Just a less-than-what’s-expected overall record for myself.

Then again, if the Raiders, Rams, Ravens, and Browns don’t all blow massive leads in the 4th quarter last week, I would have gone 10-6 ATS instead of 6-10, and could say I had a nice little Sunday.

Sigh. If “ifs” and “buts” were candy and nuts…

Anyway. The Week 3 picks start in:

Click here for the Week 3 Countdown

A Bird’s Eye View (picks and analysis)

Pittsburgh (+5) at Cleveland

God hates Cleveland and deservedly so. 

Watching the Browns break a league streak of 2,229 consecutive games where a team leading by at least 13 points in the final two minutes holds on to win, was about as Clevelandy a thing we’ve seen since that time the Cuyahoga River was on fire.

Never mind they were also the last team to lose so magnificently, when they blew a 21-7 lead in the final :32 seconds of a 2001 game against Chicago.

This is why they are called the Browns.

Which is also why its fitting they are streaming on Prime this week. Because they are hard to watch anyway. 

Steelers cover.   (FYI I’m only picking the Browns to outright win because I think it’s the only way Pittsburgh moves on from Mitch Trubisky and starts the Kenny Pickett era). 

-shrug-

Browns 16  Steelers 13

Baltimore (-2.5) at New England

I broke a cardinal rule last week: Anyone who bets on the Patriots to start a season 0-2 doesn’t know just how big of a dick William Stephen Belichick can be. I knew it the minute I got to my tailgate party last Sunday and saw the NE-PIT score.

The good news for me is, I don’t have to ponder if the Pats are going to possibly start 0-3 now, which makes it a lot easier for me to take Baltimore. Not to mention Lamar Jackson is just sick.

Ravens 24  Patriots 17

New Orleans (-2.5) at Carolina

In Week 1 Carolina sucked horribly in the first half. Last week they sucked horribly in the second half. This week I think they will just suck horribly the whole game.

Saints 27  Panthers 23

Detroit at Minnesota (-5.5)

I bet the Vikings are pretty pissed off about how badly they got ass-whooped in Philly last week. And for pretty much every year since 1946, one of the greatest cures for a team in need of redemption is playing the Detroit Lions. Minnesota sips that magical elixir this week.

Vikings 31  Lions 21

Houston at Chicago (-2.5)

So far I am not impressed with Chicago.

That said, the Houston Texans may have the worst offense this side of Boulder, Colorado. I would elaborate here but chances are my laptop battery would not last long enough to undertake such a task.

Chicago is back at home and Aaron Rodgers is 1,200 miles away in another time zone this week, which is a good thing.

Bears 20  Texans 12

Philadelphia (-6.5) at Washington

After years of watching Alabama quarterbacks dominate college football then come to the NFL and immediately start sucking, Jalen Hurts is looking more and more like the next Joe Namath or Kenny Stabler rather than the slew of A.J. McCarrons, Greg McElroys, Jeff Rutledges, Jay Barkers and however many other lame duck Crimson Tiders I can no longer recall.

I’m impressed. Until I see reason to do otherwise, I’m riding the Eagles; a team who looks like they smell blood in the NFC East and who have a silent assassin nobody is talking about under center.

Eagles 30  Commanders 20

Cincinnati (-5.5) at New York Jets

It is sensationalism of the highest order to label any game that takes place in Week 3 of the NFL season as a “must win.”

That having been said, if you are the Cincinnati Bengals, this is a must win.

Bengals 29  Jets 20

Las Vegas (-1.5) at Tennessee

Speaking of…

They say you can’t win a championship in September. But you sure as hell can lose one. After today one of these teams will be looking at a Herculean effort if they want to get back to the playoffs.

Normally I love a home dawg, but the Raiders have been competent and maybe even a little snake bit. Tennessee has just flat out sucked and may have also had their soul ripped right out of their ass last Monday in Buffalo. 

Raiders 27  Titans 24

Jacksonville (+3.5) at LA Chargers

Justin Herbert has popped rib cartilage, which is something I did to myself while coughing two years ago.

Don’t laugh.

For three weeks I couldn’t do mundane things like adjust my rear view mirror, point the tv remote, or even lift a beer to my mouth or wipe my ass unless I did so southpaw. I don’t know how in the name of Phyllis Rivers he can quarterback the Chargers without doing so either in great discomfort or on heavy drugs.

Also, Jacksonville is trending up. Which is a sentence that has never before been uttered in human history. This has to stand for something.

I’ll take the scrappy Jags to cover against a Charger team that is one sneeze away from Chase Daniel throwing to the wrong team all day.

Chargers 27  Jaguars 24

Atlanta (+1) at Seattle 

Marcus Mariota vs. Gino Smith! Finally it has happened! Remember this day my friends. Some day, when your grandchildren are sitting on your knee, they are going to ask where you were when this battle of titans occurred.

Photo from the last time two QB’s of this caliber met up on the gridiron.

I am almost too excited to pick here. All I know is, anytime you’re choosing between two mediocre teams with dipshit QB’s, it’s always wisest to take the team that’s getting points.

Falcons 24  Seahawks 21

LA Rams (-3) at Arizona

The Rams raced out to a huge lead last week then almost lost it, save for a Jalen Ramsey game-clinching interception in the end zone.

The Cards did the exact opposite, then stormed back from a 20-0 deficit to steal victory from the jaws of defeat in overtime.

I really don’t know which way to go here, but since Kyler Murray got bitch slapped by a fan after Arizona’s win and no one tried to do the same to Matt Stafford, I suppose the Rams are more likable.  

Yeah, sometimes I don’t even understand my logic.

Picking this game be like…

Rams 27  Cardinals 23

Green Bay (+2) at Tampa Bay

I kinda like the Pack here mainly because, apparently, when Tom Brady doesn’t get his kale shake and Bon Iver on vinyl in the mornings he can become quite the Karen.

Tom: “Did you hear the trash they were talking about Whole Foods?”
Mike: “Yeah. I punched that bitch for you.”

And Mike Evans will sit this one out for defending a white woman’s privileged behavior in New Orleans last week.

No Evans. Injuries. Turbulence. Green Bay covers. I think they win outright actually.

Packers 31  Buccaneers 24

San Francisco at Denver (+1.5)

Deep breath. Hear me out here.

No doubt it’s easy to pick on Denver these days.

Regardless of what you think about the play calling and general coaching awareness of one Nathaniel J. Hackett, do take heart: this line had Denver favored by 2.5 pts up until Jimmy Garoppolo became the 49’ers’ starter. Since then it has swung 4 points in the other direction, which tells us one thing: unless you think Jimmy G. is that great, Denver holds value here as a home underdog.

Their defense hasn’t given up a touchdown since the 2nd quarter of the Seattle game, and Russ now has two practice games under his belt. Garappolo does not. I’m also going to assume the Broncos don’t take 13 penalties for the third straight week. These are all difference makers if you ask me.

Oh. And if this were coming from the babbling mouth of a non-Bronco fan, it would sound more logical and less wishful thinking I assure you.

I don’t bet with my heart. But I feel this way about this game, and I do so objectively. If I’m wrong I will take up a monk-like commitment to self discipline starting Monday.

Broncos 23  49’ers 20

Dallas at New York Giants (-1)

Both of these teams are coming off of wins and have varying degrees of momentum heading into this matchup.

Call it a hunch, but I have a feeling Dallas may be feeling slightly overconfident, having punked the AFC champs just days after suspecting their season might be over.

And say what you will about the Giants, but it has been a long damn time since they have had to worry about taking an opponent lightly.

Are the Giants and their fans feeling less shame than usual after 2 games?  Yes. Is overconfidence likely? Such a notion is so foreign to these guys I have to assume No.

Giants 22  Cowboys 17

Bet the Nest  (Lock of the week)

Buffalo (-5.5) at Miami

Let’s be real. There is no betting app on any phone in the land right now where choosing Miami plus anything less than 10 points would be wise.

First of all, Miami was down 35-14 in the 4th quarter last week to Baltimore, before all hell broke loose in the Ravens’ secondary and the Phins were able to exact a miracle. If they lose that game 35-21 or 38-21 or whatever they should have lost by… the spread for this Buffalo game Sunday is not sixish points.

The Bills have won something like 20 straight games by double-digits, which basically means every week for two seasons they have been either destroying their opponent or losing to them.

Do I see them losing this Sunday? Nope. Following the trend.

Bills 41  Dolphins 31

Fox in the Hen House  (Trap Game of the week)

Kansas City (-5.5) at Indianapolis

Why in the name of Miley Cyrus’s headboard is this line so low??

I mean, Kansas City is averaging 35+ points a game, scoring like Ryan Gosling in a Sorority house, and go into this game with a ‘our weapons-vs-our opponent’s weapons’ ratio in the same neighborhood as Russia:Ukraine. 

The Colts, meanwhile, are averaging 10 pts per game against two suckhole opponents like Houston and Jacksonville. 

I see no scenario in this game where Kansas City doesn’t invade Indy and toss the little guys around by their skivvies.

How anyone who doesn’t think Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs aren’t worth 6 points against a Colts team that hasn’t scored six points since Week 1, is beyond me.. 

And every time Vegas puts up a line that seems too easy to be true, I have to look down at my feet.

Am I about to step into a trap?

Welp. I just compared the Chiefs to Vladimir Putin while suggesting a lot of scoring goes on in Hannah Montana’s bedroom. I guess I’m taking the bait. 

Chiefs 35  Colts 16

And there you have it. Let’s hope our winners all hang on for the full 60 min this week.

Season Total Straight Up Winners: 18-13-1

Season Total Against the Spread:  15-17

Lock of the Week Picks: 1-1

Trap Game of the Week:  1-1

Never have more eloquent words been spoken.

Sound the Melodica! The Bird’s Week 2 NFL Picks

(Voluntarily burning :39 seconds in honor of Nathaniel Hackett. Please wait.)

Okay.

As always, Week 1 in the NFL is littered with so many Donald Rumsfeldian “unknowns” that one’s ability to predict anything comes about as easy as a Bill Belichick smile. 

Lame things like botched kicks, mismanaged timeouts, and the Dallas Cowboys all played a role in what was a very laughable Week 1. Hell, the Bears were even flagged for an unsportsmanlike penalty for “illegal use of a towel.” While playing in the middle of Lake Michigan for heaven’s sake!

Thanks to all of it, my season started out a bit like this:

Click here to see the Bird Droppings opening fanfare

Shake my head. What a start to the NFL year. The fact that I finished with a better record against the spread than I did in picking straight up winners is perhaps the biggest anomaly in all of it. That’s almost impossible to do.

Anyway… 

This weekend has six games with spreads of at least a touchdown; two-thirds of those are 9 1/2 points or higher. Should be another interesting gamut to behold. Let’s look at the Week 2 matchups!

A Bird’s Eye View (picks and analysis)

LA Chargers (+4.5) at Kansas City

The Bolts wrote the blueprint last season on how to go toe-to-toe with the Chiefs, and now they’ve added a bunch of badasses to their defense too. Keenan Allen’s absence is concerning, but no team is built for matching up with the Chefs like San Diego is. Yes, I still call them the Chefs. And I still say San Diego. 

Getting this many points for what feels like a field goal game is beyond tempting. Chefs win; San Diego covers.

Chiefs 31 Chargers 27

New York Jets at Cleveland (-6.5)

Joe Flacco was born way back when I was in 5th grade, making him 37 years old. Last week New York asked him to throw the ball 59 times for a ‘Pass Attempt-vs-You’re Too Old to Do That’ ratio of -22. One silver lining though: I bet it felt nice for Joe to be throwing to Ravens players again. 

Cleveland introduces a giant Keebler Elf as their midfield logo this season.

Welp, this decision’s easy.

Browns 26  Jets 16

Washington at Detroit (-1)

Early in the season (for a young team at least), it is sometimes better to lose a hard fought game than to win a contest in which you were outplayed by your opponent. Never mind that the Lions have been proving this theory wrong my entire life.

Regardless, I think our heroes in Silver & Blue get off the schneid in Week 2, fourteen weeks earlier than usual. 

Lions 27  Commanders 24

Carolina at New York Giants (-1.5)

What I learned last week: if this were 2021 or any season prior all the way back to the years of Eli and the helmet catch, a 13-point deficit to Tennessee on the road would have been an insurmountable challenge of Kilimanjaric proportions. However, contrary to the G-Men of years past, these guys have balls. 

Also what I learned last week: for reasons I can only chalk up to “not wanting to see him get hurt yet,” Carolina so far refuses to get CMC the ball nearly enough.

Giants 23  Panthers 20

Tampa Bay (-2.5) at New Orleans 

TB12 against Jameis? For once I won’t overthink something. 

Wait. After further thought I’m reminded that Brady and the Bucs are 0-4 the last two seasons vs. the Saints, and going back even further than that Tampa has lost 7 of 8 to the Fleur-de-Lis.

Hmm. They’ve gotta be due. I think.

Buccaneers 27  Saints 17

Miami at Baltimore (-3.5)

Miami really stuck it to Baltimore last year, like Really stuck it to them, so I’m a little weary of this being one of those “they’ve got your number” scenarios for the home team. But so long as Lamar Jackson is auditioning— I mean, playing— for a new mega-deal contract, I will roll with him to be more awesome than anything the Fish throw at him.

Also, my friend Nick picked up Tua in fantasy this week, so Miami is doomed.

Ravens 29  Dolphins 16

Indianapolis (-3) at Jacksonville

The Colts debuted a veteran “new” quarterback for like the 15th year in a row last week and polished what is becoming their Cleveland-like knack for losing season openers. Lucky for them they play in the AFC South, the world’s crappiest division this side of the WAC, so rebounds come quick and often.

Colts 27  Jaguars 17

Cincinnati (-7.5) at Dallas

Normally 8 pts is a huge number to cover on the road, but after watching the shitshow that is the Dallas Cowboys last Sunday night, how could anyone not bet on America’s Team to lose by at least 8 points from here on out? Their QB is some dude named Cooper Rush, for Christ’s sake.

(This might actually be a trap… *ponders picking Dallas*)

Blah. I have been very vocal with friends and family this off-season regarding my belief that not only will Cincinnati not make it back to the Super Bowl, but I think they might miss the playoffs altogether. 

This is an extreme opinion compared to most everyone, so I can only back up that kind of chutzpah by picking them to win and cover every week. It’s how I deploy my killer reverse jinx skills, and it worked like a charm 7 days ago.

Bengals 24  Cowboys 15

Atlanta at LA Rams (-10)

I don’t know what it takes to establish a loyal NFL fanbase in Los Angeles, but apparently a Super Bowl win and a shiny new stadium straight out of the year 2044 isn’t it. Matthew Stafford literally had to use a silent count last Thursday, at home!, while Josh Allen worked in sweet comfort and toasted the Rams’ vaunted defense. 

That being said, look for the defending champs to get right this week. 

Rams 30  Falcons 16

Seattle at San Francisco (-9)

In any battle not involving the French army, I will generally take the stronger pissed-off guy over the weaker satisfied guy.

49’ers 20  Seahawks 10

Arizona at Las Vegas (-5.5)

Ooof. I like the Raiders here but I don’t like the spread. Wait, I just remembered this is Arizona we’re talking about.

Raiders 31  Cardinals 23

Action photo of Arizona trying to keep up 
with Kansas City’s offense last week.

Chicago at Green Bay (-10)

Getting Allen Lazard back should help, and paired with my belief that Chicago probably has a falsely heightened sense of self-worth following last Sunday’s upset of the Niners, I think Green Bay wins. And as he reminded everyone last year, #12 “owns” Chicago, so probably by at least 10.

Packers 24  Bears 13

Tennessee (+9.5) at Buffalo

Tough spot for a Tennessee team desperate to not start 0-2. I don’t envision any scenario in which they win this game but, unlike the Bears, they are not riding the same false sense of self-worth because they just lost to the freaking Giants. Based on pride alone I’ll bet them to keep it within 10.

Bills 28  Titans 20

Minnesota at Philadelphia (-2.5)

The universe is at odds here on two very conflicting truths. On one hand, Kirk Cousins has owned Philadelphia going all the way back to his days as Washington’s QB. On the other, he is like 6-17 all time in “prime time” games.

Yep. A real Sophie’s Choice.

Since the ogreish fans of Philly will have an extra 7 hours to drink Yuengling Lager and throw batteries at people, I suspect the atmosphere will be even shoddier than that time they all boo’d Michael Irvin for being rolled off on a stretcher.

This will be unsafe for anyone wearing purple so make mine the men in green tights here.

Eagles 26  Vikings 23

Bet the Nest  (Lock of the week)

Houston at Denver (-10)

If I can’t pick a pissed off and embarrassed Denver squad in their home opener against a team even the Crimson Tide could beat as a sure thing this week, then I don’t think I ever can.

I mean, if they don’t fumble twice inside the 2 yard line and instead punch those in, we’re talking this week about a team who put up 430 yards of offense and 30 points on the road in a hostile environment rather than Nathaniel Hackett’s spot-on Vic Fangio impersonation.

Call me crazy (laying 10 pts in the NFL and calling it a “lock” is certainly a qualifying symptom), but I think Denver is about to take their frustrations out with all the wrath and passion as Andy Reid at a Golden Corral. 

Broncos 30  Texans 13

Fox in the Hen House  (Trap game of the week) 

New England at Pittsburgh (+2.5)

For the life of me, I can’t figure out why the Patriots are favored here. On the road, no less. 

Their quarterback apparently inherited Larry Bird’s lumbar system and Matt Patricia’s play calling so far resembles the high-powered juggernaut offenses I used to run on a vibrating sheet of tin back in 1981:

Matt Patricia’s offense doing it’s thing in Miami last week.

Meanwhile, Pittsburgh just went into Cincinnati and beat the defending AFC Champs with Mitchell Freaking Trubisky. This isn’t 2017. So why in the world is New England favored??! 

Oh wait, I know…

Click here. It’s a Trap!

Steelers 20  Patriots 17

And there ya have it. The Week 2 Droppings…in a splash!

Season Total Straight Up Winners: 8-7-1

Season Total Against the Spread:  9-7

Lock of the Week Picks: 0-1

Trap Game of the Week:  1-0

Let's Ride: The Bird’s Week 1 NFL Picks

I've said it before and I'll say it again: Nothing in the great circle of modern American existence so intensely rekindles hope’s flame like the beginning of the NFL season.

Please, take a moment to enhance the mood:

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In fact, a new NFL season is the only way that people living in decrepit places like East Rutherford can wash the collective bile from their mouths after having suffered the indignity of residing in such a locale for yet another year.

But enough about the rekindled aspirations of perennial losers from cities that smell like poo. These are The Bird Droppings and last year we raked thru the NFL season with precision and astuteness, going 190-101 overall and 153-135-3 against the spread. 

Pats on the back aside, last year is behind us. You can’t hit new heights by surfing old waves, so let’s grab a new one and hang ten. Looking ahead to 2022, what more can I say other than to parrot the war cry of my beloved Broncos’ new leader:

Bird Droppings…Let’s Ride.

A Bird’s Eye View (Select games and analysis)

Pittsburgh at Cincinnati (-6.5)

First off. I am not one who believes the Bengals are going to be anywhere near as good as they finished last season. I still recall a Week 14 matchup last year where 7-6 Cincinnati visited 7-6 Denver in a game pitting two desperately average clubs playing for the right to remain “in the hunt” in the AFC. The Bengals won a 15-10 fart-chaser of a game and… well, we all know what happened from there.

That being said, I do like them this Sunday opening at home with some Queen City swagger not seen since The Bird was first growing arm pit hair and the Berlin Wall was crumbling.

Six and a half points is a hefty spread for any divisional matchup, but this trip to Riverfront Stadium is going to be hell for a hated rival who has spent the better part of Terry Bradshaw's existence beating the crap out of teams from Ohio. (Editor's note: The Bird knows it is no longer Riverfront, but he has a disease where he still refers to NFL stadiums by what they were called during his childhood.)

The flames of hope, excitement, and Steeler comeuppance will be fanned with great vigor this weekend and I think the pre-kickoff Jumbotron video montage of 2021’s Super Bowl run will be worth 7 pts alone. Did I mention Pittsburgh is following Mitch Trubisky into this jungle?

Take the Bengals, minus the points.

Bengals 31  Steelers 17

Tampa Bay at Dallas (+2.5)

The Buccaneers are widely considered to be the class of the NFC. They’ve been in the thick of the championship calculations for several years now, they’ve won a recent Lombardi trophy, and their QB is that soulless bastard who has played in more Super Bowls than twenty other teams combined. Their defense is young and stout, and they have an inspired Todd Bowles donning the coach’s headset instead of that guy who looked like he owned Jurassic Park. 

The Cowboys, last I checked, still have the ever-cerebral Mike McCarthy calling the shots and haven’t sniffed a Conference title since I was in college and the Spice Girls owned MTV and a spot on our fraternity wall.

That all being said, I like Dallas here. Allow me to explain: When the Cowboys are 7-3 and playing right into the hopes and dreams of their loyally stupid fanbase, look for them to crap the bed like Amber Heard and limp into their annual 8 win finish. Until then though, watch them get all of Cowboy Nation excited as hell. Dallas certainly covers. I predict they might even win outright. 

Cowboys 27  Buccaneers 24

Indianapolis (-7) at Houston

I think it's safe to say that the Cleveland Browns and Houston-area masseuses equally had the league’s most tumultuous off-season. Well then, the Houston-area football team had the most disastrous.

The Texans will sport new alternate helmets for select games this year. 

When your Plan B is a dude named Davis Mills handing off to a guy named Marlon while throwing to a bunch of schmendricks not named DeAndre Hopkins or Will Fuller, and your defense is a basic scheme of hoping the other team doesn’t realize JJ Watt has left, well… you can rest easy Colts fans and south Texas massage ladies.  

Matt Ryan’s Indy debut is going to go very well me thinks.

Colts 34  Dumpster Fires 17

 

Baltimore (-6.5) at New York Jets

Baltimore was 8-4 last year and in the driver’s seat in the AFC North before Lamar Jackson suffered his season ending injury and they lost all 5 of their remaining games. Let’s not forget that.

The Jets finished 4-13 with their quarterback of the future (who again has been sidelined before his second season even begins) and who apparently spends his off-field time boning his mom’s friends. To be fair, let’s not forget that either.

One team’s QB is back in action; healthy, eager to redeem his team’s title hopes, and in the motivational throes of playing in a contract year. The other team’s guy is out with a bum knee and in the motivational throes of giving his mom’s old college friend a candle lit back rub last night.

Easy peasy.

Ravens 27  Jets 17

Bet the Nest  (Lock of the week)

New York Giants at Tennessee (-5.5)

For 9 months Tennessee has had to live with the halitosis of winning last year’s AFC 1-seed and home field advantage, only to watch Ryan Tannehill channel his inner Kerry Collins and f— it all up.

Meanwhile Giants fans continue to hope that someday Daniel Jones will channel his inner Kerry Collins as a general sign of improvement. This is not good.

Look for the Titans to rage a little. 

Titans 27  Giants 9

 

Fox in the Hen House  (Trap game of the week) 

New England at Miami (-3.5)

Under normal circumstances, placing my confidence behind any team wearing aquamarine tights generates excessive reflux. Also under normal circumstances, anytime you can get points with a Bill Belichick Patriots team against any opponent as shitty as Miami, you should take them and run. 

I mean, who in the name of Sam Wynn Casino would ever pit a team that finished 7-10 against a perennial playoff team coached by Throw Mama From the Train and then make them nearly 4 point favorites?

Yet here we are, staring at the Dolphins as solid favorites going into the opener. *scratches head*

Despite all this, I think I get it. Miami is a horrible place to be this time of year, let alone while wearing football gear. With the eastern seaboard averaging a heat index that rivals satan’s living room, and the fact that since it’s Week 1 we can imagine more than 950 fans showing up, there should be a bona fide home field advantage at play. 

It feels like a trap, but clearly the smart money seems to be going toward the home team. I’ll bite. 

Dolphins 24 Patriots 20

Kill Two (or more) Birds with One Stone (The rest of the picks)

Buffalo at LA Rams  (+2.5)

Not since we all tuned in to see who shot J.R. has a season opener been so intriguing. You could bet either team here and not be called crazy, which is usually an indicator that you should stay away and just enjoy it. Bills 31  Rams 30

San Francisco at Chicago (+6.5)

Trey Lance vs. Justin Fields and one of the two has an O-Line that leaks like Edward Snowden at an NSA mixer. I’ll take Chicago with a back door cover but San Fran definitely wins. 49’ers 20  Bears 16

Philadelphia at Detroit (+4.5)

Restore the Roar.  Lions 26  Eagles 23  OT

Jacksonville at Washington (-2.5)

I’ve cancelled my cable package simply so I don’t accidentally see any of this game. Since I have the Jacksonville running back on my fantasy team, I feel safe picking him to suck and the home team to win. Commanders 23  Jaguars 20

New Orleans at Atlanta (+5.5)

‘Nawlins gets Jameis Winston back and I don’t know if that’s a good thing or a bad thing. The Dirty Birds roll with Marcus Marriota and I realize I am equally flummoxed on this too. Saints 30  Falcons 27

Kansas City (-5) at Arizona

Arizona’s roster resembles a MASH unit. Kansas City’s does not. Chiefs 31  Cardinals 17

Cleveland at Carolina (+1.5)

No one expects him to be Cam Newton, but if Baker Mayfield can drum up -at a minimum!- the fond memories of Steve Burlein or Jake Delhomme, Panther Nation will be happy. It’s also Week 1, which means Christian McCaffrey hasn’t broken or torn anything yet. Panthers 26 Browns 17

Green Bay at Minnesota (+1.5)

Green Bay seems to always start slow. And by “start slow” I mean “gets blown out in Week 1.”  Vikings 30 Packers 20

Las Vegas at LA Chargers (-3.5)

Too much fire power from the home team and I hate the visitors.  Chargers 31  Raiders 21

Denver at Seattle (+6.5)

If there’s one game all season that Pete Carrol and Seattle will be ready for, it’s this one. Six and a half seems like a big number to cover on this road trip so I’ll take the underdogs plus the points. Broncos 27 Seahawks 24  

And so it begins, my friends! Good luck!