Serenity Now! The Bird's Week 8 NFL Picks

Serenity now! We are dangerously close to one of those “What Would Costanza Do?” issues, where The Bird deploys a stratagem of picking the exact opposite of what I think might happen because that seems to be the way of NFL karma lately.

An anemic Chicago offense hanging 40 on the Patriots in Foxboro? Aaron Rodgers being outplayed by Zach Wilson and Taylor Heinicke? A Tom Brady team falling from grace like a blind roofer?

Stop the madness!

We’re one more whacky week away from a kale shake cleanse to shock the system back into favored results, but for now we’ll just monitor the situation. My picks are suffering, but not totally. Yet…

On with Week 8!

Bird’s Eye View 

Baltimore (-1.5) at Tampa Bay

Tom Brady hasn’t been on a 3-4 team in twenty years. Which means he hasn’t been on a 3-5 team in at least just as long. Welp, he won’t be able to say that come Monday.

A lot of talk this week about how “exhausted” TB12 looks. As noted in last week’s blog: I agree.

Ravens 24  Buccaneers 17

Denver at Jacksonville (-2.5)

I’m still trying to fathom having a defense that has given up just 7 touchdowns in 7 weeks… and being 2-5.

Did you know… In six of their seven games the Denver Broncos have scored 16 points or less. Now consider that if they had just scored 18 points in those games… they would be 6-1 right now. Ouch.

Enjoy the soccer match, England.

Jaguars 15  Broncos 12

Arizona at Minnesota (-3.5)

In the “Game I’ve Given Almost Zero Thought To, However I Have a Strong Feel About” game of the week, I like Minnie here. Skol.

Vikings 31  Cardinals 27

Miami (-3) at Detroit

High up on the side of a mountain called "We Can’t Keep Sucking Forever, Right?” we have two climbers sharing a ledge. One is repelling down; the other climbing. Miami wins and covers. 

Dolphins 29  Lions 18

Chicago (+9.5) at Dallas

Ten points is a lot to give until you remember you’re giving them to the Bears. Well, that’s what I would have said a week ago.

Then Chicago pulls that crap last Monday and completely has everyone scratching their head.

Gimme a beat! The Bears have earned 
at least 9 1/2 points of respect.

Because they just bitch-slapped the Patriots in a way that Ditka would be proud of, I suppose the Janet Jackson “What have you done for me lately” theory applies. Pair that with Zeke Elliot’s bad knee, and I’ll take da Bears to cover as road dogs. They won’t win though.

Cowboys 26  Bears 17

Las Vegas (-1.5) at New Orleans

I’m going to go out on a limb and predict Andy Dalton only throws three interceptions this week. Still too many.

Raiders 27  Saints 23

Carolina (+4.5) at Atlanta

Within the fire sale trades and their interim head coaching situation, Carolina added to the chaos last week with a surprise shellacking of Tampa Bay that no one saw coming.

I think they have officially crossed over into “these guys are so shitty, no one wants to play them” territory.

Falcons 25  Panthers 21

New England (-2.5) at New York Jets

I don't want to alarm anyone, but it's Week 8 and the Jets have the second best record in the AFC.

The last time the Jets looked this good was
that time Broadway Joe was throwing moon balls
to Bobby Brady in Mike and Carol’s backyard.

I don’t like the fact that New York’s undefeated October has come with wins against the hapless Steelers, the trauma-ward Dolphins, the kooky Packers and the CU Buffs— I mean, the Broncos— but at some point you have to give credit where credit is due and recognize 4 wins in a row is 4 wins in a row and you should never apologize for the schedule makers.

That being said, they lost their two best offensive players last week, and they play a pissed off Belichick this week.

Pats rebound.

Patriots 23  Jets 20

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia (-10.5)

Try as they might with a rookie QB and injuries all over the place, Pittsburgh is in a really bad spot here.

It’s the second game of a back-to-back road trip, against the league’s best team coming off their bye, in a city that is punch-drunk on undefeated football and World Series baseball.

It won’t quite be Rocky-Clubber Lang, or even Thunderlips for that matter. But I could definitely see this being a Glass Joe kinda night for the visitors.

Green Corner wins with a knockout.

Eagles 34  Steelers 17

New York Giants (+3) at Seattle

Don't look now, but the Giants and Seahawks are putting together surprisingly remarkable seasons. With Daniel Jones and Geno Smith, no less.

I’ve found the G-Men to be very very good as underdogs this season, so I will continue to bleed blue whenever getting points with these guys.

As for picking a straight up winner:  *throws dart*

Giants 20  Seahawks 17  OT

San Francisco (-1.5) at LA Rams

What we've learned from Buffalo, San Fran, and Dallas in the past 2 months, is if you punch the defending champs in the mouth they will fold faster than Super Man on laundry day.

The Rams have not put up much of a fight
when challenged by the big dogs this season.

The last time these two met, it was less Tyson-Holyfield and more Tyson-McNeely. I like the gold diggers to get the season sweep of their NFC West rivals.

49’ers 24  Rams 21

Washington (+3) at Indianapolis

How do we celebrate the long-anticipated Carson Wentz vs. Matt Ryan Bowl?

With Taylor Heinicke and Sam Ehlinger of course!

Because Colts QB’s making their first start are 1-15 since 1970, I’ll go with the trend and pick Sam Ehlinger to lose. Which means Washington covers. But I don’t like this game, and if I were asked to bet on it, I’d make like Rosie O’Donnell at a salad bar and avoid it altogether.

Commanders 19  Colts 17

Cincinnati (-3) at Cleveland

In at least two counties and a few bars, this game is still known in Ohio as the "You Don’t Live in Cleveland!” game.

Click here to relive the greatest P.A. Announcement ever

Hard to go against the guys who don’t live in Cleveland right now, although I just heard Ja’Mar Chase is out for 4-6 weeks. Ugh. 

Bengals 27  Browns 23

Bet the Nest

Green Bay at Buffalo (-10.5)

I cannot be convinced to take anyone against Buffalo at this point, unless the spread is at least double digits and the underdog is allowed to schedule Tanya Harding's crow bar guy for a little pregame warm up with Josh Allen.

I’m going to assume the latter was not arranged.

For the second week in a row I am picking a double-digit favorite and calling them a lock. And for the second week in a row I am right.

Bills 37  Packers 20

Fox in the Hen House

Tennessee (-2.5) at Houston

Normally I would take Tennessee on the fact alone that they are 4-0 when they play mediocre-to-slightly-bad teams. Then I remembered that Houston is getting stomped by mediocre and slightly bad teams.

Nothing to contemplate here, except… why is the line only two and a half points???

Oh wait, I know:

It’s a Trap!

Titans 24  Texans 13

🔔 Ding! Ding! Ding! 🔔   Round 8!

Season Total Straight Up Winners: 64-43-1

Season Total Against the Spread:  60-48

Lock of the Week Picks: 5-2

Trap Game of the Week:  2-5

Sh*t Happens, Man: A Russell Wilson Soliloquy & The Bird’s Week 7 Picks

What's the old saying? You can put lipstick on a pig, but at the end of the day Russell Wilson is still your quarterback?

Egads. I have so much to say here and yet, I don’t even want to. Ok, since you asked…

My general assessment, from an admitted “untrained eye,” is that DangerRuss, quite frankly, is done. And not for the reasons you would think.

In my opinion Russ Wilson is done because football no longer seems to be his priority. It’s been in front of our eyes since last April yet only now is it blatantly obvious. The social events, the commercials, the spur-of-the-moment trips to other states to surprise Ciara at her social events, the personal camera crew that follows him around, the charity functions, the Trump-like obsession with daily social media postings…

This guy is simply too involved in too many things for football to ever be the 100%, unequivocal priority. Which in many instances, doesn’t matter. But when you’re a $250 million dollar face-of-the-franchise organizational leader, it does.

Look. There’s no way an 11-year vet, Super Bowl champ and 9x Pro Bowler, should be this far behind in grasping an offense he was handed the owner’s manual to six months ago. Missed wide receivers streaking towards green pastures with everything but a ball in their hands. Non-Audibles when it is clear the current play is matched up against disaster. Check downs and misreads. Let’s ride hide.

RW3 simply isn’t eating, drinking, and sleeping football anymore, and hasn’t been since he got here. Maybe since even before he got here. 

Say what you will about crappy coaching and remedial play calling, this is the only thing that makes any logical sense to me. Because normally, quarterbacks of this caliber can hide those other things. Instead, Nathaniel Hackett looks more like Buddy Hackett because his quarterback is the guy at the talent show spinning plates.

RUSSELL WILSON HAS A LOT GOING ON
Oopsie. Almost lost the season there…Caught it!
 Let’s Ride promotional video: get back up there ya rascal!
Uh-oh, flight to LA to kiss Ciara on tv almost fell!
Get Well card for Garret Bowles, I’m comin’!

I dunno. Maybe it’s a stage-of-life thing. AT&T knows I don’t put as much relentless effort into my job as I did twelve years ago. And neither, it seems, does Mr. Unlimited.

Today’s young stars (Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, e.g.) exude a 24/7 passion and hunger—nay, obsession— for the game they play; Wilson, Rodgers and even the almighty Tom Brady used to as well. But now they seem distracted. Football is no longer the be-all, end-all in life. And maybe that’s the arc of life itself for quarterbacks (and telecommunication managers).

Tom Brady said it best to reporters this summer when he took an unexplained absence from Tampa’s preseason; an absence that we can now deduce was to care for personal matters at home: “I’m 45 years old, man. Shit’s happening.”

Unfortunately, for those of us with aging quarterbacks who once winged spirals with tameless hunger for records and rings, shit is indeed happening. Shit besides football. And it’s happening for the next 6 years in Broncos Country, so help us all. 

Anyway, Let’s keep riding, I guess… 

Last week Bird Droppings, Inc. shit the bed magnificently, going 5-9 straight up, and sullying my overall ATS record with a 6-8 mark betting the line. Hell, it’s almost as if I’m not eating, drinking, and sleeping my picks anymore! “Shit’s happening, man.” 

Sigh. Russell, Russell, Russell.

If you’ve read this far, perhaps you’d like to see some picks? And if not, that’s ok. Every other thought is about the plight of my Denver Broncos anyway. So the analysis is lacking.

Bird’s Eye View 

New Orleans at Arizona (-2.5)

I’ll take Arizona with a confidence level of “because they don’t employ Andy Dalton, who is 0-11 in his last 11 Prime Time starts.”

Cardinals 23  Saints 20

Was Melvin Gordon seriously crying on the sidelines Monday night? Well, at least he didn’t fumble.

Indianapolis at Tennessee (-2.5)

Since the Bills are on their bye week, we’ve come to the one game all season where I am forced to start the fantasy football QB on my roster who is not named Josh Allen. Oh, the horror.

Due to this, Matt Ryan (yep, my FFL guy this week) is all but guaranteed to smoke a turd on Sunday.

Titans 20  Colts 16

Wilson had minus -9 passing yards after halftime??

 

New York Giants (+3) at Jacksonville

Who would have imagined this being a completely viable matchup at this point in the season? I’ll really like the Giants getting points here, and on the heels of Saquon Barkley I’ll go ahead and pick them to win the Tom Coughlin Cup (which shouldn’t be confused for Tom Coughlin’s cup).

Giants 23  Jaguars 22

1st & 10: Latavius Murray for 5 yards. 2nd & 5: Murray for 4.5 yards. 3rd & < 1: Shotgun, spread it out & throw 13 yards downfield into the dirt. SMH.

Green Bay (-4.5) at Washington

No former Jeopardy host has ever lost consecutive games to Daniel Jones, Zach Wilson, and Taylor Heinicke, have they?

What is, “No?”

Packers 27  Commanders 17

Pass interference. Defense, Number 27. Ball will placed at the spot of the foul. First down! 

Detroit at Dallas (-7)

Any squad that allows 29 points and scores none of their own against a team with a rookie QB named Bailey Zappe making his first ever start can only be classified as God Awful. And that’s our Detroit Lions.

Dallas gets a shot in the arm this week offensively. Call it a Dakccination.

Cowboys 27  Lions 17

Did the Donkeys seriously just lose to a team who kicked 4 field goals with a kicker whose hamstring was rolled up like a snap bracelet?

Dustin Hopkins’ hammy demonstration.

Atlanta at Cincinnati (-6)

I’ll take Joe Burrow here for all the things I said above about dudes who are consumed with being the best damn quarterback they can be.

Bengals 31  Falcons 23

With 2:14 left in the game last Monday, Wilson was sacked on a blitz almost as soon as the ball hit his hands. The Chargers didn’t even try to disguise it. It all happened in less than 2 seconds and had a visual effect as if LA sent twenty men the moment the ball was snapped. HOW does a veteran QB with Russ’s experience NOT see that coming pre-snap, and audible out of the play?

Cleveland at Baltimore (-6)

Aw, the annual Art Model Bowl (which shouldn’t be confused for the Tom Coughlin Cup).

Cleveland looks every part like a team on the brink of folding it up for the 31st time in 32 years. 

And Baltimore? Well, as far as big leads are concerned, the Ravens blow them like a hooker at a bubblegum convention.

The Ravens lost each of these games 👆
otherwise they might be 6-0.

If they’re smart, Baltimore will keep it close or perhaps even let their opponent rush out to a 4th quarter lead this time. That way, they won’t have to worry about crapping themselves down the stretch.

Ravens 29  Browns 22

Still pondering that last Russell Wilson thought. Can we get an “Omaha!” or any kind of pre-snap audible there? A timeout even?

Tampa Bay at Carolina (+10.5)

Tom Brady may have shit going on, and trust me when I say impending divorce is a big concentration breaker… but this is Carolina and TB12 is coming off that embarrassing loss to Kenny Pickett and an atrocious Steelers team.

Bucs win, but last week I swore off of betting Tampa to cover anything over 8 points ever again for as long as I shall live.

Buccaneers 22  Panthers 13

So long as Denver’s offense keeps doing that thing they do, which is Nothing, I’d kill for a Kenny Pickett.

New York Jets at Denver (-1.5)

Here I’ve been making fun of Zach Wilson all season when reality is, he’s made it further than Sam Darnold, Joe Flacco, Mark Sanchez, and even Chester Copperpot to leading the Goonies to One-Eyed Willie’s treasure.

This is our time! Our time, down here.

If a ragtag bunch of youngins from Astoria can go into Lambeau and lay it on Rodgers and the Pack, then they can most assuredly go into Denver and be better than Wilson and the Broncos.

Against my better judgement (what’s new?), I’m going to pick Denver one last time to win, but it’ll be uglier than Mama Fratelli. Jets cover.

Broncos 17  Jets 15

Not to beat a tired drum, but watch the QB’s in this one. Which one is “at work” for the 12th straight year on a Sunday and has a “thing” to attend to later with the Mrs., plus a jersey signing and three Twitter accounts to update before Monday?

Seattle at LA Chargers (-5)

LA kickstarted their season last week and has a bye after this. All incentives for moving to 5-2 and setting up a second half run at the playoffs.

Chargers 30  Seahawks 20

Melvin Gordon plays only 9 snaps last week and essentially gets benched mid-game. He spends the wee hours of that night tweeting all over social media his desire to get out of Denver. Coach Hackett meets with Mr. Disgruntled on Wednesday and announces Melvin Gordon will start on Sunday. What the hell?

Kansas City at San Francisco (+3)

Don’t look now but the Chiefs are in a tight spot on their schedule. Out of sheer hatred for other AFC West teams I’m gonna lean toward San Fran’s defense at home, coming off an embarrassing loss to Atlanta, and Kansas City’s growing tendency to look like normal human beings at times this season. 

Niners cover as home dogs. I’m gonna will my desire that they pull off the upset altogether.

49’ers 24  Chiefs 23

Coach Hackett. 🙄

Pittsburgh at Miami (-6.5)

For a moment there this season the Dolphins were interesting and sexy. Now they are slightly less interesting and the exact opposite of sexy.

This kind of makes them like Kelly McGillis.

Left: Miami with Tua Tagovailoa. 
Right: Miami without Tua Tagovailoa.

Since Tua is back, I’ll go with sexy Miami.

Dolphins 23  Steelers 16

Chicago at New England (-8)

One team has rattled off three wins in a row by an accumulated score of 67-15. Their only loss in the past month was on the road to a respectable opponent on the day we all learned who Bailey Zappe is.

 

The other team is 2-4 and coming off a 12-7 loss to those juggernauts, the Washington Commanders.

Seems like easy math here.

Patriots 31  Bears 20

Bet the Nest 🔒

Houston at Las Vegas (-7)

If Las Vegas enjoyed trying to keep up with that fireworks show known as "Chiefs Football" in the Arrowhead night two weeks ago, imagine how much fun will be had playing with sparklers (Davis Mills & Co.) in the Nevada desert. Probably a lot.

Raiders 27  Texans 7

Fox in the Hen House 🪤

I keep looking at several of these games and more than a couple of spreads feel trappy. Since it is almost time to publish and I can’t make up my mind, I’m just gonna go with my gut and refer you all to my Jets-Broncos pick above.

Why on earth is the team with the all of the troubles documented in this blog —from overwhelmed quarterbacks to crying running backs, and everything inbetween— favored against an upstart team of young fire and energy and who just throttled Green Bay in Green Bay?

I’ll tell ya why. It’s a booty trap!

Holy Mary, Mother of God. There they are. The Week 7 Droppings! 

Season Total Straight Up Winners: 56-37-1

Season Total Against the Spread:  51-43

Lock of the Week Picks: 4-2

Trap Game of the Week:  2-4

Whaddya say, coach?

Unnecessary Unnecessary Roughness: The Bird’s Week 6 NFL Picks

Warning: this blog was just flagged for roughing the passer.

C'mon, NFL. What are we doing here? Ugh.

With my left eye still twitching from witnessing Grady Jarrett and Chris Jones getting completely screwed out of key sacks last weekend, all I can really do is move on and pray the NFL figures this out. Kinda like when they realized after the 2019 season that they really shouldn’t be proactively looking for holding on every single play.

Some things truly don’t need over-legislating. And even more things than that can (and should be) trusted simply to common sense and passing the “eye test.”

👆These were penalties…??? 👇

I know people who hug more aggressively.

For shame, for shame. Let’s move on.

Last week I was a pedestrian 9-7 Against the Spread, but a respectable 11-5 picking the straight up winners. As for Week 6... I've busted out my pleather pants and I’m going all Mad Max again. Of the 14 games, I like 9 road teams against the spread.

Note: mercifully, the Lions, Titans, Raiders and Texans are all taking the week off, so no one has to worry about seeing any of that.

Here we go!

A Bird’s Eye View

Washington at Chicago (+1)

Just when I thought the duck-billed platypus and Nathaniel Hackett were the only mammals who laid eggs, the NFL schedule maker follows up that Broncos-Colts disaster with this beauty.

I suppose if given the choice between picking this game and taking a swift kick to the weiner, I'd say something lacking conviction like, "I'll take the Bears instead of getting kicked in the junk, please." 

Bears 22  Commanders 20

Minnesota (-3.5) at Miami

I was thinking back on the Dolphins' 40-17 debacle last Sunday in East Rutherford— another QB concussed, Tyreek Hill injured, losing by 20+ to the Jets, etc.— hoping to find any sliver of light to shine on Miami’s football team.

Looking. Looking... Man. It's darker than Teddy Bridgewater’s butthole in here.

If the Dolphins had either: A) a fully healthy Tua Tagovailoa at quarterback or B) a fully healthy quarterback besides Tua Tagovailoa but not named Skylar Thompson starting, I'd take them plus the points. Since it is likely they will not have either, I give the edge to Minnesota.

Vikings 23  Dolphins 17

New England (+3.5) at Cleveland

A few weeks ago it would have been easy to pick Cleveland here. But... they are the Browns. 

So long as I get to add 3 1/2 points to New England's score, I’ll bet the road dawgs. Cleveland may win but New England covers.

Browns 20  Patriots 17

San Francisco (-5.5) at Atlanta 

I really have no reason to go against San Fran's defense at this point, any more than I really have no reason to go with Atlanta's offense. Welp, this pick just made itself.

49'ers 28  Falcons 17

Tampa Bay at Pittsburgh (+8.5)

Two clashes of gambler's fallacy are at odds here:

1. Tampa has proved more than once they should never be counted on to cover any spread bigger than 7 points.
2. Pittsburgh proved last week that, even when given 14 points, they are likely to still go out and lose by 3x that amount.

Sigh.

I hate Sophie's Choice, but I suppose if a Nazi stuck his Luger in my face and demanded I choose… I would take Pittsburgh to cover at home (even with a rookie QB making his second ever start) because, well, Tampa has bombed as heavy faves way too many times in the last two seasons. That, and this is not Buffalo in Buffalo. Which should feel a lot more accommodating for the Steel men.

Buccaneers 21  Steelers 19

Cincinnati (-1.5) at New Orleans

I keep picking Cincinnati’s games the same way Michele de Nostredame used to write Leś Prophéties from his ink and quill desk in 1673 France.

The Bird has been Nostradamus-like this season 
whilst predicting Cincinnati’s future. 

Why stop now?

Bengals 30  Saints 27

Baltimore (-5.5) at New York Giants

New York seems to have found their bygone form of run-the-ball, smash mouth football. Or, at the very least, they have found a way to beat up on teams that lose to schlubs like the Lions or have psychedelic quarterbacks who are completely disinterested in playing games in Limeytown.

Since Baltimore is neither of these things, this game should be a true test of just how solid the Giants are.

The two best running backs in the NFL will be on display here, and I think the Ravens’ QB is the better of the two. I don't see New York keeping up with Lamar Jackson to be honest.

Ravens 26  G-Men 19

Jacksonville (+1.5) at Indianapolis

Other than losing to a bunch of resiliency-proof turds like the Houston Texans, I didn't see Jacksonville do anything overly stupid last week. Meanwhile Indianapolis lucked out by beating an increasingly incapable Denver team in extra innings.

Jaguars 26  Colts 23

New York Jets at Green Bay (-7)

I don’t wear a foam cheddar wedge on my head on Sundays, so I feel like I can be honest with you about the Packers.

I give them benefit of the doubt for being better than their record shows, even though it's hard to ignore the fact that they have struggled mightily against teams who start young, crappy quarterbacks but have super hero running backs.

Conversely, the Jets are hot at 3-2, have a young, crappy quarterback, and a running back who went off for 200 yds last week. Yet I can't seem to convince myself that they are really all that good.

I’m hesitant, but I like the Pack to finally put together four full quarters of quality football this week.

Packers 31  Jets 23

Arizona (-3) at Seattle

This week I trust Kyler Murray won’t slide until after he’s reached the line to gain. And at some point Geno Smith will stop looking like Warren Moon… right? 

Cardinals 24  Seahawks 17

Buffalo (-2.5) at Kansas City

I’m not even gonna screw this one up by saying anything. Let’s just all enjoy the AFC Championship.

Bills 34  Chiefs 31

Dallas (+6.5) at Philadelphia

It's quite possible that I have underestimated the entire NFC East. Well, the three quarters of it that doesn’t play in our nation's capital, at least.

The Eagles showed they are beatable last week while the Cowboys continue to flex some serious defensive muscles. 

This has “field goal game” written all over it which means I’m taking the points. TBH, I like the Cowboys to pull the upset and with that the ’72 Dolphins can pop another cork. 

Cowboys 23  Eagles 20

Bet the Nest

Carolina at LA Rams (-10)

When picking any matchup other than a Nebraska Cornhusker non-conference game against Arkansas-Little Rock Technical College, it’s never wise to bet the team laying double-digit points and call them a lock.

But I feel like the Rams need to make a statement after being snuffed out like a Jeff Probst Survivor torch each of the past two weeks. If they can't do it at home against a 1-4 team who just fired their head coach and replaced their starting quarterback with the ever-dangerous PJ Walker, then it’s just time to stick a fork in LA.

They’ve lost two in a row. They’re desperate. They have to roll here. I say they will.

Rams 34  Panthers 13

Fox in the Hen House

Denver at LA Chargers (-4.5)

For the life of me, I can't figure out why the Chargers are only giving 4 1/2 points to a team who pretty much averages 9 points per game and displays some form of blatant stupidity every single week. Like, I don't know, constantly throwing from the shotgun inside the 5 yd line, throwing from the shotgun on 4th & 1 inside the 5 yd line, and then throwing from the shotgun on 4th & 1 inside the 5 yd line to the guy in triple coverage instead of the wide open guy screaming like a banshee for the ball.

For the first time since 1997, I did some math: LA is averaging 26 points per game, including 32 ppg in their last two. Denver is scoring points at the same pace as the Houston Astros.

Why is this only a 4 1/2 point spread? Whyyyy?

Me, thinking I have this
Chargers pick in the bag?

Looks too good to be true but I’m falling for it. Best case scenario— maybe my reverse jinx powers will equate to Denver turning their season around (insert hysterical laughter here.)

Chargers 23  Broncos 13

You've been Bird Dropped! And flags have been thrown. Ridiculous15 yard penalty coming up.

Season Total Straight Up Winners: 51-28-1

Season Total Against the Spread:  45-35

Lock of the Week Picks: 3-2

Trap Game of the Week:  2-3

High Five: The Bird's Week 5 NFL Picks

High fives for make benefit of good picks, yes?

We sparkled at 12-4 Against The Spread last week, and 12-4 straight up. This is what I’m here for, bitches!

No need to say more. Let’s keep it going!

Week 5, here we go…

A Bird’s Eye View (picks and analysis)

Indianapolis at Denver (-3.5)

As if the coaching, play calling and overall results haven’t been challenging enough, now Denver is coming awfully close to meeting their deductible and it’s not even week 6.

Live look inside the Broncos’ team meetings this week.

Since the Miami Dolphins’ medical team isn't involved, I feel confident that none of Denver’s crippled guys will be cleared to play this week. 

All of that having been said, this does feel like a game where Denver can “get right.” Offensively, defensively, and everywhere else they are currently not kosher. At some point they’re going to… right?

Broncos 27  Colts 20

New York Giants (+8) at Green Bay

Again we tip our caps of condolence to those fluoride-deprived folks still mourning the loss of their Queen by sending over the very first game in the history of the London NFL series to actually pit two teams with winning records. God save the King.

I haven’t quite put my finger on why the Packers aren’t better than they’ve shown, and I know they will break out of it at some point, but Tottenham, England is not historically the place for feeling good about oneself. And Aaron Rodgers doesn’t even want to be there.

Green Bay wins, New York covers.

Packers 27  Giants 20

Detroit at New England (-2.5)

When your quarterback options are Brian Hoyer and some cat named Bailey Zappe, usually you are hosed. That is, unless your head coach is a grumpy old woman who roots for the Germans in war films.

Belichick rallying the Wehrmacht for this
week’s blitzkrieg against Detroit.

The Lions, meanwhile, are still somehow the Lions.

I’ll lean towards the Pats here to annoyingly find a way. Yes, with Bailey Zappe. Classic New England.

Patriots 23  Lions 20

Atlanta at Tampa Bay (-9)

Let’s see.

Tom Brady hasn’t lost 3 games in a row in TWENTY years. And now it appears he and Giselle are heading for divorce?

I don’t even have to consider Julio Jones’ return to Atlanta to know that Tom Brady 'bout to go to pound town on the dirty birds.

No Corderrelle Patterson and no Kyle Pitts for Atlanta doesn’t help to talk me out if this either.

Buccaneers 30  Falcons 14

Pittsburgh (+14) at Buffalo

Jesus, even for a team lane-changing from Mitch Trubisky to a rookie with tiny hands, that’s a lot of damn points. 

Pittsburgh’s defense is going to be busier than a one-legged man in a butt-kicking contest just trying to lay hands on Buffalo, let alone stop them.

I’ll assume the Bills pull all of their starters by the 4th quarter and Pittsburgh is able to sneak in a late score to cover a two touchdown spread. Then again, Buffalo might win by thirty.

Bills 30  Steelers 17

Miami at New York Jets (+3.5)

This is a tough one. 

While I've always respected that they never abuse the emotions of their fans by deluding them with illusions of greatness, the Jets do have some hope and momentum now as the Zach Wilson era is finally here for the third time.

On the other side you have the Teddy Bridgewater Dolphins.

I probably won’t respect myself in the morning, but give me the Jets and the points.

Miami wins ugly. I pick uglier.

Dolphins 20  Jets 17

Seattle (+5.5) at New Orleans

One of my rules in life is that whenever a team that is finding ways to win games plays a foe that is just as good at finding ways to lose them, always bet on the former.

With a credo like that, the nagging question of whether or not Erik the Red— I mean, Andy Dalton— starts again for New Orleans or not, is no longer relevant to this game.

Either way I like Seattle getting points against a 1-3 team who just flew in from Heathrow.

Saints 27  Seahawks 24

Houston at Jacksonville (-7)

I saw in this week’s power rankings that Houston is #32. Personally, I think that’s too high.

Jaguars 30  Texans 15

Tennessee (-2.5) at Washington

Tennessee seems to have found a bit of themselves while Washington is folding faster than Superman on laundry day.

Titans 23  Commanders 13

LA Chargers (-2.5) at Cleveland

Brutal loss for the Browns last week, which marks the second time this season the plain helmets have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory just like any good soul from Cuyahoga County would do.

Justin Herbert continues to get healthier, Keenan Allen is back, and the Chargers represent the first real defense Cleveland has had to face. None of this bodes well for the home team.

Chargers 27  Browns 24

Dallas (+5.5) at LA Rams

Last Monday night the Rams looked as if they have never handled a pass rush before. It was concerning. This is not at all how you wanna be against a defense who is turning opposing QBs into Mr. Incredible when he gets pummeled by those black blobs.

This could be Matt Stafford if LA tries to block Micah Parsons the same way they “blocked” last Monday.

Last thought: with Dak still out for Dallas, America’s Team gets to start their better quarterback for at least one more week. Ah, serendipity.

I’m a little chicken to pick an outright win, mainly because… it’s Dallas. But I do like them getting 5.5 points as underdogs.

Rams 20  Cowboys 17

Philadelphia (-5.5) at Arizona

Never bail on riding a tubular wave that shows no signs of crashing. Any lazy ass who lives a mile above sea level and has never surfed, but has seen Point Break a million times knows this.

I’m taking Gang Green again.

Eagles 29  Cardinals 22

Cincinnati (+3) at Baltimore

Maybe its because Baltimore has literally trailed for only :14 seconds this entire season(!) and are somehow 2-2, but I feel like they are the better team here.

Then again. when you blow 31-14 and 20-3 leads so easily, maybe you aren’t the 4-0 team trapped in a 2-2 body that I think you are.

The Ravens? Overrated. Biochemically no different
than eating large quantities of chocolate.

With devil's advocate thinking like this, I have no choice but to take Cincy and the points.

Ravens 26  Bengals 24

Las Vegas at Kansas City (-7.5)

Las Vegas is undoubtedly full of themselves after smashing Denver last week, but if Russell Wilson can throw for 250 yards and 2 TDs against the Raiders, then surely Pat Mahomes will have about 900 yards and 5 TDs against them.

 

I'll put my money on the team that is coming home from a back-to-back road trip to pummel a team that, had they not been gifted the Denver Broncos last week, might still be winless.

Chiefs 37  Raiders 27

Bet the Nest (Lock of the Week)

San Francisco (-6) at Carolina

Random thought not related to picking this game: Last Monday night Deebo Samuel might have scored the best, single-man effort touchdown I’ve seen since that time Marshawn Lynch stiff-armed and bitch-slapped 11 Saints defenders on his way to the Beast Quake TD in the 2011 playoffs. Either that or the Rams just proved what most of us were already thinking: it is not the Golden Age of tackling in the NFL right now.

But I digress…

Since the 49’er D has given up exactly 9 points in each of the past two weeks to Matt Stafford- and Russell Wilson-lead offenses, I can safely assume a Baker Mayfield-lead team is in deep doo doo here.

In fact, I’d bet my kid’s bike on it.

Niners 24  Panthers 6

Fox in the Hen House (Trap Game of the Week)

Chicago (+7.5) at Minnesota

The Bears are a very crappy team playing on the road for the second straight week, this time against a divisional foe who has beaten them 3 out of 4 by an average margin of 10 pts.

They’ve only scored more than 12 points one time this season and that doesn’t count because it was against the Texans.

They run an offense as conservative as the Church Lady’s wardrobe.

They couldn’t score in a 5¢ whore house with a pocket full of nickels. 

I could go on and on…

Easy, right?

 

I have been masterful at sniffing out which games are traps; but horrible in trusting myself to put my money where my mouth is. Not this time.

Chicago covers. I’m tempted to call an outright upset/win. 

Vikings 20  Bears 17

Thanks for having some droppings with your tea and crumpets! Jimmy likes the Bird Droppings!

Season Total Straight Up Winners: 40-23-1

Season Total Against the Spread:  36-28

Lock of the Week Picks: 2-2

Trap Game of the Week:  1-3