‘Twas the Week Before Christmas: The Bird’s Week 16 NFL Picks

 The Week Before Christmas

'Twas the Week before Christmas and all through the nest,
The Bird’s picks were flailing but he’s doing his best;
You see Covid has hit a few NFL towns,
The Rams and the Lions; the Chargers and Browns;
The players were quarantined, all banned from their teams,
And picking these outcomes gets harder it seems;
With Goodell in his suit calling for protocol changes,
We've all seen our Sundays fraught with mass rearranges;
Washington and Philly; the Seahawks and Rams,
Just played on a Tuesday, what is this, a sham?
To the NFL Network I flew like a flash,
To do my best to forget that my Broncos are trash.
These games in December played without any snow,
Doesn’t change things one bit - this is still Tom Brady's show;
Though others would argue that’s not written as fact,
Murray, Mahomes and Rodgers and Dak, 
Or Stafford and Allen would say "not so quick,"
As would that coach from New England, the one who’s a dick.
More from some others who's hopes still remain,
It's really quite easy to list them by name;
"Now, Herbert! Now, Jackson! Now, Kelce and Dalvin!
On, Kittle! On, Taylor! On, Baker and Alvin!
To the top of the standings! To the Wild Card awning!
Score all you can, but don't get flagged for taunting!"
As whistles are blown for the stupidest flags,
I’ll say a quick eulogy for the Lions and Jags;
Or the Jets and the Texans; the Giants and Bears,
With the post-season coming, none of them will be there.
A few others are fading into "Welp, see ya laters,"
Like the Seahawks and Panthers; the Broncos and Raiders;
Von Miller is active, Derek Henry is not,
Whether Covid or injury it takes extra thought;
To make all these picks with constant changes to rosters,
And still beating Espn, Yahoo, and other pick'em imposters;
A bundle of picks straight from The Bird’s head,
The winners! The losers! Straight up! Against the spread!
He posts with a knowledge, although some weeks are iffy,
You can always get NFL advice in a jiffy;
So laying his finger aside of his nose,
And giving a nod, with some gridiron prose;
He sprang to his laptop, his fingers a strumming,
There’s no time to waste, the playoffs are coming;
Then hear him exclaim, as his picks keep on topping,
"Happy Christmas to all! Thanks for reading the Droppings!"

Here are the Week 16 picks, y’all. I do truly wish everyone the hap- hap- happiest Christmas since Bing Crosby tap danced with Danny F@#$! Kaye.  As always, thank you for reading!

San Francisco at Tennessee (+3.5)   Titans 27  49'ers 24

Cleveland at Green Bay (-7)   Packers 31  Browns 23

Indianapolis at Arizona (-1)  Cardinals 31 Colts 27

Tampa Bay (-10) at Carolina   Buccaneers 37  Panthers17

LA Chargers (-10) at Houston   Chargers 30  Texans 9

Buffalo (+2.5) at New England   Bills 27  Patriots 24

LA Rams at Minnesota (+2.5)   Rams 28  Vikings 27

Baltimore at Cincinnati (-3)   Bengals 22  Ravens 17

Detroit (+6) at Atlanta   Falcons 24  Lions 20

New York Giants at Philadelphia (-10)   Eagles 27 Giants 13

Jacksonville at New York Jets (pk)   Jets 20  Jaguars 14

Chicago at Seattle (-6.5)   Seahawks 29  Bears 17

Denver at Las Vegas (-1)   Raiders 27  Broncos 17

Pittsburgh (+8) at Kansas City   Chiefs 34  Steelers 27

Washington at Dallas (-10.5)   Dallas 30  Washington 17

Miami (+3) at New Orleans   Dolphins 23  Saints 21

Last Week Straight Up Winners: 10-6

Current Season Total Straight Up Winners: 137-87

Last Week Against the Spread: 9-7

Current Season Total Against Spread:  116-106-2

Playoff Practice Run: The Bird’s Week 15 NFL Picks

Don't let the Saturday games or the fact that the Jags and Texans are still playing fool you; the playoffs are here. 

Broncos-Bengals. Eagles-Skins. Titans-Steelers. Rams-Seahawks. Raiders-Browns. With so many teams who desperately need a win and who cannot afford any more losses, all playing against each other (!) this weekend, all we can do is strap ourselves in, tolerate Chris Collinsworth, and feel the G’s.

THIS. Is the unofficial start to the NFL postseason.

Gonna be an exciting Week 15!

 

Kansas City (-3) at Los Angeles Chargers

This game might see more scoring than Pamela Anderson’s old waterbed. The Bolts put up 30 the last time these two squared off, and given the growth of Justin Herbert in the twelve weeks since, it’s quite possible they hang 30 on the scoreboard again.  

Which means...  they'll only lose by 10 or so.

 

I like the Chefs.

Chiefs 41 Chargers 31

Las Vegas (-1) at Cleveland

The Raiders have been fizzling out like a two dollar bottle rocket, which normally would’ve made this the easiest pick of the week. But now we’re learning the Browns have the third most Covid cases of any county in Ohio, so this game all of a sudden got real scary, real fast.

What do I mean by “real fast?” Well, since the announcement Wednesday morning that Kevin Stefanski and Baker Mayfield were joining 17 other Browns on the “you’re a disgraceful threat to society” list, Cleveland fell from 7 point favorites to 1 point underdogs quicker than you can spell “CDC.”

The Covidland Browns will sport new
face masks for this Saturday’s game.

Throw in Kareem Hunt’s bad ankle, plus the lovely Lake Erie weather forecasted for Saturday, and all of a sudden we have a game that is very difficult to handicap between two teams that even Pfizer couldn’t save.

I’m actually starting to consider that, since the Raiders have been disgraceful threats to society long before Covid was even a thing, they might be better suited for this than poor old Cleveland.

Raiders 16  Browns 9

New England (+2.5) at Indianapolis

My immediate thought when I saw this game: how in the name of deflated footballs is the hottest team in the entire league an underdog here?

The Pats are to playoff runs as a shark is to blood, and now Bill Belichick is allowed to play on the motivation of being underdogs to a team he has won his last 9 games against?

Make it 10. New England gets another annoying victory. 

Patriots 23  Colts 20

Carolina at Buffalo (10.5)

Back on Halloween the Bills were 5-2 and not only in the thick of things atop the AFC, but looking unanimously like the conference favorite. Then that 9-6 loss to Jacksonville happened and they haven’t been the same since. 

Meanwhile Carolina might be the hottest mess of all the teams who didn’t fire a coach this week.

Buffalo gets a much needed cake walk.

Bills 26  Panthers 7

Houston at Jacksonville (-3)

Did someone say, “hot mess?” 

Anyone who saw last Sunday’s postgame handshake between Urban Meyer and Mike Vrabel could’ve seen this coming from a mile away. This guy has been cashed out ever since that Ohio State co-ed got away.

Click Link to See: Apathy at its finest.

The question surrounding this game now becomes: does Jacksonville play with added motivation? Disinterest? Relief? Does it matter?

If we’ve seen anything this season, it’s that teams playing for interim and Covid-fill-in head coaches tend to play inspired ball. Sprinkle in what I can only assume is a collective sigh of relief from the Jacksonville locker room and I think the Jags win and win happily. 

Jaguars 24  Texans 17

Tennessee (-1) at Pittsburgh

Let’s see. Pittsburgh is coming off of two emotional drainers: the win over Baltimore on the game’s last play (a failed 2-pt conv.) two weeks ago, and that 29-0 comeback that came up short in Minnesota last week. Gut check games for sure.

Tennessee meanwhile is coming off the first ever “two bye weeks in a row” scenario the league has ever issued, with the formal bye in Week 13 and then last week’s rest day against the Jaguars.

Tennessee puts the Steelers’ season on ice.

Titans 26  Steelers 24

Arizona (-12) at Detroit 

At first look I thought to myself, "This is too many points."  Then I remembered it was Detroit. Arizona is looking for redemption, and I just witnessed first hand 4 days ago the enchantment that comes with playing against the team from the land that Lee Iacocca built.

If an offense like Denver’s can lay the wood to the Pontiac Pussycats, then surely Arizona can. Cardinals win and cover.

This guy tried to tell me last week that he's happy with
how the season is going. But I knew he was Lion.

Cardinals 31  Lions 17

New York Jets at Miami (-9)

Last week I picked the Jets as underdogs on the conclusion that it’s usually safe to take the points when betting on a game between the lost and the blind. Boy, that sure bit me in the ass.

Since the Dolphins are well rested and playing better than the Saints, and since the Jets couldn’t hang within 20 of the Fleur de Li’s, I suspect the ’Fins can win by at least 9 here. 

Dolphins 26  Jets 16

Dallas (-10.5) at New York Giants

The Cowboys should exit this weekend with a three game lead in the NFC East with three games to go. I said “should.” While the Dallas D is experiencing a renaissance of sorts, their offense is still dealing with the plague.

Since we’re all learning to excel in life with the plague amongst us these days anyway, I’ll go ahead and pick Dallas here. New York's quarterback situation and the fact that the previous meeting was a 24 point blowout for the 'Boys, both support a hefty Dallas win.

Cowboys 30  Giants 17

Washington at Philadelphia (-6)

Well damn. It appears Washington did nothing more than slap a little makeup on a carcass in winning those 4 games in a row before last Sunday’s come-to-Jesus meeting with Micah Parsons and the Dallas Cowboys.

Two things I like about Philly here: 

1- They are coming off a bye;

2- With 2 of their next 3 games against the Giants and these very Football Teamers (twice) before a week 18 matchup with a Dallas team that very likely might be resting starters, the Playoffs are not only within reach, but starting to look extremely favorable for men who wear green tights and flaunt wings on their helmets. 

I'll pick the Eagles here. 

 

Eagles 24  Washington 17

Cincinnati (+2.5) at Denver 

Cincinnati has had moments this year where they have looked like the best team in the league, as well as equal moments where they have looked like the worst team. I cannot figure them out. What I have figured out, however, is to not bet on the Broncos to have two fantastic showings in a row.

 

I'll take the Bengals to cover, if not steal the outright win in what is essentially an AFC Wild Card game. One would hope Denver's home field, running game, and defense make the difference here, but it would be just like the Orange & Blue to give up copious amounts of points and yards while trying to pretend they are a passing offense; all in front of 11,000 no-shows.

 

This will be a close battle. And yes, I'm torn between picking my donkeys and playing my reverse jinx card with the Bungles. So I’ll do both. Cincy covers. Denver.... shouldddddd win.

Broncos 23  Bengals 21

Atlanta at San Francisco (-9)

San Francisco has won 4 of their last 5 and finds themselves right in the thick of the NFC Wildcard race. Atlanta’s only 2 wins in the last 6 weeks have been against the Panthers and Jaguars. San Fran, minus the points. 

49’ers 34  Falcons 24

Seattle at Los Angeles Rams (-4.5)

Los Angeles got things back on track last week. I would say the same for Seattle except I’m not sure wins against the Houston Texans count for much. I’ll pick the Rams to win by at least 5 pts.

Rams 31  Seahawks 21

Green Bay (-5) at Baltimore 

I know it's not fair to blurt such predictions in mid-December, but Green Bay is my pick in the NFC. Baltimore, whether with Tyler Huntley or Lamar Jackson, continues it's free fall…

Packers 30  Ravens 20

New Orleans at Tampa Bay (-11)

Tampa Bay is 6-0 at home and has scored 30+ points in each of those six wins. The Saints have scored at least 30 points just three times all season, although one of those times was in October against these very Bucs. That was the day Jameis Winston got hurt and the Saints miraculously survived. Their season has sucked ever since. 

Tampa will get their revenge here.

Buccaneers 30  Saints 17

Minnesota (-3.5) at Chicago

I don't care if it is at home and against Minnesota. Never bet on losers of 7 of their last 8 games in mid-December. Ever. Especially when their opponent is scratching and clawing for their playoff lives and will be in must-win mode.

Another Bears season in the shitter.

Vikings 27  Bears 23

’Tis the season for Bird Droppings. For one last dose of humor as we all say goodbye to Urban Meyer, click here:

Urban Meyer’s Jacksonville Story in a Nutshell

Last Week Straight Up Winners: 9-5

Current Season Total Straight Up Winners: 127-81

Last Week Against the Spread: 7-7

Current Season Total Against Spread:  106-100-2

Back In The Groove: The Bird’s Week 14 NFL Picks

Now that’s how Stella gets her groove back! After my worst week of the season in Week 12 I turned around and logged my best week of the season in Week 13. Against the spread we are back in the black after coming dangerously close to going into the red, and all is right again at the Bird’s nest.

Christmas is still on!

We backkkk!

We’re not even gonna waste anymore time talking about it. Instead, on to Week 14!

 

Pittsburgh at Minnesota (-3)

Minnesota is dangerously close to falling out of contention by finding ways lose games they simply should have won. Pittsburgh is dangerously close to being in contention by simply finding ways to win games they should have lost.

Throw on top of that the fact that neither of these teams could beat the damn Lions, and we can only hope the world doesn’t implode tonight. 

I’ll take the home team for no other reason than Minnesota should be embarrassed and pissed off, while Pittsburgh is on a short week having played late into the night last Sunday.

Vikings 28  Steelers 24

Dallas at Washington (+4.5)

Washington is a .500 team that looks like they could beat just about anyone if the wind is blowing right. Winners of four straight, no one really wants to play them right now and the Football Team is starting to look like one that is built for a playoff push.

Dallas, meanwhile, is 8-4 and I get the feeling just about anyone could beat them and no one minds playing them.

My brain hurts just trying to analyze such a paradox.

 

Hmm. 6-6 team playing better than the 8-4 team. 

Considering that each of Washington’s last two games have gone under and been decided by less than a field goal, you have what they call in the betting world, a “trend.” I’ll take the WFT here to not only keep that trend, but pull the upset. 

Washington 21  Cowboys 20

Baltimore at Cleveland (-2.5)

Even though the Browns' winning percentage resembles that of a Kardashian nuptial, they are still in a heated race for a playoff spot, perhaps even a divisional title. Unlike young socialite love, this has to count for something.

Baltimore, meanwhile, doesn’t look right on offense lately and they are playing back-to-back divisional road games. Never easy. Also, since nobody’s dad called out Baker Mayfield on Twitter this week, Cleveland’s QB will probably play footloose and fancy free. I'll take the plain helmets coming off a bye and giving 2.5 points. 

Browns 24  Ravens 21

Las Vegas at Kansas City (-9.5)

Sadly for any AFC West fans not living in Kansas and Missouri, the Chiefs too have joined Stella and The Bird in getting their groove back.

There’s not much else to say or ponder here, and since the last meeting was a red and white, 41-14 beat down less than a month ago, I feel confident K.C. can cover the 9 1/2. 

Chiefs 34  Raiders 22

Seattle (-7.5) at Houston

Welp. If anything, Seattle showed last week that they aren’t about to rollover and give up on a season already lost by Pacific Northwesterners’ standards. 

Houston meanwhile has been rolling over and giving up since last February’s DeAndre Hopkins and JJ Watt fire sale. 

Seahawks 20  Texans 9

Jacksonville at Tennessee (-8.5)

You know, folks who saved money by switching to Geico are happy. 

 - How happy are they, Jimmy?

Happier than slumping Tennessee when they saw Jacksonville was on tap this week. 

The Titans. Happier than a puppy with two peters to be playing Jax this week. 

Tennessee gets back on track. 

Titans 30  Jaguars 14

New Orleans at New York Jets (+5.5)

The return of Taysom Hill robs us all of the highly anticipated Trevor Siemian vs. Zach Wilson spectacular that we all thought we saw coming a few weeks ago. Cruel, cruel world. 

Since they have the better defense, I suspect New Orleans should win this game. But in any matchup involving two woebegone teams like this, it’s best to just take the points if betting. 

Saints 19  Jets 14

Atlanta at Carolina (-3) 

According to the surgeon general, watching this game could be hazardous to your health as both teams have lost 3 of 4 and have looked downright awful in doing so.

And as much as I want to take Atlanta getting points, that same little voice in my head that tells me to not light up lung darts or blow rails of white stuff off glass coffee tables is telling me not to.  

Panthers 21 Falcons 17

Detroit (+10) at Denver

Dashing through the snow, in a one horse open sleigh;

Over the fields they go, Shurmur’ing all the way….

For one 11-minute stretch last Sunday night, the Broncos actually looked to be doing something brilliant. They did EXACTLY what teams dream of doing against a potent offense like the Chiefs’. They engineered a 95 yard drive that ate up a whopping 10 min 50 seconds of the clock and basically kept Patrick Mahomes on the sideline… for the entire damn second quarter! That’s how you do it! In fact it might’ve been the first time since we ran that Omaha play every other down, where I found myself smiling impressively at something Denver was doing. Hell, they even converted a 4th & 7 along the way. This is how you enforce your will on a game in which you can’t afford to let the other team do so first.  Glorious!

Then Pat Shurmer… Shurmured it up as only his Shurmur ass can do, and it fizzled gloriously at the 2 yard line with an outcome of exactly 0 points. Zero points?? Who scripts and executes a drive like that and walks away with nothing? As impressive as that drive was; as unheard of as it was; and as momentum-defining, grab-tempo-by-the-neck-and-take-complete-control-of-this-game of a moment it should’ve been… Kansas City came off the field having won that 2nd quarter battle. Denver Shurmured themselves even when, for the first time this season, they were doing their best not to.

Sigh. 

As if that wasn’t bad enough, now they have to play one of the hottest teams in the league. The Detroit Lions. Lol

I’m joking. I think. 

I’ll pick Detroit to keep it within a confusingly inflated spread. 8 points seems like a lot here, and so long as the Shurmster is calling the shots for Denver’s offense, I’ll take the team coming off of a win to cover. And I’ll feel good about it.

Broncos 27 Lions 20

New York Giants at Los Angeles Chargers (-10)

Now Mike Glennon is hurt? Gimme some Chargers here as New York is rumored to be coaxing Phil Simms out of retirement to play quarterback this Sunday. If they don’t succeed it’ll be the dreaded, rookie QB making his first start on the road scenario, as Jake Fromm tries his hand at steering this NYG ship away from a huge iceberg. 

Chargers 31  Giants 14

San Francisco at Cincinnati (+2)

Both of these teams seemed to be rolling along… Then last Sunday happened. I know, because had each of these idiots not laid a massive egg last Sunday, The Bird might have gone 10-2 ATS in Week 13. Damn them both to hell.

I’ll take Cincinnati, but for no reason other than they are at home and I like their helmets better.  

Bengals 26  49’ers 23

Buffalo (+3.5) at Tampa Bay

I keep thinking to myself that the Buffalo Bills from Week 2 through Week 6 are gonna show back up and give us all hope that someone can stick it to the Kansas City’s and New England’s of the world next month when the playoffs start. 

It’s soooo hard to not bet Tampa here, and I wouldn’t advise doing what I’m about to do, but since the weather will be the exact opposite of what it was in Buffalo last Monday night, I think Josh Allen and team can get their groove back. Tampa’s defense can be exposed. 

Bills 34  Bucs 31

Chicago at Green Bay (-12.5)

Bad news: The Bears are a wreck. 

Good news: Christmas music just got a whole lot better because of it. 

God rest ye merry Bears fan, let nothing you dismay…

Yule tides and silver bells aside, the Packers are 10-2 against the spread this season. 10-2! This makes them the NFL’s only team with double digit wins in covering the Vegas line.  When you factor in that Week 1 ass-whooping’ they suffered at the hands of New Orleans, this becomes even more impressive. And when you factor in this week’s opponent, it’s damn near automatic.

Green Bay decks their halls with bears of folly. Fa-la-la-la-la, la-la-la-la. 

Packers 34  Bears 17

Los Angeles Rams at Arizona (-2)

As much as I am a true believer that it’s hard to beat the same team twice in the same season, Arizona is just simply the better team here. 

The Rams got some of their mojo back last weekend after that L3 skid, but it was against Jacksonville so how can we count that?  Last time these two played it was an Arizona blowout, in LA.  It will be closer this time, but take the Redbirds minus the points. 

Cardinals 31  Rams 24

Don we now our gay apparel, Fa-la-la, La-la-la, La. La. La. 

You’ve been Bird Dropped.

Last Week Straight Up Winners: 9-5

Current Season Total Straight Up Winners: 118-76

Last Week Against the Spread: 10-4

Current Season Total Against the Spread:  99-93-2

Rough Skiing: The Bird’s Week 13 NFL Picks

Well, what can I say. One month ago I was 13 games above .500 picking against the spread and pushing a 72% clip on accuracy predicting the winners straight up. Life was good, the Droppings were money, and anyone who visited my blog could actually take my advice instead of just read it. 

Then that frenzied November of upsets, setbacks, stunners, and sheer craziness happened. It not only sabotaged the Bird Droppings but I’d be lying if I said it hasn’t gotten into my head.

I was leading the pack in four separate pools and now, four NFL weeks later, I am falling like a blind roofer in all of them.

Visual of The Bird’s November. It started out promising,
then hit a sketchy patch, then it seemed I had the skis
under me again on Thanksgiving…
only to be yanked something fierce last Sunday.

Yep. I'm bobbing in the Evinrude wake of November with my trunks down around my ankles and some of the inside netting still stuck in my ass as I hack a gallon of lake water out my nose. Not fun. My skis are floating around here somewhere and as soon as I get them back it’s time to get serious.

All teams are set to make their stretch run and playoff push, and I am no different.

On to Week 13...  Hit it!

 

Dallas (-4.5) at New Orleans

Generally speaking, at this time of year I tend to lean towards teams who are playing for their playoff lives versus teams who have only mustered five wins by the time I've started my Christmas shopping.

Then again, 'tis the season for Dallas to crap the bed and skid into their annual 8-win finish.

I'll take the Cowboys here but I'll say it again: 'tis the bed crapping season in Big D.

Cowboys 27  Saints 17

Tampa Bay (-10.5) at Atlanta

Bucs. 

Buccaneers 30  Falcons 16

Los Angeles Chargers at Cincinnati (-2.5)

Cincinnati feels like a team starting to find their stride, even if they are only on a 2 game winning streak. When they win they go all out in doing so. And when they lose they do the same, whether it’s giving up 42 points to the Browns or pissing themselves embarrassingly against the Jets.

Since the Chargers are not quite in Jets territory, and since I think Cincinnati wins this game anyhow, I will definitely bet them to cover the -2.5 points.

Bengals 37  Chargers 31

Arizona (-7.5) at Chicago

Chicago didn’t fire their coach last week despite numerous reports that Black Friday was supposed to have been D-Day for Matt Nagy. This bodes well for only two kinds of people: the Nagy Family and the Arizona Cardinals.

Kyler Murray is back after a month off, and Arizona has won their last six games on the road.  Make it seven.

Cardinals 27  Bears 17

 

Philadelphia (-6.5) at New York Jets

Up until last week’s disappointing loss to New York’s other team, Philadelphia has been a great, crappy team of late. The Jets, after beating Houston, have proven themselves to be a mediocre, crappy team who can beat crappy, crappy teams but nothing more.

Greatness always beats crappy, even when discussing losing teams.

Even if Jalen Hurts can’t go, I have to take the team in green in this one.

Eagles 25  Jets 14

 

Minnesota (-7) at Detroit 

Dalvin Cook’s absence aside, I’m just not sure how many more weeks I can continue to entertain my women’s intuition that “those poor Detroit Lions are due.”

Minnesota is in the throes of a heated playoff race, and games on the schedule against teams that are still 0-fer in December cannot and should not be taken lightly.

As badly as I want Detroit to get off the schneid before coming to Denver in Week 14, I have to bet smartly and go Purple here.

Vikings 27  Lions 17

 

Indianapolis (-8.5) at Houston

I’m no medical expert, but when the hottest team in the league as of last Saturday loses a heartbreaker at home to the Buccaneers last Sunday… a dose of Houston Texans is exactly what the doctor ordered. 

Indy gets well this day.

Colts 34  Texans 23

New York Giants at Miami (-3.5)

I'll take the home team for no good reason other than Miami is full of young kids still playing hard and believing in themselves, while New York is rife with indifference and players who injure themselves warming up. 

The Fins get win number 5 in a row while the G-Men are due for a loss after going L-W-L-W-L-W each of the past 6 weeks.

Dolphins 23  Giants 17

 

Jacksonville at Los Angeles Rams (-12.5)

One team has unexpectedly lost three in a row and now has everything to play for in trying to stay within a game of division leading Arizona and a game ahead of fast-charging San Francisco. They also have the ability to hang points on shitty teams at home. 

The other team is indeed very shitty and on their way to SoFi Stadium as we speak.

The Jacksonville Jaguars heading out west.

Rams 40  Jaguars 17

 

Washington (+3) at Las Vegas

Eight days ago I would have jumped on the born again and suddenly surging Football Team here, going against a slumping 3 loss-streaking team with all the same worries as a monkey on a rock.

Then Vegas went into Dallas and laid the wood to the Cowboys in an impressive showing that I viewed mostly while fading in and out of a tryptophan coma. So now I'm not so sure.

Good thing I just remembered I hate the Raiders. Washington is my pick to cover. Even if they don’t win the game they will keep it close. But I really hope they win. 

Raiders 26  Washington 24

Baltimore at Pittsburgh (+4.5)

In a rare twist in Steelers lore, the Steel Curtain has allowed 41 points in each of their last two games and is now averaging 34 points allowed in five losses and a tie to the winless Lions. Mean Joe Green and Jack Lambert would be rolling over in their graves if they were dead. 

Mean Joe and Jack discuss this year’s
incarnation of the Steelers’ D.

Games between these two almost always go under the total, so expect either a slug fest or a low scoring lopsided affair. So long as Pittsburgh doesn’t allow another 40-plusser I think they cover the 4.5 in a slugfest at home. They might even win.

Steelers 19  Ravens 16

 

San Francisco (-2.5) at Seattle

Seattle is 1-6 over their last 7 games and unless your name is James or Rita Carroll, this has to make you smile. It also appears Russell Wilson’s finger still isn’t exactly working correctly. 

Russell Wilson pointing to all three of
his wide receivers at the same time. 

San Fran got some swagger back last week and I think their collective fire has been re-lit as the stretch run begins and the gold diggers find themselves one game behind the Rams and right in the thick of the NFC wildcard race.

While the Deebo Samuel injury is concerning, San Francisco by a field goal still feels right here.

49’ers 23  Seahawks 20

 

Denver at Kansas City (-9.5)

Since I feel guilty praying for a Broncos win when the world has so many other dire situations like Covid, Cultural Equity, and Britney Spears’ freedom to pray for, I'll just play my reverse jinx card and bet Kansas City wins big here.

Chiefs 34  Broncos 17

 

New England at Buffalo (-3)

Last year Buffalo ran away with the AFC East. Before that, New England ran the division like the Ming Dynasty ran 1400-1700 a.d. China. 

Let’s just say it’s been a long damn time since the AFC East has had a divisional game this meaningful this late in the year.

The Bird watching tv with his parents and sister the last time
the AFC East had two teams this good, this late in the season.

This is the first of two Buffalo-New England battles to come this month, and as hard as it is to go against the Patriots right now, I think I like me some Bills Mafia here.

Monday Night Football on the shores of Lake Erie guarantees the Buffalo crowd an extra 8 hours of pre-gaming, and they should be drunker than Joe Namath at Suzy Kolber’s Christmas party by the time those asshats from Beantown take the field. I, for one, deem this significant.

Going with Buffalo. 

Bills 37  Patriots 30

 

Oops… I Did It Again. You’ve been Bird Dropped.

Last Week Straight Up Winners: 6-9

Current Season Total Straight Up Winners: 109-71

Last Week Against the Spread: 4-11

Current Season Total Against the Spread:  89-89-2

A Long Overdue, Long Broncos Rant and The Bird’s Week 12 NFL Picks

You’ll have to forgive me. Normally it’s Week 4 or 5 by the time I unleash a 10 paragraph diatribe of disgust on the state of my Denver Broncos. Better late than never I guess.

Feel free to scroll past for this week’s picks, or… grab a beer and a pitchfork and listen in with me.

This is infuriating. As I watched New England last Thursday night claim their 6th win in a row, chugging along and growing their new identity with a rookie QB that could have very easily been drafted by the Broncos, the realization of Denver’s dysfunctional state overwhelmed and left me with a case of the angry ass. Or maybe that was the Taco Bell I was eating. Either way, it brewed in me. Even if Mac Jones isn’t the lone reason for New England’s success; even if he turns out not to be the second coming in New England; the point that follows is this: the Pats were 1-3 back in September, and paired with last season’s struggles, life after Brady was looking dire. But their coaching staff understands the reward that comes with being pliable in the face of difficult decisions. Having some semblance of a vision never hurt anybody either.

The Broncos as it were, slinked into their bye week on the heels of one of the most disappointing home losses in a long while just one week after looking totally legit in Dallas. We had hope. God forbid it was the first time I’d felt any hope since I woke up the morning of Super Bowl 50, but at least it was hope. 

And then the Week 10 crap show against Philly took place. Teddy Bridgewater made the most unforgivable lack of effort play I think I’ve ever seen in football, and all of it idled sadly for two weeks to become the poster image for what this team’s growing identity is.

The yellow arrow highlights all you need to know 
about what kind of team the Broncos have become.

If the leader of your team, the friggin’ quarterback, is allowed to quit —in the middle of a play— and still keep his job, then everyone can. Right?

Bla. Despite this signature moment by their unimpassioned quarterback, Denver entered the bye week at 5-5 and well within “the hunt” in the AFC. If nothing else, they had a significant sample size of what they have, who they have, and what they needed to change during the two week rest. No better time for making some inflight mid season adjustments than when you have 14 days to do so.

And what did they do?  NOTHING.

Pathetic. Are they seriously that pleased with things? Or just stupidly confident in their current state of being? When you have personnel authorities who seem blind (or neglectful) to making honest talent decisions because of pride or stupidity or whatever the hell it is, you’ve got problems. The last time I looked, loyalty and ignorance don’t win much.

All of Broncos Country hoped the team would have used their two week bye period to implement some (any?) key adjustments and changes heading into the final 7 week stretch of the season. A stretch that, despite all of the above, still had flickers of hope.

And they made…?  Exactly no changes.

Not a coaching change. Not a swap at quarterback. Perhaps naming Javonte Williams (my vote for Team MVP, not to mention Most Pleasant Surprise on this otherwise underachieving roster) as the lead #1 running back? Nope. How about making Albert O. the number one tight end and moving on from mega bust Noah Fant? Nope again. Change up the play calling duties? Alleviate the head coach from trying to juggle between head coaching AND defensive coordinating at the same time? Nope and Nope. Where is this vaunted secondary we heard about all off-season with the additions of Kyle Fuller and Ronald Darby? We paid $40M for those two!? Where is Bradley Chubb? Did I mention Noah Fant already? Are we sure that’s not Ashley Lelie in disguise?

Listen. Drew Lock may not fair any better at quarterback than Teddy Two Gloves has, and given the unimaginative play calling abilities of Pat Shurmur it’s safe to say he probably wouldn’t. But I’ll say this: he’d bring more energy and passion, more downfield threats, and sometimes —the week after your regular quarterback announces his retirement in the middle of a play usually makes for good timing— a change for change’s sake can be catalytically good. One thing I know for damn sure: he’d have chased down a cornerback running by with the game clinching fumble in his hands like Andy Reid chasing a burrito truck, and not just waved him by like a disinterested matador.

The fact that not even a change at QB was made during the two week idle period further enforces that this group of decision makers have their minds made up, whether right or wrong (and they’ve been mostly wrong, let’s be honest). Either they refuse the humility of righting any poor decisions made so far, or they just believe whole heartedly in their loyalties even when none of them any longer pass the eye test.

Vic Fangio, George Paton, and the Broncos brain trust had a chance to change some things this week. Most importantly, they had a chance to make sure the Teddy B play vs. Philadelphia didn’t become a season-defining moment. Instead, they rested on laurels that aren’t paying dividends and said, “Nah. We’re good, yo.”

Sigh. Until this team gets an owner in place, such cries for accountability will stay exactly where they are: in the Bird Droppings, on the deaf ears of Broncos’ brass, and in the broken hearts of Broncos fans not at all used to such long stretches of NFL irrelevancy.

Rest in peace, Pat Bowlen. The proud and winning franchise you left behind sure does miss you.

Now then. Wiping the spit of outrage from my lips and moving on to Week 12. Ladies and gentlemen, the picks… 

Note: Arizona and Kansas City have the week off. Both of those teams are heading straight for the playoffs and have plenty of good things happening. That said, I bet even they make some changes and fix some of their problems during their bye. Because, well, that’s what good teams do.

Atlanta at Jacksonville (+2.5)

I have been burned by the Falcons all season long. I keep expecting them to be able to hang offensively, but then they go out and give up copious amounts of points leading to insurmountable deficits.

Even on a weekend against the Jags, when I feel like this is a good spot to take them, I no longer can stomach the idea of betting on Atlanta.

Jaguars 20  Falcons 19

New York Jets at Houston (-2.5)

The less said about this game the better. And please don’t watch it. But that doesn’t mean I can skip the pick. 

[closes eyes, throws dart].

Texans 16  Jets 13

Tennessee (+7) at New England

Clash of the Titans and I’m not sure at this point if that refers to Tennessee or New England. The Patriots look disgustingly like themselves of late. I’ll bet the evil empire wins today, but for a proud and solid team who is desperate to get back on track, +7 points is too juicy to pass up.

Taking Tennessee plus the points. 

Patriots 27  Titans 24

Philadelphia (-4) at New York Giants

Don’t look now but Philadelphia is smelling blood in the waters of the NFC East. With Jalen Hurts spreading his wings and quietly becoming a viable NFL QB, and with Dallas tripping all over themselves, the Eagles are beginning to see a door opening. And New York is awful.

Eagles 27  Giants 16

Pittsburgh (+4.5) at Cincinnati

I am somewhere in the range of 3-8 or 4-7 when picking Bengals games this year.

Such a record places me squarely in the same realm as the Dolphins, Bears, and Giants... and I am not fond of the association.

My only recourse is to pick exactly against my gut here. Since I think Cincinnati should win this game something in the way of 31-24, I'll instead take the Steelers to keep it within the spread.

Bengals 28  Steelers 24

Tampa Bay at Indianapolis (+3)

I don’t think I can go against this Colts team right now. Not with Jonathan Taylor running his way straight past the Tom Brady’s and Aaron Rodgers’ of the world and into the lead for MVP of the 2021 season.

The Colts have won 5 of their last 6 and for my money’s worth are the hottest team on the planet.  The horseshoes getting points as home dawgs is the play here me thinks. I like them to steal the outright win as well. 

Colts 30  Buccaneers 28

Carolina (-2.5) at Miami

Carolina is 2-6 in their last 8 games. Miami has won 3 in a row. That being said, both teams generally have the same record and appear to have many similarities.

I think that Carolina is pissed that they have been losing so much while the Fins are relieved that they have won a few games.

In any fight not involving the French Army, I will generally take the stronger pissed-off guy over the weaker satisfied guy.

Panthers 23 Dolphins 17

Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) at Denver 

After an impressive rant like the one above, I sure as heck can’t scroll down to here and pick Denver to win, much less cover, can I? I still have more rhetorical struggles, like: Do you think they’ll fire Vic Fangio when he bumbles his way to a loss two weeks from now against the 0-11-1 Lions?

Okay so maybe that’s not rhetorical.

I’ll pick L.A. here to win and cover.

Chargers 24  Broncos 23 

Minnesota (+3) at San Francisco

Minnesota’s record doesn’t reflect as much, but they are a very solid football team. Take away some heartbreaking losses early on and they might be 7-3 or 8-2 instead of 5-5. One constant all season long with the Purple? They cover spreads and keep games close. They’re also 4-1 on the road and that doesn’t bode well for a team who is 1-4 at home.

Minnesota it is.

Vikings 27  49’ers 24

Los Angeles Rams (+1.5) at Green Bay

What we have here are two solid NFC favorites, maybe the top two favorites, but both teams are struggling of late. If we were talking underwear we’d have skid marks, as the Pack has lost two of their last three and the Rams have fallen twice in a row since their big makeover with recent trades and signings. That makes this one of the hardest games to pick this week.

I’ll give a slight lean to the road underdogs, as head coach Sean McVay promised his team would “come out friggin’ swinging” after their bye, and Green Bay has a QB with toe issues and who is missing two starters on his offensive line. This might be the game that Aaron Donald and Von Miller win for L.A.

Rams 29  Packers 17

Cleveland at Baltimore (-3.5)

You gotta admire Baker Mayfield’s toughness, but at some point “playing tough” doesn’t necessarily make it the right thing for the team. All of Cleveland seems to know this except for Kevin Stefanski and Baker himself.

Not only do the Browns seem to have all the issues of a monkey on a rock because of this, but from what I saw they got damn lucky that Detroit had to play their backup QB last weekend. 

Now. They might get lucky again this week as they go up against a Baltimore team who’s quarterback apparently hasn’t learned to wash his hands and has the immune system of a newborn baby, but I wouldn’t count on it. 

Why is Lamar always battling a case of the Mudbutt?

Given the state of Cleveland’s football team of late, I think I like the Ravens here. If Jackson took his Flintstones vitamins this week and actually plays, I really like the Ravens. 

Ravens 30  Browns 20

Seattle at Washington (-2.5)

Seattle is off to their worst start ever under Pete Carrol and Russell Wilson is staring down the barrel of the first three game losing streak of his career.

Washington, contrarily, has rejuvenated their fringe playoff hopes by virtue of winning two in a row and also because they play in the world’s worst division where every year, eight wins might win the East.

In this week’s sign that the apocalypse is coming, Taylor Heinicke is probably the better quarterback heading into this one. Washington plays its first home prime time game since 2012 and the RFK crowd of men dressed as hogs should be rowdy, loud, and impassioned. I think Washington has the edge here. 

PS. Yes, I know it’s no longer RFK Stadium but I have a disease where I still call every NFL Stadium by its name from when I was a kid. 

Washington 24  Seahawks 21 

Thanks everyone! Remember: The Bird Droppings always taste better as leftovers. 

Last Week Straight Up Winners: 6-9

Current Season Total Straight Up Winners: 103-62

Last Week Against the Spread: 8-7

Current Season Total Against the Spread:  85-78-2

Gobble Gobble: The Bird’s Thanksgiving Day Picks

Now that we're all just waiting on that little plastic thing to pop out of the turkey, its time to sit back, watch some football, and reminisce on that time Leon Lett made us all laugh gravy out our nose at the Cowboys. 

I'll start with the blessings by saying I am grateful I can only be wrong three times today.

Here are my Turkey Day picks.

Chicago (-3) at Detroit

In my lifetime, the term “Thanksgiving dinner” has become synonymous with “Hey, wanna come over and watch Detroit get their asses kicked?” 

I am grateful for this, as while recent trial verdicts, mask mandates, and other current topics of social strife do indeed make excellent table talk at any gathering, a well-timed "how ’bout them Lions?" can provide a much-needed blast of levity to tense conversations.

Today I’d like to lean towards the winless guys to make everyone but Chicagoans proud to be American, but two things prevent me from doing so:

1. How can I pick a team quarterbacked by some dude named Tim Boyle? Didn’t he win Britain’s Got Talent several years ago? Even pitted against Andy Dalton I simply cannot do this. 

2. I have myself 93% convinced the Lions are saving their first win for Week 14, when they do so against the bumbling Vic Fangio and my poor Denver Broncos. I don’t want to be the guy who predicts this on December 12th, so I will just casually forewarn everyone in Broncos Country now.

Today, the Bears are my pick.

Bears 26  Lions 16

Las Vegas (+7.5) at Dallas

Not a good spot for a Dallas team coming off a tough loss on a short week and missing some very key pass catchers on offense.

The ’Boys are 1-9 against the spread the last 10 Thanksgivings, and if I’m paying attention to trends I also should point out that the AFC West is 3-0 against America’s Team this year as the Chargers, Broncos and Chiefs have all taken turns kicking Dallas in the nuts already.

These types of stats are just begging for a Raider win and cover. I’ll bite on the cover, but I’m too chicken to pick a Las Vegas win. 

Cowboys 29  Raiders 24

Buffalo (-5.5) at New Orleans

What in the hell has happened to Buffalo?

Up until about Halloween they looked like the clear leaders in the AFC and seemed to be well on their way to the Super Bowl. Then that Jacksonville game happened and ever since it has looked like just another long winter is coming to the Land of No Trophies.

Sadly, New Orleans doesn’t look any better than Buffalo but at least I know why the Saints suck. They’ve lost their QB, they’ve lost their RB and best player, and they play their home games in a stinky hurricane shelter.

What to do? Betting wise, I don’t like this game at all. While the rarity of a Thanksgiving prime time game is surely a big deal for the fine folks of New Orleans and should make for a rowdy good time on Bourbon Street, I’ll roll the dice on Buffalo to rebound here.

Bills 31 Saints 20

Have a great and thankful day with friends and family, everyone! As long as I can get out of the recliner after today, the rest of this week’s picks (along with my annual bye week rant on the state of the Denver Broncos) will surface sometime before Sunday.