Championship Weekend: The Bird’s AFC & NFC Picks

Eighteen weeks and two playoff rounds are in the books. If you haven't been enlightened by any of my ramblings by now, then I can only hope you have at least been slightly entertained.

Either way, enlightened or amused, at 88 games above .500 and a +19 overall against the spread, I'm forging through these playoffs with all the confidence of Bill Belichick poring over the hoodie rack at a Goodwill. We’re 7-3 straight up here at Bird Droppings Inc. this postseason, and 5-5 against the line. Let’s go. 

My picks for Sunday’s games are below, but first a bulleted recount of last weekend’s insanity, as analyzed from a barstool by yours truly:

• I texted a good buddy who happens to be a Bengals die hard (yes, one exists) just before Saturday’s Cincy-Tennessee game and it went something like this:  Me- “You guys got a chance?” Him- “We just gotta get out in front and let Tannehill turn it over.” Lol. Someone get this guy his own pick’em blog! Tannehill threw an INT on Tennessee’s very first play of the game, another on the first play of the 2nd half, and a third with under a minute left in a tied game which ultimately was his team’s final offensive play. Wow. What a trifecta of self-sabotage. Now if Mahomes can just do the same I think the Bengals have a fighter’s chance this Sunday. 

• Green Bay scored a touchdown on their opening drive. San Francisco didn’t score an offensive touchdown the entire game. Still, they found their way to the NFC Championship Game. Garoppolo beat Rodgers. At Lambeau. Some things just start feeling like destiny once the playoffs start rolling, don’t they? (Oh. And by destiny I mean Green Bay’s earlier-than-expected exit… which lead to Nathaniel Hackett’s hiring in Denver… which leads to……) Well, that’s for another conversation. 

• Cam Akers fumbled at the 1 yard line just before halftime as LA was getting ready to punch it in and take a seemingly insurmountable 27-3 lead at the break in Tampa. Instead, it remained 20-3. When Akers fumbled again late in the 4th, Tampa’s comeback was complete. Matthew Stafford ultimately saved his running back from becoming the most hated man in Hollywood not named Harvey Weinstein, but wow, other than Ryan Tannehill 24 hrs earlier, I hadn’t seen one man almost single-handedly destroy a team’s chances of winning since Vic Fangio.

• Kansas City vs. Buffalo. There’s really nothing that can be said here, other than “those poor Bills fans.” Buffalo continues their rich tradition of finding ways to lose spectacularly, while the Chiefs continue to prove that a team can go 60 yards in :13 seconds so long as you have a guy they call “Cheetah” running with the ball. Seriously. They made John Elway’s “The Drive” look like a seven-part series of slow moving commentary on the Crimean War. Kansas City plays “fast” in a way that is reshaping the NFL the same way Steph Curry’s Warriors have reshaped the NBA. All we can do is watch, marvel, and try not to blink.

• Speaking of… does anyone else find it funny that Patrick Mahomes was able to lead his team 50 yards on two plays in :13 seconds, yet Dak Prescott took :14 seconds on the final play just to slide?

• Lastly, the Overtime Rules. C‘Mon, guys. It’s not that hard. My solution: stop with all this sudden death, first-score-wins nonsense. It’s simple: play another period. Period. Whoever is ahead when the clock hits 0:00 is the winner. And in the playoffs if the score is still tied, well, throw another shrimp on the barbie! Add another OT until it’s resolved. If the NBA can figure this much out, then surely the NFL can. At the very, very least: allow both teams a possession, regardless of whether Team 1 scores a touchdown or not. Josh Allen won that game for Buffalo two times Sunday night. It’s a shame we didn’t get to see him try for a third.

Now then. On to the picks!

Line: Chiefs favored by 7 1/2

I’m not sure Cincinnati can keep pace with KC the way Buffalo did, but the fact that Joe Burrow was sacked 9 times last week, pressured another 25 times, and STILL put up 350 yards passing and got the win is not something to be taken lightly. This kid is a baller. Also, his offensive line leaks like a sieve. 

Burrow & Mixon in the Bengals backfield
the moment the ball is snapped.

I don’t know how any team can get their quarterback killed as often as Cincinnati does, and expect to keep winning road games in January. Especially when the offensive game plan calls for dropping your QB back to pass all the time.

If we don’t get some kind of Joe Mixon sighting soon, or unless the Bengals get creative with rolling Jackpot Joe out of the pocket and/or setting up some quick screens, this game will get away from them quicker than you can say “T.J. Houshmandzedah.” Mahomes isn’t going to turn the ball over 3 times the way Tannehill did last week either.

Kansas City has had their scare. They survived. They’re 9-2 Against the Spread this season at home, and by my sophomore-level math, they’ve won those games by an average of 10 points per victory. Oh, and since the Bengals just beat them 4 weeks ago, they’ll be extra vigilant and on alert so as to not allow any 3rd & 27 conversions that lead to upsets this time.

Look. I’m a Bengals fan this weekend. We all are where I come from. Dress me in orange and watch me do the Ickey Shuffle while eating Cincinnati Skyline chili. But the bettor in me knows how this will end. Kansas City is my pick. For the love of Kenny Anderson, I hope I’m wrong. 

Chiefs 34  Bengals 24

Line: Rams favored by 3 1/2

I am a law of averages guy. It’s in my nature and always has been. I will walk by a roulette table that has hit on Black six spins in a row and immediately plop down on Red. 

San Francisco has won 6 straight games against the Rams, and for a guy like me that means more than all of the X’s and O’s we could be dissecting here. It means I feel all but guaranteed there won’t be a 7th. This, my friends, is sound gambling advice. 

It’s simple: the Rams are due to hit here. 

Now, I do have some other thoughts designed at validating this pick beyond my belief that things always tend to balance themselves out. 

Matthew Stafford is having a helluva year. Sure. We could say that about anybody who moved out of Detroit and relocated anywhere else but Kabul. But I mean, he is having a hell of a year. Feels like his moment is here. He has the best WR in the game, a defense that is peaking at the absolute right time, and sources tell me the sun-bleached people of Southern Cal have taken conscious measures to make sure SoFi Field actually has Rams fans in attendance this time. 

Meanwhile San Fran also seems “due” for a return to balance. They’ve gone 19 straight games without allowing a 300yd passer and in today’s air-friendly NFL that is just absurd. If such a run of good fortune is going to end, it’s going to be against the most prolific QB-WR passing tandem the league has seen, and it’s going to happen now.

Have I mentioned that if Green Bay didn’t field a special teams unit full of monkeys and imbeciles last Saturday, we wouldn’t even be having this conversation? Blah.

Will the Rams lose three times in the same season to these guys? Not a chance. Well, a 50/50 one I suppose if you want to get technical. But not by my logic. 

L.A. it is.

Rams 31  49’ers 27

See y’all in two weeks for the Super Bowl!

PS — This blog should have been over :13 seconds ago. But the Chiefs had something to say about that.

Playoffs Straight Up Winners: 7-3

Playoffs Against the Spread:  5-5

Season Total Straight Up Winners: 188-100

Season Total Against the Spread:  152-133-3

Mad Max: The Bird’s Divisional Round Picks

My favorite NFL Weekend of them all is here, but first a quick recap:

I notched a fairly pedestrian opening round against the spread last week, accompanied by my continued success of picking straight up winners. But let’s be honest, the best thing about Wild Card Weekend was watching the life cycle of the Dallas Cowboys play out before our eyes in glorious fashion yet again.

Much like the wonderment of witnessing bald eagle hatchlings emerge from their eggs, or a slow-motion Nat Geo shot of a honey bee sipping nectar from the stamen of a cone flower, the “beauty in nature” that is Dallas’s yearly diaper blowout for their fans is truly a sight to behold.

A quarterback draw with :14 seconds left and no time outs? What, did Pat Shurmur sneak his way into the Cowboys’ headsets and call that? I'm pretty sure he did. All I know is, as the beer bottles rained down on Jerry’s Field after the final whistle blew, all seemed right in the world. Queue the Louis Armstrong.

I see trees of green, red roses too,
Dak Prescott slides, time runs out on the blue. 
And I think to myself… what a wonderful world.

 

Speaking of things raining down on the field:

Going for a 2 point perversion.

New England getting bitch slapped in the harsh Buffalo night as TB12’s dildo landed in the end zone courtesy of an upper deck sling shot was pretty cool too. (If you don’t know this hilarious tradition, Google "Tom Brady's dildo" sometime.) And here I thought that time a packed gym of enemy fans at Heritage High School slowly chanting "Sterrroids! Sterrroids!" at my 165lb self as I shot free throws was harsh.

But I digress. This is a family column. 

Enough about things raining down on teams we all love to hate, there's more picking to do. And since the crap hole teams (Eagles and Steelers) and the incapable ones (Cowboys and Raiders) have all seen their Super Bowl dreams get tossed into a pragmatic trash heap like so many crumpled up cheeseburger wrappers from Ben Roethlisberger’s New Year’s dieting resolution, we can now move on to the contenders.

Fans of football, the Divisional Round Playoffs are here. And I’m in full Road Warrior mode!

The Road Warrior: The Bird gets
ready to pick against some home teams.

 

4. Cincinnati Bengals (+4)  at  1. Tennessee Titans

As one who lands somewhere in the range of being too old for Snapchat but too young for a Life Alert bracelet, can I just tell you: I am sorta jealous of these Bengals. Generally speaking, they look like a fun squad that is too young to know better and too unruffled to care. You're feeling really good about the future if you're Cincy Fan.

Tennessee meanwhile, is kinda like Alanis Morrisette's music or a handful of raisins for me. Do I like them? Sure. Do I wince with uncertainty though when I say that? Yep. 

This is probably the hardest pick for me this weekend. The Titans sort of backed into this #1 seed if you ask me, and let's be honest: if Kansas City hadn't crapped the bed in September or Buffalo hadn't done the same in October, Tennessee is probably no better than a 3-seed, possibly lower. Injuries have plagued them, and even though Derek Henry is back I just don't trust the chemistry coming off the shores of the Cumberland. These guys finished 4-1 down the stretch, but in that run struggled twice against the lowly Houston Texans. That’s a jagged little pill to swallow for this prognosticator. See what I did there?

Now. Cincinnati. Outside of last week they haven't really proven anything in the last 30 years and if anything gives me pause, it's that everyone in a striped helmet pretty much won their first playoff game six days ago. How can I expect them to go on the road and win another? Well, that's easy. Two reasons: 1) Again, they are too young to know better and B) They are in Nashville; not Kansas City or Buffalo. For a team that seems fearless, confident, and brazenly in love with who they are right now, I think they drew the perfect match up this weekend.

Tennessee's 25th ranked pass defense is gonna get toasted. Who dey!

Bengals 24  Titans 17

 

6. San Francisco 49’ers  at  1. Green Bay Packers (-5)

Green Bay will be riding the wave of adrenaline that comes with knowing that all of their playoff games will be contested in the land of the frozen tundra this winter. Any chance of not making the Super Bowl will have to come in the form of an enormous upset from a bunch of outsiders surely not as mighty as the home team.

We just won't remind the Cheese that Tampa has a chiseled quarterback who is to football as a Spartan warrior is to taking Thermopylae. It happened last year. It could happen next week. For now though, it's Jimmy Garoppolo and not Tom Brady.

As far as Saturday night goes, Green Bay holds the higher ground. And to echo sentiments I have been laying down all season in this blog: Aaron Rodgers is primed to go out with guns blazing this postseason, and both middle fingers in the air when it’s all said and done.

San Francisco has had their fun, but this will be their third straight road game and I don't trust Jimmy G. against Aaron Rodgers anymore than I would trust Shawn Kemp against planned parenthood (it's funny because he had many kids with many women).

To say I'd be surprised if this isn't an easy Packer win would be an understatement. Green Bay rolls.

Packers 30  49'ers 17

 

4. LA Rams (+3)  at  2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Generally speaking, picking a west coast team traveling cross country on a short week is never advisable. Neither is picking said team to show up in Florida and beat Tom Brady for a second time this season. Tough spot here as far as LA’s itinerary goes.

That being said, the one thing that jumped out at me last week while watching the Bucs dismantle the Eagles, was the alarming rate at which Tampa Bay’s offensive linemen found themselves rolling around clutching at broken legs like they were auditioning for a spot with Manchester United.

Tampa’s Offensive Line last week after every third play.

Being extremely short handed on the O-line does not bode well against a Rams front four that includes Aaron Donald; not to mention Von Miller played his best game since Super Bowl 50 last Monday and appears to be back in full, Lombardi chasing form.

The Rams found their running game against Arizona —a huge development in my opinion— as taking the pressure off of Matt Stafford to be the next Jim Everett in Tinseltown just might be the key to how far LA can go. If they can find similar balance this Sunday, Sean McVay’s crew will be booking flights to Wisconsin come Monday.

Rams 30  Buccaneers 27

3. Buffalo Bills (+1.5)  at  2. Kansas City Chiefs

If last weekend was any indication, Arrowhead Stadium might resemble that fireworks factory that exploded in Shanghai a few years ago by the time Sunday night rolls around. 

Did someone drop a cigarette in the Roman Candle Factory again?
Nope. That's just the Bills and Chiefs at Arrowhead.

I really like the Bills here, even though I really hate the fact that picking Buffalo will mean I have three of the four road teams winning this weekend. That seems unfathomable. 

But, they don’t call these The Bird Droppings for nothing, folks. And this has been an entire season full of unfathomables.

Buffalo not only has the best defense in the league, but one that they built specifically for beating Mahomes and the Chiefs. They were here last year, and they’ve sculpted this year’s road map for this very chance at redemption. 

In a game that will surely be an orgy of offense, in the end I think the defenses will matter most, and one of them will need to make a final stand or produce a game-clinching turnover. Make it Buffalo for me. Throw in the fact that Kansas City will blitz almost as surely as there will be barbecue in the parking lots, and Josh Allen is free to run amok through the City of Fountains. If last year's AFC Championship game felt like Buffalo's young QB just wasn't quite ready... well... this year... he is.

If I have one red flag concern, it’s that Buffalo already went into Arrowhead once this year and beat the Chiefs. And I’m pretty sure that when I got my Masters in AFC West football, I learned that no one beats Kansas City in Kansas City twice in the same year unless John Elway is your quarterback. Welp. Add Josh Allen to the list.

I’m take wings over ribs this Sunday.

Bills 32  Chiefs 31

Enjoy the best games on the best weekend of the year! I’m just here for the gasoline… I mean, the picks.

Cheers!

 

Playoffs Straight Up Winners: 5-1

Playoffs Against Spread:  3-3

Season Total Straight Up Winners: 181-97

Season Total Against Spread:  147-128-3

Okay, Boomer! The Bird's NFL Wild Card Picks

Blessed are the meek, for they shall inherit the playoffs. 

Just like that, the regular season is over. The Bird Droppings finished red hot and The Bird won a couple of pick'em pools and a few bags of coin from the fine people over at Draft Kings along the way. All evidence that this is likely your best place for finding acute NFL forecasting disguised in dry wit.

That being said, there will be no resting on laurels here. The post-season is a brand new beginning for 14 teams as well as myself, and while it is true I made my kids give me a Gatorade shower last Sunday as my final pick rang true, I have since showered off and am ready to start a new run.

Me, forcing my kids to to acknowledge my Pick’em 
League win after last Sunday’s final game ended.

The new season is here. Everyone is 0-0. Wild Card Weekend begins… now.

Let's go!

5. Las Vegas Raiders  at  4. Cincinnati Bengals (-5.5)

The last time the Bengals won a playoff game, I could not yet legally drive a car unless my mom or dad were sitting shotgun with a look of sheer terror on their face. As a staunch believer in the principle that most future events are likely to balance any past deviation from a presumed average, I am compelled to pick Cincinnati here.

Then again, the Raiders’ last playoff win came three years before I began producing offspring, and I now have a college-bounder. So we have a real clash in the Law of Averages at stake this Saturday.

With some Bell Biv Devoe in the tape deck,
The Bird gets ready to take his Driver’s Test the
same year Cincinnati last won a playoff game.

The Queen City should be Ickey Shuffling like it’s 1990, and I think the combination of energy, hype, talent, and a roster full of players who weren’t yet born the last time a guy named Esiason was taking playoff snaps for the home team, should all propel the striped helmets to an inspired win. Okay, Boomer?

Bengals 27  Raiders 20

6. New England Patriots (+5)  at  3. Buffalo Bills

Can you imagine what Bills Mafia is thinking, but too scared to say out loud? After shaking the Pats last year in a set of events that actually looked as if New England was finally about to fade into history with the Nazis, Chiang Kai Shek, and all the other evil empires throughout time, then coming within 15 min of returning to the Super Bowl, then winning the AFC East again this year… you draw the goddamn Patriots in round one of this year’s postseason?

Bills fans, after realizing last week that they drew 
Belichick and the Patriots for their first playoff game.

I don’t know what to compare this to. It’s like switching schools and escaping the neighborhood bully only to realize the next semester that he transferred too. Or imagine Buster Douglas grabbing an elevator down to the lobby the morning after beating Mike Tyson, only to find Iron Mike waiting for him at the button panel. “Firth’t floor, Butth-ter?”

Yikes.

If there is any kind of karma in the football world, Buffalo will erase two decades of New England Patriot fingerprints that are all over the mosaic that is the AFC playoff canvas of the past 20 years. But the bettor in me can’t pass up Big Bill as a 5 pt. underdog in the playoffs against a team he knows so well.

I also really hate that Buffalo just beat New England three weeks ago, as that alone makes this ripe for an upset in my opinion. However, because I’m a good guy who grew up on Star Wars and therefore knows the value in rooting against all evil, I’ll cast a valiant pick for Buffalo to at least get the win. But I’m nervous about it.

Bills 23  Patriots 20

7. Philadelphia Eagles (+8)  at  2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

As I stated in my Yellowstone playoff summary earlier this week (Yellowstone Playoff Preview), Philadelphia is merely an overmatched, flinching, lucky-to-be-alive Jamie Dutton here in the Wild Card round. 

The Eagles, standing at the locker room tunnel as 
Tom Brady strolls by with his seven rings and zero worries.

I’m a bit skeptical on the point spread, mainly because playoff games are not traditionally blowouts (unless it’s a Super Bowl from the 80’s/90’s involving the Broncos or Bills), and also because Tampa has killed me all season long by not covering spreads that I thought were money in the bank. Bettors agree with me as this line opened at 10 and dropped to 8 by mid-week.

I’ll cautiously pick Philly to keep it closer than that… well, maybe with a back door cover in a game not actually that close. But of all the games on this weekend’s slate, I like this one the least if we’re talking about placing money.

Buccaneers 24  Eagles 19

6. San Francisco 49'ers  at  3. Dallas Cowboys (-3)

San Fransisco and Dallas renew their postseason rivalry, even though the grandeur of Joe Montana-to-Dwight Clark and the paltriness of Terrell Owens dancing on the midfield Star at Arlington have faded unvaryingly into history. 

I have similar thoughts about Dallas here as I do Buffalo. Which is to say if the ’Boys aren’t shaking like a Frenchman in a thunderstorm at the prospect of drawing a red hot and explosive 49’er team, then they’re ripe for a rude awakening.

I also have similar thoughts about Dallas as I do New England, which is to say any team with decades of legacy and a crypt keeper running the show must qualify as a hated institution. Hmmm.

Hello, boys and ghouls. How ‘bout dem Cowboys?

That being said Dallas’s defense has been impressive all year long, despite some wild inconsistencies. And though it’s hard for me to bet on anyone who was down 30-0 at home to the Broncos at any point during this year, Micah Parsons (easily my vote for Def. R.O.Y.) and Trayvon Diggs bring an attitude and style to the Dallas D that will win the day. They also possess the kind of speed on the outside that few defenses have: the kind it takes to neutralize this Deebo Samuel factor that has otherwise been wreaking havoc on NFL defenses of late.

San Francisco is the sexy pick for many this weekend, headlining plenty of upset specials. But I like Dallas. San Fran still isn’t even sure if they’re starting their best quarterback or not, and that’s a problem for me. It won’t be for Micah Parsons and crew.

Cowboys 26  49’ers 20

7. Pittsburgh Steelers  at  2. Kansas City Chiefs (-12)

"Nothing is as obnoxious as other people's luck." -- F. Scott Fitzgerald

By now we’re all aware that Pittsburgh came away luckier than a puppy with two peters last Sunday during that LV-LAC barn-burner of a finale. From Vegas going for two points early in the game when it wasn’t necessary (and failing), to LA going for two later in the game when it wasn’t yet necessary (and scoring), to Brandon Staley calling a timeout when it looked like the Raiders were content to let the clock run out with the game tied, to Vegas taking offense to that and changing their mindset towards going for the win… Pittsburgh miraculously woke up Monday morning in the playoffs.

This guy laid a good, old-fashioned Western Pennsylvania Steamer in his BVD’s Sunday night at the Raider game.

Too many times we have seen luck make accidental heroes out of fools, and we all know a puppy with two peters is, literally, one lucky son of a bitch. But I don’t see the black and gold moving on after today.

Just recently this game was played and the result was a 36-10 Chiefs victory. Pittsburgh, a team who looks as if they would have trouble scoring in a 5¢ whore house even if you gave them a roll of nickels, simply cannot keep up here. While -12 is a hefty cover for any favorite, especially in the ground-and-pound nature of the playoffs, I’ll take Kansas City and I’ll feel pretty good about it.

Chiefs 35  Steelers 13

5. Arizona Cardinals  at  4. Los Angeles Rams (-4)

The Rams have not looked “right” over the course of the last month of the season. I can’t quite put my finger on it, other than they simply didn’t get to play the Jaguars enough. Still, this is what all of the roster moves —from signing Leonard Floyd, to trading for Matt Stafford, to paying dearly for OBJ, to acquiring Von Miller— were meant for, right?

In that vein it’s “put up or shut up” time for the SoFi kids. And quite frankly a lot of dudes with ugly stickers of horns on their helmets have something to prove to a club that pushed their chips All-In several times this year, and to a fan base that obviously likes the Niners better than their own team. 

No one has a bigger monkey to throw than Matthew Stafford, and with J.J. Watt back from Dave Drevecky’s School of Torn Labrums & Rotator Cuff Recoveries, there will be pressure both in Stafford’s head and from the fresh-legged #99 on the blind side. Assuming Watt plays.

Either way this smells like trouble against a young team who is finally getting healthy and has far less to lose, reputation wise. Hmmm.

I wouldn’t bet my last pair of socks on this one (unless it was on the over), but I’ll give a nod to the home team for the win and cover, laying 4 points. They’ve paid highly for this moment. So maybe it’s time. Matt Stafford seizes the day.

Rams 41 Cardinals 34

 

Enjoy the games! Thanks for reading the Wild Card Bird Droppings. Cheers!

Final Regular Season Stats:

Straight Up Winners: 176-96

Against Spread:  144-125-3

 

 

 

Yellowstone: The Bird’s NFL Playoff Preview

As we head into the next month, what better way to assess the cutthroat undercurrent of the NFL Playoffs than by correlating the participants with their alter-egos from the most ruthless example of cutthroatery America knows? 

Ladies and Gentlemen… I present to you… The Yellowstone NFL Playoff Preview edition of the Bird Droppings. 

Let’s examine the psychology, mentality, and overall dramatis personae of the upcoming playoffs.

The characters:

John Dutton:   Patriots, Cowboys, Steelers

Tendencies: Success, image, and overall legacy are all that matter. Stubborn in their ways to a fault and can be obnoxiously boisterous in pride with a “my way or the highway” approach to daily life that sometimes blinds them to the current ways of the world. A driving resentment lies beneath the surface with the John Dutton's, one born from a lost love or some sort of past trauma, such as losing a wife, a quarterback named Tom, or simply not having won a trophy in two or more decades.

Reality:   Apt to take a beating from time to time in spite of themselves. Can lose sight of the present while reminiscing on how great the past was. Still win many battles but the overall war is long and tiresome at this point. Turnover at the top is near, and younger generations will soon run the show.

Outlook:   Has all the tools to run this thing and come out on top in the end, but it won't be without a scowl and some heavy limping.

Odds to Advance/Overall Rating:  3 1/2 out 5 train stations.

 

Beth Dutton:  Raiders

Tendencies: Questionable rationale in most day-to-day actions. Full of raging mood swings that border on criminal, but such coping tools have saved them from loss & depression and, on occasion, near death. Such a glorious train wreck at times that it’s hard not to watch and even harder not to root for the wreck. Not uncommon to have a bomb explode in their face, hold a gun to their own heads, or fumble with the game on the line. It’s often ugly in Beth’s world but somehow they're still here despite giving up a million 4th and longs to the LA Chargers.

Reality:  Seems to mean well most of the time but rarely able to get out of their own way. Also seems to Not mean well most of the time and happy to get in anybody else's way. Who knows. 

Outlook:  Will either explode gloriously or implode gloriously. It depends on the day.

Odds to Advance/Overall Rating:  2 1/2 out of 5 bottles of booze, leave the glass in the cupboard.

 

Kayce Dutton:  Rams, 49'ers, Packers, Buccaneers, Chiefs

Tendencies:  Generally likable and tends to look good in whatever situation he's in. Ball cap, cowboy hat, fishing, packing heat, shirt on, shirt off, 70's porn 'stache, Kevlar vest… it doesn’t matter. Most everyone else could learn from the Kayce’s of the league and secretly have a desirable eye to be like them. If you're a Kayce Dutton, you can usually take anyone’s best shot and shoot back with vigilant and valiant precision. 

Reality: Future is extremely bright, widespread success seems imminent even if it doesn't fit the exact mold of the groundwork their predecessor(s) set. Most likely to become the next John Duttons but content on doing it their own way, with a touch of old school and a whole bunch of refreshing new clarity on how to keep the straight and narrow. Kayce Dutton's are successful bards of their generation with bountiful gains foreseeable in the next 5 years. Even with struggles in some of the more private matters that others don't see, Kayce is always looking to do the best. Respect.

Outlook:  Favorites to do something that is both good and badass.

Odds to Advance/Overall Rating:  4 out of 5 Livestock Commissioner raids.

 

Jamie Dutton:  Bengals, Eagles, Cardinals

Tendencies:  Generally fighting for relevance even though it's not quite evident that such an accolade is warranted. This leads to conflict and self-doubt that makes it almost paralyzing for the Jamie's to establish themselves even though the desire to have some success is palpable. Not really used to winning, but rest assured they are capable of causing chaos and unrest to others as they try their asses off.

Reality: Quite possibly --nay, absolutely-- the most intriguing character of the bunch. Not only is it hard sometimes to figure out how a Jamie Dutton fits in, but it's equally mysterious as to how his next game plan might play out. The upside to such ambiguity is that Jamie can be somewhat of a wild card, and wild cards come as loose cannons. It's also possible they are more capable than everyone else thinks, which adds a level of danger. The downside is they have weird looking hair and are adopted. Should definitely stay away from Beth, which does not bode well for Cincy.

Outlook:  Potential is there, but very likely to wimp out or cry like a wussy if things get super difficult.

Odds to Advance/Overall Rating:  1 1/2 out of 5 conniving political campaigns.

 

Rip Wheeler:    Titans, Bills

Tendencies: Misplaced and unresolved anger from troubled pasts are bubbling underneath the top layer with our Rip Wheeler's. Whether an 0-4 Super Bowl record or losing the big one by less than a yard as time expired, such pangs still burn as deep as losing your mother and brother to an abusive father and then shooting that bastard. Decades later, learning to channel that into pure badassery and an image of being something that no one wants a piece of seems to be a primary M.O. 

Reality:  Behind the shades and without that toothpick exists a second layer where soft spots can be exposed if the right game plan is called (or if the breasts are as nice as Beth's). Either way, if you can find your way to it and peel back the bravado or stop Derek Henry, an easier version will surface. Despite the tough guy swagger, Rip Wheeler's don't have a lot of true power to wield in life, and have little to show from the past other than being relocated and/or loyal as hell. All of this together presents something bigger and better dying to happen, but until inner demons are dealt with (or Bill Belichick-- I mean, John Dutton-- dies), Rip remains just a scary dude in the AFC bunkhouse.

Outlook:  If in a fight, they're gonna fight back and they just might win, so watch out who you mess with.

Odds to Advance/Overall Rating:  3 1/2 out of 5 rattlesnakes in a lunch cooler.

So here we go! The best time of the football season is here, and the picks for Wild Card Weekend will be posted by Saturday's kickoff. Here is how the regular season finished up:

Last Week Straight Up Winners: 11-5

Current Season Total Straight Up Winners: 176-96

Last Week Against the Spread: 8-8

Current Season Total Against Spread:  144-125-3

"The Lombardi Trophy is the trailer park. The next three weekends are the tornado."  

--Beth Dutton (Well, sorta. I'm paraphrasing.)

The Rube Goldberg Edition: The Bird's Week 18 NFL Picks

Under normal circumstances, I usually spend the final week of the season desperately blogging picks aimed at salvaging my pick'em record and trying to gain some momentum heading into the postseason.

However, since I've had such a strong season and already clinched my spot in the playoffs, I'll be resting some of my picks this week in lieu of risking injury.

Seriously though, this was a strong finish for the ages! 28-4 straight up and 20-11-1 ATS for Weeks 16 & 17 combined?

I’d say I’m “dialed in” and picking my best picks when it matters most, but I know the prognostication game is a fickle one and can change directions at any time. So let’s just focus on keeping it rolling and nothing more.

With key players resting, final scores changing the landscape of the playoff seeding in real time, teams clinching and having little to play for as the brackets solidify, and others having nothing to play for at all, this is the week to bet 1st half spreads and walk away. Or don’t bet at all. Backdoor covers will be king today, so take the points if you must feed your gambling soul.

With 130 -One Hundred and Thirty!!- different seeding scenarios still possible in the AFC alone, this is truly an exciting time for several teams hanging on to hope, not to mention all fans of Rube Goldberg machines.

The regular season comes to an end over the next 48 hours. Here are the Week 18 picks! 

Kansas City (-10.5) at Denver

A Chiefs win and a Tennessee loss gives KC home field advantage throughout the AFC Playoffs. Aside from the fact that Tennessee is playing the University of Houston Texans on Sunday, technically the outcome of that game won’t yet be known, so I fully expect Denver to get beat down into the bloody pulp of embarrassing shame they are.

Denver simply cannot score with these guys, and their usually relied-upon defense is missing it’s entire secondary it seems. Uh-oh.

Chiefs 31  Broncos 17

Dallas at Philadelphia (+4.5)

Dallas has clinched the NFC East and other than possibly moving up from the 4 seed to the 3 seed, there’s really not much to play for here other than to not blow out any knees or make Tony Romo’s out of anyone with a healthy back. 

This game will be damn near apathetic on both sides.

Cowboys 16  Eagles 13

Pittsburgh (+3.5) at Baltimore 

No Lamar Jackson for the 4th week in a row, which means the Ravens need a Tyler “Snoop” Huntley win, a Chargers loss, a Colts loss, a Dolphins loss or tie, and a partridge in a pair tree, in order to make the postseason.

Pittsburgh needs a far greater miracle of contingent and timely events than that, and they don’t even get to put in a fresh and eager young lad at quarterback. That being said, I like Big Ben for one last cover here.

If all of these things work, the Ravens are in!

Steelers 17  Ravens 16

Cincinnati at Cleveland (-5.5)

No Joe Burrow for this one as the Bengals have decided to rest their signal caller in advance of the Wild Card playoff game coming in two weeks. Gotta hand it to Cincinnati: for a team not very often in these waters, they are already acting like they know what it's like to be here and what it takes to be "playoff ready."

Also, Joe Mixon has a case of the ’Rona.

Such a lack of fire power from the very team who's made it a tradition to be the antithesis of "fire power" reminds me I cannot pick a gang of Cincinnati backups, on the road, against a refined bunch of humans like Clevelanders. Not this weekend.

Browns 20  Bengals 14 

 

Washington at New York Giants (+7)

Quarterback Mike Glennon dropped back to pass 17 times last week against the Bears. It went like this: strip sack, interception, sack, 4 yd pass, incomplete, 12 yard pass, strip sack, incomplete, 12 yard pass, 13 yard scramble, pass for 4 yard loss, incomplete, sack, strip sack, incomplete, incomplete, interception. 

Sheesh. And I thought the Broncos’ offense was horrendous and unwatchable. 

I’ll pick Washington to win, NY to back door the cover.

Washington 23  Giants 17

Chicago (+5.5) at Minnesota 

At this point in the season, there is no reason to waste any brain cells on this game.

Vikings 27  Bears 24

Tennessee at Houston (+10.5)

Houston has knocked off the Chargers and these very Titans for 2 of their 3 wins this season. Tennessee's losses have come to playoff teams in New England and Arizona, as well as a resurgent Pittsburgh club... but also to the Jets who, coincidentally, have beaten the Bengals who beat the Chiefs who beat the Packers, who saw Ferris pass out at 31 Flavors last night.

Apparently it's pretty serious.

If the Texans can topple the incumbent #1 seed in the AFC for the second time six weeks, then they will officially be the greatest crappy team of all the crappy teams in the NFL this season. I'm thinking no way. But I’ll take the points and assume the Texans cover the spread. 

Titans 30  Texans 20 

 

Indianapolis at Jacksonville (+15.5)

Apparently there is a real movement going on for all Jags fans in attendance to dress up like clowns in protest of what is going on in the Bold City of the South. Here’s an idea:

Fans in Jacksonville will bring a real “It”
feeling to the stadium this Sunday.

Colts 31  Jaguars 17

Green Bay (-3) at Detroit 

Just like the Green Bay Packers, I am resting some of my picks this week while awaiting the Playoffs.

Packers 27  Lions 17 

 

New York Jets (+16) at Buffalo

Same here. 

Bills 26  Jets 13 

 

New Orleans (-3.5) at Atlanta

The Saints are in with a win and a San Fran loss in LA against the Rams. Sounds very motivating, not to mention doable for a team who just two weeks ago shut out Tom Brady and the Bucs. Geaux Rams!

Saints 26  Falcons 20

Carolina at Tampa Bay (-8)

I’m resting this pick as well.

Bucs 20  Panthers 10

San Francisco (+5) at LA Rams

San Francisco is in with a win and since they won’t know know the Saints outcome I suspect the 49’ers will play inspired ball while scoreboard watching on the sidelines. Not sure if they beat a Rams team who is playing for a chance at the Division title and a home playoff game, but I will take the gold diggers getting 5 points.

Rams 31  Niners 27

New England at Miami (+6.5)

As I endure what will become the sixth straight season (and longest stretch of my lifetime) without a Broncos playoff game, I also wait to see what brilliant “rebuilding” blocks the Orange & Blue will dream up this offseason - their sixth attempt at building a winner since winning it all way back in Super Bowl 50. 

Meanwhile, Bill Belichick lost the greatest quarterback the game has ever known and all he did was flip his entire roster in less than one full season; rebranding the Pats with a team full of youngsters and rookies who are immediately contributing alongside a first-year quarterback who is already light years ahead of several higher-touted rookie QB’s, including #1 overall Trevor Lawrence. Amazing.

I swear I can smell an annoying Super Bowl run coming out of Bean Town again. 

Patriots 23  Dolphins 17

 

Seattle at Arizona (-5.5)

The Cardinals will be playing their arses off and hoping for a 49’ers win in LA, so I lean slightly towards an Arizona romp here.

Cardinals 27  Seachickens 12

LA Chargers at Las Vegas (+3)

The “Win-and-You’re-In” Bowl pits each of Denver’s last two opponents against each other with the 7th and final AFC playoff spot on the line. As much as they each wish they could be playing the Donkeys again this week, neither team will be so lucky. 

This will be a shootout and I have to be honest, as much as Vegas has been through this season… from the Gruden firing to the Ruggs DUI incident, to Mark Davis’s haircut… it’s hard not to root for the Raiders to get into the tournament.

Did I just say that out loud? I’ll go shower off now.

The Raiders: they’ve been through
more shit than Andy Dufresne.

Raiders 34  Chargers 31

Bird Droppings, out. 

See you next week for the Wild Card Playoffs! 

Last Week Straight Up Winners: 15-1

Current Season Total Straight Up Winners: 165-91

Last Week Against the Spread: 10-5-1

Current Season Total Against Spread:  136-117-3

College Bowls, Ski Bowls & The Eggnog Bowl: The Bird’s Week 17 NFL Picks

You'll forgive me I hope, for posting a Christmas poem last week and for this week's lack of witty sage and detailed game analytics.

You see, The Bird has been doing a bit of skiing, some college bowl watching, and partaking way too heavily in Christmastime desserts and bevvies to get the regular blog done.

Ahhh the Gasparilla Bowl is on!

Time to shred...

It's good. It's good.

Don't mistake any of this for indifference though! The picks have been spot on lately, and here at Bird Droppings, Inc. we've climbed to +14 games above .500 --against the spread!-- and a whopping +60 games above .500 picking straight up winners. Not bad. Not bad at all!

Just think, had you wagered a crisp Benjamin on every game this season with the sagacious advice of The Droppings, you'd be up a cool $1400 and Christmas would already be paid for. Huzzahhh!

They say the best time to plant a tree is twenty years ago, so if you haven't gotten on board yet, it's time to hop on!  Not to mention, my playoff predictions are already taking shape and will make for a heady and wonderfully inspiring read when the regular blog posting returns in two weeks! 

For now however, here are my visions for Week 17:

Miami at Tennessee (-3)  Titans 23  Dolphins 17

Atlanta at Buffalo (-14)  Bills 30  Falcons 14

Las Vegas at Indianapolis (-7.5)  Colts 27  Raiders 17

Jacksonville at New England (-16.5)  Patriots 27  Jags 6

Tampa Bay (-13.5) at New York Jets  Buccaneers 31 Jets 17

Los Angeles Rams (-6.5) at Baltimore  Rams 37  Ravens 17

Philadelphia (-6.5) at Washington  Eagles 23  Washington 10

New York Giants at Chicago (-6.5)  Bears 17  Giants 10

Kansas City at Cincinnati (+4.5) Bengals 38  Chiefs 35

Denver at LA Chargers (-7.5)  Chargers 29  Broncos 20

Houston (+14) at San Francisco  49’ers 24  Texans 17

Arizona (+6.5) at Dallas  Cardinals 30  Cowboys 27

Detroit (+8.5) at Seattle  Seahawks 23  Lions 20

Carolina at New Orleans (-7)   Saints 24  Panthers 16

Minnesota at Green Bay (-12)  Packers 34  Vikings 14

Cleveland (+3) at Pittsburgh (+3.5)  Steelers 23  Browns 17

Skiing is a dance and the mountain always leads. Happy New Year, everyone!

Last Week Straight Up Winners: 13-3

Current Season Total Straight Up Winners: 150-90

Last Week Against the Spread: 10-6

Current Season Total Against Spread:  126-112-2