A Long Overdue, Long Broncos Rant and The Bird’s Week 12 NFL Picks

You’ll have to forgive me. Normally it’s Week 4 or 5 by the time I unleash a 10 paragraph diatribe of disgust on the state of my Denver Broncos. Better late than never I guess.

Feel free to scroll past for this week’s picks, or… grab a beer and a pitchfork and listen in with me.

This is infuriating. As I watched New England last Thursday night claim their 6th win in a row, chugging along and growing their new identity with a rookie QB that could have very easily been drafted by the Broncos, the realization of Denver’s dysfunctional state overwhelmed and left me with a case of the angry ass. Or maybe that was the Taco Bell I was eating. Either way, it brewed in me. Even if Mac Jones isn’t the lone reason for New England’s success; even if he turns out not to be the second coming in New England; the point that follows is this: the Pats were 1-3 back in September, and paired with last season’s struggles, life after Brady was looking dire. But their coaching staff understands the reward that comes with being pliable in the face of difficult decisions. Having some semblance of a vision never hurt anybody either.

The Broncos as it were, slinked into their bye week on the heels of one of the most disappointing home losses in a long while just one week after looking totally legit in Dallas. We had hope. God forbid it was the first time I’d felt any hope since I woke up the morning of Super Bowl 50, but at least it was hope. 

And then the Week 10 crap show against Philly took place. Teddy Bridgewater made the most unforgivable lack of effort play I think I’ve ever seen in football, and all of it idled sadly for two weeks to become the poster image for what this team’s growing identity is.

The yellow arrow highlights all you need to know 
about what kind of team the Broncos have become.

If the leader of your team, the friggin’ quarterback, is allowed to quit —in the middle of a play— and still keep his job, then everyone can. Right?

Bla. Despite this signature moment by their unimpassioned quarterback, Denver entered the bye week at 5-5 and well within “the hunt” in the AFC. If nothing else, they had a significant sample size of what they have, who they have, and what they needed to change during the two week rest. No better time for making some inflight mid season adjustments than when you have 14 days to do so.

And what did they do?  NOTHING.

Pathetic. Are they seriously that pleased with things? Or just stupidly confident in their current state of being? When you have personnel authorities who seem blind (or neglectful) to making honest talent decisions because of pride or stupidity or whatever the hell it is, you’ve got problems. The last time I looked, loyalty and ignorance don’t win much.

All of Broncos Country hoped the team would have used their two week bye period to implement some (any?) key adjustments and changes heading into the final 7 week stretch of the season. A stretch that, despite all of the above, still had flickers of hope.

And they made…?  Exactly no changes.

Not a coaching change. Not a swap at quarterback. Perhaps naming Javonte Williams (my vote for Team MVP, not to mention Most Pleasant Surprise on this otherwise underachieving roster) as the lead #1 running back? Nope. How about making Albert O. the number one tight end and moving on from mega bust Noah Fant? Nope again. Change up the play calling duties? Alleviate the head coach from trying to juggle between head coaching AND defensive coordinating at the same time? Nope and Nope. Where is this vaunted secondary we heard about all off-season with the additions of Kyle Fuller and Ronald Darby? We paid $40M for those two!? Where is Bradley Chubb? Did I mention Noah Fant already? Are we sure that’s not Ashley Lelie in disguise?

Listen. Drew Lock may not fair any better at quarterback than Teddy Two Gloves has, and given the unimaginative play calling abilities of Pat Shurmur it’s safe to say he probably wouldn’t. But I’ll say this: he’d bring more energy and passion, more downfield threats, and sometimes —the week after your regular quarterback announces his retirement in the middle of a play usually makes for good timing— a change for change’s sake can be catalytically good. One thing I know for damn sure: he’d have chased down a cornerback running by with the game clinching fumble in his hands like Andy Reid chasing a burrito truck, and not just waved him by like a disinterested matador.

The fact that not even a change at QB was made during the two week idle period further enforces that this group of decision makers have their minds made up, whether right or wrong (and they’ve been mostly wrong, let’s be honest). Either they refuse the humility of righting any poor decisions made so far, or they just believe whole heartedly in their loyalties even when none of them any longer pass the eye test.

Vic Fangio, George Paton, and the Broncos brain trust had a chance to change some things this week. Most importantly, they had a chance to make sure the Teddy B play vs. Philadelphia didn’t become a season-defining moment. Instead, they rested on laurels that aren’t paying dividends and said, “Nah. We’re good, yo.”

Sigh. Until this team gets an owner in place, such cries for accountability will stay exactly where they are: in the Bird Droppings, on the deaf ears of Broncos’ brass, and in the broken hearts of Broncos fans not at all used to such long stretches of NFL irrelevancy.

Rest in peace, Pat Bowlen. The proud and winning franchise you left behind sure does miss you.

Now then. Wiping the spit of outrage from my lips and moving on to Week 12. Ladies and gentlemen, the picks… 

Note: Arizona and Kansas City have the week off. Both of those teams are heading straight for the playoffs and have plenty of good things happening. That said, I bet even they make some changes and fix some of their problems during their bye. Because, well, that’s what good teams do.

Atlanta at Jacksonville (+2.5)

I have been burned by the Falcons all season long. I keep expecting them to be able to hang offensively, but then they go out and give up copious amounts of points leading to insurmountable deficits.

Even on a weekend against the Jags, when I feel like this is a good spot to take them, I no longer can stomach the idea of betting on Atlanta.

Jaguars 20  Falcons 19

New York Jets at Houston (-2.5)

The less said about this game the better. And please don’t watch it. But that doesn’t mean I can skip the pick. 

[closes eyes, throws dart].

Texans 16  Jets 13

Tennessee (+7) at New England

Clash of the Titans and I’m not sure at this point if that refers to Tennessee or New England. The Patriots look disgustingly like themselves of late. I’ll bet the evil empire wins today, but for a proud and solid team who is desperate to get back on track, +7 points is too juicy to pass up.

Taking Tennessee plus the points. 

Patriots 27  Titans 24

Philadelphia (-4) at New York Giants

Don’t look now but Philadelphia is smelling blood in the waters of the NFC East. With Jalen Hurts spreading his wings and quietly becoming a viable NFL QB, and with Dallas tripping all over themselves, the Eagles are beginning to see a door opening. And New York is awful.

Eagles 27  Giants 16

Pittsburgh (+4.5) at Cincinnati

I am somewhere in the range of 3-8 or 4-7 when picking Bengals games this year.

Such a record places me squarely in the same realm as the Dolphins, Bears, and Giants... and I am not fond of the association.

My only recourse is to pick exactly against my gut here. Since I think Cincinnati should win this game something in the way of 31-24, I'll instead take the Steelers to keep it within the spread.

Bengals 28  Steelers 24

Tampa Bay at Indianapolis (+3)

I don’t think I can go against this Colts team right now. Not with Jonathan Taylor running his way straight past the Tom Brady’s and Aaron Rodgers’ of the world and into the lead for MVP of the 2021 season.

The Colts have won 5 of their last 6 and for my money’s worth are the hottest team on the planet.  The horseshoes getting points as home dawgs is the play here me thinks. I like them to steal the outright win as well. 

Colts 30  Buccaneers 28

Carolina (-2.5) at Miami

Carolina is 2-6 in their last 8 games. Miami has won 3 in a row. That being said, both teams generally have the same record and appear to have many similarities.

I think that Carolina is pissed that they have been losing so much while the Fins are relieved that they have won a few games.

In any fight not involving the French Army, I will generally take the stronger pissed-off guy over the weaker satisfied guy.

Panthers 23 Dolphins 17

Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5) at Denver 

After an impressive rant like the one above, I sure as heck can’t scroll down to here and pick Denver to win, much less cover, can I? I still have more rhetorical struggles, like: Do you think they’ll fire Vic Fangio when he bumbles his way to a loss two weeks from now against the 0-11-1 Lions?

Okay so maybe that’s not rhetorical.

I’ll pick L.A. here to win and cover.

Chargers 24  Broncos 23 

Minnesota (+3) at San Francisco

Minnesota’s record doesn’t reflect as much, but they are a very solid football team. Take away some heartbreaking losses early on and they might be 7-3 or 8-2 instead of 5-5. One constant all season long with the Purple? They cover spreads and keep games close. They’re also 4-1 on the road and that doesn’t bode well for a team who is 1-4 at home.

Minnesota it is.

Vikings 27  49’ers 24

Los Angeles Rams (+1.5) at Green Bay

What we have here are two solid NFC favorites, maybe the top two favorites, but both teams are struggling of late. If we were talking underwear we’d have skid marks, as the Pack has lost two of their last three and the Rams have fallen twice in a row since their big makeover with recent trades and signings. That makes this one of the hardest games to pick this week.

I’ll give a slight lean to the road underdogs, as head coach Sean McVay promised his team would “come out friggin’ swinging” after their bye, and Green Bay has a QB with toe issues and who is missing two starters on his offensive line. This might be the game that Aaron Donald and Von Miller win for L.A.

Rams 29  Packers 17

Cleveland at Baltimore (-3.5)

You gotta admire Baker Mayfield’s toughness, but at some point “playing tough” doesn’t necessarily make it the right thing for the team. All of Cleveland seems to know this except for Kevin Stefanski and Baker himself.

Not only do the Browns seem to have all the issues of a monkey on a rock because of this, but from what I saw they got damn lucky that Detroit had to play their backup QB last weekend. 

Now. They might get lucky again this week as they go up against a Baltimore team who’s quarterback apparently hasn’t learned to wash his hands and has the immune system of a newborn baby, but I wouldn’t count on it. 

Why is Lamar always battling a case of the Mudbutt?

Given the state of Cleveland’s football team of late, I think I like the Ravens here. If Jackson took his Flintstones vitamins this week and actually plays, I really like the Ravens. 

Ravens 30  Browns 20

Seattle at Washington (-2.5)

Seattle is off to their worst start ever under Pete Carrol and Russell Wilson is staring down the barrel of the first three game losing streak of his career.

Washington, contrarily, has rejuvenated their fringe playoff hopes by virtue of winning two in a row and also because they play in the world’s worst division where every year, eight wins might win the East.

In this week’s sign that the apocalypse is coming, Taylor Heinicke is probably the better quarterback heading into this one. Washington plays its first home prime time game since 2012 and the RFK crowd of men dressed as hogs should be rowdy, loud, and impassioned. I think Washington has the edge here. 

PS. Yes, I know it’s no longer RFK Stadium but I have a disease where I still call every NFL Stadium by its name from when I was a kid. 

Washington 24  Seahawks 21 

Thanks everyone! Remember: The Bird Droppings always taste better as leftovers. 

Last Week Straight Up Winners: 6-9

Current Season Total Straight Up Winners: 103-62

Last Week Against the Spread: 8-7

Current Season Total Against the Spread:  85-78-2

Gobble Gobble: The Bird’s Thanksgiving Day Picks

Now that we're all just waiting on that little plastic thing to pop out of the turkey, its time to sit back, watch some football, and reminisce on that time Leon Lett made us all laugh gravy out our nose at the Cowboys. 

I'll start with the blessings by saying I am grateful I can only be wrong three times today.

Here are my Turkey Day picks.

Chicago (-3) at Detroit

In my lifetime, the term “Thanksgiving dinner” has become synonymous with “Hey, wanna come over and watch Detroit get their asses kicked?” 

I am grateful for this, as while recent trial verdicts, mask mandates, and other current topics of social strife do indeed make excellent table talk at any gathering, a well-timed "how ’bout them Lions?" can provide a much-needed blast of levity to tense conversations.

Today I’d like to lean towards the winless guys to make everyone but Chicagoans proud to be American, but two things prevent me from doing so:

1. How can I pick a team quarterbacked by some dude named Tim Boyle? Didn’t he win Britain’s Got Talent several years ago? Even pitted against Andy Dalton I simply cannot do this. 

2. I have myself 93% convinced the Lions are saving their first win for Week 14, when they do so against the bumbling Vic Fangio and my poor Denver Broncos. I don’t want to be the guy who predicts this on December 12th, so I will just casually forewarn everyone in Broncos Country now.

Today, the Bears are my pick.

Bears 26  Lions 16

Las Vegas (+7.5) at Dallas

Not a good spot for a Dallas team coming off a tough loss on a short week and missing some very key pass catchers on offense.

The ’Boys are 1-9 against the spread the last 10 Thanksgivings, and if I’m paying attention to trends I also should point out that the AFC West is 3-0 against America’s Team this year as the Chargers, Broncos and Chiefs have all taken turns kicking Dallas in the nuts already.

These types of stats are just begging for a Raider win and cover. I’ll bite on the cover, but I’m too chicken to pick a Las Vegas win. 

Cowboys 29  Raiders 24

Buffalo (-5.5) at New Orleans

What in the hell has happened to Buffalo?

Up until about Halloween they looked like the clear leaders in the AFC and seemed to be well on their way to the Super Bowl. Then that Jacksonville game happened and ever since it has looked like just another long winter is coming to the Land of No Trophies.

Sadly, New Orleans doesn’t look any better than Buffalo but at least I know why the Saints suck. They’ve lost their QB, they’ve lost their RB and best player, and they play their home games in a stinky hurricane shelter.

What to do? Betting wise, I don’t like this game at all. While the rarity of a Thanksgiving prime time game is surely a big deal for the fine folks of New Orleans and should make for a rowdy good time on Bourbon Street, I’ll roll the dice on Buffalo to rebound here.

Bills 31 Saints 20

Have a great and thankful day with friends and family, everyone! As long as I can get out of the recliner after today, the rest of this week’s picks (along with my annual bye week rant on the state of the Denver Broncos) will surface sometime before Sunday. 

What Would Costanza Do: The Bird's Week 11 NFL Picks

Okay, this season is officially nuttier than squirrel turds.

The last three NFL weekends have been replete with absurd happenings, unforeseen choke jobs, and inspired upsets by teams who otherwise get clobbered by 30 points all the time.

November alone has brought us the Jaguars absolutely stuffing the Bills, the hapless Jets blasting conference-leading Cincinnati, the Broncos bitch-slapping Dallas, and that team formerly named after indigenous peoples with darker hued epidermises than Anglo Saxons making Tom Brady look like Vinny Testaverde in Washington's complete smack down of the Bucs. 

The hell is going on out there??

Shit is so crazy right now, that I swear I saw Cam Newton last Sunday. Cam Newton is back?? Oh, and the Lions didn’t lose!

Do you hear me, people? THE LIONS DIDN’T LOSE!! 

This madness is impossible to pick lately, and all of us are suffering in our pick’em pools and betting apps as a result. Even the Bird Droppings are in the red each of the past two weekends —a first for this season— and I can’t stand for that.

So, without further adieu, again it is time.... 

"If every instinct you have is wrong, then the opposite would have to be right."

-- Jerry, to George, in "The Opposite"

Time for The Bird to dial up an old slump-busting trick of Seinfeldian proportions. Ladies and gentlemen, I recount for you an episode called, "The Opposite.”

In this classic, a simple pick up line in the coffee shop proves Jerry's theory that every instinct George has is wrong. In concession, George spends the remainder of the episode picking the opposite of his intuition in every decision he makes. The result? He lands an attractive girlfriend, a dream job with the New York Yankees, and an apartment that allows him to finally move out of his parents' house.

 

"Bald men with no jobs and no money who live with their parents don't approach strange women."

-- George, in "The Opposite"

 

I’ve seen it work on TV, and long time readers of the Droppings may or may not remember that I have played this angle before. I know it will work for predicting this week’s winners (against the spread at least. Baby steps), and by next week's post we'll be back to our regular soothsaying and Jimmy the Greek-like prognosticating.

But for now, nothing can be trusted to common sense and logic. Week 11 is here and I am asking myself, WWCD… "What would Costanza do?"

 

New England at Atlanta (+7)

In a development that has everyone outside of Beantown throwing up in their mouths and shuddering with cold sweats and ghastly visions of the past twenty years, the Patriots are actually starting to look exactly like the Patriots again.

The Falcons just gave up something like a hundred points in one half and now have 5 losses by an average of 20 points each time they suck. Which, when they do, they suck gloriously. 

Seems like a straight forward pick to me, but in the Costanzian spirit of going against all better judgement…

WWCD: I’m betting the Falcons this day. It’s not a lie if you believe it, Jerry!

Falcons 27  Patriots 24

Baltimore at Chicago (+5)

Every fiber of my being says that Baltimore will recover from last Thursday's pathetic performance against the Dolphins, especially when I consider this week they are playing Chicago... who is just like the Miami of the NFC. Now don't get me wrong, that's a good thing three out of every ten weeks. But as this week goes, the Ravens seem like the logical pick as the better team.

WWCD: Since I'm going the other way of logical picks this week, I'll take the team that I just acknowledged has a good week three tenths of the time, plus the points.

Ravens 24  Chicago 21

 

Detroit (+11) at Cleveland

If not for the fact that living in Detroit has given Lions fans an impossibly high tolerance for depressing sights and events, the parking lots around Ford Field would be rife with self-immolation by now. And lucky for all of them, the Lions are again on the road this Sunday as they continue chasing that evasive first win.

The Browns meanwhile, despite being banged up and reeling, return home and should be fueled by pride and desperation after that ass beating they took in New England. They are clearly the better team even in their current state.

Which is to say...

WWCD: Only George Costanza in full rebellion against his better judgement would pick the 0-8-1 Lions to cover a road spread less than two touchdowns. Do not try this at home.

Browns 23  Lions 20

 

San Francisco at Jacksonville (+6)

The Niners just pummeled one of the top 3 teams in the league and appear to be finding some rhythm with two wins in their last three games. The Jaguars are 3-19 in their last 22 games.

WWCD: It's been since roughly Week 3 of the 2016 season, but today I will say again, "Take Jacksonville plus the points."

"A job with the New York Yankees! This has been the dream of my life ever since I was a child, and its all happening because I am completely ignoring every urge towards common sense and good judgement I've ever had. This is no longer just some crazy notion, Elaine, Jerry. This is my religion."  -- George, in "The Opposite"

49'ers 20  Jaguars 17

 

Washington (+3.5) at Carolina

I totally would have taken Carolina last week had I known Cam Newton would be inserted under center so immediately like that.

I also would have taken Washington had I known Taylor Heinicke was going to play like Tom Brady and Tom Brady was going to play like Taylor Heinicke. Did you read the part above about squirrel turds and absurd happenings in the NFL? 

This seems to be a slam dunk for the suddenly recharged Panthers, at home, and against a team I guarantee is due for the all-too-predictable letdown after blowing their wad in a signature win last Sunday against the world champs. Cam Newton is also likely frothing at the mouth with anticipation of going against his former coach, Ron Rivera.

Welp…

WWCD: Gimme the Washington Football Team babee!

Washington 23  Panthers 21 

 

Green Bay at Minnesota (+2.5)

This one is tricky even on the opposite scale. Normally we would all agree that Green Bay should win by at least a field goal, we'd all laugh at some fat guy with a cheese slice on his head, admire an even fatter woman with purple horns and a shield, and we would merrily Costanza our way into a Vikings-plus-the-points bet.

The absence of Aaron Jones, however, for a match up on the road against a team showing all season a strong knack for keeping games close, makes Minnesota as home dawgs a very enticing pick.

I still think Green Bay is the better team, and now with a defense that in the past three weeks has held Russell Wilson, Patrick Mahomes, and Kyler Murray to 1 combined TD and 4 INT, I'd probably bet the Pack in a heartbeat if asked. Which means...

WWCD: Minnesota is the bet.

Packers 31  Vikings 30

 

Indianapolis (+7) at Buffalo

Indianapolis is hot (5-2, after an 0-3 start), but their five wins have come against two rookie quarterbacks, Davis Mills, Jacoby Brissett, and Jimmy Garoppolo. Pretty damning evidence.

There's no way the Colts go on the road and hang within a touchdown of Josh Allen and the Bills. Right..?

WWCD: Buffalo may still win the game, but Indy keeps it close.

Bills 30  Colts 24

 

New Orleans (+2) at Philadelphia

"Who are you, George Costanza?"

 

--Victoria and George, in an intimate moment, in "The Opposite"

Philadelphia's gotta be licking their chops right now. Coming home after two big wins on the road and facing a Saints team without Alvin Kamara and without any semblance of a professional quarterback.

WWCD: Going against all of the warm fuzzies Philly has going for them and taking the team with the shittier QB, what else?

Saints 24  Eagles 21

 

Miami at New York Jets (+3.5)

The Jets feel like they are getting better, but I'm only basing that on the fact that lately they have only 'kind of' sucked. The thought here is that Miami, coming off a huge win and with an extra 3 days to prepare for a Jets team being quarterbacked by Joe Flacco, is the smart pick. So...

WWCD: Did I just say, "Joe Flacco?" Well then, The Jets it is!

Jets 24  Dolphins 22

 

Houston (+11) at Tennessee

Can anyone who hasn't been drinking Texas moonshine honestly tell me that the Texans are going to march into Music City and hang within four field goals of the best team in the AFC?

WWCD: Take the points and pass the moonshine.

Titans 26  Houston 17

 

Cincinnati at Las Vegas (+1.5)

Facts:

• A really good and really pissed off Bengals team returning from a two week break in which they had ample time to stew over back-to-back losses to the Jets and Browns.
• A Vegas team that has quietly been regressing over the past several weeks and has a recent history of starting strong and fading fast. 

Easy, right?

WWCD: Give me the Raiders. Reeling internally and facing a young and talented team coming off the bye and anxious to get back on the winning track. Costanza logic says so.

Raiders 28  Bengals 27

 

Dallas (+2.5) at Kansas City

Two teams who definitely got their swagger back last weekend square off in what should be the game of the week. Kansas City at home is almost always my pic, so in honor of the strategy this week…

WWCD: Dallas plus the points. I’m tempted to go “full George” here and pick an outright upset. Yeah, what the hell:

Cowboys 37  Chiefs 34

 

Arizona (-2.5) at Seattle

Three painstakingly long weeks ago Arizona looked to be in firm control of the NFC and remained as the league's only undefeated team. And with a bye on the horizon, thoughts now are that the Cards may shelve Kyler Murray for one more week to allow for additional time to heal that gimpy ankle. Not only does this reflect Arizona’s awareness of needing to protect their long term future as opposed to panicking for a short-sighted win now, but it also completely F#@!?*'s my fantasy team.

Seattle has Russell Wilson back and after knocking the rust off last week in the snow in Green Bay, the Seabirds' QB should be ready to return to form at home this week.

Seattle here, yeah?

WWCD: Take the team that is without their quarterback and best wide receiver, has lost two of three games after starting the season 7-0, and is playing a traditionally difficult divisional foe who is desperate to save their season of course! 

Cardinals 27  Seahawks 24

 

Pittsburgh at Los Angeles Chargers (-4.5)

The Chargers have dropped three of their past four. Last weekend they lost to a team that had 5 starters out on the Covid list and who's star RB had a former girlfriend file a civil suit against him just before the plane departed St. Paul. Yikes. After a crazy hot start to the season, it's almost as if Norv Turner has taken over the coaching again for L.A.

Pittsburgh meanwhile is unbeaten in their last five games, which would be pretty cool except for one of those "non-losses" was last week's tie to a team who was otherwise on their way to 0-17.

This one is hard to figure out. Which way is going the opposite of my gut?

WWCD: Since Pittsburgh is the hotter of these two teams and hasn't lost since October 3rd, they are the obvious pick as 41/2 point under dogs. Los Angeles, it is then!

Chargers 27  Steelers 22

 

New York Giants (+11.5) at Tampa Bay

I can't even wrap my brain around this pick. Taking the worst team in the NFC not named the Lions, on the road against an angry Tom Brady, and not getting at least 37 points from the odds makers? Deplorable.

WWCD: For the first time all season I think I will say, "Take the Giants."

Bucs 27  Giants 17

 

You've been Bird Dropped. Giddy up!

Last Week Straight Up Winners: 6-8

Current Season Total Straight Up Winners: 97-53

Last Week Against the Spread: 5-9

Current Season Total Against the Spread:  77-71-2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Short, Short Version: The Bird's Week 10 NFL Picks

Brevity beckons this week as The Bird is frolicking in the high country of the Rocky Mountains and only has time for some half-assed picks and some half-assed humor. Don't worry though, together they still make me one full ass.

Plus, at the 11th hour I accidentally deleted my entire write up for this week and had to start all over. So without further adieu, I present to you this week's Bird Droppings:

 

The Bird sanctimoniously delivers the short, short version.

Click Here: The Short, Short Version!

Week 10 is here and the picks are brief and to the point. Like Kansas City's defense, it should be pretty easy to rip through.

(Note: Cincinnati, Chicago and the Giants are all on official byes; Houston is taking their 10th consecutive week off as well.)

Here we go!

Baltimore (-7.5) at Miami

Apparently, so long as they aren't playing the Bengals, Baltimore can win games in a variety of ways and in the face of a multitude of adversities. Blowouts, comebacks, squeakers, 66 yard game winners, etc.

I'll take the team who has shown they can adjust and persevere to just about any tempo against the one who basically just sucks every week.

Ravens 30  Dolphins 20

Buffalo (-11) at New York Jets

It's almost impossible for me to imagine the Bills losing back-to-back games against such gutter dwellers as the Jaguars and Jets.

Bills 38  Jets 16

 

Jacksonville at Indianapolis (-10)

It's equally as impossible for me to imagine the Colts not taking advantage of back-to-back games against such gutter dwellers as the Jaguars and Jets.

Colts 28  Jaguars 17

 

Tampa Bay (-9) at Washington

I am not privy to the study habits of Ron Rivera vs. those of Bruce Arians, but in picking which coach will have done his homework enough to have his team prepared for an opponent after having two weeks in which to do so, I'm taking the dude who gets to send Tom Brady to take the test for him. Every time.

Buccaneers 31  Washington 20 

New Orleans at Tennessee (-2.5)

Just when we all thought the Derek Henry injury would pauperize the Titans' offense entirely, they march into L.A. like kings and beat the crap out of the Rams.

Meanwhile New Orleans still has major quarterbacking issues, and someone must've told Alvin Kamara he is on my fantasy team because he has stopped doing anything.  All of the above makes this an easy pick for me.

Titans 27  Saints 20

Atlanta at Dallas (-8)

I'll go on a hunch that Dallas gets completely re-calibrated on offense this week, and their defense will play with some heightened passion in the wake of last week's embarrassing loss to the Broncos.

Cowboys 37  Falcons 20

 

Detroit at Pittsburgh (-8)

The last time we saw the Lions they were getting hammered 44-6 by Philadelphia on Halloween.

Thanks to the bye Detroit has had an extra 7 days to prepare for this week's ass whooping, so I expect they will do it even better this Sunday.

Steelers 31  Lions 11

 

Cleveland (+2.5) at New England

You gotta love Baker Mayfield. Dude just got dissed by Odell Beckham Jr., Odell Beckham Sr., and LeBron James, is playing essentially with one arm, and yet continues to inspire a team who just two weeks ago looked to be reverting back into their factory of sadness days. Plus he's doing it all while living in Cleveland and never quite sure when he might have Chubb.

Click to See: Baker, Baker, Hyped Up Maker

The Progressive commercial guy is growing on me. And I hate New England.

Browns 23  Patriots 22

 

Carolina at Arizona (-10.5)

Whether or not the Cards get Kyler Murray back this Sunday may not matter when the other team is trotting out Sam Darnold. It really doesn't matter when the other team is trotting out P.J. Walker.

Cardinals 27  Panthers 10

 

Minnesota at Los Angeles Chargers (-2.5)   

The Bolts at home are the better of these two slightly-to-moderately better than average teams.

 

Chargers 30  Vikings 24

 

Philadelphia (+3) at Denver   

My therapist is working on my cynicism, so I will skeptically pick Denver to win and Philly to cover. Ahh, I feel so much better now.

Broncos 23  Eagles 21

 

Seattle at Green Bay (-3)   

Aaron Rodgers feels crucified as the victim of another Covid-related witch hunt AND gets to follow up Jordan Love's abysmal performance with a big dose of "I told you so" for Green Bay management? 

Look out, Seattle. Number 12 is about to go into "eff all of you" mode.

Packers 45  Seahawks 20

 

Kansas City at Las Vegas (+2.5)    

In Kansas City I see a team that is discombobulated at best. Had Aaron Rodgers played last week they might have lost 35-13 instead of that 13-7 win they eeked out.

And then there’s the Raiders...

Between the firing of their head coach, the tragedy of Henry Ruggs, and now the separation with a player who essentially threatened to murder a fan via a vulgar and disturbing Tik Tok video, I'm not sure I could trust them to win a jury trial much less a football game.

Chiefs 31  Raiders 30

Los Angeles Rams (-3.5) at San Francisco    

The Rams are coming off an embarrassing loss at home to Tennessee and are desperate to keep pace with the Packers and Cardinals in the NFC. The Niners couldn't beat Colt McCoy last week.

San Fran remains winless at home and I predict things are about to get ugly in the Bay Area after this one.

Rams 31  49'ers 17

 

I'll be back to city living and wildly overthinking the picks next week, friends. Until then, good luck with your pools and bets!

 

 

Last Week Straight Up Winners: 9-5

Current Season Total Straight Up Winners: 91-45

Last Week Against the Spread: 6-8

Current Season Total Against the Spread:  72-62-2

 

Cheers! The Bird's Week 9 NFL Picks

Last week was one of those perfect storm Sundays where just about everyone who knows even a little bit about football got hosed as upsets and bad beats trickled in all over the place.

Meanwhile Diane Chambers walked into the bar with such analytical acuity as the Jets wear prettier helmets than the Bengals and, in real life there is no way a Falcon could ever beat a Panther, and found great rewards for her keen predictions!

Click This Link to See: Diane Chambers' Pick'em Tips!

The entire weekend, from key injuries to game-impacting horrible calls, seemed otherworldly.

Pittsburgh's kicker got a concussion, backup quarterbacks with less notoriety than the milk man were leading teams to unexpected wins, and the comedy duo of Vic Fangio and Pat Shurmur were running plays, stopping the clock, and fumbling the ball over to the other team with less than a minute to go and a 7 point lead.  I'm telling you, everything about Week 8 was absurd.

Let’s hope for an end to such silliness this weekend so that we may all get back on track. Diane would like to inform you that teams in blue, red, and pewter are sitting this week out as Detroit, Seattle, Washington and Tampa all have byes.

Week 9 is here. Cheers!

 

New York Jets at Indianapolis (-10.5)

I'm seriously having trouble figuring out the Indianapolis Colts. Are they a borderline-good team trapped in a borderline-not-as-good-as-I-think body?  Or are they a border-line good team who just happens to have some respectable losses against very good teams?

That dilemma sucks for picking this game because I'm just as equally confused as to how in the hell the New York Jets can lose 54-13 one week and then beat the number one team in the AFC the next.

The Bird needs a lifeline to figure this one out.

 

I guess through 8 weeks you kind of are who you are, although I’m learning the hard way that I still don't know what that means for either of these teams. I'll take the Colts to win and I’ll remind (convince?) myself that despite notching two huge upsets vs. Tennessee and Cincinnati, the Jets are still pretty damn shitty. Final answer.

Colts 30  Jets 14

Houston (+5.5) at Miami

I am almost too excited to pick here. Just kidding.

 

But in a match up of two crappy teams from two apathetic cities, who failed to make a DeShaun Watson trade in order to make this one slightly more entertaining for anyone unfortunate enough to have to watch it, it’s wise to just take the points and pray for your own soul.

Dolphins 20  Texans 18

Denver at Dallas (-9.5)

Even if the Cowboys are smart enough to rest Dak Prescot's calf for one more week and play that backup quarterback no one has ever heard of, I still think they are far superior to a Broncos team that just traded away the heart and soul of their franchise and who continues to torture their fans with pathetic coaching and a boring play book that is to football as snappers are to fireworks.

Pat Shurmur's Denver Offense. Stand back!

Cowboys 30  Broncos 17

 

Cleveland at Cincinnati (-2.5)

As if spending last week in the division cellar wasn’t bad enough for the Cleveland Browns, now Baker Mayfield is getting LaVar Ball’d by Odell Beckham Jr.’s dad and his head coach publicly used the “D” word in describing his team as desperate. Sans for the gift of playing the Denver Broncos a couple of Thursday’s ago, they could very well be on a four game skid and quickly reverting to their Factory of Sadness days.  

I also don’t feel any better about a Cincinnati squad whom just two weeks ago I picked to lose to Detroit under the very premise that the Bengals always have some Bungle in them. Turns out, I was a week too soon in predicting such bungling as last week the Bingle-Bengal-Bungles sullied their once-rising reputation by laying a Cincinnati steamer against the Jets. 

 

Heavy sigh. Ohio.

I’ll pick the striped helmets here, but only on the laurels that getting screwed by a laughable reffing decision last week is probably sufficient motivation for an angry win at home this week. Plus, the embarrassment of losing to the freaking Jets should spark the embers of redemption. 

Oh! And we're nearing the 32nd anniversary of my favorite impromptu public announcement speech in the history of impromptu public announcement speeches. Cincinnati it is!

 

 Click This Link to See: You Don't Live In Cleveland!

Bengals 27  Browns 23

 

Minnesota at Baltimore (-6)

It’s hard not to go with Baltimore here, coming off a bye and against a Vikings team who just lost a pivotal game at home to a guy named Cooper Rush.  

The purple Norsemen haven’t lost by more than 7 points this year, so the trend suggests taking Minnie plus the points. But who am I to follow lame trends? Baltimore wins and covers. 

Ravens 30  Vikings 20

 

Las Vegas (-3) at New York Giants

As a lifelong Bronco fan and Raider hater, even I have to admit feelings of deep sympathy for what has happened to the Silver & Black these past few weeks. 

 

I'll say this: the last time such upsetting misfortune settled in on Las Vegas, they took a serendipitous road trip to get away, rallied around each other, and beat the crap out of the Broncos. Since the Broncos have already beaten the crap out of the Giants, I can only expect a rallied Raider team to do similar.

Raiders 27  Giants 16

 

Atlanta (+7) at New Orleans

Calling simply on my lost nightmares of 2016, I cannot fathom why a Trevor Siemian lead team would be favored by a touchdown over a divisional rival and Matt Ryan, Rob or Rex Ryan, Meg Ryan, or any other Ryan who might be lining up across the way. 

 

Except for the Saints are starting to show a lot of talent in a lot of areas and just hammered Tom Brady and the Bucs… with Trevor Siemian. Good gawd, I’m so jealous of well-coached teams. 

Hunch says I should pick the fleur-de-lis here but divisional games usually produce close contests. I don't believe in Trevor Siemian enough to bet on the Saints, and I don’t trust the dirty birds enough to pick Atlanta to win. So a Falcons cover is the best I can convince myself of.

Saints 24  Falcons 20

Buffalo (-14) at Jacksonville

Just as I am learning to not trust the Chiefs and Broncos to cover any spreads as favorites, nor the Lions to beat any line no matter how many points you give them as underdogs; I am equally learning that Buffalo can absolutely be trusted to beat the crap out of crappy teams.

Bills 37  Jaguars 17

 

New England (-3.5) at Carolina

Normally I’d say a concussed and sidelined Sam Darnold is a blessing in disguise for the Panthers, but then I looked at their roster and realized the law firm of Love, Morgan, and Walker currently make up Carolina’s other quarterbacking options.

I can only assume Pats coach Mama Fratelli is licking her chops here. 

Pic of Bill Belichick preparing for
Carolina's quarterbacks this Sunday.

Patriots 23  Panthers 16

 

Los Angeles Chargers (-2) at Philadelphia

I'll admit my tendencies to lean towards teams who are still winless at home this late in the season despite having traditionally raucous home field advantages. You know, like Philly does, what with their proud history of throwing snowballs at Santa Claus and booing little children with cancer and all.

That being said, I like LA here coming off a bye well rested and well prepared against an Eagles team who has lost by an average of 8 points per game in three home losses already.

Chargers 31  Eagles 24

 

Arizona (-1) at San Francisco

It’s not advisable to bet this game as Arizona has stated both Kyler Murray and DeAndre Hopkins are game time decisions. Since I am picking three days before game time, I guess I’ll grab the Cardinals here and hope Murray gets to play.

Cardinals 26  49’ers 19

 

Green Bay (+7.5) at Kansas City 

With no Aaron Rodgers in the mix, this becomes a much more difficult game to assess for this prognosticator. I suppose if Jordan Love is going to make his NFL debut, who better to do it against than the team who has made all opposing quarterbacks and offenses look like Aaron Rodgers and Co. anyway? 

The football sadist in me would find extreme satisfaction in watching Kansas City fall at home to a rookie QB thrown into the fire four days before the game because of a Covid situation, and I won’t hide that I am actively rooting for this. 

That being said I’ll play it safe and pick the Chiefs to win a shootout, but because I can smell the stench of their defense from my seat here in Denver, I’ll go ahead and bet that Green Bay can keep up enough to keep it within 8. Just how well Jordan Love has handled his 18-month apprenticeship is the major wild card in this one though.

Chiefs 31  Packers 24

Tennessee at Los Angeles Rams (-7)

One team lost their most important player, Pro Bowler, and future Hall of Famer last week; the other added a Super Bowl MVP, Pro Bowler, and future Hall of Famer last week. Sound betting analysis if you ask me.

Rams 33  Titans 20

 

Chicago at Pittsburgh (-6)

Don't look now but Pittsburgh is on a roll, has reestablished themselves as a run heavy/tough defensive team of ham 'n eggers, and have notched three straight victories in their ascension from the AFC North basement. 

Chicago remains a leaf in the wind and they return their head coach --the only guy in the league calling worse plays than the nimrod in Denver-- back to the sidelines. Not a good look.

Pittsburgh is the obvious pick. 

Steelers 25  Bears 15

These have been your Week 9 Bird Droppings. From the blog where everybody knows your name. Cheers!

Last Week Straight Up Winners: 7-8

Current Season Total Straight Up Winners: 82-40

Last Week Against the Spread: 6-9

Current Season Total Against the Spread:  66-54-2