High Five: The Bird's Week 5 NFL Picks

High fives for make benefit of good picks, yes?

We sparkled at 12-4 Against The Spread last week, and 12-4 straight up. This is what I’m here for, bitches!

No need to say more. Let’s keep it going!

Week 5, here we go…

A Bird’s Eye View (picks and analysis)

Indianapolis at Denver (-3.5)

As if the coaching, play calling and overall results haven’t been challenging enough, now Denver is coming awfully close to meeting their deductible and it’s not even week 6.

Live look inside the Broncos’ team meetings this week.

Since the Miami Dolphins’ medical team isn't involved, I feel confident that none of Denver’s crippled guys will be cleared to play this week. 

All of that having been said, this does feel like a game where Denver can “get right.” Offensively, defensively, and everywhere else they are currently not kosher. At some point they’re going to… right?

Broncos 27  Colts 20

New York Giants (+8) at Green Bay

Again we tip our caps of condolence to those fluoride-deprived folks still mourning the loss of their Queen by sending over the very first game in the history of the London NFL series to actually pit two teams with winning records. God save the King.

I haven’t quite put my finger on why the Packers aren’t better than they’ve shown, and I know they will break out of it at some point, but Tottenham, England is not historically the place for feeling good about oneself. And Aaron Rodgers doesn’t even want to be there.

Green Bay wins, New York covers.

Packers 27  Giants 20

Detroit at New England (-2.5)

When your quarterback options are Brian Hoyer and some cat named Bailey Zappe, usually you are hosed. That is, unless your head coach is a grumpy old woman who roots for the Germans in war films.

Belichick rallying the Wehrmacht for this
week’s blitzkrieg against Detroit.

The Lions, meanwhile, are still somehow the Lions.

I’ll lean towards the Pats here to annoyingly find a way. Yes, with Bailey Zappe. Classic New England.

Patriots 23  Lions 20

Atlanta at Tampa Bay (-9)

Let’s see.

Tom Brady hasn’t lost 3 games in a row in TWENTY years. And now it appears he and Giselle are heading for divorce?

I don’t even have to consider Julio Jones’ return to Atlanta to know that Tom Brady 'bout to go to pound town on the dirty birds.

No Corderrelle Patterson and no Kyle Pitts for Atlanta doesn’t help to talk me out if this either.

Buccaneers 30  Falcons 14

Pittsburgh (+14) at Buffalo

Jesus, even for a team lane-changing from Mitch Trubisky to a rookie with tiny hands, that’s a lot of damn points. 

Pittsburgh’s defense is going to be busier than a one-legged man in a butt-kicking contest just trying to lay hands on Buffalo, let alone stop them.

I’ll assume the Bills pull all of their starters by the 4th quarter and Pittsburgh is able to sneak in a late score to cover a two touchdown spread. Then again, Buffalo might win by thirty.

Bills 30  Steelers 17

Miami at New York Jets (+3.5)

This is a tough one. 

While I've always respected that they never abuse the emotions of their fans by deluding them with illusions of greatness, the Jets do have some hope and momentum now as the Zach Wilson era is finally here for the third time.

On the other side you have the Teddy Bridgewater Dolphins.

I probably won’t respect myself in the morning, but give me the Jets and the points.

Miami wins ugly. I pick uglier.

Dolphins 20  Jets 17

Seattle (+5.5) at New Orleans

One of my rules in life is that whenever a team that is finding ways to win games plays a foe that is just as good at finding ways to lose them, always bet on the former.

With a credo like that, the nagging question of whether or not Erik the Red— I mean, Andy Dalton— starts again for New Orleans or not, is no longer relevant to this game.

Either way I like Seattle getting points against a 1-3 team who just flew in from Heathrow.

Saints 27  Seahawks 24

Houston at Jacksonville (-7)

I saw in this week’s power rankings that Houston is #32. Personally, I think that’s too high.

Jaguars 30  Texans 15

Tennessee (-2.5) at Washington

Tennessee seems to have found a bit of themselves while Washington is folding faster than Superman on laundry day.

Titans 23  Commanders 13

LA Chargers (-2.5) at Cleveland

Brutal loss for the Browns last week, which marks the second time this season the plain helmets have snatched defeat from the jaws of victory just like any good soul from Cuyahoga County would do.

Justin Herbert continues to get healthier, Keenan Allen is back, and the Chargers represent the first real defense Cleveland has had to face. None of this bodes well for the home team.

Chargers 27  Browns 24

Dallas (+5.5) at LA Rams

Last Monday night the Rams looked as if they have never handled a pass rush before. It was concerning. This is not at all how you wanna be against a defense who is turning opposing QBs into Mr. Incredible when he gets pummeled by those black blobs.

This could be Matt Stafford if LA tries to block Micah Parsons the same way they “blocked” last Monday.

Last thought: with Dak still out for Dallas, America’s Team gets to start their better quarterback for at least one more week. Ah, serendipity.

I’m a little chicken to pick an outright win, mainly because… it’s Dallas. But I do like them getting 5.5 points as underdogs.

Rams 20  Cowboys 17

Philadelphia (-5.5) at Arizona

Never bail on riding a tubular wave that shows no signs of crashing. Any lazy ass who lives a mile above sea level and has never surfed, but has seen Point Break a million times knows this.

I’m taking Gang Green again.

Eagles 29  Cardinals 22

Cincinnati (+3) at Baltimore

Maybe its because Baltimore has literally trailed for only :14 seconds this entire season(!) and are somehow 2-2, but I feel like they are the better team here.

Then again. when you blow 31-14 and 20-3 leads so easily, maybe you aren’t the 4-0 team trapped in a 2-2 body that I think you are.

The Ravens? Overrated. Biochemically no different
than eating large quantities of chocolate.

With devil's advocate thinking like this, I have no choice but to take Cincy and the points.

Ravens 26  Bengals 24

Las Vegas at Kansas City (-7.5)

Las Vegas is undoubtedly full of themselves after smashing Denver last week, but if Russell Wilson can throw for 250 yards and 2 TDs against the Raiders, then surely Pat Mahomes will have about 900 yards and 5 TDs against them.

 

I'll put my money on the team that is coming home from a back-to-back road trip to pummel a team that, had they not been gifted the Denver Broncos last week, might still be winless.

Chiefs 37  Raiders 27

Bet the Nest (Lock of the Week)

San Francisco (-6) at Carolina

Random thought not related to picking this game: Last Monday night Deebo Samuel might have scored the best, single-man effort touchdown I’ve seen since that time Marshawn Lynch stiff-armed and bitch-slapped 11 Saints defenders on his way to the Beast Quake TD in the 2011 playoffs. Either that or the Rams just proved what most of us were already thinking: it is not the Golden Age of tackling in the NFL right now.

But I digress…

Since the 49’er D has given up exactly 9 points in each of the past two weeks to Matt Stafford- and Russell Wilson-lead offenses, I can safely assume a Baker Mayfield-lead team is in deep doo doo here.

In fact, I’d bet my kid’s bike on it.

Niners 24  Panthers 6

Fox in the Hen House (Trap Game of the Week)

Chicago (+7.5) at Minnesota

The Bears are a very crappy team playing on the road for the second straight week, this time against a divisional foe who has beaten them 3 out of 4 by an average margin of 10 pts.

They’ve only scored more than 12 points one time this season and that doesn’t count because it was against the Texans.

They run an offense as conservative as the Church Lady’s wardrobe.

They couldn’t score in a 5¢ whore house with a pocket full of nickels. 

I could go on and on…

Easy, right?

 

I have been masterful at sniffing out which games are traps; but horrible in trusting myself to put my money where my mouth is. Not this time.

Chicago covers. I’m tempted to call an outright upset/win. 

Vikings 20  Bears 17

Thanks for having some droppings with your tea and crumpets! Jimmy likes the Bird Droppings!

Season Total Straight Up Winners: 40-23-1

Season Total Against the Spread:  36-28

Lock of the Week Picks: 2-2

Trap Game of the Week:  1-3