Shake It Off! The Bird’s Week 11 NFL Picks

Detroit has a two game winning streak. Buffalo has a two game losing streak. Josh Allen all of a sudden looks like Josh Rosen, Justin Fields is breaking all of Michael Vick's QB rushing records, and Colt McCoy just beat John Wolford (who?) to put the defending Super Bowl Champs in the NFC basement.

Click here: What the hell’s going on out there??

No wonder all of our picks suck lately.

Here at the nest The Bird went 5-9 ATS and did no better picking the straight up winners in Week 10, marking the worst single week I’ve had in the past two seasons.

With that kind of .350 winning percentage I now know what it feels like to be the Cincinnati Reds or one of Taylor Swift’s boyfriends for a week, and I’m not fond of being in such company.

Shake it off, Bird!

I’m still +16 Against the Spread on the season, and looking to bank a little coin while building on my 90-59-1 overall record as Week 11 kicks off.

LFG!

Bird’s Eye View 

Tennessee at Green Bay (-3.5)

Both teams got big wins last week, but Green Bay's was a cathartic rally vs. an NFC contender while Tennessee's was against the 1955 Fort Wayne Pistons.

Correlative visual of Tennessee’s offensive
opponent last week, the Denver Broncos. 

I guess, all things being equal, Tennessee won't get away with scoring just 17 points this time around. And I'll take Aaron Rodgers at home vs. Ryan Tannehill on the road every time. 

Packers 24  Titans 17

Philadelphia (-6.5) at Indianapolis

First off, I’d like to congratulate the Colts for their win last week against the Raiders. That was a game between two coaches, one of whom was completely unprepared. The other was Jeff Saturday.

That new coach smell will fade quickly though, as Philly rebounds this week.

Eagles 27  Colts 20

LA Rams (+3.5) at New Orleans

Picking this game is not for the faint of heart. Imagine asking Mr. & Mrs. Menendez who their favorite son was, and you have the right idea. 

“Neither.”

Saints 22  Rams 20

Chicago at Atlanta (-3)

As mentioned above, all of a sudden Justin Fields looks like the love child of Randal Cunningham and Michael Vick. I picked him up about 5 weeks ago in Fantasy, then immediately dropped him the following Tuesday. So of course he does. 

Then again, what good is having Randal Cunningham and Michael Vick for a mom and dad when you can’t even beat the Lions at home? 

Falcons 23  Bears 17

New York Jets (+3.5) at New England

Mac Jones has been, how shall we say, not very good. And Sauce Gardner has basically been the NFL’s version of Chick-fil-A for wide receivers; which is to say none are open on Sundays.

The Jets have a little Ralphie Parker-beats-up-Scut Farkus thing going on right now. They just punk’d the Bills and I have no doubt they want to erase 25 years of wedgies from the chowderheads too.

They may not win, but it’ll be a close divisional game. Ah, what the hell, this is Ralphie Freakin’ Parker we’re talking about!

Jets 23  Patriots 20  OT

Carolina at Baltimore (-13)

This is a line so high Baker Mayfield can’t even see over it.

Tiny baker. Big challenge. 

In a weather game pitting two run-heavy teams you normally take the points, the under, and a nap. But Lamar Jackson is straight cooking right now and Baker Mayfield is straight… bakering. 

I gotta go Baltimore big here.

Ravens 29  Panthers 13

Cleveland (+8.5) at Buffalo

Urgency, refocus, and what would have been 3 feet of snow should have all been at play here for Buffalo. Instead, the game gets moved to Detroit and now we’re all deprived of seeing fat, shirtless men in a blizzard yelling things.

Edge: Cleveland.

Bills 21  Browns 16

Las Vegas (+2.5) at Denver

The only thing clear about these two teams is that they unfortunately are not playing the Houston Texans enough. 

Both have beaten Houston. Both have lost to Indy. Denver beat Jacksonville, and the Raiders lost to Jacksonville. Raiders beat Denver. Rock beats scissors.

You can’t triple stamp a double stamp, Lloyd!
The Broncos and Raiders traveling through the 2022 season.

Since the Raiders just struggled vs. a team with a head coach who was four days into the job, and who’s never coached anything before in his life, I can only assume they’ll find easier treading against a team with an even more incapable coach than that.

History also shows they only need 17 points to be victors this day. 

Raiders 17   Broncos 16

Cincinnati (-3.5) at Pittsburgh

Cincinnati is the hottest of any of the 5-4 teams in the league; while in Pittsburgh a Minkah Fitzpatrick- and Najee Harris-less Steelers squad not fortunate enough to be playing the Saints again makes for a lukewarm feel at best.

Cincinnati is battling back from an 0-2 start to the season, in main part due to a shocking Week 1 loss at home to these very Steelers. It cost The Bird his first “Bet the Nest” loss as a matter of fact.

Well. To that I say: Revenge is a dish best served in all white unis. The Bengals go full-on albino tiger and I’ll watch this game in my Walter White tightie-whities as well.

Bengals 31  Steelers 17

Dallas (-1) at Minnesota 

Last week Minnesota snatched victory from the jaws of defeat, and Dallas snatched defeat from the jaws of victory.

This makes for a tricky diagnosis as Minnesota surely has a bit of a letdown here, right(?)… while Dallas must be eager to avenge a bad loss in a game they had all but won… right(?).

Vegas is as perplexed as I, setting this line essentially as a pk’em. One would think the home field advantage should set the 8-1 Vikes as favorites over the 6-3 ’Boys.

Not so.

Cowboys 28  Vikings 24

Kansas City at LA Chargers (+5)

As badly as the Chargers could use some Rivers-to-Gates right now, and as auto-pilot as the Chiefs are in the AFC West, the fact remains that the last 4 games between these two teams have been decided by 7 pts or less.

I don’t often look too heavily at trends, but something tells me here.

Chiefs 27  Chargers 24

San Francisco (-8) at Arizona

Seldom are the times when an entire team responds better for their backup QB than they do for the regular guy. I mean, don’t tell Drew Bledsoe that, but…

I guess all those Cardinals players really were sick of Kyler’s shit. And it showed!

That being said, did you know that a Colt McCoy led team has never lost to the 49’ers in Mexico? Yep. They are currently 0-0.

But soon to be 0-1.

Niners 30  Cardinals 20

Bet the Nest

Washington (-3) at Houston

Washington is flying high while the Texans endure another week of wondering what exactly their purpose in life is. Like Bill Murray in Groundhog Day, Houston fans roll out of bed this Sunday to live the same shit all over again.

The Houston faithful prepare for
another weekend of Texans football.

In just about every other scenario, I would guard against Washington having a let down after such a signature win last Monday night in Philly.

But not here. Not against Houston. And not in Chase Young’s return from his torn ACL. That presence alone will be motivation enough for the red helmets.

Commanders 22  Texans 17

Fox in the Hen House

Detroit (+3.5) at New York Giants

The Giants, at home, minus anything less than a touchdown against a team like the Lions feels like easy money. 

• Giants are 3rd in rushing; Lions are 31st against the run.
• Justin Fields just ran for 700 yards against the Lions.
• Saquon Barkley is a better running back than Justin Fields.
• Detroit hasn’t won back-to-back-to-back games since the Berlin Wall fell.

And yet…New York has their biggest game of the season four days after this one on Thanksgiving Day, in Dallas. Might they be “looking past” an easy home game against a crappy team?

Total trap. 

Giants 23  Lions 20

Just like those 18 points the Fort Wayne Pistons once dropped in an NBA game… and hopefully Coach Hackett come Monday…so too have you been: (Bird) Dropped!

Season Total Straight Up Winners: 90-59-1

Season Total Against the Spread:  83-67 

Lock of the Week Picks: 6-4

Trap Game of the Week:  3-7

Hallo, Deutschland!: The Bird’s Week 10 NFL Picks

Guten abend! With the NFL in Berlin this week, I figured I’d honor my old German teacher, Frau Dovas; and my college German professor, Herr Kern, with some football forecasting that resembles the work ethic and efficiency of the German people.

Which is really just fancy speak for: this week’s picks were made under the influence of Kölsch beer instead of my traditional Miller Lites and whisky. 

Dieter from SNL’s Sprockets may have also creeped into my reasonings. Lets’s dance!

My secret to handicapping efficiency.

The Bird, aka der vogel, was 8-5 against the spread and 9-4 straight up last week. Given a couple of huge upsets that NO ONE saw coming, it wasn't a bad showing at all. Still, there’s room for improvement in Week 10. Es ist zeit!

Bird’s Eye View 

Atlanta (-2.5) at Carolina

Atlanta is one helluva difficult team to figure out. Just when you think they’re decent, they suck. And just when they start to suck, they’re decent.

Carolina is basically the same, except replace “decent” with “sucks even more.”

Falcons 24  Panthers 14

Seattle (+2.5) at Tampa

If you woulda told me at any moment in time prior to last Sunday that one of these quarterbacks threw the ball 58 times and had a QB Rating of 79 in Week 9, while the other was an efficient 26-for-33 with a QBR of 110; and then told me Tom Brady was the first and Geno Smith was the latter…and then advised that both stat lines basically tell the story of this entire season…

I woulda called you a stooge.

Das ist nicht Tom Brady! Das ist eine booby!

Sadly, I think I’ve run my course of not taking Seattle seriously. That ends today, as the Seahawks have the better team, coach, and quarterback right now.

Also, it turns out Munich is fanatic about something other than Oktoberfest and women with hairy armpits. Yep. Bavaria’s capital is a big Seahawks town. Who knew? But they say this will feel like a home game for the birds.

Seahawks 23  Buccaneers 20

Denver at Tennessee (-2.5)

As I watched last Sunday’s Tennessee-KC game and saw the Titans hanging with the Chiefs despite their third string quarterback who looked as if he graduated from the Tim Tebow School of Throwing Mechanics, I couldn’t help but think how Denver would be getting destroyed in that same game even with a future Hall of Famer at the controls. 

Denver’s not on the same level as Tennessee. Unless—Unless— the Titans do something completely stupid like, oh I don’t know, stop handing Derek Henry the football?

We won’t be so lucky.

Titans 20  Broncos 15

Cleveland at Miami (-3.5)

Tua, Tyreek, and the Miami Dolphins are humming right now.

Cleveland hasn’t really hummed since the days of Bernie Kosar. And even that didn’t really turn out too well.

Dolphins 26  Browns 20

New Orleans (-1) at Pittsburgh

This is one of a few games this weekend that pit two teams who are either incapable or dysfunctional, or just generally crappy, against each other in a matchup with absolutely no impact on the conference playoff pictures unless you are a lucky resident of the NFC South.

Since the Saints are of the latter, and 6-11 just might win you a division, I’ll take them to win what is close to being a pk bet.

Also, I found the perfect headgear for watching this type of game:

Saints and Steelers fans, rest easy!
The Ostrich Head Pillow is the perfect
aid for watching this clash of non-titans.

Saints 19  Steelers 17

Detroit at Chicago (-3)

Bears 24  Lions 21

Minnesota at Buffalo (-3.5)

Now that the election deniers, democracy “savers,” senate seaters, and gubernatorials have all had their orgy of fun at our expense, Bills-Vikings is now the single biggest battle that America has its eye on this second week in November. 

Thank God.

It remains to be seen if Josh Allen’s elbow is ok, and if he ends up sidelined I am likely to edit this pick on Sunday, but for now, I’ll take the Bills minus the generous 3.5 points (which has been bought down from 6.5 with the aforementioned question mark surrounding Allen’s bum wing). Buyer beware. 

Bills 27  Vikings 21

Jacksonville at Kansas City (-9.5)

Jacksonville just won for the first time in 7 weeks, but it came against the 1976 Bucs— I mean the Las Vegas Raiders— so we can’t put much stock into it.

Kansas City should handle their business at home.

Chiefs 31  Jaguars 17

Indianapolis at Las Vegas (-4.5)

This is a matchup between the team who just fired their coach and the team who still needs to fire their coach.

Normally I’d take the points here, citing my theories that teams with interim coaches usually play inspired ball; and the Raiders can’t be trusted to beat the dust out of a floor rug right now. 

But gawd this Colts’ offense is putrid. Putrid I tells ya.

Raiders 24  Colts 14

Arizona at LA Rams (-1.5)

All I know is we’ve reached the point in the season where Kyler Murray’s Napoleon Complex is kicking in.

I wonder if Murray knows that Hopkins is better than him?

The Cardinals QB seems to always be yelling at someone, be it opposing fans, his head coach, or his star wide receiver. I can’t imagine being married to this chick.

The Rams are reeling just as bad, but at least they seem cohesive. I’ll take the home team to win by more than the 1+ spread.

Rams 31  Cardinals 28

LA Chargers at San Francisco (-7)

If the Bolts have to navigate against this defense without Keenan Allen and Mike Williams, it is not going to go as well as it did last week vs. Atlanta.

San Fran has had two weeks to rest, prepare, and further indoctrinate Christian McCaffrey into the game plan.

It seems like a lot to give for what feels like a shootout type of game, but I’ll lean on the Niners to win by more than a touch.

49’ers 33   Chargers 24

Washington (+11) at Philadelphia

Okay, so the Eagles are 8-0. But they cost me a “Bet the Nest” pick last week and their baseball brethren also screwed me on some World Series stuff. 

So, to those fans who boo Santa Claus, cancer-stricken children, and Cowboys players laying paralyzed at midfield… allow me to point out:

• Philly's 8 wins are against: 1) the 2-6 Lions, 2) Kirk Cousins in prime time, 3) Carson Wentz, 4) Jacksonville, 5) Arizona without Deandre Hopkins, 6) Dallas without Dak, 7) the armpit of Pennsylvania Steelers, and 8) the 1-win Houston Texans.

So there. You guys actually kinda suck. I'll take Washington to cover here.

Eagles 30  Commanders 20

Bet the Nest

Houston at New York Giants (-5.5)

The G-Men return home after a humbling defeat in Seattle; Houston stays on the road after sucking butt in Philly. As a general rule in life, being humbled is always better than sucking butt.

Pick New York and sleep well.

Giants 23  Texans 9

Fox in the Hen House

Dallas (-5) at Green Bay 

Detroit just found out how rewarding it is to play against nature's fastest wilting flower: the Green Bay Packers. 

I’m not sure at what point the cheeseheads plug in Jordan Love and prep for their future, but it feels like the time is near.

Having said all that, this game feels like a total trap. I’m nervous laying the 5 points, but the eye test tells me Dallas should roll here. Clearly, though…

Cowboys 27  Packers 20

And just like that, now iz zee time on zer bloggin’ ven vee dance! 

Dieter Sprocket doing the Griddy.

You’ve been Bird Dropped! Auf wiedersehen!

Season Total Straight Up Winners: 84-51-1

Season Total Against the Spread:  78-58

Lock of the Week Picks: 5-4

Trap Game of the Week:  3-6

Prayer Candles, Up! The Bird’s Week 9 Picks

Before we get started, prayers up for an NFL Legend on this day. Father (hang) Time finally caught up to the only punter ever drafted in the 1st Round, and the only full-time one to be enshrined in the Hall of Fame. I remember him vividly from the days of my youth while attending Raider-hating summer camps my parents put me through. 

Rest In Peace, Ray Guy. I don’t say this about many Raiders, but you sir were one of my faves.

The best ever.

Now then, the Week 9 Bird Droppings. But first, a look back on Week 8:

In the shadows of Wembley Stadium, the Broncos avoided relegation last weekend, leaving such demotions for those losers from Norwich City. And Matt Ryan.

Thank God I lit that prayer candle.

It's working!

So while I’m still thinking I’d rather watch the World Cup at this point, our heroes in Orange get a much-needed win and are no worse off than such preseason hopefuls as the Packers, Bucs or the defending champ Rams.

If only we were in the NFC South, we’d be talking about a division title.

Speaking of the NFC South…

And now, a 60-second spout-off of all the stupid things that we witnessed in Week 8. *deep inhale*… The Falcons and Panthers managed the last few minutes of regulation and OT like a couple of bumbling idiots that literally almost resulted in a 4-way tie for first place in the South, where 3-5 records rule the day… Justin Fields is the latest bonehead player to not understand that an opposing player with the ball must be touched in order to be down… and kudos to Micah Parsons on the same play for getting up and running for a touchdown; because there are an equal amount of morons in pads who would have fallen on that fumble and laid there planning their sideline celebration, having never dawned on them that they weren’t down… Taunting in the NFL (eye rolls, please). In a sport where grown men hit, tackle, and crush each other while inflicting physical pain, it’s 15 yards and a potential ejection for hurting someone’s feelings… Speaking of hurt feelings: I see you, Raiders… Did anyone else see the ref in Seattle call a penalty on the “Seattle Mariners?” I don’t know what the hell is going on anymore, but I’m pretty sure Lou Piniella was ready to argue it… And finally, in a league where “young QBs” are making Tim Tebow look like Joe Montana at an alarming rate (Zach Wilson, Mac Jones, Davis Mills, Kenny Pickett, Malik Willis, PJ Walker, Justin Fields, Trevor Lawrence, and Indianapolis’s very own Sam Ehlinger), Matt Ryan is seriously not even suited up on the sidelines as a backup option for the latter? We all know he got “benched” so Jim Irsay could get his jollies with his new Longhorn signal caller, but dude isn’t even in uniform now??

All of a sudden I hear The Pointer Sisters for some reason. 

Click this link to see: Fields Jumps Parsons

The Bird had a bounce-back weekend last week, and both the straight up picks and the picks against the spread are well in the black. Let’s keep it going…

(PS- several teams are on their bye this week, including the Broncos, who’s offense will be resting from that 21-pt outburst that surely drained them of all their powers.)

Let us make like Justin Fields and jump (for my love) into Week 9:

Bird’s Eye View 

Minnesota at Washington (+3.5)

Taylor Heinicke is one of the few “young QBs” I did not mention in my rant above, mainly because he is not playing like a twat. In fact, quite the opposite. T.H. appears to have a winning touch and his teammates are yet again believing in his every move. This kinda makes him like Jesus. Or Tim Tebow. 

All of that being said however, this is Kirk Cousins' "revenge game," and even though Minnesota feels paper tiger-ish to me, I always like a good retribution.

Minnesota wins but Washington covers.

Vikings 24  Commanders 21  

Carolina at Cincinnati (-7.5)

After laying a prime time egg by the lake last Monday night, I can’t fathom Cincy doing anything less than what the Oregon Ducks are going to do to my beloved CU Buffaloes this Saturday.

Bengals 34  Panthers 13

Buffalo (-12.5) at New York Jets

A wise man from the mean streets of North Alamosa once told me, "Son, don't ever bet on crappy teams to beat good ones." And because Zach Wilson's name was mentioned above, I don’t think New York stands a chance at covering the spread.

Bills 31  Jets 13

Indianapolis at New England (-4.5)

Bill Belichick surpassed George Halas last weekend and now sets his sights on Don Shula’s spot as the NFL’s all time winningest head coach.

In typical style, Bill was elated:

Danny DeVito and Bill Belichick reflect on Bill
becoming the 2nd winningest coach in NFL history.

I can’t get on board with the Indianapolis Colts right now, what with their bizarre handling of Matt Ryan and complete mis-use of Jonathan Taylor and all.

To think there’s a team with a more fu-k’d up quarterback room than New England’s, is reason enough to stay away from the horseshoes here.

Patriots 23  Colts 15

Las Vegas (-1.5) at Jacksonville

I feel like if judges could hand out punishment in the form of watching tv on Sundays, this would be it.

I mean, last Sunday the Raiders failed to cross midfield in New Orleans, while the Jaguars couldn’t keep up with that offensive juggernaut known as the Denver Broncos.

Criminy.

I'll begrudgingly take the Silver & Black here, mainly because they didn’t fly back from Greenwich Mean Time in the same week that we also set our clocks back. This has to matter somehow.

Raiders 29  Jaguars 20

Miami at Chicago (+4.5)

Chicago really does just seem to be poorly lead and basically pretty shitty. And to top it off now they’re dressing like Reece’s Pieces wrappers. For shame. That being said, the only thing uglier than all of that may be the weather in Chicago this weekend, and because of that I'll take the points.

Dolphins 23  Bears 22

Green Bay (-3.5) at Detroit

I don’t see Detroit winning, much less keeping it within a field goal against a desperate and embarrassed Packer team hanging on to their season by a thread. Come to think of it, I don't see Detroit winning, much less keeping it within a field goal... ever.

Packers 24  Lions 14

LA Chargers (-3) at Atlanta

Two weeks ago I would have jumped all over the three-game-winning-streak and suddenly surging Chargers here.

Then Seattle went into LA and laid the wood to the Bolts in an impressive showing that resembled that ambush Colonel Custer fell to at the Battle of Little Big Horn.

And now, to further complicate matters, Atlanta all of a sudden looks like a team of Andy Warhols who stumble serendipitously into wins you never saw coming. 

Sigh. 

This is another Rosie O’Donnell at a salad bar game. Avoid it. But since I have to pick, gimme the Chargers coming off an extra week to prepare I guess. 

Chargers 30  Falcons 24

LA Rams (+3.5) at Tampa Bay

All I know is whoever loses this game is gonna be sweating like Roger Ebert.

Someone’s gonna be on a big thumbs down by Sunday night.

I honestly don’t know which team pulls this one out in what has otherwise been disastrous seasons for both.

Cooper Kupp’s injury definitely plays a big role, and I suppose since they are the road team there is disadvantage for LA in having to fly across country and play in front of a loud and rowdy opposing crowd. Then again, the Rams are used to playing in front of loud and rowdy opposing crowds even when at home. So that's a wash.

Feels like a field goal game, therefore I’ll take the Rams plus the points. But I think Tampa Bay eeks out the win.

Buccaneers 24  Rams 21

Tennessee (+12.5) at Kansas City

Total trap game here for Tennessee as the Titans must be careful not to look ahead to next week’s huge game against Denver.

If Ryan Tannehill plays I might consider picking the visitors to entertain us with an upset. Then again, even if he does, he sucks. Derek Henry does not suck, however, and right now he is in full King Henry mode. It will be enough for Tennessee to keep it within the spread.

Chiefs 31  Titans 23

Baltimore (-2.5) at New Orleans

Too much inconsistency from the Saints this year. And since they looked downright dominant last week, surely they are due to look like imbeciles this week.  

Gimme Lamar Jackson coming off a mini bye week all day here.

Ravens 27  Saints 16

Bet the Nest

Philadelphia (-13.5) at Houston

Sure, that’s a lot of points.

But of all the teams this season who failed to successfully cover a huge number as favorites, it has been to opponents who have capable offenses lead by quarterbacks who can drive for backdoor points late in blowout games (see: Rodgers, Aaron last week in Buffalo).

Davis Mills is not Rodgers *comma* Aaron, and will not lead the Texans to a backdoor cover.

This one was over the minute the plane landed, and the fans in attendance will be watching the other Houston-Philly game anyway: Series tied, 2-2.

Eagles 37  Texans 13

Fox in the Hen House

Seattle at Arizona (-2)

By now everyone with an internet connection knows that the Geno Smith Seahawks are leading the NFL in inspiring wins, feel good stories, and Russell Wilson memes. Their Week 8 win over America’s other upstart darlings, the Giants, has even further solidified the Sea Chickens as pro football’s chic pick every Sunday. They score, they protect the football, and they force turnovers on D. Not to mention, they just beat the Cardinals two weeks ago.

So why aren't they favored?

Cardinals 26  Seahawks 21

And there you have them. The Week 9 Picks. With a 5.6 sec hang time, bird dropped into the coffin corner. RIP Ray.

Season Total Straight Up Winners: 75-47-1

Season Total Against the Spread:  70-53

Lock of the Week Picks: 5-3

Trap Game of the Week:  3-5

Serenity Now! The Bird's Week 8 NFL Picks

Serenity now! We are dangerously close to one of those “What Would Costanza Do?” issues, where The Bird deploys a stratagem of picking the exact opposite of what I think might happen because that seems to be the way of NFL karma lately.

An anemic Chicago offense hanging 40 on the Patriots in Foxboro? Aaron Rodgers being outplayed by Zach Wilson and Taylor Heinicke? A Tom Brady team falling from grace like a blind roofer?

Stop the madness!

We’re one more whacky week away from a kale shake cleanse to shock the system back into favored results, but for now we’ll just monitor the situation. My picks are suffering, but not totally. Yet…

On with Week 8!

Bird’s Eye View 

Baltimore (-1.5) at Tampa Bay

Tom Brady hasn’t been on a 3-4 team in twenty years. Which means he hasn’t been on a 3-5 team in at least just as long. Welp, he won’t be able to say that come Monday.

A lot of talk this week about how “exhausted” TB12 looks. As noted in last week’s blog: I agree.

Ravens 24  Buccaneers 17

Denver at Jacksonville (-2.5)

I’m still trying to fathom having a defense that has given up just 7 touchdowns in 7 weeks… and being 2-5.

Did you know… In six of their seven games the Denver Broncos have scored 16 points or less. Now consider that if they had just scored 18 points in those games… they would be 6-1 right now. Ouch.

Enjoy the soccer match, England.

Jaguars 15  Broncos 12

Arizona at Minnesota (-3.5)

In the “Game I’ve Given Almost Zero Thought To, However I Have a Strong Feel About” game of the week, I like Minnie here. Skol.

Vikings 31  Cardinals 27

Miami (-3) at Detroit

High up on the side of a mountain called "We Can’t Keep Sucking Forever, Right?” we have two climbers sharing a ledge. One is repelling down; the other climbing. Miami wins and covers. 

Dolphins 29  Lions 18

Chicago (+9.5) at Dallas

Ten points is a lot to give until you remember you’re giving them to the Bears. Well, that’s what I would have said a week ago.

Then Chicago pulls that crap last Monday and completely has everyone scratching their head.

Gimme a beat! The Bears have earned 
at least 9 1/2 points of respect.

Because they just bitch-slapped the Patriots in a way that Ditka would be proud of, I suppose the Janet Jackson “What have you done for me lately” theory applies. Pair that with Zeke Elliot’s bad knee, and I’ll take da Bears to cover as road dogs. They won’t win though.

Cowboys 26  Bears 17

Las Vegas (-1.5) at New Orleans

I’m going to go out on a limb and predict Andy Dalton only throws three interceptions this week. Still too many.

Raiders 27  Saints 23

Carolina (+4.5) at Atlanta

Within the fire sale trades and their interim head coaching situation, Carolina added to the chaos last week with a surprise shellacking of Tampa Bay that no one saw coming.

I think they have officially crossed over into “these guys are so shitty, no one wants to play them” territory.

Falcons 25  Panthers 21

New England (-2.5) at New York Jets

I don't want to alarm anyone, but it's Week 8 and the Jets have the second best record in the AFC.

The last time the Jets looked this good was
that time Broadway Joe was throwing moon balls
to Bobby Brady in Mike and Carol’s backyard.

I don’t like the fact that New York’s undefeated October has come with wins against the hapless Steelers, the trauma-ward Dolphins, the kooky Packers and the CU Buffs— I mean, the Broncos— but at some point you have to give credit where credit is due and recognize 4 wins in a row is 4 wins in a row and you should never apologize for the schedule makers.

That being said, they lost their two best offensive players last week, and they play a pissed off Belichick this week.

Pats rebound.

Patriots 23  Jets 20

Pittsburgh at Philadelphia (-10.5)

Try as they might with a rookie QB and injuries all over the place, Pittsburgh is in a really bad spot here.

It’s the second game of a back-to-back road trip, against the league’s best team coming off their bye, in a city that is punch-drunk on undefeated football and World Series baseball.

It won’t quite be Rocky-Clubber Lang, or even Thunderlips for that matter. But I could definitely see this being a Glass Joe kinda night for the visitors.

Green Corner wins with a knockout.

Eagles 34  Steelers 17

New York Giants (+3) at Seattle

Don't look now, but the Giants and Seahawks are putting together surprisingly remarkable seasons. With Daniel Jones and Geno Smith, no less.

I’ve found the G-Men to be very very good as underdogs this season, so I will continue to bleed blue whenever getting points with these guys.

As for picking a straight up winner:  *throws dart*

Giants 20  Seahawks 17  OT

San Francisco (-1.5) at LA Rams

What we've learned from Buffalo, San Fran, and Dallas in the past 2 months, is if you punch the defending champs in the mouth they will fold faster than Super Man on laundry day.

The Rams have not put up much of a fight
when challenged by the big dogs this season.

The last time these two met, it was less Tyson-Holyfield and more Tyson-McNeely. I like the gold diggers to get the season sweep of their NFC West rivals.

49’ers 24  Rams 21

Washington (+3) at Indianapolis

How do we celebrate the long-anticipated Carson Wentz vs. Matt Ryan Bowl?

With Taylor Heinicke and Sam Ehlinger of course!

Because Colts QB’s making their first start are 1-15 since 1970, I’ll go with the trend and pick Sam Ehlinger to lose. Which means Washington covers. But I don’t like this game, and if I were asked to bet on it, I’d make like Rosie O’Donnell at a salad bar and avoid it altogether.

Commanders 19  Colts 17

Cincinnati (-3) at Cleveland

In at least two counties and a few bars, this game is still known in Ohio as the "You Don’t Live in Cleveland!” game.

Click here to relive the greatest P.A. Announcement ever

Hard to go against the guys who don’t live in Cleveland right now, although I just heard Ja’Mar Chase is out for 4-6 weeks. Ugh. 

Bengals 27  Browns 23

Bet the Nest

Green Bay at Buffalo (-10.5)

I cannot be convinced to take anyone against Buffalo at this point, unless the spread is at least double digits and the underdog is allowed to schedule Tanya Harding's crow bar guy for a little pregame warm up with Josh Allen.

I’m going to assume the latter was not arranged.

For the second week in a row I am picking a double-digit favorite and calling them a lock. And for the second week in a row I am right.

Bills 37  Packers 20

Fox in the Hen House

Tennessee (-2.5) at Houston

Normally I would take Tennessee on the fact alone that they are 4-0 when they play mediocre-to-slightly-bad teams. Then I remembered that Houston is getting stomped by mediocre and slightly bad teams.

Nothing to contemplate here, except… why is the line only two and a half points???

Oh wait, I know:

It’s a Trap!

Titans 24  Texans 13

🔔 Ding! Ding! Ding! 🔔   Round 8!

Season Total Straight Up Winners: 64-43-1

Season Total Against the Spread:  60-48

Lock of the Week Picks: 5-2

Trap Game of the Week:  2-5

Sh*t Happens, Man: A Russell Wilson Soliloquy & The Bird’s Week 7 Picks

What's the old saying? You can put lipstick on a pig, but at the end of the day Russell Wilson is still your quarterback?

Egads. I have so much to say here and yet, I don’t even want to. Ok, since you asked…

My general assessment, from an admitted “untrained eye,” is that DangerRuss, quite frankly, is done. And not for the reasons you would think.

In my opinion Russ Wilson is done because football no longer seems to be his priority. It’s been in front of our eyes since last April yet only now is it blatantly obvious. The social events, the commercials, the spur-of-the-moment trips to other states to surprise Ciara at her social events, the personal camera crew that follows him around, the charity functions, the Trump-like obsession with daily social media postings…

This guy is simply too involved in too many things for football to ever be the 100%, unequivocal priority. Which in many instances, doesn’t matter. But when you’re a $250 million dollar face-of-the-franchise organizational leader, it does.

Look. There’s no way an 11-year vet, Super Bowl champ and 9x Pro Bowler, should be this far behind in grasping an offense he was handed the owner’s manual to six months ago. Missed wide receivers streaking towards green pastures with everything but a ball in their hands. Non-Audibles when it is clear the current play is matched up against disaster. Check downs and misreads. Let’s ride hide.

RW3 simply isn’t eating, drinking, and sleeping football anymore, and hasn’t been since he got here. Maybe since even before he got here. 

Say what you will about crappy coaching and remedial play calling, this is the only thing that makes any logical sense to me. Because normally, quarterbacks of this caliber can hide those other things. Instead, Nathaniel Hackett looks more like Buddy Hackett because his quarterback is the guy at the talent show spinning plates.

RUSSELL WILSON HAS A LOT GOING ON
Oopsie. Almost lost the season there…Caught it!
 Let’s Ride promotional video: get back up there ya rascal!
Uh-oh, flight to LA to kiss Ciara on tv almost fell!
Get Well card for Garret Bowles, I’m comin’!

I dunno. Maybe it’s a stage-of-life thing. AT&T knows I don’t put as much relentless effort into my job as I did twelve years ago. And neither, it seems, does Mr. Unlimited.

Today’s young stars (Mahomes, Josh Allen, Joe Burrow, e.g.) exude a 24/7 passion and hunger—nay, obsession— for the game they play; Wilson, Rodgers and even the almighty Tom Brady used to as well. But now they seem distracted. Football is no longer the be-all, end-all in life. And maybe that’s the arc of life itself for quarterbacks (and telecommunication managers).

Tom Brady said it best to reporters this summer when he took an unexplained absence from Tampa’s preseason; an absence that we can now deduce was to care for personal matters at home: “I’m 45 years old, man. Shit’s happening.”

Unfortunately, for those of us with aging quarterbacks who once winged spirals with tameless hunger for records and rings, shit is indeed happening. Shit besides football. And it’s happening for the next 6 years in Broncos Country, so help us all. 

Anyway, Let’s keep riding, I guess… 

Last week Bird Droppings, Inc. shit the bed magnificently, going 5-9 straight up, and sullying my overall ATS record with a 6-8 mark betting the line. Hell, it’s almost as if I’m not eating, drinking, and sleeping my picks anymore! “Shit’s happening, man.” 

Sigh. Russell, Russell, Russell.

If you’ve read this far, perhaps you’d like to see some picks? And if not, that’s ok. Every other thought is about the plight of my Denver Broncos anyway. So the analysis is lacking.

Bird’s Eye View 

New Orleans at Arizona (-2.5)

I’ll take Arizona with a confidence level of “because they don’t employ Andy Dalton, who is 0-11 in his last 11 Prime Time starts.”

Cardinals 23  Saints 20

Was Melvin Gordon seriously crying on the sidelines Monday night? Well, at least he didn’t fumble.

Indianapolis at Tennessee (-2.5)

Since the Bills are on their bye week, we’ve come to the one game all season where I am forced to start the fantasy football QB on my roster who is not named Josh Allen. Oh, the horror.

Due to this, Matt Ryan (yep, my FFL guy this week) is all but guaranteed to smoke a turd on Sunday.

Titans 20  Colts 16

Wilson had minus -9 passing yards after halftime??

 

New York Giants (+3) at Jacksonville

Who would have imagined this being a completely viable matchup at this point in the season? I’ll really like the Giants getting points here, and on the heels of Saquon Barkley I’ll go ahead and pick them to win the Tom Coughlin Cup (which shouldn’t be confused for Tom Coughlin’s cup).

Giants 23  Jaguars 22

1st & 10: Latavius Murray for 5 yards. 2nd & 5: Murray for 4.5 yards. 3rd & < 1: Shotgun, spread it out & throw 13 yards downfield into the dirt. SMH.

Green Bay (-4.5) at Washington

No former Jeopardy host has ever lost consecutive games to Daniel Jones, Zach Wilson, and Taylor Heinicke, have they?

What is, “No?”

Packers 27  Commanders 17

Pass interference. Defense, Number 27. Ball will placed at the spot of the foul. First down! 

Detroit at Dallas (-7)

Any squad that allows 29 points and scores none of their own against a team with a rookie QB named Bailey Zappe making his first ever start can only be classified as God Awful. And that’s our Detroit Lions.

Dallas gets a shot in the arm this week offensively. Call it a Dakccination.

Cowboys 27  Lions 17

Did the Donkeys seriously just lose to a team who kicked 4 field goals with a kicker whose hamstring was rolled up like a snap bracelet?

Dustin Hopkins’ hammy demonstration.

Atlanta at Cincinnati (-6)

I’ll take Joe Burrow here for all the things I said above about dudes who are consumed with being the best damn quarterback they can be.

Bengals 31  Falcons 23

With 2:14 left in the game last Monday, Wilson was sacked on a blitz almost as soon as the ball hit his hands. The Chargers didn’t even try to disguise it. It all happened in less than 2 seconds and had a visual effect as if LA sent twenty men the moment the ball was snapped. HOW does a veteran QB with Russ’s experience NOT see that coming pre-snap, and audible out of the play?

Cleveland at Baltimore (-6)

Aw, the annual Art Model Bowl (which shouldn’t be confused for the Tom Coughlin Cup).

Cleveland looks every part like a team on the brink of folding it up for the 31st time in 32 years. 

And Baltimore? Well, as far as big leads are concerned, the Ravens blow them like a hooker at a bubblegum convention.

The Ravens lost each of these games 👆
otherwise they might be 6-0.

If they’re smart, Baltimore will keep it close or perhaps even let their opponent rush out to a 4th quarter lead this time. That way, they won’t have to worry about crapping themselves down the stretch.

Ravens 29  Browns 22

Still pondering that last Russell Wilson thought. Can we get an “Omaha!” or any kind of pre-snap audible there? A timeout even?

Tampa Bay at Carolina (+10.5)

Tom Brady may have shit going on, and trust me when I say impending divorce is a big concentration breaker… but this is Carolina and TB12 is coming off that embarrassing loss to Kenny Pickett and an atrocious Steelers team.

Bucs win, but last week I swore off of betting Tampa to cover anything over 8 points ever again for as long as I shall live.

Buccaneers 22  Panthers 13

So long as Denver’s offense keeps doing that thing they do, which is Nothing, I’d kill for a Kenny Pickett.

New York Jets at Denver (-1.5)

Here I’ve been making fun of Zach Wilson all season when reality is, he’s made it further than Sam Darnold, Joe Flacco, Mark Sanchez, and even Chester Copperpot to leading the Goonies to One-Eyed Willie’s treasure.

This is our time! Our time, down here.

If a ragtag bunch of youngins from Astoria can go into Lambeau and lay it on Rodgers and the Pack, then they can most assuredly go into Denver and be better than Wilson and the Broncos.

Against my better judgement (what’s new?), I’m going to pick Denver one last time to win, but it’ll be uglier than Mama Fratelli. Jets cover.

Broncos 17  Jets 15

Not to beat a tired drum, but watch the QB’s in this one. Which one is “at work” for the 12th straight year on a Sunday and has a “thing” to attend to later with the Mrs., plus a jersey signing and three Twitter accounts to update before Monday?

Seattle at LA Chargers (-5)

LA kickstarted their season last week and has a bye after this. All incentives for moving to 5-2 and setting up a second half run at the playoffs.

Chargers 30  Seahawks 20

Melvin Gordon plays only 9 snaps last week and essentially gets benched mid-game. He spends the wee hours of that night tweeting all over social media his desire to get out of Denver. Coach Hackett meets with Mr. Disgruntled on Wednesday and announces Melvin Gordon will start on Sunday. What the hell?

Kansas City at San Francisco (+3)

Don’t look now but the Chiefs are in a tight spot on their schedule. Out of sheer hatred for other AFC West teams I’m gonna lean toward San Fran’s defense at home, coming off an embarrassing loss to Atlanta, and Kansas City’s growing tendency to look like normal human beings at times this season. 

Niners cover as home dogs. I’m gonna will my desire that they pull off the upset altogether.

49’ers 24  Chiefs 23

Coach Hackett. 🙄

Pittsburgh at Miami (-6.5)

For a moment there this season the Dolphins were interesting and sexy. Now they are slightly less interesting and the exact opposite of sexy.

This kind of makes them like Kelly McGillis.

Left: Miami with Tua Tagovailoa. 
Right: Miami without Tua Tagovailoa.

Since Tua is back, I’ll go with sexy Miami.

Dolphins 23  Steelers 16

Chicago at New England (-8)

One team has rattled off three wins in a row by an accumulated score of 67-15. Their only loss in the past month was on the road to a respectable opponent on the day we all learned who Bailey Zappe is.

 

The other team is 2-4 and coming off a 12-7 loss to those juggernauts, the Washington Commanders.

Seems like easy math here.

Patriots 31  Bears 20

Bet the Nest 🔒

Houston at Las Vegas (-7)

If Las Vegas enjoyed trying to keep up with that fireworks show known as "Chiefs Football" in the Arrowhead night two weeks ago, imagine how much fun will be had playing with sparklers (Davis Mills & Co.) in the Nevada desert. Probably a lot.

Raiders 27  Texans 7

Fox in the Hen House 🪤

I keep looking at several of these games and more than a couple of spreads feel trappy. Since it is almost time to publish and I can’t make up my mind, I’m just gonna go with my gut and refer you all to my Jets-Broncos pick above.

Why on earth is the team with the all of the troubles documented in this blog —from overwhelmed quarterbacks to crying running backs, and everything inbetween— favored against an upstart team of young fire and energy and who just throttled Green Bay in Green Bay?

I’ll tell ya why. It’s a booty trap!

Holy Mary, Mother of God. There they are. The Week 7 Droppings! 

Season Total Straight Up Winners: 56-37-1

Season Total Against the Spread:  51-43

Lock of the Week Picks: 4-2

Trap Game of the Week:  2-4

Whaddya say, coach?